Group 1 - The new order revealed at the Davos Forum indicates intensified competition and resource battles, with commodities showing a "polarized" pattern driven by supply-demand mismatches and policy expectations [1] - Precious metals are in a solid bull market, with silver showing better elasticity due to rising Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Silver's demand is surging due to photovoltaic needs and global inventory shortages, with domestic export controls widening the supply-demand gap, targeting a price of 25,000 yuan/kg for silver [1] Group 2 - The energy and industrial metals sector is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with a confirmed oversupply in crude oil leading to a downward price adjustment [1] - Copper is supported by AI computing power and electricity grid investment demand, with limited supply growth from mines, making it a strategic long position [1] - Aluminum benefits from reduced costs and capacity constraints, presenting a stable long position choice [1] Group 3 - Current data shows that U.S. employment and inflation are slowing, but some sectors are improving under the influence of Fed rate cuts, leading to a cautious outlook [3] - Concerns over trade friction and geopolitical risks are driving funds to preemptively allocate to precious metals, supporting prices amid rising forecasts from major global institutions [4] - The market is expected to be influenced more by U.S. economic data affecting Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances, with gold maintaining a strong oscillating trend above the 20-day moving average [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline on January 13, ending a continuous upward trend, but the trading volume reached a new historical high, indicating concentrated trading structures and potential sector rotation [2][11]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.96%. Notably, commercial aerospace stocks faced significant declines, and the computing hardware industry chain, including servers and CPOs, led the downturn. In contrast, sectors such as AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, medical services, and ultra-high voltage concepts showed strength [7][10]. Trading Volume Insights - The A-share market's trading volume approached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. Analysts attribute this surge to several factors, including positive policy expectations, strong liquidity support from long-term funds, and heightened market sentiment [12][13][14]. Policy Expectations - As the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," market participants have a more proactive outlook on policy direction. Analysts expect the central economic work conference to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption, with a continuation of "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policies into 2026, providing strong confidence support for the market [12]. Liquidity Factors - The record trading volume is supported by significant inflows of new capital. Long-term funds, including public funds and newly issued ETFs, have contributed to market liquidity. The margin trading balance has increased to over 2.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust bullish sentiment among investors [13]. Market Sentiment - The previous widespread increase in individual stocks has led to positive feedback among investors, attracting more capital into the market. Analysts suggest that advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance are becoming new growth engines, indicating further upward potential for the Chinese stock market [15].

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing high-level fluctuations with increased trading volume, while Hong Kong stocks show resilience, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - As of the morning close, major A-share indices are weakly fluctuating: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, Shenzhen Component down 0.31%, and ChiNext Index down 0.83% [1] - The STAR 50 Index, representing technology innovation, has the largest decline at 1.77%, indicating a deeper adjustment [1] - Trading activity is robust with a half-day turnover of 2.44 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous day, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance Leading Sectors - The media sector leads with a gain of 3.42%, driven by the practical application of AI, particularly in content generation and marketing transformation [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rises by 2.39%, influenced by heightened global risk aversion and a surge in international gold prices, reflecting concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increases by 2.18%, supported by clear domestic policies favoring technological innovation and attractive valuations after a prolonged adjustment [3] Declining Sectors - The defense and military sector sees a significant drop of 4.13%, attributed to the retreat of speculative trading following risk warnings from multiple commercial space companies [4] - The electronics and communications sectors also decline, confirming a withdrawal of funds from previously high-performing growth sectors, indicating a phase of profit-taking and a shift towards lower-valued stocks [4] Market Dynamics - The current market differentiation reflects a phase of logical restructuring, with funds moving from overheated speculative themes to sectors with industrial trends, macroeconomic drivers, or safe valuation margins [4] - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with rapid index increases likely coming to a halt, but structural opportunities remain active [4] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with confirmed industrial trends, particularly in "AI+" applications, ensuring selection of companies with real business connections and potential for order fulfillment [4] - Resources with hedging attributes, such as gold and silver, are recommended due to their close ties to international macroeconomic sentiments [4] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, especially innovative drug supply chains resonating with Hong Kong stocks, is highlighted as an area of improvement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in nickel prices, characterized by a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, is driven by a combination of policy expectations and fundamental market realities [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices surged due to Indonesia's substantial reduction in nickel ore quotas, decreasing from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a 34% drop, alongside Vale Indonesia's mining operation suspensions [1]. - In a span of three weeks, nickel prices increased by over 36,000 yuan, exceeding 30% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventory rose by 20,000 tons, reaching a peak of 275,600 tons, indicating a supply surplus [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for nickel in the new energy battery sector grew less than expected, at under 8%, while stainless steel procurement remained sluggish due to slow real estate recovery [1]. - High inventory levels are projected to persist, with ING estimating a global nickel surplus of 261,000 tons by 2026, contrasting sharply with the optimistic supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Profitability - Upstream nickel mining and smelting companies benefited from the price surge, with companies like Huayou Cobalt seeing significant profit increases from rising nickel prices [2][3]. - Midstream processing companies face challenges in cost transmission, while downstream stainless steel and battery manufacturers are caught in a dilemma regarding pricing strategies, which could further suppress nickel demand [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The nickel market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with 140,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [3]. - The future price trajectory hinges on the enforcement of Indonesia's production quota policy, with potential supply gaps of 10 to 20 million tons if strictly adhered to [3]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from policy expectations to fundamental realities, monitoring the execution of Indonesia's quota policy and global nickel inventory trends [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in glass and soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by improved policy expectations and a recovery in market sentiment, with main contracts seeing increases of nearly 8% [1][2]. Macro Factors - The recent Central Bank meeting indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support economic stability and boost market sentiment for commodities [3]. - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, along with maintaining ample liquidity, is seen as a foundation for improving macro expectations [3]. Industry Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are leading to structural adjustments in the glass and soda ash industries, with initiatives like differentiated electricity pricing aimed at phasing out outdated capacities [3]. - Specific regional efforts, such as the transition to cleaner energy in glass production, are expected to further support price rebounds [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent improvements in production and sales in key regions are contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance for glass, with expectations of entering a destocking phase [4]. - However, the soda ash industry still faces significant supply pressure, with ongoing capacity expansions projected to add 410 million tons in 2025 and 430 million tons in 2026, while demand remains weak [5]. - The float glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with recent production declines and a slow recovery in the real estate market expected to lead to continued demand decreases [5][6]. Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that both glass and soda ash sectors are at the bottom of their cycles, with limited rebound potential and increased short-term market volatility anticipated [7]. - Policy expectations are expected to dominate price trends, with fundamental factors unlikely to support sustained price increases [8]. - The long-term oversupply situation in soda ash is not expected to change quickly, while glass prices may see upward movement later in the year if supply-side adjustments are realized [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - The nickel market is experiencing a price rebound, but it's mainly due to the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations rather than a substantial improvement in the supply - demand structure. The stainless - steel market is caught in a game between strong cost expectations and weak real - world demand. Nickel is expected to remain strong, while stainless steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 135,000 RMB/ton, closed at 134,100 RMB/ton, a 0.57% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 366,893 (-774,634) lots, and the open interest was 134,729 (1934) lots. The high - level oscillation of the contract reflects intensified market game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - season demand. The current price rebound is a result of the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations [1] - The nickel ore market has a calm trading atmosphere, with limited resources and stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are waiting for the new round of northern mine tenders and have a bullish outlook. Rainfall has affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the January (Phase I) 2026 domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.05 - 0.08 USD/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [2] - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 142,200 RMB/ton, up 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was okay. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or declined. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,424 (758) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,354 (72) tons [2] Strategy - The fundamentals show high inventories and oversupply, but with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and nickel having oscillated at the bottom for a long time, it's likely to attract the attention of profitable funds from precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for single - sided trading, while there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,150 RMB/ton and closed at 13,075 RMB/ton. The trading volume was 85,130 (-60,400) lots, and the open interest was 72,144 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, oscillating downward, centered around the game between "strong cost expectations and weak real demand". Although it continued the pre - holiday optimistic trend at the opening, it was dragged down by the black - metal sector during the session [3] - The market activity increased, and spot quotes rose. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton, and in Foshan market, it was also 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 395 RMB/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 RMB/nickel point to 927.5 RMB/nickel point [3] Strategy - With some macro - level positive factors realized and the inventory declining for four consecutive weeks, but the downstream demand being weak in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain volatile, closely following the Shanghai nickel price trend. The short - term operation strategy is to wait and see. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high in the current volatile situation. The single - sided strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation, with the disk under short - term pressure and mainly in a range - bound pattern. The iron ore market has support in the short - term but lacks the impetus to break through upwards. The coke and coking coal markets face fundamental pressure despite some expectations of stimulus policies. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The steel disk continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased, and inventory continued to fall, but pressure remains. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, and the blast furnace production reduction trend has slowed significantly. Iron water production has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. Downstream real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. Domestic demand is still weak, steel exports remain high, and the December PMI rose to 50.1, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The market sentiment is cautious, demand expectations are still weak, and the disk is under short - term pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment this period decreased month - on - month, slightly stronger than the same period last year, in line with seasonal change rules. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, but they are still relatively high year - on - year. The domestic arrival volume increased this period, and it is expected to remain high in the short - term, with port inventory continuing to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and steel mill profitability has improved recently. Last week, iron water production increased month - on - month. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased continuously but is still at a low level, and there is still some rigid restocking demand in the future. The iron ore disk has short - term support, but the impetus to break through upwards is insufficient. The situation in Venezuela has a very limited impact on the direct supply and demand of iron ore, and future market trends need to be monitored. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing small quantities as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and capital games on the disk have intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks. Spot auction transactions are okay, and the transaction price has increased slightly. Terminal inventory has increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly, and the production - end inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated weakly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, iron water production decreased seasonally. The weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated downward during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations of a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Silicon iron supply has decreased significantly, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]

Group 1 - On January 5, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 23,970.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 150.0 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 23,820.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national zinc price overview on January 5 shows various market prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices ranging from 24,020 CNY/ton to 24,070 CNY/ton, while prices in Guangdong were at 23,720 CNY/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a closing price of 23,820.00 CNY/ton for the main zinc futures contract on January 5, with a daily increase of 2.25% and a trading volume of 141,147 contracts [2] Group 2 - As of January 5, the zinc futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 41,374 tons, a decrease of 1,045 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Domestic zinc smelters are continuing to reduce production, with January zinc ingot output expected to remain stable month-on-month despite a seasonal consumption slowdown [3] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that policy expectations should align with market expectations, avoiding a situation where the market and policy are in conflict [4] Group 3 - The upstream zinc ore import volume is declining due to unfavorable internal and external price comparisons, leading to increased losses in importing zinc concentrate [4] - Domestic smelters are starting winter raw material reserves and are more inclined to purchase domestic zinc concentrate, although competition for domestic ore is intensifying [4] - The downstream market is shifting towards a seasonal slowdown, with the real estate sector dragging down demand, while some support is seen in the automotive sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market: Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, and the output of rebar has slightly increased from a low level. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down. In the short - term, the market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force for prices. However, boosted by the warming market atmosphere and the increasing expectation of supply - tightening policies, the futures market shows a low - level and relatively strong oscillation. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 3080 - 3160 [7]. - Iron ore market: In terms of the industry, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, but they are still high year - on - year, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating strong iron ore supply. On the demand side, as the iron ore output stabilizes after the recovery of steel mill profits, it supports the demand for raw materials, and steel mill inventories increase slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the confidence in winter stockpiling and replenishment has slightly increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to oscillate strongly. The iron ore 2605 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline. By variety, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a slight increase in steel mill inventory and a continuous decrease in social inventory; the factory and social inventories of hot - rolled coils and wire rods both decrease slightly; the factory inventory of cold - rolled products increases while the social inventory decreases; for medium - thick plates, the decrease in factory inventory is less than the increase in social inventory. As the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down [7]. - **Supply**: The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens. In addition, the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, and it is expected that demand will further decline [7]. - **Iron ore Supply**: In the latest period (20251215 - 1221), the global iron ore shipment volume and domestic arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9]. - **Iron ore Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. Recently, steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month, capacity utilization has increased, and molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month [9]. - **Iron ore Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories increase month - on - month [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the RB2605 contract is 3118 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract is 3283 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton; the basis of the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton [21]. - As of December 26, 2025, the RB05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 49 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 13 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai is - 13 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Demand Side - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens, and the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, so demand is expected to further decline [7]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline, but as the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down. By variety, the inventory changes vary [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons [9]. 3.5 Supply Side - The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Supply**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9][148][165]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days [9].