Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 03 contract's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On December 30th, the log 2601 contract was at 756.0, down 4.5 (-0.59%) from the previous day; the log 2603 contract remained flat at 776.0; the log 2605 contract was at 787.5, up 2.5 (0.32%) [2]. - The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on December 30th compared to the previous day. The latest round of FOB quotes for radiata pine 4m medium A was 112 USD/JAS m³, and for spruce 11.8m was 126 EUR/JAS m³, both unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from the previous day, with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 from the previous day, with a 0% change [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million m³, down 12.1 million m³ (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 254 million m³, down 6 million m³ (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.2 million m³, up 2.15%. In Jiangsu, it was 52.1 million m³, down 9.4 million m³ (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 5.89 million m³, down 0.49 million m³ (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million m³, down 0.55 million m³ (-16%). In Jiangsu, it was 2.44 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand softwood log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million m³, an increase of 20.45 million m³ from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in liquefied gas futures prices, with the December closing average at 4188 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton or 2.79% from the previous month [1] - The international crude oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI averaging $57.87/barrel, down $1.61/barrel or -2.70%, and Brent averaging $61.64/barrel, down $2.02/barrel or -3.18% [1] - Domestic liquefied gas supply in December was 2.1686 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.25% month-on-month but an increase of 5.49% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The basis in South China strengthened significantly to 405 yuan/ton, expanding by 239 yuan/ton month-on-month, primarily due to the sharp decline in futures prices [2] - The average daily trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly to 19,245 lots, with the average daily open interest at 57,544 lots, down 20,880 lots month-on-month [2] - The outlook for January predicts weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices, with chemical processing profits remaining in substantial losses, likely exerting negative pressure on demand [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - In the context of low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2601, LG2603, LG2605) all declined compared to December 26th. The LG2601 contract dropped by 0.72% to 760.5 yuan/cubic meter, the LG2603 contract by 0.06% to 776 yuan/cubic meter, and the LG2605 contract by 0.25% to 785 yuan/cubic meter. The 01 - 03 and 01 - 05 spreads also decreased [2]. - The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 730 yuan/cubic meter. The latest round of foreign - market quotes was 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 29th was 7.008 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% increase in length, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port freight volume in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of departing ships was 49, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the previous period [2]. - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 ships carrying New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week) compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3]. Inventory - As of December 26th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. Inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters; inventory in Jiangsu was 52.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.4 million cubic meters (15.30% week - on - week) [2][3]. Demand - As of December 26th, the average daily log out - bound volume was 5.89 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.49 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The average daily out - bound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.55 million cubic meters (16%) to 2.79 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu it decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters (3%) to 2.44 million cubic meters [2][3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand persists, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of futures contracts such as Log 2601, Log 2603, and Log 2605 decreased compared to December 26th, with declines of -0.72%, -0.06%, and -0.25% respectively. The prices of various spot timbers at ports remained unchanged [2]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 5.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3.5. The 03 contract basis increased by 0.5, and the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 [2]. - The foreign - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged from December 26th to January 2nd [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships decreased by 5.0 (-9.26%) [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters (-2.31%) from December 19th. Inventory in different regions showed varying degrees of change [2][3]. Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of December 26th, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4,900 cubic meters (-8%) from December 19th. Outbound volumes in different regions also decreased to varying degrees [2][3]. Forecast of Arriving Ships - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand coniferous log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week). The total arriving volume is expected to be 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41%. With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu increased last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: the price of log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%). The prices of various spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, in November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - In terms of weekly inventory at major ports, as of December 19, the inventory in China was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (-4.41%) from December 12. Inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand - In terms of weekly average daily outbound volume, as of December 19, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (-2%) from December 12. The demand in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu increased slightly [3]

Report Overview - The report is a "All-variety Spread Daily Report" dated December 25, 2025, providing price and basis information for various futures and spot products [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - Not provided in the report. Summary by Commodity Categories Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The basis rate is 52.30%, the spot price is 5628, and the futures price is 5656, with a change of -0.50% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: The basis rate is 26.70%, the spot price is 5840, and the futures price is 5835 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: The basis rate is 69.60%, the spot price is 3320, and the futures price is 3270, with a change of -0.46% [1]. - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: The basis rate is 12.20%, the spot price is 3285 [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: The basis rate is 46.90%, the spot price is 838, and the futures price is 837, with a change of -0.06% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: The basis rate is 63.56%, the spot price is 1745, and the futures price is 1746 [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: The basis rate is 31.60%, the spot price is 1156, and the futures price is 1132, with a change of 2.12% [1]. Non-ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2602)**: The basis rate is -1.47%, the spot price is 94690, and the futures price is 96100 [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The basis rate is -1.34%, the spot price is 22030, and the futures price is 22330, with a change of 1.45% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: The basis rate is 7.16%, the spot price is 2554 [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: The basis rate is -0.17%, the spot price is 23190, and the futures price is 23230 [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: The basis rate is 2.08%, the spot price is 336350, and the futures price is 341800, with a change of -1.59% [1]. - **Nickel (NI5602)**: The basis rate is -0.63%, the spot price is 127200, and the futures price is 128000 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The basis rate is 1.11%, the spot price is 13075, and the futures price is 13220 [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The basis rate is -18.62%, the spot price is 101500, and the futures price is 124720, with a change of -23220 [1]. Precious Metals Series - **Gold (AU2602)**: The basis rate is -0.74%, the spot price is 1007.2, and the futures price is 1014.7, with a change of 0.30% [1]. - **Silver (AG2602)**: The basis rate is 0.60%, the spot price is 17714.0, and the futures price is 17609.0 [1]. Agricultural Products Series - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: The basis rate is 11.07%, the spot price is 3030, and the futures price is 2728.0, with a change of 302.0 [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: The basis rate is 5.74%, the spot price is 8210, and the futures price is 7764.0, with a change of 446.0 [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: The basis rate is 0.02%, the spot price is 8490, and the futures price is 8488.0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: The basis rate is 7.51%, the spot price is 2520, and the futures price is 2344.0, with a change of 176.0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: The basis rate is 6.35%, the spot price is 9550, and the futures price is 8980.0, with a change of 570.0 [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: The basis rate is 3.83%, the spot price is 2280, and the futures price is 2196.0, with a change of 84.0 [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: The basis rate is 5.05%, the spot price is 2620, and the futures price is 2494.0, with a change of 126.0 [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: The basis rate is 2.35%, the spot price is 11750, and the futures price is 11480.0, with a change of 270.0 [1]. - **Eggs (JD2602)**: The basis rate is -1.93%, the spot price is 2947.0, and the futures price is 2890, with a change of -57.0 [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: The basis rate is 6.35%, the spot price is 15081, and the futures price is 14180.0, with a change of 901.0 [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: The basis rate is 3.00%, the spot price is 5420, and the futures price is 5262.0, with a change of 158.0 [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: The basis rate is -2.08%, the spot price is 9000, and the futures price is 9191.0, with a change of -191.0 [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: The basis rate is 15.10%, the spot price is 8400, and the futures price is 8890.0, with a change of -490.0 [1]. Energy and Chemical Series - **Para-xylene (PX603)**: The basis rate is -0.11%, the spot price is 7294.0, and the futures price is 7286.0 [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: The basis rate is -1.65%, the spot price is 5094.0, and the futures price is 5010.0 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: The basis rate is -4.53%, the spot price is 3818.0, and the futures price is 3645.0, with a change of -173.0 [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The basis rate is -0.52%, the spot price is 6484.0, and the futures price is 6450.0 [1]. - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 6655.0, and the futures price is 6598.0 [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: The basis rate is -0.78%, the spot price is 2172.0, and the futures price is 2155.0 [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: The basis rate is -0.29%, the spot price is 1735.0, and the futures price is 1730.0 [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The basis rate is -2.08%, the spot price is 6408.0, and the futures price is 6275.0, with a change of -133.0 [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The basis rate is -0.61%, the spot price is 6278.0, and the futures price is 6240.0 [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: The basis rate is -6.30%, the spot price is 4480.0, and the futures price is 4781.0, with a change of -301.0 [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: The basis rate is 0.00%, the spot price is 2250.0, and the futures price is 2250.0 [1]. - **LPG (PG2602)**: The basis rate is 9.70%, the spot price is 4478.0, and the futures price is 4082.0 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: The basis rate is -2.54%, the spot price is 2920.0, and the futures price is 2996.0 [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: The basis rate is 1.30%, the spot price is 11395.0, and the futures price is 10700.0, with a change of -695.0 [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: The basis rate is 12.93%, the spot price is 928.0, and the futures price is 1048.0, with a change of -120.0 [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: The basis rate is -4.13%, the spot price is 1184.0, and the futures price is 1137.0, with a change of -47.0 [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: The basis rate is -3.64%, the spot price is 15650.0, and the futures price is 15100.0 [1]. Financial Series - **IF2603.CFE**: The basis rate is -0.89%, the spot price is 4595.0, and the futures price is 4634.1 [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: The basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 3025.2, and the futures price is 3027.0 [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: The basis rate is -1.54%, the spot price is 7240.4, and the futures price is 7352.0 [1]. - **IM2603.CFE**: The basis rate is -2.4%, the spot price is 7327.6, and the futures price is 7506.4 [1]. - **2-year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: The basis rate is -0.06%, the spot price is 100.15, and the futures price is 102.53 [1]. - **5-year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: The basis rate is -0.05%, the spot price is 106.03, and the futures price is 108.22 [1]. - **10-year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: The basis rate is 0.03%, the spot price is 100.54, and the futures price is 100.54 [1]. - **30-year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: The basis rate is 0.43%, the spot price is 112.78, and the futures price is 127.51 [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Urea**: On Tuesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The spot market transactions improved, and the sales-to-production ratio in most mainstream regions increased to over 100%. However, the prices in some mainstream regions began to decline slightly. Fundamentally, the urea supply continued to decrease, with the daily output on the previous day at 189,800 tons, a daily decrease of 25,000 tons. The market focus is on the Indian tender and changes in China's export policy. Before new positive factors are realized, the futures price will mainly show a firm and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as the Indian tender results, export expectations, supply levels, spot trading atmosphere, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated widely. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.6%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable. Fundamentally, the industry's maintenance and resumption of production alternated, but the short - term maintenance losses exceeded the resumption of production output, and the supply level continued to decline. The demand follow - up was still poor. There is no new driving force in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, and the futures price was slightly boosted by the overall rebound of the commodity market. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - wide - fluctuation mindset and pay attention to factors such as the overall trend of the commodity market, soda ash start - up and new production capacity production rhythm, and downstream capacity changes [1]. - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the glass futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,028 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.29%. The spot price was still weak. There was no significant change in the glass production line recently, and the daily melting volume of the industry remained at 155,000 tons. The demand follow - up could be maintained, but the sustainability of spot transactions needs to be tracked. The supply - demand and internal - external factors of glass are in a game stage. The external macro - sentiment and the rebound of the commodity market provide bottom support, but the self - driving force is insufficient. The futures price will temporarily continue the bottom - range - fluctuation trend. Attention should be paid to macro and policy changes, the overall trend of the commodity market, glass production line changes, and the spot trading atmosphere [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On December 23, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 10,532, a decrease of 349 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 379 [4]. - On December 23, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 13,800 tons from the same period last year. The start - up rate on this day was 78.49%, a recovery of 0.62 percentage points from 77.87% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 23, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 23, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,523, a decrease of 209 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 978. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 217, a decrease of 1 from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 23, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 930 yuan/ton [6]. - On December 23, the start - up rate of the soda ash industry was 79.62%, down from 80.99% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 23, the average price of the float glass market was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The industry's daily output was 155,100 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest of the main contracts, price spreads between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][10][11][12][13][15][17][18][19][20]. Group 5: Research Team Members - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research. He has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books by the China Futures Association. He has won many awards, including "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [22]. - **Zhang Linglu**: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22]. - **Sun Chengzhen**: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has participated in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22].

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a sudden rebound in the afternoon, primarily driven by a significant recovery in the securities sector, which shifted from a decline of over 0.6% to a gain of over 2% in less than half an hour [1][4]. - The lithium mining sector saw a substantial increase, with futures prices rising over 7%, stabilizing above the critical price level of 100,000 [2]. - The liquor sector continued to decline despite the overall market rebound, indicating a lack of momentum in this segment [3]. Group 2 - The rapid recovery in the securities sector was unexpected and marked a strong reversal in market sentiment [4]. - The commentary suggests a cautious approach to investing, with a focus on waiting for more favorable opportunities rather than making impulsive decisions [2][3]. - The overall market dynamics reflect a mix of volatility and sector-specific performance, highlighting the importance of sector analysis in investment strategies [1][4].