1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the TMT sector is booming, but the overall market volume is shrinking. The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank policies and market sentiment, showing a mixed situation. The precious metals market is driven by overseas political turmoil and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes, with prices reaching new highs. The shipping index shows a volatile trend, and the commodity futures market, including non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products, also presents different supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares strengthened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted. The consumer electronics sector led the rise, while the consumer - related sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: Domestic news includes a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry. Overseas, there are differences between South Korea and the US on a $350 billion investment [3][4]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the trading volume of A - shares decreased. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to shock. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 to collect premiums when the index pulls back [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds continued to improve [6]. - **Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy is supportive, and it will ensure liquidity and promote the decline of social financing costs [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still mixed. It is recommended to operate within the range, and consider the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to the political turmoil in Argentina and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rate cuts, the precious metals market was driven by risk - aversion sentiment, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs [8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is above $41 [10]. - **Funding**: The Fed's loose monetary policy stimulates institutional investors to increase their holdings of ETFs [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 22, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies are in different ranges [11]. - **Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index decreased by 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9%, the Shanghai - US West freight rate increased by 31%, and the Shanghai - US East freight rate decreased by 23% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.35% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile. It is expected that the spot inflection point will appear in mid - to - late October, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is advisable to consider the spread arbitrage between the 12 - month and 10 - month contracts [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the market procurement sentiment weakened when the price returned to around 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the future interest rate cut path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data [13][14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the price correction, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [16]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak. The market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides support for the price [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply pattern was gradually loosening [17]. - **Supply**: In August, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected to continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [18]. - **Logic**: The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the market trading activity increased [19]. - **Supply**: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries were in the process of recovery [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is generally positive, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly in September [22]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it is expected to recover moderately in September [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the cost support is significant. The demand is gradually recovering, and the spot price is expected to remain firm in the short term [23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased slightly, and some downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [23][24]. - **Supply**: The import TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease slightly in September but increase year - on - year [24]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased in the peak season, and the inventory of raw materials increased [25]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [25]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 22, the price of 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The trading activity decreased after the price increase [26][27]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore import volume in August was at a low level, and the tin ingot import volume decreased [28]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a tight - balance situation [29]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply side provides support for the price. Attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased slightly [30]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is weak, while the demand for alloys is relatively good. The price of nickel sulfate has increased recently but may face pressure in the medium term [31]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a high level and increased, while the domestic social inventory increased slightly and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 and 125,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of chromium ore is rising [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August and September increased [34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of narrow - range fluctuation. The cost support is significant, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: The production in August increased, and it continued to increase in September. The supply is affected by new projects and imports [37][38]. - **Demand**: The demand is stable and optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. The demand in September and October is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - **Logic**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton in the short term [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply - demand relationships. The profit of steel products has declined [40]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased in the first eight months, and the production of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [40]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat in the first eight months. The export of steel products supported the valuation [40]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to go long lightly and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or increased slightly [44]. - **Futures**: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly [44]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increased, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. The spot auction price showed signs of stabilization and rebound [47][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mines in the main production areas continued to resume production, and the import coal price followed the futures price [49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production continued to increase, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal market is moving towards a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures fluctuated and declined. Some coking enterprises started to raise prices [50][52]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [50]. - **Supply**: The coking enterprises in the north have high enthusiasm for resuming production [52]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the demand for coke was supported [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with the coking plant inventory decreasing and the steel mill and port inventories increasing [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke spot price is expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot prices of soybean meal increased on September 22, and the trading volume increased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [53]. - **Fundamentals**: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The US is expected to increase soybean planting next year, and the soybean planting in Brazil has started [53][54]. - **Market Outlook**: The cancellation of the export tax in Argentina put pressure on the US soybean and domestic oil - meal markets. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [56]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated weakly, with prices in various regions decreasing [57]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm for slaughtering by farmers and second - fattening increased [57]. - **Market Outlook**: The pressure on live pig slaughter is high, and the spot price is difficult to improve before the National Day. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between different contracts [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined, the valuation pressure has decreased, the maintenance volume is low, and the production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will be tested. On the downstream side, domestic operations have improved. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India has been determined, and exports are expected to weaken after implementation. The cost of calcium carbide has continued to rebound, while caustic soda has declined, leading to stronger overall valuation support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real - estate demand, and the industry pattern has deteriorated. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity. Overall, given the current situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, with the weakening export outlook, even if the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there will be a small rebound due to stronger valuation support, improved domestic demand, and a better commodity atmosphere. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has decreased, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased slightly. Currently, the valuation support is neutral [11] - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to the reduced loads of enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, Zhongtai, Henan Yuhang, and Haohua. The load is expected to pick up slightly next week. The overall maintenance volume in September is expected to decline, and multiple devices are expected to be commissioned and put into production, further increasing the supply pressure [11] - **Demand**: Regarding exports, the final anti - dumping tax rate ruling result in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Exports are expected to decline after implementation. The operations of the three major downstream industries continued to improve last week. The load of the pipe industry is 39.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%; the load of the film industry is 76.9%, remaining flat month - on - month; the load of the profile industry is 39.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The overall downstream operations have stabilized and improved. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 756,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons [11] - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 306,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons; the social inventory was 954,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The basis and price spread in the futures and spot market are fluctuating weakly, but specific data and analysis details are not provided in the text, only relevant charts are mentioned [16] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined, and the valuation is neutral. The text also provides charts showing the profit trends of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide - based production, PVC ethylene - based production, and Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide production [40] - **Inventory**: The text provides charts showing the inventory trends of PVC in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts [34][37][39] 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices have continued to rebound. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has increased week - on - week. The text also provides charts showing the price trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate [47][49] - **Other Raw Materials**: Semi - coke prices have risen, while caustic soda prices have fallen. The text provides charts showing the price trends of semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot prices [52][53] 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the production capacity of PVC will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Multiple enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) will put new production capacity into operation. The total planned new production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year [61][66] 6. Demand Side - The operating loads of the three major downstream industries of PVC have continued to improve. The operating rates of pipes, films, and profiles have either increased or remained stable. The pre - sales volume of PVC has also increased. However, regarding exports, due to the anti - dumping tax rate ruling in India, exports are expected to decline [78][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: Short - term expected to be volatile and weak. PX11 to be treated as oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Short - term to oscillate between 4600 - 4800; TA1 - 5 to be rolled in reverse arbitrage. Mid - term supply - demand is weak [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: 9 - month outlook is positive, but Q4 is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. EG to be observed unilaterally; EG1 - 5 for reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Low - level support exists, but rebound drive is weak. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; processing fees to oscillate between 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: PR to follow cost, with limited upside for processing fees. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; main - contract processing fees to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures are weakly operating. Supply is rising while demand lacks growth. Policy intervention on coal prices cannot reverse the surplus. Short - term, the futures are expected to be weak [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decline due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, but overall, it may continue to be weak in the short - term. Spot prices may stabilize [11]. - **PVC**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decrease due to maintenance, and demand is slightly improving. Cost support is at the bottom. It can be short - sold at high levels [11]. Methanol Industry - Supply is at a high level, and inventory is relatively healthy. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Valuation is neutral. The market is wavering between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations. Follow - up focus on inventory inflection points [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. Short - term price is affected by geopolitics and macro factors. BZ2603 to follow styrene oscillations [60]. - **Styrene**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. Port inventory is declining, but still restricts price increases. EB10 to be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 - BZ11 to be widened at low levels [60]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating. The refined oil market provides support, but macro - economic concerns limit the upside. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Unilateral observation is recommended [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: PP has more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, with a weak basis. PE has more maintenance, a rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand orders are poor. Focus on pre - holiday restocking [68]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) decreased by 0.8% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% to 6680 yuan/ton; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7960 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased; PX - crude decreased by 1% to 397 dollars/ton [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4630 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 1% to 4712 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory decreased by 460,000 tons to 9.4 million tons; EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% to 4297 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: Urea 01 contract decreased by 0.65% to 1670 yuan/ton; methanol main - contract decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Shandong (small - particle) decreased by 0.61% to 1640 yuan/ton; FOB China: small - particle remained unchanged at 424 dollars/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82% to 195,600 tons; enterprise inventory increased by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.4% to 2500 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.7% to 5347 yuan/ton [11]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port increased by 1.3% to 395 dollars/ton; export profit increased by 120.2% to 5.8 yuan/ton [11]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 3% to 650 dollars/ton; export profit decreased by 77.2% to 13.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PVC total operating rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%; alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5% to 82.8% [11]. Methanol Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2601 decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia north - line spot decreased by 0.95% to 2090 yuan/ton [55]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%; methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% to 1.558 million tons [55]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%; downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08% [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5% to 738 dollars/ton; pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 4.5% to 130 dollars/ton [60]. - **Styrene - related Prices**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7100 yuan/ton; EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% to 7062 yuan/ton [60]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% to 159,000 tons [60]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 79.096%; domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 5.9% to 75% [60]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; SC decreased by 1.27% to 490 yuan/barrel [63]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13% to 201.4 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% to 702.5 dollars/ton [63]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: European gasoline decreased by 2.44% to 19.03 dollars/barrel; US diesel decreased by 2.48% to 34.45 dollars/barrel [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2601 decreased by 0.79% to 7188 yuan/ton; PP2601 decreased by 0.8% to 6926 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP raffia decreased by 0.59% to 6760 yuan/ton; North China LDPE film decreased by 0.56% to 7120 yuan/ton [68]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 451,000 tons; PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 582,000 tons [68]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%; PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soda ash and float glass are currently at historically low levels, with high risks associated with short - selling. Given strong macro - expectations and the "anti - involution" backdrop, the price centers of soda ash and glass are expected to gradually rise. It is not advisable to chase short positions at low prices. Instead, one can wait for long - entry opportunities when prices break upwards [14][84]. - For soda ash, although production and inventory remain high and demand recovery is slow, increasing exports may support prices. For glass, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand is slow, and high production and inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Report 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of soda ash was 1167 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week and 79 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1267 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [13][19]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [13][30]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][44]. - **Demand**: In August, the start - up rate and production of float glass increased, driving short - term soda ash demand. However, the increase in float - glass inventory at the end of August may have a negative feedback effect on soda ash demand. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and the inventory pressure was low. If the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [13][58]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][69]. - **Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [13][64]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [19]. - **Difference between Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of September 2, 2025, the price difference between dense and light soda ash in North China was 100 yuan/ton, and in East China was 120 yuan/ton, showing little change and remaining within a reasonable range [22]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of soda ash futures was - 80 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [25]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [30][33]. - **Raw Material Costs**: As of September 2, 2025, the price of raw salt in Northwest China remained unchanged from the previous week, and the price of动力煤 changed little, with a slight decline in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia changed little from the previous week and remained at a relatively low level year - on - year. These factors have little impact on soda ash prices [36][39]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Production**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [44]. - **Production of Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of August 29, 2025, the production of dense soda ash was 38.32 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons from the previous week, and the production of light soda ash was 33.59 tons, a decrease of 1.03 tons from the previous week. With fewer maintenance plans in September, production is expected to remain high [47]. - **Soda Ash Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of soda ash in August first increased and then decreased. With fewer planned maintenance enterprises in September, the start - up rate is expected to remain at the current level [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The increase in float - glass production drove short - term soda ash demand, but the increase in float - glass inventory may have a negative impact. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and if the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [58][61]. - **Soda Ash Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [64]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [69]. 3.2 Glass Report 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous week and 115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1134 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [83][89]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [83][97]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [83][108]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, 2025, the start - up rate of Low - e glass was 48.10%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month. As of September 1, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.85 days from the beginning of the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [83][113]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [83][126]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [89]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of glass futures was - 99 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [92]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [97]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Start - up Rate**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [108]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass increased slightly, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. The real - estate transaction volume improved slightly but remained relatively low compared to historical levels [113][119]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].