Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The fundamentals of both LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene has high maintenance levels on the supply - side with an expected increase later, and its inventory is still higher than usual. The overall valuation is moderately low. For polyethylene, the operating load is gradually rising, and the upstream inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures fluctuated upwards, with the basis being relatively firm. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple device shutdowns, but shipments are still fast. In the inland area, both supply and demand are increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the shipment decreases [4][5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, with high inventory levels. The price is expected to be weak. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the demand is sluggish. Although there are expectations of increased exports, the overall supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to go short on PVC after a rebound [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - term long positions can be closed, and short positions can be taken after a rebound. For glass, the spot price is stable, but the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with the 01 contract following the delivery logic and the 05 contract remaining weak in the short - term [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term and should be treated with low - buying. PTA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are recommended. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value. Short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee on the disk should be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, it is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 [11]. Natural Rubber - The supply - side is supported by rising overseas raw material prices due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The demand - side has limited improvement in production capacity utilization. The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short forces, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500 [13]. Urea - Affected by the news of India's new round of tenders, the urea price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom - out and rebound in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 1650 - 1700 [15]. Crude Oil - After a rebound, the crude oil price is affected by geopolitical factors such as the situation between the US and Venezuela and the US - Russia talks. The inventory shows a slight reduction, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Brent crude oil should be monitored at the level of 60 dollars per barrel [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - For pure benzene, the short - term supply - demand is weak, but there are expectations of improvement later. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600. For styrene, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term [19]. LPG - The LPG price shows certain fluctuations. The inventory and operating rates of upstream and downstream are changing. The overall market situation needs to be further observed [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 and L2605 of LLDPE decreased, while PP2601 slightly increased and PP2605 slightly decreased. The basis and spreads of various varieties also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased, and social inventory decreased. PP enterprise inventory slightly increased, and trader inventory decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was stable, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased. PP device operating rate increased, and powder operating rate decreased [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis was relatively firm. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates also changed [5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **PVC**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of PVC increased. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply pressure remained, and demand was sluggish. There were expectations of increased exports [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Prices**: Prices in different regions and forms had different trends. The export profit increased slightly [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand pressure remained, with high inventory levels [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions were stable, and futures prices had minor changes [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [9]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices had small fluctuations [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand was bearish, with reduced demand from the float and photovoltaic ends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as crude oil and naphtha, and downstream polyester product prices all had different degrees of change [11]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory was expected to increase [11]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, changed [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was affected by the overseas situation, and demand was limited by the slow recovery of tire production and the weakening of replacement demand [13]. Urea - **Prices**: Futures prices increased, and spot prices in different regions had different trends [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by environmental inspections and the limited impact of India's tenders [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different trends, and the spreads between different varieties and months also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: EIA inventory decreased slightly [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the spreads and cash - flows had corresponding changes [19]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene port inventory was stable, and styrene port inventory decreased [19]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries decreased [19]. LPG - **Prices**: Futures prices of LPG had different trends, and the basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: Refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream refinery operating rate increased, and some downstream operating rates also changed [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].

1. Report General Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, supported by fundamentals but affected by the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan [8]. - The current industrial fundamentals of lithium carbonate are healthy, but the momentum to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. - Aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to be weak under the pressure of oversupply [76]. - Zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later [102]. 4. Summary by Metals Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE copper fluctuated between 91,450 and 94,570, with a total position of 646,872 lots. The spot premium turned to a discount of 20 on Friday. The copper price hit a record high due to the Fed's interest rate cut, China's policy expectations, and supply - demand support. LME copper ranged from 11,585 to 11,952, and the net long position of funds increased [7]. - It is recommended to note that although the supply of refined copper is under limited pressure and the demand acceptance has marginally improved, the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan may suppress market sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The import TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, while the processing fees of cold materials increased. The smelting loss of spot copper concentrate expanded, but the by - product sulfuric acid revenue rose. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [11][12][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 9.01 percentage points to 18.16%, while that of refined copper rods decreased by 2.82% to 64.54%. The operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire also declined [15][16][17]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, and bonded area inventory decreased. LME + COMEX market inventory increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, with the main contract ranging from 91,120 to 101,620. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was relatively stable. The inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, and the cost support increased [24]. - It is recommended to note that the supply pressure is easing, and the demand growth rate of the terminal field is slowing down. The current industrial fundamentals are healthy, but the power to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is easing. It is expected that the output in December will decrease by 1% month - on - month. The prices of lithium mines generally rose, and the cash costs of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased [27][28]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all rose. The prices of power cells fluctuated, and the production of power cells slowed down at the end of the year, while the production of energy - storage cells remained good [29][30][31]. - Spot: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract deepened significantly. The inventory continued to decline [33][34]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract ranging from 21,790 to 22,355. Alumina continued to fall, and the smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise. The industry was in a state of destocking, and the import window was closed [40]. - It is recommended to note that the price of domestic bauxite is stable, alumina is still falling, and the demand for aluminum processing is weak. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite: The price of domestic bauxite remained stable, and the supply of imported bauxite was well - supported. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 0.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton [43]. - Alumina: The futures price hit a new low, and the import window was open. The weighted index of Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 0.59% week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic alumina plants was at a high level [46][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price of alumina continued to fall, and the average profit of the industry increased to 5,715.47 yuan per ton [52]. - Exports and Imports: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots was closed [61]. - Processing Enterprises: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, and the demand was weak [65]. - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline [69]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, nickel prices fell unilaterally. SHFE nickel and LME nickel both declined, and the import window was closed. The domestic social inventory increased by 2,122 tons to 58,970 tons, and the overall inventory pressure was significant [72]. - It is recommended to note that the price of Indonesian nickel ore fell, the price of nickel iron rebounded slightly, and the price of nickel salts continued to fall. The inventory continued to increase, and nickel prices are expected to remain weak [75][76]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores were temporarily stable, but the price of Indonesian nickel ore was loose. In October, the import of nickel ore decreased significantly [77]. - Nickel Iron: In November, the production of nickel pig iron decreased. In December, the production is expected to continue to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the import of nickel iron decreased slightly but remained at a high level [85][86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In November, the production of refined nickel decreased [90]. - Nickel Sulfate: This week, the price of nickel salts continued to fall. In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased [93][96]. - Stainless Steel: This week, the inventory of the stainless - steel market increased slightly, and the actual demand did not improve significantly [99]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE zinc rose to repair the gap in April and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot premium declined, and the processing fees of zinc ore continued to fall. The domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and the LME zinc inventory increased [101]. - It is recommended to note that under the joint drive of macro - benefits and fundamental shortages, zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of smelters, inventory destocking rhythm, and macro - sentiment changes [102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fees of zinc ore continued to decline, and the production of refined zinc in November may have declined slightly. In December, the production is expected to continue to fall. The overseas LME0 - 3 Back structure remains high, and the export window is open [109][110]. - Demand: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 0.33% to 58.39%, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide decreased. The overall demand in the fourth quarter is weak [111][112]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 2,600 tons to 60,350 tons [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

Market Overview - The polyester bottle chip market showed a reasonable transaction atmosphere, with orders from December to February trading between 5680-5740 CNY/ton, slightly lower at 5600-5640 CNY/ton, and a few transactions slightly higher at 5760-5780 CNY/ton, indicating price variations among different brands [1] - The domestic polyester bottle chip capacity utilization rate averaged 72.05%, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5321 CNY, an increase of 44 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The weekly production gross profit for polyester bottle chips was -164 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase of 2.6 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - As of December 5, the available inventory days for polyester bottle chips recorded 16.13 days, a decrease of 0.36 days or 2.18% from the previous week, while the cumulative increase over the past month was 0.32 days, or 2.02% [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures noted that with the continued decline in oil prices and weak cost support, the industry sentiment remains cautious, suggesting that the polyester bottle chip market may maintain a sluggish state [3] - Galaxy Futures reported stable operating rates for bottle chips recently, with no major beverage manufacturers conducting tenders, leading to a tight supply of certain bottle chip sources and an increase in processing fees. However, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose due to the anticipated production of a new 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip facility by Shandong Fuhai and the expected restart of two 300,000-ton facilities by China Resources Zhuhai in late December, with downstream purchasing activity being slow [3]

2025 年 12 月 08 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6210 | 6262 | -52 | PF01-02 | 0 | -6 | 6 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6210 | 6268 | -58 | PF02-03 | -4 | -2 | -2 | | | 短纤2603 | 6214 | 6270 | -56 | PF主力基差 | 110 | 62 | 48 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 119104 | 208598 | -89494 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 320 | 6. 330 | -10 | | | 短纤主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited. Long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - end: Brent oil prices range from $60 - 65 per barrel. OPEC+ agreed to keep production stable next year, and eight major oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 next year, partially alleviating oil price pressure, but the overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, and geopolitical and macro events may affect market sentiment. PX load remains high, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and processing fees are expected to gradually improve in the long - run. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period). Although weaving orders are weakening, the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% due to low inventory in polyester factories. PF has good fundamentals but weakening demand, and the processing fee is slightly compressed. PR's fundamentals change little, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 32 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 184 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 266 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan increase from the previous period). The PXN of PX is 286 dollars/ton (a 2.25 - dollar increase from the previous period) [1] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load can be maintained at a high level, and PXN has support under the support of polyester operation. The PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - run [1][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - India's BIS cancellation has boosted PTA export demand [1] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - PX load remains high, and PTA has concentrated maintenance recently, and the supply - demand situation has improved [1][3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Polyester factory inventory is currently low [2] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period), and it is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 183 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period). Short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level. However, downstream demand is weakening, and the processing fee is slightly compressed [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 445 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space for the 01 contract may be limited. It is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3] Core Viewpoints - The market is fluctuating, and PXN is relatively strong. The overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, but market differentiation caused by sanctions still exists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [1] - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% month - on - month increase). Although recent weaving orders have weakened marginally, the short - term risk of a significant decline in polyester load is low, and it is expected to remain around 91% [2] - For PX, with the support of polyester start - up, PXN has support, but the high - level PX load and individual device expansions limit its rebound space. Attention should be paid to the situation of blending into gasoline [1][3] - For TA, recent maintenance is concentrated, demand for exports has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. In the medium to long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1][3] - For PF, the load is at a high level, factory inventories have decreased to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support, but demand is weakening marginally [2][3] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. Maintenance continues, but the demand in the off - season is average. The spot processing fees of bottle chips are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The content includes toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea FOB and Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It presents PTA weekly social inventories, PX monthly social inventories, and various types of warehouse receipt inventories such as PTA and PX [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The report contains information on filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, and the start - up rates of related downstream industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [48][50][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes details such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and the load of recycled cotton - type staple fibers, as well as production and processing data of related yarns [70][82][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The content involves polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and export profits of bottle chips [89][95][99]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251201：区间整理 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 16,975.00 0.44% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.80% | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 -60.00 | | | 20.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 -81.80 1.00 | | | 元/吨 -35.00 -25.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -20.00 5.00 | | | 手 43,419.00 -24.23% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 47,922.00 -0.43% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.91 -23.90% | | | 沪锌近月-沪锌连一 元/吨 -40.00 -5.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.92% | 8. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].