周期、制造多主题走出主升形态 团队成员 策 略 研 究 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 周期、制造多主题走出主升形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 0、3、25、0 只。其中，3 只突破形态的主题指数， 行业为有色金属、公用事业。25 只主升形态的主题指数，行业主要为机械 设备、电子、军工。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度有所回暖，对应龙头股收盘价高 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回升至 80%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jianghai Securities has launched the "Zuhoujia" APP, positioning it as an online securities brokerage and wealth management platform focused on actively managed thematic investments, targeting a new generation of investors who are keen on fresh trends and hot topics [1]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Investors face five main challenges in thematic investing: difficulty in discovering potential themes, understanding complex themes, selecting quality stocks, tracking rapidly changing themes, and constructing risk-controlled thematic portfolios due to fragmented traditional tools [3][4]. Group 2: APP Features - The "Zuhoujia" APP aims to empower users with the philosophy of "Everyone is an Asset Manager," integrating powerful thematic investment information services from Caixin and professional research and advisory support from Jianghai Securities, facilitating a seamless process from research to decision-making, trading, and management [3][4]. - The APP features an AI-driven thematic engine that scans news, research reports, policies, and social sentiment in real-time to identify and evaluate emerging themes, providing users with timely and authoritative information [3]. - It offers comprehensive data integration capabilities, allowing for a panoramic view of financial data, macroeconomic trends, industry dynamics, and company news, enhancing the decision-making process [4]. - The APP simplifies stock selection and portfolio configuration through tools like "Gold Medal Research Selection," which analyzes institutional perspectives to significantly reduce research time [5][6]. - The user experience is prioritized with a minimalist design that focuses on core functionalities, making it accessible for both novice and experienced traders [13]. Group 3: Future Developments - The future roadmap for the "Zuhoujia" APP includes deepening AI capabilities, enhancing intelligent decision support, and developing features for natural language interaction to filter stocks based on specific criteria, as well as real-time financial report analysis [14].

Core Viewpoint - Jianghai Securities has launched the "Portfolio Home" APP, positioning it as an online securities brokerage and wealth management platform aimed at actively managing thematic investments for a new generation of investors who are keen on fresh trends and hot topics [1]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Investors face five main challenges in thematic investing: difficulty in discovering potential themes, understanding complex themes, selecting quality stocks, tracking rapidly changing themes, and constructing risk-controlled thematic portfolios due to fragmented traditional tools [3][4]. Group 2: APP Features - The "Portfolio Home" APP is designed with the philosophy that "everyone is an asset manager," integrating powerful thematic investment information services from CaiLianShe and professional research and advisory support from Jianghai Securities to streamline the entire investment process from research to decision-making to trading [3]. - The APP offers four core advantages: 1. An AI theme engine that scans news, research reports, policies, and social sentiment to identify and evaluate emerging themes [3]. 2. Comprehensive data integration that provides a panoramic view of financial data, macroeconomic trends, industry dynamics, and company news for informed decision-making [4]. 3. Intelligent tools that simplify stock selection and portfolio configuration [5]. 4. A user-centric experience with a minimalist design that focuses on core functionalities, making it easy for all types of investors to use [10]. Group 3: Future Developments - The future roadmap for the "Portfolio Home" APP includes deepening AI capabilities, enhancing intelligent decision support, and developing features for natural language interaction to filter stocks based on specific criteria, as well as providing intelligent portfolio diagnostics and recommendations based on user preferences [10].

Core Viewpoint - Jianghai Securities has launched the "Zujia" APP, designed for a new generation of investors interested in thematic investments, aiming to reconstruct the thematic investment ecosystem through intelligent solutions [1][3]. Investment Challenges - Investors face five main challenges in thematic investing: difficulty in discovering potential themes, understanding complex themes, selecting leading stocks, tracking rapidly changing themes, and constructing risk-controlled portfolios due to fragmented traditional tools [3][4]. APP Features - The "Zujia" APP promotes the concept that "everyone is an asset manager," integrating comprehensive data services, professional research, and community support to streamline the investment process from research to decision-making to management [3][10]. - The APP offers four core advantages: 1. Comprehensive data integration for informed decision-making, utilizing a large model to gather real-time financial data, macroeconomic insights, industry dynamics, and company news [3][10]. 2. Intelligent tools that simplify stock selection and portfolio configuration, including features like "Gold Medal Research Selection" to reduce research time [4][10]. 3. User-centric design focusing on core functionalities to enhance user experience, catering to both novice and experienced investors [10]. 4. Future enhancements will include AI-driven features for intelligent stock selection and decision support, enabling users to generate personalized investment suggestions based on their risk preferences [10].

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are emerging as a stable investment choice amidst the rapid rotation of market themes, providing a safe haven for funds when other hotspots are absent [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The A-share market is currently exhibiting a dual-style characteristic, with thematic investments leading to rapid intra-day sector rotations while high dividend sectors like banks and utilities attract long-term capital [1][2] - High dividend stocks have shown their substitute value during market volatility, as funds quickly flow into blue-chip stocks with dividend yields exceeding 5% when thematic investments face collective pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Regulatory Context - In the context of macroeconomic transformation, high dividend companies often operate in monopolistic industries or possess stable consumer attributes, leading to strong cash flow predictability [2] - The implementation of the registration system is shifting the A-share market from growth premium to value discovery, aligning high dividend strategies with ESG investment principles, which are favored by international capital [2] Group 3: Future Trends - The development of high dividend stocks is expected to follow three major trends: expansion from traditional sectors to stable cash flow industries like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, the integration of dividend yield with other valuation metrics, and the growth of financial derivatives that enhance the efficiency of capital utilization [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **machinery industry**, with specific focus on **motorcycles**, **engineering machinery**, and **oil services**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Strategy for Second Half**: The company has developed a strategy for the second half of the year, focusing on a theme called "Value Vito," which emphasizes strong thematic directions rather than pure growth [1] 2. **Performance of Motorcycle Industry**: The motorcycle sector, led by companies like Chunfeng and Longxin, has shown significant price increases, outperforming other sectors such as machine tools [2] 3. **Engineering Machinery Growth**: The median growth rate for engineering machinery in the first half of the year was 7%, indicating a solid performance, although it did not significantly exceed the index [3] 4. **Sources of Excess Returns**: The excess returns in the machinery sector are attributed to two main factors: rapid industry growth and significant thematic catalysts [4] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Key sectors recommended for investment include motorcycles, oil services, and engineering machinery, with a note that achieving accelerated growth in the second half may be challenging [5][6] 6. **Domestic vs. Export Growth**: Domestic growth rates are expected to be between 5% to 10%, while export growth may exceed 10%, indicating a more favorable outlook for exports [6] 7. **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The issuance of local government bonds and subsidies is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, with a total subsidy of 300 billion expected for the year [7] 8. **Motorcycle Export Outlook**: The motorcycle export market is anticipated to accelerate in the second half, particularly due to the recovery from last year's low base and the potential benefits from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [13][14] 9. **Market Share Potential**: The current market share of Chinese motorcycles in regions like Europe and Latin America is low, suggesting significant growth potential in exports [14] 10. **Oil Services Sector**: The oil services sector is expected to remain robust, driven by global economic conditions and capital expenditures related to oil prices above $60 per barrel [10][11] 11. **Engineering Machinery Valuation**: The valuation of engineering machinery companies is seen as attractive, with significant differences in market capitalization compared to their overseas counterparts [16] 12. **Profit Growth Projections**: Companies like SANY are projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates indicating a tripling of profits this year [17] 13. **Technological Advancements in Robotics**: The discussion includes advancements in robotics, particularly in humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors [22][30] 14. **Future of Solid-State Batteries**: The solid-state battery market is highlighted as a growing area, with significant technological advancements expected [33][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Domestic Growth**: The domestic machinery sector is facing challenges in achieving noticeable growth in the second half compared to the first half [6][8] 2. **Potential for Thematic Catalysts**: The importance of thematic catalysts in driving excess returns is emphasized, suggesting that investors should focus on sectors with strong thematic support [4] 3. **Long-Term Growth Potential**: The long-term growth potential in the motorcycle export market and the engineering machinery sector is noted, with specific reference to the low current market share in international markets [14][15] 4. **Valuation Comparisons**: The valuation of companies in the engineering machinery sector is compared to their historical valuations, indicating potential for upward adjustments [17][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the machinery industry.

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the beginning of 2023, the growth style has shown structural opportunities despite weak overall beta, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% in the Yangtze Growth Index[5] - The performance of growth stocks remains the core of trading, as evidenced by the outperformance of fundamental growth indices over high volatility or high beta indices, except for 2025Q2[2][5] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, focusing on quality individual stocks is preferred over thematic investments, especially with the upcoming 2025 mid-term reports[2][21] - The internal structure of the ChiNext growth stocks is heavily weighted towards TMT sectors, with the top three industries accounting for nearly 70% and the electronics sector exceeding 50%[26] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Yangtze ChiNext Growth Index has shown a year-to-date return of 51.49% as of July 31, 2025, outperforming other indices in the same period[22] - The performance of growth stocks is characterized by high volatility, necessitating precise selection during recovery phases to enhance returns[6][22] Group 4: Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for policy and liquidity risks to impact growth stock performance[10][32] - The difficulty in capturing thematic investment opportunities is noted, as high volatility and high beta styles have not consistently yielded strong returns in recent years[21][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by newly established funds in the context of high investor redemptions, leading to significant fund size reductions despite strong performance in the market [1][2][3]. Fund Redemption Issues - Many newly established funds are experiencing substantial redemptions, with some funds seeing up to 90% of their capital withdrawn, resulting in a shift from large funds to "mini funds" [4][5]. - A specific innovative drug industry fund reported a drop in assets from 47 million yuan at the end of March to 32 million yuan by the end of June, despite achieving a year-to-date return of nearly 50% [3][5]. - Another fund, which was established in late March, saw its assets decrease from over 200 million yuan to 17.52 million yuan, with over 90% of its capital redeemed [5][7]. Performance and Strategy - Despite the challenges, some funds have reported impressive returns, with certain funds in the innovative drug sector achieving returns of 136% and 110% year-to-date [8]. - The article notes that funds are increasingly diversifying their holdings, with some funds in unrelated sectors heavily investing in innovative drug stocks, leading to significant returns [8][9]. - Fund managers are advised to focus on long-term investment strategies and avoid concentrating assets in a single type of fund, especially during the performance verification period of semi-annual reports [9]. Market Outlook - There is a growing sentiment among fund managers regarding the need for a shift between high and low-performing sectors, as the current market shows signs of high concentration and potential volatility [10][11]. - Economic growth is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, leading to further performance differentiation among listed companies [11][12]. - Fund managers emphasize the importance of defensive strategies and caution against excessive risk-taking in the current market environment [12].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - In the current period, 21 thematic indices have emerged in a primary upward trend, primarily from the non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals sectors, while one index is in an accelerated phase from the electric equipment industry [12][16]. Group 2 - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 77%, with the leading stock, Changsheng Bearing, closing 23.5% above its 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][16]. - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has dropped to 81%, with the leading stock, Daily Interaction, closing 5.6% above its MA60 [3][16].

Core Insights - The article discusses the resurgence of small mutual funds in the second quarter of 2025, driven by structural market changes and thematic investments, leading to significant growth in fund sizes [1][2][3] - It highlights the trend of "mini funds" leveraging thematic and style-based investments to recover from previous struggles, with some funds experiencing dramatic increases in net asset values [2][3] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to carefully evaluate the risk-reward ratio when considering investments in these funds, despite their recent performance [1][4] Group 1 - Many small mutual funds have seen rapid growth in size and performance due to structural market conditions and thematic investments in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The article cites the example of Tongtai Fund's "Industrial Upgrade Mixed A" fund, which achieved a 20.38% return in the first half of the year, with net asset value increasing from approximately 9,887.46 yuan to about 14.5 million yuan [2][3] - Fund companies are increasingly adopting a strategy of focusing on thematic and style-based investments to enhance performance and scale, with some using "shell resources" from mini funds to capture short-term market opportunities [3][5] Group 2 - Despite the strong performance of thematic and style-based funds, there has not been a significant increase in the number of investors jumping on the bandwagon, indicating a cautious approach [4][5] - Investors are expressing concerns about the volatility associated with thematic investments, noting that while they can rise quickly, they can also decline sharply [4][5] - Fund companies are wary of heavily promoting these thematic funds due to potential customer complaints, opting instead to focus on repositioning smaller funds [5]