Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a situation of long - short game, with the futures opening high and closing down. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by downstream stocking and daily production levels. There is no new export policy, so there is no driving force for upward rebound [1]. - After the previous pending orders are digested, urea factories are expected to reduce prices to attract orders as they fail to stimulate downstream fertilizer - stocking enthusiasm [1][5]. - The compound fertilizer factory's operating load continued to decline this period, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operation may pick up, and the raw material procurement end has resilience. The winter - storage market is expected to operate stably [1]. - The inventory reduction amplitude increased this period. The current inventory is 45.61 tons lower than the same period last year, mainly due to partial production cuts in both upstream and downstream devices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures of the urea main 2605 contract opened at 1737 yuan/ton, opened high and went high, and closed down. It finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06%. The trading volume was 193,654 lots (- 2,733 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long position decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,078 lots [2]. - On December 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. - The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories is mostly between 1,640 - 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of Henan factories are at the lower end, and a few Shandong factories' quotes are at the higher end [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,600 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.84% [11].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is experiencing active trading with a stock price of HKD 412, reflecting a 1.8% increase, indicating a close relationship between its price movements and overall market liquidity and external risk sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently in a state of indecision, oscillating around short-term moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at HKD 402.7, and the 30-day and 60-day moving averages at HKD 410.72 and HKD 421.80 respectively [2] - Key support is identified at HKD 400, with a further support level at HKD 391 if this is breached. Resistance is noted at HKD 416, with potential to challenge HKD 424 if surpassed [2] Derivative Strategies - In a market with mixed views, warrants and bull/bear certificates provide investors with options to position themselves without significant capital outlay. For instance, on December 17, HKEX shares rose by 2.16%, with related leveraged products showing varying price elasticity [5] - Bull certificates, such as those from Societe Generale and HSBC, exhibited significant price increases of 36% and 38% respectively, while warrants showed more moderate gains of 12% and 9% [5] Product Characteristics - Warrants are influenced by intrinsic value, time value, and implied volatility, with risks primarily associated with time decay. Conversely, bull/bear certificates have a "knockout price" mechanism, making their price movements more linear and potentially more efficient in tracking short-term trends [7] - The choice of issuer is crucial, as it affects product quality and reliability. Issuers are responsible for product creation and cash settlement guarantees, with stronger financial backing indicating higher reliability [18][19] Market Sentiment and Strategy - For investors anticipating a market rebound, higher strike price call options are recommended, while those expecting a downturn may consider put options or bear certificates. Specific products with favorable leverage ratios are highlighted for both bullish and bearish strategies [8][19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hikvision's stock price showed a slight increase at the opening, indicating some market support, but faced resistance at key technical levels, leading to a narrow trading range, reflecting a clear division in market sentiment between buyers and sellers [1] Market Performance - The opening price was slightly higher compared to the previous day's closing price, suggesting a degree of market acceptance [1] - During the trading session, the stock price attempted to break through key technical levels but failed, resulting in limited upward momentum [1] - The market is characterized by a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with buyers attempting to push higher but facing pressure from trapped positions and short-term profit-takers [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable divergence in judgment regarding the market's future direction, with buyers showing some strength but encountering significant resistance [1] - Sellers have not established overwhelming dominance, as the stock price continues to find support during pullbacks [1] - Overall, the early trading information indicates that the market is awaiting clearer signals to determine the next steps [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to the market's increased expectation of supply contraction after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights and the disappointment of supply release expectations caused by the rumored resumption delay at Shixiawo. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. Also, be aware of policy risks from the exchange, weekly inventory data, and the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The supply situation of lithium carbonate is still uncertain, and there is a need to be vigilant about policy cooling while the market sentiment is high [1]. Company Announcement - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Yifeng County Lion Ridge lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. The expiration of these 27 mining licenses has little actual impact on the lithium carbonate market supply [5]. Market Analysis - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is caused by the market's expectation of supply contraction and the disappointment of supply release expectations. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected to experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, with the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. Risk Warnings and Suggestions - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a market risk warning. Attention should be paid to policy risks of margin adjustment and position limit by the exchange in case of continuous sharp rise. Also, pay attention to the weekly inventory data on Thursday, as a slower - than - expected de - stocking speed may lead to a decline in market sentiment. Be vigilant against the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [7].

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 16, cup rubber is priced at 50.92 Thai Baht/kg, latex at 55.50 Thai Baht/kg, Hainan private rubber at 15,000 Yuan/ton, Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,835 USD/ton, and Thai mixed at 14,450 Yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, up by 1.81 percentage points month-on-month but down by 8.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, up by 0.55 percentage points month-on-month and up by 6.07 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.51 days, up by 0.56 days month-on-month and up by 5.60 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 40.58 days, up by 1.07 days month-on-month and down by 1.38 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Import Data and Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the U.S. imported a total of 217.312 million tires, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year [2] - Passenger car tire imports increased by 4% to 13.108 million units, while truck tire imports rose by 8% to 4.716 million units; however, aircraft tire imports decreased by 9.3% to 202,000 units [2] - From January to September, U.S. imports of tires from China totaled 1.692 million units, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with passenger car tire imports down by 37% to 750,000 units [2] - U.S. imports of tires from Thailand reached 5.628 million units, an increase of 14% year-on-year, with passenger car tires at 3.435 million units, up by 10% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia are contributing to rising overseas raw material prices, supporting rubber prices [3] - Tire production is gradually recovering, but overall output remains limited due to slow shipment rhythms and production control measures by companies [3] - Seasonal factors are affecting demand, particularly in northern regions where construction projects are winding down, leading to reduced replacement demand for all-steel tires [3] - The market is expected to remain in a state of indecision, with rubber prices likely to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1125.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Recent coking coal production has slightly decreased, while imported Mongolian coal has increased significantly. The supply - side support is limited, and downstream coke production has weakened, with no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [5] - **Market Performance**: As the market trades on supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased recently, and the price has started to oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, and the reduction on the demand side is more obvious, with relatively weak fundamentals [6] - **Market Performance**: In December, domestic high - level meetings have not released direct benefits for coke. The market maintains the fundamental logic. Affected by double pressure from the cost and demand sides, the coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the short term [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in coking coal and coke futures prices has increased, with traditional trading logic failing this year, leading to significant price declines in recent weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Coking coal and coke futures saw substantial declines, with coking coal dropping 17% in November and coke prices falling 11% during the same period [3]. - The main futures contracts for both coking coal and coke experienced a sharp drop in the last trading session [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal prices have been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including increased imports and a decline in demand from steel mills, which have seen a reduction in iron output [3][4]. - Domestic coking coal production remains low, with recent weekly output at 1.9 million tons, the lowest for this time of year, while premium coal production is at 754,000 tons, significantly below last year's levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for coking coal prices is bearish, with expectations of stable supply but weak demand as the market enters a seasonal lull [4][5]. - The current futures contract for coking coal has dropped to around 1,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream spot warehouse receipt cost exceeds 1,100 yuan per ton, indicating a significant premium [4].