Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's macroeconomic data, emerging market capital flows, and financial cooperation between China and Indonesia are influencing the stock price of Indonesia Telecom (TLK.N) [1] Recent Events - Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency reported a GDP growth of 5.11% year-on-year for 2025, the highest in three years, but Moody's downgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative," raising concerns about growth quality and fiscal sustainability [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing a sell-off, with Indonesia's benchmark stock index dropping by 3% in one day, and foreign capital outflows reaching record levels, reflecting heightened global risk aversion and concerns over high valuations in tech stocks [2] - A cross-border RMB trading forum was held in Indonesia, emphasizing the expansion of local currency settlement mechanisms to reduce exchange rate risks and enhance financial connectivity [2] Stock Performance - Indonesia Telecom (TLK.N) experienced a price fluctuation of 3.79% over the past week, with a volatility of 7.05%. Daily movements included a drop of 2.02% on February 5, a rise of 3.07% on February 6, and a rise of 1.74% on February 11 [3] - As of February 11, 2026, Indonesia Telecom's stock price was $21.06, with a daily increase of 1.71%, a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.01, and a dividend yield of 4.76% [3] - During the same period, the U.S. telecom services sector rose by 1.31%, but individual stock performance was significantly affected by Indonesia's macroeconomic sentiment and capital flows [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye emphasizes that its stock price is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, while the company remains focused on its core business to create long-term value for shareholders [2]. Group 1 - The company is committed to enhancing operational quality and strengthening its core competitiveness [2]. - Wuliangye aims to provide stable dividends to shareholders as part of its strategy to create long-term value [2].

一、中国宏观经济金融展望 2025 年，国民经济保持稳中有进态势，高质量发展取得新成效， 现代产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，民生保障更加有 力，经济 社会发展主要目标圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。全年国 内生产总值 （ GDP ） 同比增长 5% ，经济总量突破 140 万亿元。2026 年经济持续稳 中向好有条件、有支撑。 一是经济平稳发展的基础不断夯实。 "十四五"时期，经济总量稳步增长，粮食产量连 续两年站稳 1.4 万亿斤的台阶，制造业增加值连续 16 年稳 居世界首位，我国成为 150 多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，经济底盘更实、抗风险能力更强。 2025 年 12 月，制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ） 和非制造业商业活动指数双双重回扩张区间，经济稳中向好的积极因素不断积累。 二是新动能持续壮大。 2025 年，我国研发投入强度达到 2.8% ，首次超过 OECD 国家平均水平，创新指数排名进入全球前十，国际 专利申请量 连续 6 年位居全球第一，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重达到 17.1% 。人工智能等新一代信息技术蓬勃发展，银发经济、冰雪 经济等持续升温，不断激发经济活 ...

重磅！"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"名单揭晓 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛荣膺"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"！ 精彩观点回顾： 管涛：解读2025年中国经济收官答卷 管涛：从宏观视角展望2026年中国资本市场机遇 管涛："灵活高效"的货币政策意味着什么 管涛：人民币国际化急需六大配套改革 管涛："十五五"时期中国资本市场面临重大机遇 管涛：年内宏观政策或需适时加力 2025年，中国经济承压前行、向新向优，财政更加积极、货币适度宽松，宏观政策协同提效、精准发 力，推动经济运行稳中有进、高质量发展取得新成效。立足变局交织与转型攻坚的关键阶段，宏观经济 学家们紧扣时代脉搏，以全局视野、专业研判与扎实立论洞察发展大势；他们聚焦新质生产力、内需提 振、风险化解与长期增长建言献策，在变局中厘清发展逻辑，于前行中领航宏观方向。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品前瞻性、出产率等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025 ...

2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（腊月初六到腊月十九），水 泥发运率、磨机运转率处于农历同期历史中高位，石油沥青装置开工率处于农历 同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年农历同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（腊月 初六到腊月十九），整体工业开工率仍处农历同期历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开 工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽车钢胎开工率处于同期历史 中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，家电销售有所回暖。最近两周(腊月初六到腊月十九)， 螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求处于历史同期低位。乘用车四周滚动销量同比延续 负增，中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中高位，主要家电销售有所回暖。 商品价格：国内工业品价震荡偏强运行 相关研究报告 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 《 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a significant restructuring of macroeconomic policies, focusing on long-term stability and structural adjustments rather than merely smoothing short-term fluctuations. The year marks a transition towards quality-driven growth and a proactive transformation of the economy [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain a high intensity, with a deficit rate expected to remain between 4.0% and 4.2%, translating to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan in deficit. This aims to boost effective demand and facilitate the transition between old and new growth drivers [6][7]. - Monetary policy is set to shift towards "moderate easing," with expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter and interest rate reductions in the second quarter, aimed at stimulating credit demand and supporting fiscal efforts [10][12]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment is projected to recover, with growth rates expected to rise to 3.0%-3.5%. Infrastructure investment will be the main driver, anticipated to grow by around 5.5%, supported by fiscal measures [13][15]. - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain resilient, with a growth rate of about 5.0%, as companies shift focus from expansion to upgrading capabilities, aided by a structural shift towards high-value intermediate and capital goods [15]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - Consumer spending is expected to transition from stimulus-driven growth to normalized growth, with retail sales growth projected at 4.0%-4.5%. Durable goods consumption will stabilize, while service consumption is anticipated to become the largest incremental growth area, driven by policy support [17]. Group 4: External Trade and Balance - China's export structure is evolving from "end-product manufacturing" to "industrial base," enhancing export resilience. The export growth rate is expected to remain around 5.5%, supported by a shift towards high-value products [21][24]. - The focus on deepening cooperation with emerging markets will facilitate a transition from simple product exports to a model of "technology + capacity," which is expected to provide a solid foundation for maintaining export growth [24].

海外高频 | 欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源宏观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

Group 1 - The investment strategy remains constructive on equities despite concerns over AI overinvestment and weaker job growth, supported by macro data and earnings breadth [2][4] - A significant market rotation has been observed since October, marking the first broadening in four years, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators [2][4] - The recent soft jobs data has contributed to favorable conditions for the market, as it has led to rate cuts by the Fed and lower mortgage rates, which are seen as beneficial for a soft landing [5][6] Group 2 - Expectations for continued soft jobs data are anticipated, which may not lead to a sharp deterioration in employment, aligning with the bullish narrative of the past couple of years [6][7] - Early cyclical macro data has shown improvement, with notable PMI data in January indicating the best performance in four years, suggesting potential job market recovery later this year [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of the precious metals market may decline. The US employment and inflation data this week will be the core variables. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, gold and silver may have a chance to make up for lost ground [2]. - In the medium to long term, the actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. As market sentiment calms down, the precious metals market may return to the pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds [2]. - The support range for London gold is $4,700 - $4,800 per ounce, and the resistance range is $5,200 - $5,300 per ounce. The support range for London silver is $65 - $70 per ounce, and the resistance range is $90 - $95 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 35.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 2,074 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 158,759 lots, down 5,081 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 9,210 lots, down 38 lots [2]. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 331,307 lots, down 163,435 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,015,255 lots, down 276,289 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 104,052 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 318,546 kilograms, down 31,354 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,116.02 yuan, up 22.17 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19,595 yuan, up 2,485 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.92 yuan per gram, down 13.65 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 1,278 yuan per gram, up 411 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,076.23 tons, down 1.72 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 16,191.09 tons, down 56.36 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 165,604 contracts, down 39,792 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 25,877 contracts, up 2,174 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, down 0.35; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88, down 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.76, down 4.01; the CBOE gold volatility index is 33.96, down 1.57 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 66.03, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio is 4.44, up [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached 57.3, the highest level in six months. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2]. - China's central bank's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that buy goods and services from sanctioned Iran, which took effect on February 7 [2]. - The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached with India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, various foods and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2]. - The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that this round of consultations was a "good start" [2]. - Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth is expected to help inflation fall back to the central bank's 2% target [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - February 10, 21:30, US January retail sales data [2]. - February 11, 21:30, US January non - farm payrolls data [2]. - February 13, 21:30, US January CPI data [2].