Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector showed mixed results, with styrene futures experiencing a downward trend, closing at 6505.00 CNY/ton, down 1.83% from the day's high of 6505.00 CNY and a low of 6365.00 CNY [1] - Analysts from Ruida Futures suggest that the short-term supply-demand balance for styrene may further tighten, with visible inventory expected to continue decreasing [1] - According to Wukuang Futures, the commissioning of the styrene unit by Guangxi Sinopec is putting pressure on the supply side, while the port inventory of styrene is significantly decreasing, indicating potential price stabilization [1] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that falling oil prices and pure benzene prices have led to a decline in trading sentiment for styrene, although the supply-demand fundamentals have shown short-term improvement due to unexpected supply reductions and European supply shortages [2] - The market has been hearing frequent news of styrene export transactions, which is providing some support to prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-17氧化铝主力合约开于2816元/吨，收于2817元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.70%，最高价达到2840元/吨，最低价为2774元/吨。全天交易日成交505612手，全天交易日 持仓390494手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-17保太民用生铝采购价格16800元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17000元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价20900元/吨，价格环比昨日变化-100元/吨。 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-280元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21490元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-140元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21480元/吨，较上一交易日变化-280元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-150元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-17日沪铝主力合约开于21835元/吨，收于21725元/吨，较上一交易日变化-250元/吨， 最高价达21835元/吨，最低价达到21650元/吨。全天交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, so the price will continue the weak shock trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - From the fundamental perspective of iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the trend of declining hot - metal production continues, the demand side of iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - The black - sector pricing has recently returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The height after the callback depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6380 tons to 100,612 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 32 lots to 1.923701 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 97,028 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19,179 lots to 1.326892 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory risk remains. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 763.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the positions decreased by 11,250 lots to 530,400 lots. The weighted positions were 963,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.35% [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production decreased, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory accumulation increased, and the steel mill inventory increased. Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.96% at 5764 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 1.79% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the black - sector pricing has returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9180 yuan/ton, down 1.18% (- 110). The weighted positions decreased by 13,304 lots to 426,734 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 230 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 51,930 yuan/ton, down 3.33% (- 1790). The weighted positions increased by 11,791 lots to 234,183 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.2 yuan/kg, all unchanged, with a basis of 270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (- 16). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged, and the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, down 2.654 million cases (- 4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 55,903 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,853 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 11). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1176 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was 899,600 tons, up 13,200 tons, and the light - soda inventory was 814,600 tons, down 1000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 31,273 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 11,482 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the commodity market, particularly oil and gold prices, are driven by various factors including supply concerns and economic indicators [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil has seen a three-day increase, currently around $61, driven by strong refined fuel prices, concerns over potential supply issues due to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, and technical buying as it tested the $60 mark without breaking [3] - Despite the recent price increase, concerns about oversupply remain, with upcoming OPEC and IEA reports expected to influence future price movements [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have increased but the growth rate has slowed, influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, which reduces gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, and weak employment data indicating economic softness [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could exceed $5,000 next year due to continued purchases by emerging market central banks, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [4] Base Metals - Copper prices have risen slightly, with LME copper at approximately $10,827 per ton, influenced by a 0.2% drop in the U.S. dollar index, which typically boosts dollar-denominated metal prices [5] - The performance of base metals is closely tied to the pace of global economic recovery, which is currently unstable, leading to expected volatility in metal prices [5] Investment Strategy - For oil, investors are advised to wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering positions, especially in light of the upcoming OPEC and IEA reports [5] - In gold, a gradual accumulation strategy is recommended, particularly if economic data continues to show weakness or geopolitical tensions arise [5] - For base metals, focus should be on those linked to renewable energy and manufacturing recovery, as clearer signals of global economic recovery are needed before making long-term investments [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ななな [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose, and short - term demand release cannot provide continuous driving force. The cost and macro - aspects lack clear guidance [2]. - Different chemical products face various supply - demand situations and price trends, with most products under downward pressure or in a state of uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene demand has improved temporarily, but overall supply is abundant, and short - term demand cannot drive continuously. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increases, and demand shows weakness. For polypropylene, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is weak, with a small decline in East China spot and stable Shandong quotes. There are short - term consolidation and medium - term negatives. Benzene - styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply - demand, and the price is under pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices decreased. PX supply rises, PTA load drops, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol supply has growth pressure, and demand is expected to weaken. Short - fiber demand may decline, and bottle - chip demand fades [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol price continues to fall, with high expected arrivals in November and weak downstream demand. Urea price drops, with a weak supply - demand situation and a high probability of price decline in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC price drops, with weak cost support, high supply, and low demand. Caustic soda fluctuates, with good liquid chlorine prices, but high inventory pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price weakens slightly, with cost increases and high - pressure supply in the long term. Glass price drops, with cost increases, reduced profit, and low - inventory replenishment sentiment [7]

以下为研究报告摘要： 国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：本周油价震荡回落。美国政府持续停摆导致市场 宏观风险偏好下降。同时沙特下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价表明其保证亚洲市场份额决 心。截止11月6日，WTI现货收于59.43美元，环比-1.14美元；BRENT现货收于64.03美元， 环比-1.47美元。EIA10月31日当周商业原油库存环比+520.2万桶，前值-685.8万桶。其中库 欣原油环比+30万桶，前值+133.4万桶。汽油库存环比-472.9万桶，前值-594.1万桶。 原油：本周油价震荡回落。美国政府持续停摆导致市场宏观风险偏好下降。同时沙特下 调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价表明其保证亚洲市场份额决心。短期地缘风险下降后，市场 关注点重回供需基本面油价回落。尽管特朗普称尚未决定对委内瑞拉境内地面目标发动袭 击；但我们认为南美地缘风险未来1-2周仍可能上升。截止11月6日，WTI现货收于59.43美 元，环比-1.14美元；BRENT现货收于64.03美元，环比-1.47美元。EIA10月31日当周商业原 油库存环比+520.2万桶，前值-685.8万桶。其中库欣原油环比+30万桶，前值+1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term and intraday views are "shock and weak", and the reference view is "weak operation". The weak supply - demand situation dominates, leading to a weak and volatile trend for both [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained a shock - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.77% to 14,845 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Driving Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, although there were positive developments in economic and trade tariffs, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - long sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market saw profit - taking. The rubber market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, putting pressure on rubber prices [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed a shock - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.83% to 10,095 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, the positive results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than expectations. As the macro - long sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market entered a "reality - dominated" stage, with investors becoming more cautious [7].