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五矿期货能源化工日报-20250814
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]
宏观情绪提振,氯碱震荡走高
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 07:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Wait - and - See [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC: Affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC market has fluctuated upwards, but the fundamentals remain weak. Supply is increasing while demand is weak, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with cost support remaining weak [3] - Caustic Soda: Supply is at a high level, and although there may be a slight decline later, demand has some rigid support. The cost support is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+37), the East China basis is - 167 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 107 yuan/ton (+3) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4940 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The blue charcoal price is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 252 yuan/ton (-231), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 489 yuan/ton (-10), and the PVC export profit is 9.0 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - PVC Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [1] - Downstream Order Situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2502 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 503.78 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [2] - Downstream Operation of Caustic Soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: After the previous maintenance, production has resumed, and the overall operation has increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual mass production of new capacity, PVC production is expected to continue to rise, and the supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3] - Inventory: Due to the increase in production and weak demand, the PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high [3] - Cost: The calcium carbide price is weak, and ethylene is mainly stable. The cost support for PVC is still weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period. Although some enterprises have reduced their production, and Yantai Wanhua is planning maintenance, the operation may decline slightly later. Attention should be paid to the operation in Shandong from late August to September [3] - Demand: The alumina profit is acceptable, and the operation continues to rise. The delivery volume to the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum operation has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3] - Cost: The liquid chlorine price has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the cost support for caustic soda is strong. The chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread - Cross - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait - and - See - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None [4]
铁矿石基本面现实偏强 预计短期维持区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-12 05:51
8月12日,国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红。其中,铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报790.0元/吨,今日盘中 高位震荡运行;截至午间收盘,铁矿石主力最高触及801.5元,下方探低787.5元,涨幅达2.17%。 中财期货分析称,供给端,铁矿石发运、到港均有所上升,预计后续铁矿石发运、到港将有所回升,供 应端整体偏弱。需求端,钢厂按需补库,日均铁水产量持续高位,钢厂在利润较好的情况下生产积极性 整体偏强,需求端整体偏强。库存端,台风影响陆续结束,预计疏港量将有所回落,港口库存将小幅累 库。现阶段铁矿石基本面现实偏强,需重点关注钢厂的限产节奏与力度,预计铁矿石价格震荡运行。 建信期货表示,现阶段黑色板块盘面价格走势主要受到宏观情绪的影响,反内卷相关品种炒作情绪依然 存在,但铁矿受到的影响几乎可以忽略不计,价格已逐步回归基本面,考虑到钢厂维持高产为矿价提供 支撑,预计短期矿价将呈现高位盘整运行走势。 目前来看,铁矿石行情呈现震荡上行走势,盘面表现偏强。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行,相关机构 观点汇总如下: 华联期货指出,本期外矿发运量小幅回落,全球铁矿发运总量环比减少15.1万吨至3046.7万吨,同时, 外矿到港量也有所回 ...
玻璃:情绪有所企稳,关注月末补库力度,纯碱:基本面未改善,短期震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:19
Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]
邓正红能源软实力:供应预期回升 宏观情绪转弱 空头主导油价 下行空间有限
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 04:50
Group 1 - Oil prices have limited downside potential, but a rebound depends on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased oil purchases from India [1][3] - OPEC's strategy has shifted from "price stabilization" to "market share," leading to increased global oil supply and downward pressure on prices [2][3] - U.S. gasoline demand during the driving season has been below 9 million barrels per day, lower than the five-year average, indicating weak consumption [2][3] Group 2 - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, raising concerns about a potential economic recession and weakening oil demand forecasts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, are contributing to uncertainty in global oil demand [3] - Future oil price movements will depend on the rebalancing of soft power factors, including tariff negotiations, oil-producing countries' capacity efficiency, and geopolitical reconciliation processes [3]
建信期货铝日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:51
Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]
宝城期货原油早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250806
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:36
Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil continued to decline. The September contract of WTI closed down $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7%. The October contract of Brent closed down $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. The SC2509 closed at 502.5 yuan per barrel, down 6.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels [1]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March [1]. - Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day. India started to purchase oil from the US and Canada. It is reported that Indian Oil Corporation bought crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East through tender, scheduled to arrive in September [1]. - The market's concern about oversupply is significant, and the price center of oil continues to decline. The view is "volatile and weak" [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan per ton [1]. - In August, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil remains sufficient, and demand may show signs of weakening. The fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. The view is "volatile and weak" [1][3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.58% at 3,544 yuan per ton [3]. - In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, and asphalt supply is expected to decrease. Refinery inventories are generally controllable, and North China's main refineries may continue low - production in the short term to deliver previous contracts, with limited supply growth. In the southern market, rainfall has decreased, demand is expected to improve, and terminal construction after the rainy season has positive support. The demand for modified asphalt in Shandong's highway projects has been released intensively, driving an increase in terminal capacity utilization [3]. - In the short term, the asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and spot prices are relatively firm. The risk lies in the fluctuation of crude oil prices at the cost end. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes. The view is "volatile" [3]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.34%; the spot offer was at a discount of 13 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,399 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.23%, with the basis increasing by 3 yuan per ton to 83 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,463 yuan per ton. The main PX futures contract 509 closed at 6,734 yuan per ton, down 0.3%. The spot negotiation price was $839 per ton, equivalent to 6,901 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 58 yuan per ton to 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally light, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is preparing to restart, and its 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to shut down for maintenance soon. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia shut down due to an accident recently, with an initial estimated shutdown time of about one week [3]. - OPEC+ continues to over - produce, the cost - end oil price is further pressured, downstream demand has resilience support, and the terminal operating load is at a low level in the off - season. TA prices are under pressure. The view is "volatile and weak" [3][5]. Rubber - On Tuesday, as of the day - session close, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 180 yuan per ton to 14,545 yuan per ton, the main NR contract rose 140 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton, and the main butadiene rubber BR contract rose 120 yuan per ton to 11,515 yuan per ton [5]. - The weather in rubber - producing areas is currently good, and raw material prices have loosened. Downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and exports will decline, while domestic demand has stable growth. Fundamentally, rubber supply increases while demand is stable. With the peak season gradually materializing, there is pressure on the upside of rubber prices. The view is "volatile" [5]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,373 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,085 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $269 - 273 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $331 - 336 per ton. In the downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,045 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,280 - 2,350 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5,050 yuan per ton [5]. - Overall, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in August, but the expected increase in imports in August is not large, and demand changes little. Although inventory increases month - on - month, it will not increase significantly year - on - year, and the total inventory level is relatively low year - on - year. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a volatile trend [5]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,970 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP production was - 306.75 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 476.87 yuan per ton, the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 751.33 yuan per ton, the profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP production was - 229.24 yuan per ton, and the profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was 70.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,956 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,514 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,403 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the profit of oil - based polyethylene production was - 362 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based polyethylene production was 970 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, both supply and demand will start to recover, inventory will gradually transfer from society to downstream, and there are not many fundamental contradictions. Without a significant increase in the cost end, the overall upside space is limited. The view is "volatile" [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market fluctuated slightly. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was 4,840 - 4,910 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was about 5,000 - 5,300 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, prices rose and fell. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,760 - 4,950 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 5,060 - 5,210 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, prices increased. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,900 - 4,970 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based material was 5,020 - 5,100 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, the fundamental pressure on PVC has eased, and inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental trading after the supply - side reform trading. The main contract will switch to V2501, which is in the off - season of consumption. It is expected that prices will be volatile and weak, and the basis and monthly spread will gradually strengthen [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on August 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, basis changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc [7]. Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Analysts previously expected a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 400,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 800,000 barrels in distillate inventories [11]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March. Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day [11]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. It is also possible that there will not be two interest - rate cuts this year, but it is more likely that more cuts will be needed [11]. - US President Trump said that he will meet with Russia tomorrow. He will "wait and see" regarding tariffs on Russia and "quite possibly" impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil [11]. Chart Analysis Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [27][29][33]. Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 09 - 01), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), etc [41][43][46]. Inter - Commodity Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [59][62][65]. Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc [69][70][72]. Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [74][75][76].
PTA:宏观情绪企稳不过油价仍偏弱 短期PTA偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-06 02:05
Market Overview - On August 5, PTA futures experienced low-level narrow fluctuations, with a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. The basis was weak, and trading was mainly based on negotiations, with a small number of polyester factories making sales. Mainstream suppliers had some sales, with August cargo trading at a discount of 12 to 25 yuan/ton, and prices negotiated in the range of 4650 to 4660 yuan/ton. September transactions were at par and slightly above the September futures [1] Profitability - As of August 5, the PTA spot processing fee was around 140 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 271 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 1, PTA operating load decreased to 72.6%, a drop of 7.3%. - Demand: As of August 1, polyester operating load slightly decreased to approximately 88.1%, a decline of 0.6%. On August 5, the price of polyester filament showed a slight downward adjustment, with overall sales being sluggish. Current inventory levels at filament factories are manageable, and prices are mainly adjusting slightly with raw materials. Terminal loads are temporarily maintained, awaiting the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Future attention will be on crude oil prices and the initiation of the peak season [3] Market Outlook - With low processing fees, there will be an increase in PTA plant maintenance in August. The supply and demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations. However, with the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Helun Petrochemical and continued weak new orders from terminals, the medium-term supply and demand outlook for PTA is weak. Additionally, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase expectations. Short-term PTA is expected to experience weak fluctuations, but as market macro sentiment gradually stabilizes, there may be emotional support for PTA. Strategies include exiting TA short positions and monitoring support around 4600, as well as rolling back TA9-1 operations and expanding low PTA processing fees around 250 [4]
原油月报:基本面将迎来强弱转换拐点-20250804
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the roller - coaster market in June due to Middle - East conflicts, oil prices were generally volatile in July. Brent crude oil traded in the range of $65 - 73 per barrel. In the last week of July, influenced by Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and the sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data in the US, the oil price fluctuation increased significantly. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the oil price movement during the period with less prominent fundamental contradictions [3]. - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [3]. - The short - term oil price will oscillate within a range. If the absolute price returns to a high level, consider short - selling in the medium - term. A Brent crude oil backwardation strategy is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Price Spread: Geopolitical Concerns and Macro - sentiment Once Again Dominate the Market - In terms of absolute prices, after the June fluctuations, oil prices were volatile in July. Brent traded between $65 - 73 per barrel. In late July, geopolitical and macro - factors increased price volatility. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the market when fundamentals were less contradictory [10]. - Regarding monthly spreads, the monthly spreads of the three major benchmark crudes remained strong in July, with the near - month premium still very firm. The shape of the forward curve showed a premium structure at the near end and was close to flat at the far end. The monthly spreads of WTI and Brent were weaker than that of Dubai. The short - end structures of CFD and DFL were also relatively firm, indicating good physical demand during the refinery peak season [10]. - For physical discounts, the discounts of North Sea oil varieties were differentiated. The discounts of OseBerg and Johan Sverdrup decreased significantly. The discount of Azerbaijani Azeri crude dropped sharply due to organic chlorine pollution. The discount of West African oil decreased slightly, while the physical discounts of Middle - East oil varieties were firm. The discount of Guyanese crude in Latin America declined from a high level. In North America, the triangular spread of WTI in Cushing, Midland, and Houston narrowed again, indicating that the tight inventory situation in Cushing had not been completely alleviated [10]. - In terms of regional spreads, the Brent - Dubai EFS recently dropped to around $1 per barrel, showing an obvious trend of the East being stronger than the West. The WTI - Brent spread was maintained at around $3.3 per barrel [11]. - Regarding refined - oil spreads, the diesel crack spread and monthly spread declined from high levels. In the short term, factors such as the continuous decline in diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe, low diesel inventories in the West, and refinery operation issues drove the strong performance of European diesel in June. The east - west diesel spread continued to weaken, promoting more arbitrage shipments from the East to Europe and refineries to switch to diesel production for re - balancing. The diesel contradiction mainly came from the supply and trade sides rather than the demand side [11]. Petroleum Inventory: The Differentiation of Crude - oil Inventories between China and Overseas Continues - According to Kpler's high - frequency inventory data, as of the end of July, the global sea - land crude - oil inventory (excluding China and the US SPR inventory) was about 2.85 billion barrels, which was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. China's on - shore crude - oil inventory continued to increase, with a total of about 1.14 billion barrels (excluding underground SPR). China's high inventory was due to both the active replenishment of strategic reserves to hedge geopolitical risks and the passive inventory build - up caused by the decline in refinery processing volume [22]. - In terms of floating - storage crude - oil, as of the end of July, the global floating - storage crude - oil inventory rose to 89 million barrels, and the Iranian floating - storage crude - oil increased to 48 million barrels. Regarding refined - oil inventories, the global refined - oil inventory increased slightly last week, but the inventory level remained at a five - year low in the same period. Meanwhile, the European diesel inventory continued to decline, and the tight diesel spot situation had not been alleviated [22]. Crude - oil Shipments: Both Shipments and Arrivals Increase Simultaneously - In terms of global shipments, the global crude - oil shipments in July rose to the high level of the same period in the past five years. OPEC's shipments reached 20 million barrels per day but dropped below 17 million barrels per day in the last week of July (mainly due to Saudi Arabia's exports falling below 6 million barrels per day). It is expected that with OPEC's production increase and the decrease in direct - burning power - generation demand for crude oil in the Middle East in summer, OPEC's exports still have room to grow. Non - OPEC shipments reached a high of 21.5 million barrels per day this year. Latin American shipments increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, with the increased supply from Guyana and Brazil offsetting the decreased supply from Mexico and Ecuador. West African shipments were stable at 3.4 million barrels per day, and North African shipments (including transit shipments from Egypt) remained stable at 2.5 million barrels per day. In North America, Canada's crude - oil shipments remained at around 0.8 million barrels per day, and the US shipments remained at a low of 3.1 million barrels per day. The shipments from Russia in the former Soviet Union region dropped to 3.2 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's shipments remained at a high of 1.6 million barrels per day. Due to organic chlorine pollution, Azerbaijan's shipments dropped to 0.4 million barrels per day. In the North Sea, Norway's recent oil - field maintenance led to a drop in shipments to 1.5 million barrels per day [24]. - Regarding global arrivals, the recent arrivals rose to a high of 44.2 million barrels per day this year and in the same period of history. The arrivals in Northeast Asia remained at a high of 15.8 million barrels per day, South Asian arrivals increased slightly to 5 million barrels per day, Southeast Asian imports remained strong at 3.6 million barrels per day, the US arrivals dropped to 2.7 million barrels per day, and European arrivals increased significantly recently to 8.9 million barrels per day. As refineries reach their peak operating rates in mid - August and then decline, the arrivals will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, China's high crude - oil imports may reverse in the second half of the year, which will also drag down the arrivals [25][26]. Crude - oil Supply: OPEC Increases Production Cautiously, and Non - OPEC Non - US Production Increases Accelerate - OPEC+'s actual production increase still does not match the quota increase, indicating Saudi Arabia's cautious attitude towards production increase. OPEC's overall released supply is still very restricted. According to OPEC's plan to lift production limits, it will continuously increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day before September to completely cancel the 2.2 million barrels per day production limit. The negotiation between Iraq and Kurdistan on the resumption of oil exports has made some progress, but the Kurdish oil exports have not resumed, and the resumption requires the consent of Turkey [35]. - Recently, the supply situation in Latin America has improved significantly. Brazil's supply has grown strongly supported by the commissioning of four FPSO projects. Guyana is expected to install a new FPSO in the third quarter, one quarter earlier than the market expected. Recently, the two crude - oil pipelines in Ecuador have resumed operation, and Ecuador's crude - oil exports will resume. Argentina's crude - oil supply has continuously reached new highs [35]. - In the US, due to cautious capital expenditure and the slowdown of well - drilling and completion operations, it is expected that the US production will stabilize after reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, and the decline will not be significant. The commissioning of projects in the Gulf of Mexico will partially offset the decline in shale - oil production [35]. Refinery Maintenance and Profits: The Peak of Operating Rates is Approaching - The global refinery shutdown volume continued to decline seasonally. As of the week of July 25, the global shutdown capacity dropped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Refinery units in China, the former Soviet Union, Japan, and Latin America restarted. It is expected that the global refinery operating rate will reach its annual seasonal high in mid - August and then decline, entering the autumn maintenance period from September to October. Meanwhile, as the diesel crack spread declined from a high level, the global refinery profits decreased significantly, especially in the regions east of the Suez Canal [42]. Geopolitics: Trump Threatens Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil, and India Will Not Abandon Russian - oil Purchases - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, there has been no obvious progress in the cease - fire agreement. The 18th round of EU sanctions has increased the sanctions on Russian oil, including the implementation of a dynamically adjusted price cap on Russian oil and restrictions on third - country refineries from processing Russian oil and re - exporting it to Europe to plug the refining loophole. Trump plans to restore Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help stabilize Venezuela's crude - oil supply. In terms of tariffs, Trump has successively announced trade agreements with various countries, reducing the tariff risk. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, mainly targeting China, India, and Turkey, aiming to gain more benefits in tariff negotiations. China will ignore Trump's threat of Russian - oil tariffs, and India also said it will continue to purchase Russian crude oil. India currently purchases up to 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and is the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude oil since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There is no additional supply in the current market to fill the 2 million barrels per day supply gap of Russian oil [44][47]. Liquidity: Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Diesel, but Positions Are Overcrowded - Recently, in terms of fund positions, there has been a divergence between Brent and WTI. The net long positions of Brent funds have risen to a high level, while the net long positions of WTI funds have decreased significantly. In terms of refined - oil positions, the net long positions of European and US diesel funds are at a high level this year, indicating extremely crowded long positions and a relatively consistent bullish sentiment in the market [50]. Overall Forecast: The Fundamental Situation Will Enter a Turning Point from Strong to Weak in August - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [54].