Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

首先，宏观数据持续披露，市场聚焦国内经济状态。 通胀数据披露后，10 月的金融数据紧接而来。数据上看，投融资需求相对平稳，货币供应量略 有回落。当然，市场对今年政策的靠前发力，经济数据呈现前高后低还是有预期的。因此，目前宏观总量的影响相对有限。而海外市场近期有所调整，主 要是关于AI 的发展进程有不小分歧，引发了美国科技公司的集体调整。这多少影响到了上周的市场结构，A股TMT板块跌幅居前。当然市场仍是平衡格 局，有调整的板块，必然有上升的板块，总体呈现高低切换，风格偏防守。 上周市场表现分化，量能小幅回升。 沪指上周一路向上反弹，周五盘中创出新高后，开始向下回落，收盘跌破了5天均线。深圳成指上周围绕短期均 线来回波动，周五收盘亦跌破5天均线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能 20000 亿元左右，较前周略有增加。上周市场热点主要集中在大消费行业。投资风 格方面，以中证2000为代表的小盘股和以上证50为代表的大盘蓝筹股有超额收益，科技股领跌。从运行节奏看，沪指围绕4000点附近反复拉锯，深圳成指 处于整理形态。沪指10月底出现一波调整，最终在20天均线附近止跌回升，上周五创出新高后有所回落，总体处于4000点附近来 ...

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 伦铅偏强支撑 沪铅调整有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，美国政府结 束关门，但基于通胀的担忧，多位美联储官员发表偏 鹰言论，降息预期下调，同时国内经济数据持续疲软， 拖累市场风险偏好，铅价走势承压。 要点 基本面看，原料供应紧缺态势难改，内外铅精矿加工 费弱稳。河南地区维持环保管控，影响废旧电瓶拆解， 同时受铅价上涨影响，部分持货商捂货不出，带动废 旧电瓶报价小幅上涨，成本支撑 ...

Group 1 - The creation of money is a complex economic issue, with U.S. Treasury bonds playing a crucial role in the global monetary system [1][2] - The U.S. government raises funds through the issuance of national debt, which reflects as liabilities on the balance sheet, and this process is not merely about printing money but involves debt financing [1] - The debt ceiling set by the U.S. Congress determines the scale of Treasury bond issuance, indicating that the U.S. is effectively borrowing from the global market [1] Group 2 - The repayment of government debt is necessary, typically managed by borrowing new debt to pay off old debt, highlighting the importance of credit in modern currency systems [1] - The value of modern currency is fundamentally based on national credit, which is derived from comprehensive national strength, including productivity, technology, military, and economic factors [1][2] - Understanding the mechanisms of money creation and the role of debt is essential for grasping economic operations and responding to economic changes and challenges [2]

省发展改革委产业发展处处长赵牧： 十多年耕耘，当好宏观经济的"解读者"与"实干家" 海南日报全媒体记者 王培琳 近日，海南日报全媒体记者见到省发展改革委产业发展处处长赵牧时，他刚完成产业政策对接沟通 工作，行色匆匆赶回办公室。赵牧的办公桌上，堆着一叠厚厚的文件材料和眼花缭乱的数据表。同样是 在这间办公室，他在数不清的日夜里观察、思考、谋划和推动经济发展。日前，他荣获第五届海南 省"人民满意的公务员"称号。 1984年出生的赵牧，长期在省发展改革委综合经济岗位工作，曾任综合处处长。法律专业出身的他 初入发改系统时，对于宏观经济特别是"GDP"的理解只是书本上的定义和新闻报道中的只言片语。经过 十多年工作实践，如今他看到的是GDP背后的经济结构和增速，由供给侧的现代化产业体系，需求侧 的"三驾马车"，物价、就业等构成的经济运行整体情况。 "我特别担心，做宏观分析久了，只盯着指标起起落落，而与微观经济活动脱节。"为了防止这种钝 化，赵牧主导创新指标运行"穿透式分析方法"，推动从综合统计指标穿透到分行业统计指标，从业务量 数据穿透到微观市场主体生产经营情况。为了让"穿透式"分析能够触达企业，赵牧与同事们依托"海易 办 ...

for more on the state of the economy and the the murky macro picture here. We are joined by Vincent Reinhardt, BNY investments chief economist, former Fed economist, do do you expect them to not cut in December, Vince, at this point. >> Oh, I I think they'll cut.And I think your conversation just now was exactly right. And you asked the right question, as did as did, Carl. Uh the answer, what has changed over the last couple months.Not a whole lot. We don't have a lot of data to support a a a changed outloo ...

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a significant increase of 8% [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China rose by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in communication and cultural office supplies, which saw increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking a continuous increase over six months [2] - The improvement in price data is attributed to macroeconomic policy effects and a balanced supply-demand relationship, indicating a comprehensive enhancement in macroeconomic conditions and industry prosperity [2] Policy Measures - Local governments have allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance fiscal capacity and expand effective investment, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools supporting over 2,300 projects, totaling approximately 7 trillion yuan in investment, focusing on digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The recent monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and balancing short-term growth stabilization with long-term structural adjustments, reflecting a commitment to support the real economy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The market conditions of L and PP plastics fluctuate daily, with prices showing various trends such as increases, decreases, and narrow - range movements. The supply and demand situation, along with factors like production capacity utilization, inventory, and external events, influence these price changes. [1][4] - Different factors, including economic indicators (e.g., PMI, GDP - related indices), industry - specific data (e.g., production ratios, import/export volumes), and geopolitical events, have both positive and negative impacts on the plastics market. [2][5] - The trading strategies for L and PP plastics vary daily, including suggestions like holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and deciding on whether to engage in arbitrage or option trading. [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price shows different trends such as continuous weakening,涨跌互现, and partial increases or decreases. The trading atmosphere is often affected by factors like futures trends, with downstream procurement being cautious. [1][4] - **PP Plastic**: The PP2601 contract price also fluctuates. The PP market may be weak, narrow - moving, or show small increases or decreases. The relationship between futures and the spot market affects the price and trading volume, and downstream demand is generally cautious. [1][4] Important Information - **Industry Conferences and Policies**: Various industry - related conferences are held, summarizing achievements and looking forward to future plans. Policies are also introduced to promote the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". [1][50] - **Company Achievements**: Some companies achieve significant results, like PetroChina Huabei Petrochemical Company reaching a high production ratio of polypropylene special materials, and Guangxi Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting up successfully. [1][25] - **International and Geopolitical Events**: There are international events such as the potential military action of the US against Venezuela and the impact of US tariff policies on global enterprises. [59][62] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: The production capacity utilization rates of PE and PP change over time, with some periods of increase and others of decrease. The net import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene also show different trends, affecting the market. [2][55] - **Economic Indicators**: Economic indicators such as the PMI of different countries, the global economic policy uncertainty index, and various industry - specific indices have impacts on the plastics market, either positively or negatively. [2][23] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions include holding long or short positions for L and PP main 01 contracts, and setting appropriate stop - loss points according to market conditions. [2][5] - **Arbitrage**: In most cases, it is recommended to wait and see, but there are also some specific suggestions for certain spreads. [2][5] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, with a few exceptions where specific option contracts are given trading suggestions. [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 13th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodity futures advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver, polysilicon and apples, while the top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil and crude oil [10][11][12]. - Silver prices may rise further if gold prices maintain a volatile and strong trend and the US dollar continues to pull back; 20 -号胶 prices are likely to maintain a bottom - volatile trend with strong elasticity but may face downward adjustment pressure; crude oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [17][26][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 13th, China's financial futures: IC and IM both gained 1.7%; TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, most advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [9]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver (up 5.5% with open interest decreasing 1.6% month - on - month), polysilicon (up 3.7% with open interest increasing 2.4% month - on - month) and apples (up 3.3% with open interest up 13.0% month - on - month). The top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil (down 4.4% with open interest falling 10.6% month - on - month), fuel oil (down 3.7% with open interest increasing 20.9% month - on - month) and crude oil (down 3.7% with open interest decreasing 19.3% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On November 13th, silver rose 5.5% to 12,588 yuan/kg. London market supply tightness alleviated in October, with silver inventories in London vaults surging by about 54 million ounces. Spot prices are supported by capital momentum and have broken through the previous psychological threshold. Weak corporate confidence and slowing employment may lead to further strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, supporting silver prices [15][16][17]. - **TSR20**: On November 13th, TSR20 rose 1.8% to 12,400 yuan/ton. China entered the rubber - tapping suspension period in November, and RU - related themes still have speculation space. The supply - demand pattern of natural rubber has not changed significantly, but from a seasonal perspective, rubber prices may face downward adjustment pressure [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On November 13th, crude oil fell 3.7% to 449.5 yuan/barrel. API data showed US crude oil inventories continued to build up and refined oil inventories declined last week. OPEC revised down its global supply - demand balance forecast, while EIA indicated US crude oil production remains resilient. Oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO Member States in Moscow from November 17 - 18, pay an official visit to Zambia from November 19 - 20, and attend the 20th G20 Summit in Johannesburg from November 21 - 23 [40]. 2.2 Industry News - The market value of A - shares held by foreign investors currently exceeds RMB 3.5 trillion, and efforts will be made to include more futures and options products in the scope of opening - up [41]. - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume and turnover of China's national futures market increased by 14.86% and 21.82% year - on - year, respectively [41].