大摩：中国反内卷运动能否取得成功 20250812 摘要 投资者应该关注哪些里程碑或改革来评估成功或失败？ 评估这些改革成功与否应关注三个方面：广泛反映在 PPI（生产者物价指数） 和核心 CPI（消费者物价指数）上的变化，如果 PPI 上下游企稳且核心 CPI 特 别是服务业显示改善达到 2%的基准目标，这是一个鼓舞人心的信号。同时， 还需关注企业利润、就业指标及企业利润率稳定情况。如果企业获得资本回报、 银行业信用等级上升进入更高收益行业，就业及工资水平持续上升，这些都是 积极信号。此外，还需密切关注消费增长动力强劲情况，以及家庭储蓄率小幅 下降，因为社会保障体系不断完善覆盖更多外来务工人员。不过，也要注意潜 在风险，例如企业单方面大幅削减产能而未采取刺激需求措施，这可能进一步 恶化下游情况。另外还需关注外部环境的不确定性因素，如美国关税最终上调 至高于目前水平，这可能进一步放缓中国出口增速，对中国通胀形势不利。 中国房地产市场下行及供给激励体系导致内卷加剧，2025 年上半年通 缩加深，决策者对通缩陷阱的认识加深，并自 2024 年 9 月起政策转向 应对通缩，旨在反对产业升级。 当前遏制过剩产能与 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The upcoming military parade is expected to catalyze the implementation of production restrictions, leading to significant changes in the supply side of the industry [8] - Short-term production cuts in Tangshan may impact at least 1.4% of Hebei's steel output, potentially driving up steel prices and profit margins [8] - The steel industry is anticipated to return to a state of supply-demand balance, paving the way for high-quality development due to both short-term production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the military parade will lead to stringent production restrictions, similar to those seen in previous years [8] - Historical data indicates that production cuts during past parades significantly affected steel output and prices [8] Production Impact - The production cut in Tangshan is projected to affect approximately 463 million tons of steel output during the specified period [8] - The average monthly steel output in Hebei from 2015 to 2024 is noted to be around 24.62 million tons [8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the steel industry is on the verge of significant supply-side changes, which could stabilize profit margins and lead to a more favorable operating environment [8] - Long-term prospects include a focus on companies with stable dividend levels, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [8]

Investment Insights - The equity market showed an increase in risk appetite in August 2025, with significant gains in various fund indices, while the bond market experienced volatility and slight declines [2][6][7] - The performance of convertible bonds was strong, with a fund index increase of 3.22%, driven by the positive sentiment in the equity market [7] Equity Fund Strategy - The market is entering a policy vacuum and mid-year report disclosure period, necessitating a wait for guidance on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and specific industry plans to clarify long-term supply-demand relationships [12] - There is a potential for investment opportunities in high-consensus stocks and low-position sectors, as the market may continue to favor these areas amidst short-term capital efficiency pursuits [12] Fixed Income Fund Strategy - The overall bond market is expected to remain in a challenging environment until new policies are implemented or macro data shows significant reversal [3][18] - Attention should be paid to the funding situation and the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, as well as the progress of fundamental recovery to seize trading opportunities in a volatile market [3][18] Fund Performance Review - In July 2025, the equity market was buoyed by favorable policies and events, with notable performances in the healthcare and technology sectors, where the healthcare sector rose by 15.88% and technology by 8.02% [9][10] - The small-cap funds outperformed large-cap funds, with small-cap indices rising by 8.61% compared to 3.63% for large-cap indices [8] Fund Index Construction - The active equity fund selection index has shown a cumulative net value increase of 1.1889 since its inception, outperforming the active stock fund index by 15% [16] - The short-term pure bond fund index has a cumulative net value of 1.0413, with a slight outperformance over its benchmark [20] Sector Focus - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize market expectations and improve resource allocation efficiency, focusing on sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [11] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a more guided and regulatory approach, which may lead to a broader market style beyond just cyclical sectors [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 1980s, the Thatcher government in the UK and the Reagan government in the US implemented supply - side reforms to address the stagflation situation. These reforms shifted the policy focus from Keynesian demand management to supply - side and free - market economics, which affected industries such as steel and coal, leading to industry restructuring and ultimately promoting industry transformation and profitability improvement [2]. - Through "three removals, one reduction, and one supplementation" measures, including capacity reduction, inventory reduction, de - leveraging, cost reduction, and short - board supplementation, the two countries' economies recovered from stagflation and traditional industries achieved transformation and upgrading [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Reform Background in the 1970s and 1980s - **Stagflation in the UK and the US**: In the 1970s, both countries faced stagflation, with low economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment. From 1973 - 1980, the UK's GDP grew at an average annual rate of only 1.74%, inflation reached 15.2%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 10%. The US had negative GDP growth in 1974, 1975, and 1980, with inflation peaking above 14% and the unemployment rate also exceeding 10% [6]. - **Shift from Keynesian to Supply - Side Economics**: Keynesian demand - side policies failed to control unemployment and instead increased deficits and debts. The supply side faced obstacles such as large - scale losses in state - owned enterprises, frequent strikes due to union monopolies, excessive government regulations, and high marginal tax rates. The Thatcher and Reagan governments launched supply - side reforms in 1979 and 1981 respectively to revitalize the supply side and promote economic recovery [8]. - **Over - capacity and Losses in the Coal and Steel Industries**: In the late 1970s, the UK and the US entered the "de - industrialization" stage. Traditional heavy industries such as steel and machinery manufacturing were severely affected by the Middle East oil crisis and faced cost shocks. They also faced competition from Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" and needed to transform their energy structures due to environmental protection requirements [9]. 3.2 Reform Process: "Three Removals, One Reduction, and One Supplementation" - **Capacity Reduction** - **Coal Industry**: In the UK, the number of coal mines decreased from about 200 in 1980 to 65 in 1990, the number of miners dropped from about 230,000 to 49,000, and coal production decreased from 120 million tons to about 50 million tons. In the US, policies and market factors led to capacity reduction, such as the promotion of natural gas development and environmental protection requirements [17]. - **Steel Industry**: In the UK, the "Davignon Plan" and subsequent measures led to production cuts. The British Steel Corporation (BSC) was reformed, with reduced subsidies, capacity closures, and layoffs, and achieved profitability in 1986. In the US, environmental protection laws, tax reforms, and market competition led to capacity reduction, with 3800 million tons of nominal crude steel capacity withdrawn from 1983 - 1989 and 5280 million tons from 1986 - 2003 [18][19]. - **Inventory Reduction**: In the UK, Thatcher implemented the "right - to - buy" policy, selling about 140,000 public housing units from 1979 to 1987 and earning about £16 billion in revenue [20]. - **De - leveraging**: In the UK, the government reduced the government expenditure - to - GDP ratio from 43% in the early 1980s to 38% in the early 1990s and the deficit rate from 6% to 2%. In the US, the "Gramm - Rudman - Hollings Act" was passed in 1985 to control deficits [22]. - **Cost Reduction** - **UK**: The UK reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 83% in 1979 to 40% in 1988, the basic tax rate from 33% to 25%, and the corporate tax rate from 52% to 35%. - **US**: The US reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 70% in 1981 to 28% in 1986 and the corporate income tax from 46% to 34. It also carried out government institutional reforms and cut welfare spending [23]. - **Short - board Supplementation** - **UK**: The UK supported steel enterprises in mergers, acquisitions, and production layout optimization, promoting specialization and efficiency improvement. In 1988, the BSC was reorganized into specialized subsidiaries. - **US**: The SBIR program invested $2 billion annually in small - business R & D, promoting technological breakthroughs and job creation [24]. 3.3 Policy Effects - **UK Steel Industry**: From 1975 - 1988, UK steel capacity decreased by 11.87 million tons. In 1988, the number of converters decreased by 39% compared to 1975, but production increased by 35.8%. By 1986, the number of employees in the steel industry decreased by 77.4% compared to 1972. The industry achieved world - class levels in the 1990s and turned profitable [26]. - **US Coal Industry**: The concentration of coal enterprises increased, with the output share of large - scale coal enterprises rising. Production efficiency improved, the number of employees decreased, and coal exports increased. The US became a global benchmark for coal industry modernization in the 1990s [28]. - **US Steel Industry**: The industry's transformation laid the foundation for oligopolization, lightening, and high - end development in the 1990s. The CR4 of the steel industry increased from 35% in 1985 to 70% in 2000 [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the electric power equipment and new energy sector [3]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing demand front-loading, with supply-side reforms needing close observation. The report emphasizes that significant demand growth is essential for market expansion, but limited absorption capacity and mismatched demand in overseas markets complicate the situation. Policy intervention is deemed crucial for the industry's recovery [1][13]. - In the energy storage segment, demand remains robust, but market dynamics are shifting. The report expresses optimism about large-scale storage despite concerns that it may follow the path of photovoltaics. The focus is on high-quality products and integrated service solutions, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize around 20-25% [2][7]. - The lithium battery sector faces challenges due to weak pricing power in the materials segment, driven by supply-demand imbalances. The report notes that the industry's effective capacity utilization is projected to hover around 60-65%, with leading battery manufacturers exerting significant influence over pricing and production cycles [6][12]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - Demand has been front-loaded, leading to a significant increase in installations, with 212.21 GW added in the first half of 2025, a 107.1% year-on-year increase. However, the market saw a sharp decline in June, indicating potential overcapacity and absorption issues [13][16]. - The report highlights the need for supply-side reforms and policy support to stabilize the industry, as the current market dynamics are characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand [1][19]. Energy Storage - The report indicates a positive outlook for large-scale energy storage, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize at 20-25%. The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on high-quality integrated solutions [2][7]. - The report also notes that the distributed energy storage market is entering a new phase, with competition intensifying and previous easy profits becoming harder to achieve [5][12]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a lack of pricing power in the materials segment, with effective capacity utilization projected at 60-65%. The report suggests that leading manufacturers are likely to dominate pricing and production cycles, impacting smaller players [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for material suppliers to adapt through cost reduction and technological advancements to remain competitive in a challenging market [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the electric new energy sector is in a phase of "repeated games," with expectations for growth and recovery being tempered by market realities. The priority for sector recovery is seen as energy storage, followed by power batteries and photovoltaics [7][8]. - Selected companies such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in management, cost, and technology [8].

智通财经APP获悉，近日，知名经济学家洪灝在一场对话分享了他对当前市场的看法。洪灝指出，港股 下半年肯定还有一波行情，主要还是因为北水还在源源不断地南下。港股今年机会非常多。对于香港或 离岸投资者，洪灝相信他们会继续买港股，主要还是因为香港流动性非常充沛。另外，洪灝相信美联储 九月很快会降息，如果这样，香港金管局的货币政策跟着美联储走，香港也会降息，流动性会更充沛。 所以今年港股的机会非常多。对于香港或离岸投资者，洪灝相信他们会继续买港股，主要还是因为香港 流动性非常充沛。另外，洪灝相信美联储九月很快会降息，如果这样，香港金管局的货币政策跟着美联 储走，香港也会降息，流动性会更充沛。 香港的机会还是有的，但是有些机会无法表达的，比如内地的基建概念股、苹果产业链、特斯拉产业 链、科创50等，这些板块今年表现都非常好，但在香港市场买不到，只能去A股买。另外，今年A股小 微盘股表现也非常好，导致今年做指增，比如中证500指增基金，今年真的躺赢。所以虽然整体指数涨 得不多，但两地市场——香港和A股——今年都给大家提供了很多投资机会。 关于这轮反内卷，跟16、17年那波供给侧改革比，洪灝认为最大的不一样是，16、17年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the solar industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [5][61]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases across the supply chain, with component prices currently in a negotiation phase [12]. - The report highlights that the prices of key materials such as polysilicon and silicon wafers have remained stable, while the demand for solar cells is showing signs of differentiation based on size [12][39]. - The overall market sentiment is improving due to supply-side reforms and the implementation of energy-saving measures, which are expected to benefit certain segments of the industry [12][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends in the Solar Industry - Polysilicon prices are stable, with N-type re-investment material averaging 47,200 RMB/ton, up 0.21% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon remains unchanged at 44,300 RMB/ton [12][39]. - Silicon wafer prices are also stable, with various sizes holding steady, indicating a cautious market outlook [12][40]. - The prices of solar cells are showing a divergence based on size, with larger cells seeing price increases due to overseas demand [12][39]. - Component prices are in a negotiation phase, with upstream costs rising but limited acceptance from downstream companies due to profitability concerns [12][39]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes a 4.32% increase in the comprehensive index and a 1.94% increase in the electric power equipment industry index for the week [13][14]. - The top-performing stocks in the electric power equipment sector include Huaguang Huaneng (+46.75%) and Jinlihua Electric (+45.33%) [16][18]. 3. Industry Valuation Metrics - As of August 8, the industry PE (TTM) for electric power equipment stands at 26x, with a valuation percentile of 27.9% [25][30]. - The solar equipment sector has a PE (TTM) of 19x, with a valuation percentile of 19.7%, indicating a relatively lower valuation compared to other sectors [26][35].

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-12 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观量化经济指数周报 20250810：预计 7 月贷款需求回落、社融增速平 稳增长 8 月初出口量已环比出现下行 海外周报 20250810：美国 7 月 CPI 前瞻：商品价格抬升或推动 CPI 环比 走高 核心观点：本周降息预期升温与地缘政治局势缓提振市场情绪，美股上 行；而美债拍卖结果不佳反应市场需求疲软，美债利率上行，10 年期美 债利率升 6.7bps 至 4.283%。本周特朗普在社交媒体上宣布提名经济顾问 委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰担任美联储理事，以接替提前宣布辞职的美联储 理事库格勒。由于米兰此前的公开发言曾批评美联储的货币政策决议带 有"政治动机"，因此米兰的提名如果最终得到参议院确认，则未来美联 储内部对于政策利率路径的分歧或进一步加剧。向前看，下周公布的美国 7 月 CPI 数据环比存在再度抬升的可能，届时市场对 9 月的降息预期或 因此进一步回落。 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大 引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统 流 ...

7月份，"反内卷"呼声愈演愈烈，引发市场对多个品种供给侧改革的强烈预期，助力相关期货品种价格 快速上涨。玻璃作为主要建材品种，也在十大重点行业稳增长领域之中，7月主力合约盘面上涨幅度最 高达36%，位列前茅。但由于缺乏具体措施落地，叠加市场"反内卷"情绪有所降温，盘面出现快速回 落。截至8月8日，2509合约收盘价为1063元/吨，较最高点1370元/吨下跌307元/吨，下跌幅度为22.4%。 从现货价格来看，由期货上涨叠加社会库存偏低引发的投机性补库支撑现货价格上涨，但涨幅不及期货 盘面。在期货价格下跌后，期现商低价出售手中货源冲击玻璃厂价格，导致市场进入消化中下游货源阶 段。近期部分区域厂家库存快速增加，价格再次回落。截至8月8日，沙河市场大板价格为1181元/吨， 基差为118元/吨。 与7月初中央财经委员会第六次会议提出的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退 出"相比，7月30日中央政治局会议删除了"低价"二字，改为"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，同时将"推 动落后产能有序退出"调整为"推进重点行业产能治理"。市场期待的供给侧强力改革预期骤然降温，且 浮法玻璃基本面没有实质性的改善，盘面急 ...