Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the possibility of repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [7][8]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the increasing risk of global economic recession under tariff disturbances, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies of various countries, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, considering the industrial supply - demand situation, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, considering the improvement of the supply - demand pattern, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, considering the industrial supply - demand situation and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [20]. - For ferroalloys, considering the supply - demand situation, inventory, and cost, for manganese silicon, attention can be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and attention can also be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels [23]. - For crude oil, considering the OPEC+ production increase and the positive impact of Sino - US talks, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - For fuel oil, considering the possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the signing of tariff friction agreements, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [27][28]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state; PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state; urea requires attention to export changes; PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; PTA is expected to have a small price repair space; ethylene glycol is expected to have a small upward price space; short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; soda ash may have short - term disk adjustments; glass has no obvious driving force in the short term; caustic soda may have certain driving forces due to device maintenance; pulp is in a weak pattern; lithium carbonate is expected to be weak; copper is expected to be strong; tin is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly; nickel is recommended to be observed cautiously; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be bearish; soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have different investment opportunities; cotton is recommended to be observed; sugar is expected to oscillate within a range; apples are recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections; pigs are expected to be weak first and then stable and strong; eggs are recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads; corn and starch are recommended to be observed temporarily; logs have no obvious driving force [29][30][32][36][38][40][42][43][44][45][47][49][52][54][56][58][60][61][63][65][68][69][73][76][78][81][83][86] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 9, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's April export growth slowed down, and the trade surplus decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [9]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. China's April CPI and core CPI showed certain changes, and PPI continued to decline [10]. - Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. Due to the complex global situation, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may provide support. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern supports the price. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the price of coke is under pressure. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. Different investment opportunities are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [22][23]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the Sino - US talks are positive for crude oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [24][25][26]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is positive for fuel oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The demand increase may not offset the supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export changes [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA improves, and the cost is expected to turn better. It is expected to have a small price repair space [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term supply increase of ethylene glycol is not obvious, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is expected to have a small upward price space [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand warms up slightly, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose. The raw material price oscillates and adjusts, and the bottle - chip is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract fell. The supply is still high, and the raw material price is falling. There may be short - term disk adjustments [45][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract fell. There is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract fell. The demand for caustic soda is limited, and some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have certain driving forces [49][50]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp 2507 main contract rose. The supply is high, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in a weak pattern [51][52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and it is expected to be weak [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US talks achieved important results, and copper is expected to be strong. It is considered to take a long - biased operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [56][57]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly [58][59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply is tightened at the mine end, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract fell, and the polysilicon main contract rose. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and the price of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline. It is considered bearish [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and different investment opportunities are recommended for soybean oil and soybean meal [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to expected production and inventory increases. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventory is different. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after corrections [68]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. The market is waiting for the USDA report and Sino - US negotiation news. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and it is recommended to observe [69][70][71]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices oscillated at a low level, and foreign raw sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is mixed, and the domestic sugar is expected to oscillate within a range [73][74][75]. Apples - Domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The production is expected to decrease this year, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections [76][77]. Pigs - The national average pig price was stable. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak first and then stable and strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [78][79][80]. Eggs - The average egg price was stable. The supply is expected to increase in May, and it is recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads [81][82]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract was flat. The domestic corn supply surplus eases slightly, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to observe temporarily [83][84][85]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log 2507 main contract rose slightly. The import volume decreased, and the market has no obvious driving force [86][87][88]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing economic instability and the increasing market share of electric vehicles as key factors [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Demand and Supply - The IEA projects global oil demand growth for 2025 to be 730,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1]. - In Q1 2025, global oil consumption is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, marking the largest increase since 2023 [1]. - Global oil supply in March increased by 590,000 barrels per day, reaching 103.6 million barrels per day, primarily driven by non-OPEC countries [1]. Group 2: Refining and Inventory - Global crude oil processing capacity is expected to reach 83.2 million barrels per day in 2025, with an increase of 340,000 barrels per day, down by 230,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [2]. - Global oil inventories rose by 21.9 million barrels in February, totaling 7.647 billion barrels, although they remain at the lower end of the past five years [2]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - Oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of approximately $10 per barrel from March to early April, reaching near four-year lows [2][3]. - The decision by some OPEC+ members to lift voluntary production cuts has heightened concerns about falling oil prices [3]. - The U.S. implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has raised fears of a global economic downturn, impacting market stability and oil prices [3].

Group 1 - Global recession risks have returned to market concerns, with mixed interpretations of economic data and key financial indicators [1] - The disconnect between hard data (like employment figures) and soft data (like consumer sentiment) complicates the assessment of recession risks [1] - U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to a near five-year low in April, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [1] Group 2 - Growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded, with economists indicating high recession risks, contrasting with previous strong growth predictions [5] - Barclays suggests a notable global economic slowdown, with mild recessions in the U.S. and Eurozone [5] - Commodity markets signal a sharp economic slowdown, with oil prices down approximately 16% this year, reflecting weak demand due to global growth concerns [5][8] Group 3 - The government bond market reflects concerns over economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs, but does not indicate heightened recession risks, as markets expect central banks to respond with rate cuts [9] - Traders have increased bets on further easing by the European Central Bank, anticipating a 60 basis point cut by December [9] - The yield curve remains a focus, with the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spread remaining positive, despite historical associations with recession predictions [9] Group 4 - Stock markets have rebounded, suggesting that recession fears may have eased, with significant gains in major indices [11] - Companies like Electrolux and Volvo have lowered their earnings outlooks, indicating uncertainty in future performance [11] - Despite strong first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, future expectations have declined compared to early April levels [14]

金十数据5月7日讯，日本经济团体联合会（Keidanren）会长德仓正一对日本国内企业信心的减弱表示 担忧，因为人们担心特朗普提高关税可能引发全球经济衰退。德仓正一表示，"各行业的许多人更担心 的是不确定性如何导致支出和投资下降，而不是美国关税的任何直接影响。"他还表示，关税对国内汽 车、钢铁和铝行业的企业造成了特别沉重的打击。虽然日本一直试图从特朗普政府那里获得让步，但美 国拒绝给予日本关税豁免，称对等关税中只有针对特定国家的部分是可以谈判的。德仓正一说，日本首 相石破茂领导的政府"必须努力尽快消除所有关税"，他敦促日本政府在与美国的谈判中更加不屈不挠。 日本经济团体联合会负责人就美国关税引发的后果发出警告 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized that the Trump administration's economic agenda, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, aims to strengthen the U.S. as a global capital destination [1] - Many corporate executives expressed concerns about the aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have led to companies pausing their investment plans [1] - Citigroup's CEO, Jane Fraser, noted that clients are preparing for difficult situations, with companies strengthening balance sheets and delaying business expenditures or investments [1] Group 2 - A Reuters poll indicated a high risk of global economic recession, with 92% of economists stating that the Trump administration's tariff policies have harmed business confidence [2] - The IMF's Managing Director, Georgieva, revised the global GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, attributing this to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - Georgieva warned that the world is moving towards a period of increased shocks and volatility, with developed economies like the U.S. facing more inflation [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a sideways manner. After the holiday, the domestic cotton price is likely to react much weaker than the foreign cotton. It is advisable to stay cautious and adopt a hedging strategy when there is a rebound [1]. - PTA is expected to have a short - term rebound, but due to the decline in international oil prices during the May Day holiday, the PTA price may slide [2]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to move in a sideways consolidation. However, due to the influence of the macro - environment, the price is expected to face downward pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is expected to move weakly in a sideways manner. After the holiday, the price is likely to decline [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade in a high - level sideways range. After the holiday, the sugar price will keep trading in a high - level sideways range [5]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the holiday, the apple price may fall from a high level [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Key Information - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. The US economy shrank in the first quarter, with GDP declining by 0.3% annually [8][9]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety Cotton - On April 30, the CC Index price was 14,183 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The CY Index C32S price was 20,410 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. As of April 30, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,355 (- 41) sheets [8][9]. - As of April 28, 2025, the overall cotton sowing progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, and the emergence rate was 61.7% [9]. - As of April 29, the non - commercial futures plus options net long positions in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 13,260 sheets compared with the previous week [9]. PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price was 4,570 yuan/ton. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a significant increase [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.93%, with the integrated device capacity utilization rate at 67.01% and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 53.17%. The weekly output was 54.97 million tons, a slight increase [10][14]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 16.14 million tons, with the capacity utilization rate average at 85.36%. The average polymerization cost was 5,112.14 yuan/ton, and the industry cash flow was - 30.14 yuan/ton [11][14]. Sugar - In the first four weeks of April, Brazil exported 128.19 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year decrease of 26.33%. It is expected that India's sugar export volume may be only 60 - 70 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season [12][14]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 44.58 million tons from the previous week. The prices of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi producing areas are provided [13][15]. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety The report provides various data trend charts for each variety, including cotton price, PTA futures price, ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate, etc. [21][26][30]

苹果、耐克这些靠中国制造的大厂，股价已经开始坐过山车，特朗普却满不在乎，公开喊话，"宁可经济疼一阵，也不能让中国占便宜！"这话听着豪气，可 背后是无数美国老百姓的钱包在默默流血，特朗普这次不光自己上头，还拉着盟友一起跳火坑，他电话打到欧洲、日本、韩国。 特朗普电话打遍全球盟友，嘴上喊着"公平贸易"，手上却挥舞着关税大棒。 他像是铁了心，哪怕世界经济翻车，也要跟中国拼个你死我活。 作者-甜 编辑-甜 特朗普从不按常理出牌，2025年，他二度入主白宫，带着一身"复仇"气息，关税政策直接开挂，过去几年，他跟中国的贸易战已经让全球捏了把汗，但这 次，他直接把关税税率提到夸张的地步，针对中国商品的税率有的高达50%甚至更多，这不是小打小闹。 这是要彻底把中国货挡在美国的门外！他为啥这么狠？说白了，特朗普觉得自己被"欺负"惨了，他嘴上老挂着"美国优先"，但私底下，他觉得中国这些年在 全球经济里风头太盛，从5G到新能源车，再到芯片，中国的脚步让他坐立不安，他那颗"让美国再次伟大"的心。 压根容不下中国继续崛起，于是，关税成了他手里的"核武器"，一按按钮，全球经济都得抖三抖，可这招真管用吗？华尔街的分析师们已经吓得脸都绿了， ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that the increasing demand for gold from global central banks has structurally raised the gold-silver ratio, predicting that gold prices will continue to outperform silver prices [1][3] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 102, up from 84.7 a year ago, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - Gold prices have surged over 28% this year, reaching a historical high of $3,500.05 per ounce in April, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and strong demand for safe-haven assets [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook for gold, forecasting that gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and potentially $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [4][5] - In the event of a substantial global economic recession, inflows into gold-related ETFs could push prices to around $3,880 per ounce by year-end, with extreme scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by 2025 [5] - The investment community is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as concerns over its independence have impacted market confidence in the dollar [5][6] Group 3 - Wall Street institutions are increasingly turning to gold as a defensive asset, with HSBC downgrading U.S. equities and emphasizing the need for investors to increase gold holdings amid inflationary risks [7] - Recent data shows that major global gold ETFs have attracted over $12 billion in inflows over the past two months, marking the largest scale since 2020 [8] - Predictions from investment strategists suggest that gold prices could reach $5,000 within the next 18-24 months, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the market [8]

住友商事CEO：我们正面临前所未有的全球经济衰退风险。 ...