1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].

◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 140（+4）。基本面方面，上周螺纹 钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而当 下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现，同时原 料价格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货 价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价 格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 铁矿石 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/28 周二，铁矿石盘面弱势运行，主要受出口热度下降和煤炭阴跌影响。现 货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 733 元/湿吨（-7）。普氏 62%指数 96.45 美元/ 吨（-1.2），月均 99.50 美元/吨。PBF 基差 76 元/吨（-1）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 港口+2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the overseas quotation continues to decline, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, the current downward trend of the futures market continues, the price is close to the phased bottom, and the previous short positions can be held. It is recommended to participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 27 compared to May 26, with declines of - 2.58%, - 1.27%, and - 0.82% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 also decreased, while the basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased. Most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained stable, except for the 4A large radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by - 2.44%. The overseas quotes of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly from 7.170 to 7.187, and the import theoretical cost increased from 776.13 yuan to 777.89 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In April, the port shipment volume increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From February 16th to February 23rd, the total inventory of Chinese ports decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.59%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 1.11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 1.70% [3] 3.5 Demand: - From February 16th to May 23rd, the daily average log出库 volume in China increased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 3% [3]

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2 26日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 763.5 | 777.5 | -14.0 | -1.80% | | | 原木2509 | 783.5 | 791.5 | -8.0 | -1.01% | | | 原木2511 | 789.5 | 795.5 | -6.0 | -0.75% | | | 7-9价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -18.0 | -8.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -13.5 | -27.5 | 14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -33.5 | -41.5 | 8.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -39.5 | -45.5 | 6.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720. ...

2025 年 5 月 26 日 品 研 究 焦炭：累库延续，震荡偏弱 焦煤：累库延续，震荡偏弱 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 801.5 | -26 | -3.14% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1383 | -23.5 | -1.67% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 491253 | 521877 | 27491 | | | | J2509 | 25439 | 55648 | 940 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦蝶 | | | | | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 970 | 970 | 0 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1651 | 1659 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 焦煤仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, manganese - silicon futures prices rose due to South African manganese ore policies and union negotiation events but fell as Gemco Mine shipped its first batch of manganese ore since early 2024. Silicon - iron prices were volatile and weak due to the downward shift of raw material cost centers [3][42]. - The supply of silicon - iron decreased month - on - month, with significant production cuts in Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Gansu. The supply of manganese - silicon rebounded slightly month - on - month, and production in major producing areas was relatively stable [3][42]. - Silicon - iron inventory increased month - on - month, with obvious inventory accumulation in Inner Mongolia. Manganese - silicon inventory decreased month - on - ten - days, but Ningxia was still in the inventory accumulation state. The warehouse receipt inventory of both silicons declined from the high level [3][42]. - Blast furnace operation and hot metal production decreased month - on - month and may have peaked and declined. The seasonal performance of the demand side was better than last year [3][42]. - The cost center of silicon - iron continued to move down, while the cost center of manganese - silicon increased slightly, supporting the futures price of manganese - silicon. The cost side may loosen again after the arrival of low - cost manganese ore and Australian ore in June [3][42]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both silicons has tightened marginally recently, and a tight balance may occur at the end of the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the price changes of raw materials, the production rhythm of steel mills, the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, and the implementation of ore - end policies and strike events [4][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the silicon - iron 2507 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 5,512 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 732,879 lots and an open interest of 209,455 lots, a week - on - week change of - 18,731 lots. The manganese - silicon 2509 contract price rose and then fell, closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 140 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 5495 lots and an open interest of 435,700 lots, a week - on - week change of 54,626 lots [2][9]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of silicon - iron in major regions fluctuated. The quoted price of 75B silicon - iron in major producing areas was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 100 - 0 yuan/ton. The quoted price range of silicon - manganese in major regions was 5530 - 5880 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese was 5580 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi 6517 silicon - manganese was 5530 yuan/ton [11]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the silicon - iron 2507 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron spot was - 112 yuan/ton, a change of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the manganese - silicon 2509 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was - 18 yuan/ton, a change of 226 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between silicon - iron 2407 - 2508 was 62 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between manganese - silicon 2507 - 2508 was - 16 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - **Spread between the Two Silicons**: As of this week, the spot silicon - iron - manganese - silicon spread in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2507 was - 174 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2509 was - 206 yuan/ton, a change of - 52 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the output of silicon - iron was 88,900 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4600 tons, a change rate of - 4.9%. The weekly operating rate was 30.42%, a change of - 0.80 percentage points from the previous week. The output of manganese - silicon was 165,200 tons, a month - on - month change of 2500 tons, a change rate of 1.5%. The weekly operating rate was 34.18%, a change of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week [2][26]. 2.2 Demand - The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 91.32%, a change of - 0.44 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces was 2436,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 11,700 tons [2][30]. 2.3 Inventory - As of May 23, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises in the country was 75,170 tons, a month - on - half - month change of 1400 tons. The inventory of 63 silicon - manganese sample enterprises in the country was 201,100 tons, a month - on - half - month change of - 6000 tons [3][32]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the futures profit of the two silicons weakened month - on - month, while the spot profit rebounded month - on - month. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the silicon - iron main contract decreased to 17.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 147.5 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the manganese - silicon main contract was - 397.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 131 yuan/ton. The spot profit of silicon - iron was - 94.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 44.5 yuan/ton; the spot profit of manganese - silicon was - 415.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 95 yuan/ton [34][35]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material cost of silicon - iron, decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore in northern ports rose to 34.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The market price of Gabonese ore in Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/dry ton degree. The quoted price of Australian lumps rose to 41.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The price of rich manganese slag fell to 960 yuan/ton, the price of metallurgical coke decreased to 1163.7 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton month - on - month. The prices of manganese - silicon raw materials fluctuated, but the overall cost center increased, while the cost center of silicon - iron weakened relatively [39].