1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, despite increased cost support, weak demand and high inventory levels suggest a bearish outlook. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, although there are signs of production increase and cost stability, overall demand is currently declining but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is predicted to oscillate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 20.23% decrease from the previous week, remaining persistently weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,139 yuan/ton, with increased cost support during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 810 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 602,000 tons, a 1.63% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 251,900 tons, a 1.46% decrease; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Forecast: Supply production is decreasing, demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is rising. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The predicted production for April is 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.38 GW, a 1.40% decrease; inventory was 195,300 tons, a 7.18% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,940 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3,560 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On April 29th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 259,000 tons, a 3.18% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical data [11]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Forecast: Supply production continues to increase, while demand for silicon wafers may decrease in the medium - term after a short - term increase. Battery cell and component production are on the rise. Overall demand is currently weak but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market overview: It includes price changes of different contracts, inventory data, production, and basis information [17]. - Polysilicon market overview: Covers price changes of different contracts, production, inventory, and cost data [19]. - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: Analyzes the historical trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [21]. - Industrial silicon inventory: Displays historical inventory data of different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: Shows the historical production and capacity utilization of different regions [25]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: Presents the historical cost and profit trends of different regions [31]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets: Analyze the supply - demand balance situation of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [33][36]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: Includes price, production, inventory, and import - export data of organic silicon products [39]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: Covers price, supply, inventory, and production data of aluminum alloy products, as well as related demand data from the automotive and wheel hub industries [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: Analyzes the fundamental trends, supply - demand balance, and cost - profit data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...