陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多条产线冷修， 供需矛盾有所缓解 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/12/05 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 价格：截至2025/12/05，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1070元/吨，环比持平；玻璃主力合约收盘报1010元/吨，环比-31元/吨；基差60元/吨，环 比上周+31元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/12/05，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-223元/吨，环比+4.27元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价4150元/吨，环 比-100元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but relatively weak domestic demand. Policy adjustments will focus on increasing quality consumption supply, reducing inefficient investments, promoting consumer welfare, and addressing debt issues, which will impact various industries differently [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with inflation anticipated to be higher than in 2025. This suggests that nominal growth will outperform this year, positively influencing secondary market investments. Structural opportunities will primarily be found in technology and consumption sectors, driven by both economic and cultural factors [3]. - **Export Performance**: Exports in 2025 exceeded expectations, and growth in 2026 is projected to be at least as high as this year, potentially exceeding 6%. The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while direct exports to the U.S. are declining, although overall dependency is rising. Despite falling export prices, corporate profit margins are stabilizing due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][13]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: The primary reasons for weak domestic demand are the transformation of the real estate sector and heavy debt burdens, which have adversely affected the income of businesses, governments, and households. This situation is reflected in accounts receivable and payable metrics, indicating potential risks [6]. - **"Anti-Involution" Policy**: This systemic initiative differs from historical capacity reduction measures and will intensify in certain sectors such as glass, chemicals, photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and coal in 2026. This indicates that structural opportunities will increasingly manifest in specific industries [7]. - **Economic Policy Trends**: The economic policy for 2026 will continue a trend of moderate acceleration, focusing on increasing quality consumption supply and reducing inefficient supply. This approach has been emphasized since the 2022 strategic planning outline and the 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sectors to Watch**: Key areas for increasing quality consumption supply include yachts, private jets, automobiles, and services in sports and high-end healthcare. Inbound consumption is also significant. Collectively, these sectors represent about 3% of 2024's GDP, with a potential growth of 10%, translating to a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP [10]. - **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The overall fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise, including a narrow deficit rate of 3%-4% and a broader fiscal support rate. Adjustments in the use of special bonds aim to enhance efficiency, with the 2025 special bond scale at 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in usage compared to previous years [11]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2026, with interest rate cuts likely and sufficient room for reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2025 [12]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment is anticipated to improve slightly next year due to moderate increases and structural adjustments. Consumption levels are expected to remain stable, supported by policies like trade-in programs and increased social welfare spending, alongside enhanced quality consumption supply. Export expectations are optimistic, with a projected growth of 6% or higher, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and advancements in Chinese technology [2][13]. - **Potential Growth Space**: China's potential growth rate exceeds 5%, indicating substantial growth opportunities. With sufficient policy support, higher growth can be achieved. Overall, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will allow the economy to reveal more positive aspects, with significant development opportunities across various sectors [14].

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，也扎根中长线投资多年。最近打开行情软件，是不是被 大宗商品的表现惊到了？原油悄悄涨，铜价踩着新高往上走，白银更是在历史高点附近晃悠，这市场热 闹得很，今天就用聊天的方式跟大家扒一扒背后的逻辑，还有咱们中长线该怎么布局。 先说说原油，这事儿得从美俄会谈说起。前几天美俄代表团坐下来谈，结果没达成结束俄乌冲突的协 议，虽然说会谈挺有建设性，但没谈拢就意味着，俄罗斯石油的制裁短期内松不了口。加上最近针对俄 罗斯关联油轮的袭击变多，有些船舶公司都不敢往那边派船了，供应端的担忧一下子就上来了。可能有 朋友会说，不是说原油库存增加了吗？没错，上周美国原油库存加了57.4万桶，但比行业预期的250万 桶少多了，所以没给市场带来太大压力。做财经记者那20年，我见过不少地缘冲突影响油价的情况，这 次也一样，只要俄乌冲突没实质性进展，原油供应的不确定性就会一直存在，短期很难出现大幅下跌， 这是咱们中长线看原油的一个核心前提。 再看白银，这品种最近可太火了，一直徘徊在历史高点附近。关键推手其实是美国的就业数据，11月企 业就业人数是2023年初以来跌得最多的，这就让市场觉得，美联储12月降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No Rating Provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is stable, and the market is oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, and the steel mills' profitability is declining. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has eased, but the market sentiment is weak. The supply of thermal coal is tightening at the end of the month, and the price is oscillating [1][2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3293 yuan/ton. Rebar's production, sales, and inventory all declined, and destocking was in line with the season. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, while inventory and demand decreased, and high inventory still suppressed the market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of destocking, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has been well alleviated. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has narrowed significantly. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Building material demand may weaken later, which may drag down plates [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 119.1 million tons, a 15.30% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 143.0 million tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous day. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the previous week [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week, port inventories continued to rise, and the average daily hot - metal output decreased slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has intensified. The profitability of steel mills has been declining, and downstream steel mills have started to cut production. Some iron ore inventories are locked due to non - market factors, and if these factors are removed, the iron ore price will face great pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts. For coking coal, supply disturbances were frequent, and the online auction failure rate was high. The import of Mongolian coal resumed normal traffic, and the market sentiment was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal weakly stable at around 1000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the supply remained tight, the market was pessimistic about future prices, speculative purchases were insufficient, and inventories accumulated at mines, ports, and steel mills. With the weakening of terminal demand in the off - season, coal prices were still under pressure in the short term. For coke, the production of steel mills and independent coking plants increased rapidly this week, inventories in each link except ports increased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The fundamental contradiction has eased, and the coke price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices oscillated. Near the end of the month, the supply of some coal mines tightened, which supported prices. The shipments of large terminal operators and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgical and chemical industries was active. However, affected by port price cuts, the sales of some coal mines were not smooth, and the wait - and - see sentiment spread. At ports, the market sentiment weakened, and downstream procurement demand was cold. Northern port inventories accumulated rapidly, and the pressure on traders to sell increased. The import bid price of coal decreased, and the market expectation was not good [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices have oscillated. In the long - term, the supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7].

Group 1 - The rare metals sector has shown signs of recovery, with the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index rising by 0.54% as of 13:19 on November 27, 2025, driven by significant increases in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (+5.63%) and Tin Industry Co. (+4.90%) [1] - The supply-side uncertainty and a substantial increase in demand from downstream sectors like energy storage and power batteries have led to a surge in lithium carbonate futures, which previously exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton [1] - Strategic minor metals are characterized by limited reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, while rapid growth in demand from new energy, semiconductors, and military industries exacerbates supply-demand conflicts [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the minor metals sector is expected to experience positive changes in 2026, with high growth in energy storage demand prompting an earlier reversal cycle in the lithium carbonate industry [1] - The ongoing re-evaluation of strategic minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony will be supported by the reshaping of the global credit landscape and the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, collectively accounting for 60% of the index [1]

对于未来铜价走势，广发期货分析称，随着供应的逐步紧缺得到共识，下游对铜价的心理价位上限逐步上移。 自由港公司预计Grasberg Block Cave地下矿将于2026年Q2陆续复产，短期铜矿供应紧缺格局不变，关注年末长 单TC谈判及副产品价格走势，0及以下的长单TC以及副产品价格走弱或引发市场对未来减产的担忧。中长期的 供需矛盾支撑铜价底部重心逐步上移，关注海外降息预期等宏观驱动。 周三，因为市场普遍预期美联储将在下个月降息，伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜显著走高，连续四个交易日上 涨，触及近一个月来的最高水平。本月迄今伦铜上涨0.77%，今年迄今上涨24.88%。 据外媒报道，智利国家铜业公司提出以每吨335美元的溢价，向部分买家供应2026年年度合同所需铜材，该溢 价是伦敦金属交易所价格之上计算的。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万吨盈 余。 荷兰国际集团(ING)大宗商品分析师表示，铜价上涨风险正在增长，在供应挑战、库存低迷和持续的贸易扭曲 的影响下，2026年供需平衡将趋紧。 | 今开:10965.00 | 昨结: 10975.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Rising" investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is driven by a strong real - world fundamental situation and the transformation of the weak 2026E expectation into a strong one, leading to a resonance in the linkage between stocks and futures [6] - There are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1 under the strong 2026E expectation, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty [15] - The current market is trading based on strong fundamentals, but there is callback pressure on the market. However, the expectation that the off - season in 26Q1 will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52] Summary by Directory 01 Hot Event Review - **Recent Rising Drivers - Strong Real - World Fundamentals**: Since September, lithium carbonate has entered a seasonal peak season, with a gradually emerging supply - demand gap. After the National Day holiday in October, the impact of mining - end disturbances decreased, and lithium prices started to rise. The release of a key report on the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in early November accelerated the expected resumption of production. Even if Jianxiaowo resumes production, the full - production increment will not change the supply - demand shortage in November. The market has shifted to trading based on strong real - world fundamentals. From January to October 2025, there were fluctuations in the supply and demand of lithium carbonate, and there were supply shortages in multiple months [9][11] - **Recent Rising Drivers - Transformation of 26E Weak Expectation into Strong Expectation and Resonance in Stock - Futures Linkage**: The equity market has an optimistic expectation for the 2026E energy - storage demand, and the lithium - battery sector has risen first. Since November 5th, the incremental capital inflow has driven the increase in positions and prices of lithium carbonate. The precipitation funds of the lithium carbonate variety have increased from 14.4 billion yuan to a peak of 26.3 billion yuan, an increase of + 82.6%, and the price of LC2601 has increased from 79,000 yuan on November 5th to a high of 102,000 yuan, an increase of + 29.1% [12][14] - **Differences**: Under the strong 2026E expectation, there are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty. The 01 - 05 spread has weakened significantly, and the distant - month LC2605 has become the main contract. The demand for new - energy vehicles in 26Q1 is expected to decline month - on - month, so there are differences in the rise of LC2601 lithium prices, while LC2605 is not affected by the Q1 demand decline [15] 02 Fundamental Situation and Operation Suggestions - **Supply**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 57,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 2%, and it is expected to be 57,500 tons in November, a month - on - month increase of + 1%. It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite will continue to decline month - on - month in November [20] - **Demand**: In November, the expected production of various lithium - related products has different trends. For example, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 4.0%; the production of ternary materials is expected to be 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 1.4%; the production of cobalt - acid lithium is expected to rise to 13,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.4%; the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise to 26,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.7%, while the production of manganese - acid lithium is expected to be 12,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.6% [22][25] - **Terminal Demand**: In October, the production of power and energy - storage batteries was 170.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 12.8%; the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 10.7%; the production of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of + 9.6%, and the sales volume was 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of + 6.9%. The energy - storage demand remains high, but is restricted by the slowdown in capacity growth. Overseas energy - storage markets maintain high prosperity [32][46] - **Inventory**: Last week, the sample inventory was 118,400 tons, with a de - stocking of 2,052 tons, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased to 26,848 lots, with a de - stocking of 322 lots, and the inventory days of lithium carbonate decreased to 26.8 days [49] - **Strategy**: The market still has room for correction, but the strong real - world situation combined with the expectation that the 26Q1 off - season will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [3] - Coking Coal: Oscillating weakly [4] - Coke: Oscillating [4] - Thermal Coal: Oscillating strongly [5][6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is optimistic, and steel prices are oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - The supply - demand disturbances of iron ore continue, and ore prices maintain an oscillation. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is accumulating. Coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, and coke prices follow coking coal fluctuations [3][4]. - The rigid demand for thermal coal procurement is stable, and coal prices are oscillating strongly. The supply is gradually tightening, but the port market sentiment is weak [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3106 yuan/ton and 3309 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, with 10.13 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure of coils and rebar has been well alleviated. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore was 97.5 tons, a 13.02% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 165.0 tons, a 73.68% increase [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipment decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory continued to rise. Downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts due to continuous losses, and there is a possibility of further production cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. The coke market was stable and weak, and the production increased steadily. Some coal mines in the origin of coking coal had production cuts, and the import of Mongolian coal was affected by snow [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction gradually accumulated. The cost support of coke weakened, and the market sentiment turned weak [4]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be oscillating weakly, and coke should be oscillating. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgy and chemical industries was active. The port market sentiment was weak, and the downstream procurement demand was cold. The import coal bid price decreased [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply is gradually tightening, which supports coal prices. The inventory in coal mines is not high, but the inventory in northern ports has increased rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices are oscillating [6].