Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly defined in the given star rating description [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend with current appropriate short - selling opportunities [1] - Iron ore: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish drive but with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish bias but with poor operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a slightly bullish bias but poor operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, a certain bullish drive but poor operability [1] Core Views - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations and low market sentiment. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level weak oscillation. The coke and coking coal markets are showing a bullish oscillation, while the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand faces downward pressure in the off - season, with production at a relatively low level and inventory continuing to decline. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production is still high, and the de - stocking trend has slowed. The iron - making water production has dropped from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity is insufficient. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is short - term pressured, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level in the same period, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly to a new high this year, with port inventory showing a cumulative trend. The iron - making water production has continuously declined from a high level, and the steel mills' profitability has shrunk. After the macro - level positive news is implemented, the market shows a tendency to cash in on the positive, and the market is starting to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply. It is expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has hardly changed, with downstream customers making small - scale on - demand purchases and inventory slightly increasing. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coke futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. Although the price dropped rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so the price is unlikely to continue to decline. The coking coal production has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have improved, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production - end inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections in the main coal - producing areas. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel mills have a strong desire to lower the raw material prices. The coking coal futures are at a discount to Mongolian coal, and attention should be paid to the safety production assessment information in the main coking coal production areas [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly declined but remains at a high level, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The forward quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased, and the spot ore has been boosted by the trading floor. The manganese ore inventory has slightly decreased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated strongly during the day. The iron - making water production remains at a high level above 236. The export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium production has slightly increased, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is likely to oscillate in a narrow range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different commodities in the black building materials sector, mostly indicating a "震荡" (sideways) trend, suggesting a neutral stance for the short - term investment in general [2][10][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector are generally stable. Without macro and policy boosts, the sector's prices are oscillating weakly. The glass with supply - side disturbances showed relatively strong price performance this week. The reduction in hot metal in the industry chain is due to seasonal characteristics and production - limiting measures, having limited negative impact on furnace material demand. When macro and policy levels release positive signals, it will support the prices of sector commodities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but the decline in ore prices is limited. With macro and policy uncertainties, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and its price is expected to follow that of finished products as the latter is under short - term pressure [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no significant contradictions. With short - term pressure on finished product prices, scrap steel prices are expected to follow finished products [2][9]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is high, so the expectation of a fourth - round increase is low. Given strong cost support, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is hard to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventories have reached multi - year lows. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][12]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term cost stability and high steel production support its price, but the market has a pessimistic supply - demand outlook, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient [2]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: High steel production and rising costs support its price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upside [2][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disturbed in the short - term, facing a downward risk. With medium and downstream inventories at a moderately high level, if production and sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline [3][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation is intensifying. Cost supports the price bottom, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][13]. Steel - The fundamentals have limited support, and the futures market is running weakly. Spot market transactions are generally weak, and speculative sentiment is poor. Although steel mill profits have improved marginally, hot metal production has decreased from a high level due to environmental protection and seasonal maintenance. The output of five major steel products has increased, and demand has continued to recover. Steel inventories have continued to decline, but the year - on - year high inventory level remains unchanged. With the approaching end of the peak season, the demand outlook is still cautious, and the futures market is expected to face pressure after the cooling of macro sentiment [8]. Others - **Base Difference Seasonal Charts**: Include steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon ferrosilicon, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash base differences [20][23][25]. - **Profit Seasonal Charts**: The report mentions profit seasonal charts but does not provide specific content [62]. - **Steel Daily Transactions**: The report mentions steel daily transactions but does not provide detailed content [82]. - **Commodity Index**: On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. The steel industry chain index on November 4, 2025, was 1997.33, with a daily decline of 1.24%, a 5 - day decline of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.26% [98][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, similar to the above balanced state [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, also in a balanced state [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, with low operability and a balanced trend [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, the same as the others [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term, with overall low - level range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to demand changes and the progress of domestic demand stimulus policies as the off - season approaches [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level, with the market starting to trade the reality of marginal relaxation of fundamentals [3] - The coke market has a third - round price increase expectation, but the steel's pressure on raw material prices is strong. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [4] - The coking coal market's price is not expected to decline continuously. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety supervision in major production areas [6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread steel's apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand remained good, production rose slightly, and inventory also decreased [2] - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated [2] - The real estate investment declined significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand was weak, and the market sentiment was low [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened. Global shipments decreased, but were still at a high level. Domestic arrivals reached a new high this year, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - Last week, iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate hit a new low this year. There is further production - cut pressure after entering the off - season [3] Coke - The coke price decreased during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase, but the coking profit is average, and downstream demand is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price decreased. Some coal mines in Wuhai resumed production, but the price is not expected to decline continuously. The total inventory increased slightly [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. The manganese ore price increased slightly [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the supply was at a high level with inventory decreasing [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - **Supply**: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - **Profit**: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - **Valuation**: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - **Inventory**: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - **Profit**: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - **Summary**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - **Demand**: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - **Profit**: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - **Summary**: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Shi Lei [2] - Research Assistant: Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Mid - to - Long - Term**: For steel and iron ore, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, macro - level positive impacts are weakening, and the market is returning to fundamental influences. With increasing environmental restrictions and approaching winter storage, there is an expectation of a mild rebound in steel and iron ore futures, but trading should be based on an oscillatory mindset. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, with stable supply and weak downstream demand, maintaining a weak pattern. Soda ash has a slight reduction in inventory, weak downstream demand, and a supply - surplus situation, with the main contract continuing a weak oscillatory trend [62][66] - **Short - Term**: For black series products, influenced by the "14th Five - Year Plan" on new infrastructure and stable real estate policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the overall market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week, but cooled on Friday. Steel, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are expected to oscillate, with risks of repeated fluctuations. Glass and soda ash followed the sector up and then down, with prices under pressure, and short - term trading should be based on fundamental logic [63][67] Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price (10/24/2025) | Futures Closing Price (10/31/2025) | Change | Percentage Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2601) | 3046.0 | 3106.0 | 60.0 | 2.0% | 3230.0 | 124.0 | | Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601) | 3250.0 | 3308.0 | 58.0 | 1.8% | 3330.0 | 22.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 771.0 | 800.0 | 29.0 | 3.8% | 814.0 | 14.0 | | Coke (J2601) | 1757.5 | 1777.0 | 19.5 | 1.1% | 1670.0 | - 107.0 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 1248.5 | 1286.0 | 37.5 | 3.0% | 1450.0 | 164.0 | | Glass (FG601) | 1092.0 | 1083.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.8% | 1210.0 | 127.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 1229.0 | 1225.0 | - 4.0 | - 0.3% | 1270.6 | 45.6 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On October 30, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 58 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply Side**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons; the rebar output was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons [12] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.3218 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,700 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 90,196 tons [16] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 66,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.7171 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons [21] Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 24, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,900 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.0843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 592,000 tons [26] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15.27293 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,440 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.84986 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229,330 tons [31] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the average daily discharge volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 331,220 tons, a week - on - week increase of 91,500 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 74,000 tons [36] Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, unchanged from the previous week; as of October 30, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%, unchanged [41] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 823,000 weight boxes compared to October 24; the available days of in - plant inventory were 28 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 days [46] Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.89%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points from the previous week; the output was 757,600 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week [50] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [55] - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of October 31, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 100.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points [59]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3180 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (+20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Market trends: The black metal sector continued to strengthen. Steel spot trading was average overall, with better trading at lower prices. Last week's data showed a decline in hot metal production but still at a high level, with an increase in hot-rolled coil and rebar production. Steel demand has recovered recently, and inventory has shifted from factory warehouses to social warehouses. Rebar destocking has accelerated, and hot-rolled coils have started to destock. Steel apparent demand has increased [5] - Influencing factors: The recovery of steel demand is due to the drop in temperature, the rise in thermal coal prices, frequent coal mine accidents, and the speculation of environmental governance in Wuhai coal mines, which has led to the recent strength of coking coal. Currently, steel valuations are low, and steel mill profits are shrinking, providing some support at the bottom. However, plate inventory is high in the fourth quarter, with slower capital release, slow downstream payment collection, and a year-on-year decline in the number of projects, so steel prices still face pressure [5] - Policy impact: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" has a long-term positive impact on steel but a limited short-term impact. After the news was released, the market showed some follow-up increases [5] - Short-term outlook: Steel prices will remain range-bound in the short term. They will continue to fluctuate with coking coal, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is pressure at the top [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1-5 positive spread and the long position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - Environmental restrictions in Tangshan: Due to environmental protection requirements, Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production limit on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from the 27th. As of October 24, the daily average hot metal production in Tangshan was 396,900 tons. If the blast furnace production is limited by 30%, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by 91,000 tons, and a total of 409,500 tons of hot metal production will be affected in 4.5 days. The impact on construction steel mills is limited, with TSDH expected to have a daily average impact of 8,000 tons on hot metal. The overall production of the rebar production line remains basically unchanged, still at a level of 8,000 - 10,000 tons per day [6][7] - APEC meeting: President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 30 to November 1 and pay a state visit to South Korea. Regarding the issue of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the two sides are in close communication, and China will release further information in a timely manner [7]

Group 1 - In July, domestic macroeconomic factors and cost support led to a significant increase in the black metal sector, while in August, steel prices fell but iron ore and coking coal prices showed resilience [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for July, August, and September was 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, indicating a weakening trend below the 50% mark [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, with strong market expectations regarding fiscal deficit rates and real estate policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The crude steel supply will enter a phase of environmental production limits and production willingness competition, with a cumulative crude steel output of 67.18 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Northern regions will face regular and differentiated environmental production limits as winter approaches, which will be a major factor in suppressing steel supply in the fourth quarter [2] - Demand for construction steel is expected to decline significantly due to reduced outdoor construction activities in northern regions, while southern regions will also see weakened overall demand [2] Group 3 - Due to high tariffs set by the U.S., China's direct steel exports to the U.S. have become minimal, shifting focus to markets like Vietnam and South Korea, thus limiting the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs on steel prices [3] - The core market contradiction is expected to shift from "weak reality" to a competition between winter environmental production limits and year-end demand surges, leading to a wide fluctuation in domestic steel prices [3]

Group 1 - In July, the black metal sector saw significant increases due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and cost support, while in August, steel prices declined but iron ore and coking coal prices remained resilient [1] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for July, August, and September was 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, indicating a weakening trend below the 50% mark [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, with strong market expectations regarding fiscal deficit rates and real estate policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The crude steel supply will enter a phase of environmental production limits and production willingness competition, with a cumulative crude steel output of 67.18 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Demand for construction steel is expected to significantly decline as outdoor construction slows down in northern regions due to falling temperatures, while southern regions will also see reduced demand intensity [2] - The introduction of a new law in South Korea aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the steel industry and promoting green technology could significantly impact China's exports of medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils [2] Group 3 - Due to high tariff barriers set by the U.S., China's direct steel exports to the U.S. have become minimal, shifting focus to markets like Vietnam and South Korea, thus limiting the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs on steel prices [3] - The core market contradiction is expected to shift from "weak reality" to a competition between winter environmental production limits and year-end demand surges, leading to a wide fluctuation in domestic steel prices [3]

Summary of Qibin Group Conference Call Industry Overview - The float glass industry is currently facing a weak peak season, with most companies operating at breakeven or experiencing cash flow losses, particularly in high-cost regions and gas-dependent enterprises [2][4][8] - Policy interventions and environmental inspections may accelerate the market clearing on the supply side, potentially leading to price recovery within 1-3 months [2][4] Company Insights - Qibin Group's core competitiveness lies in its extreme cost advantages in float glass and photovoltaic glass, achieved through self-sufficient silica sand resources and lean management practices [2][5] - The company is replicating its float glass model in the photovoltaic glass sector, with new capacities of 1,200 tons large-scale pool kilns, supported by upstream mineral and pipeline gas resources [2][5][11] - Qibin Group's float glass business has undergone rapid expansion (2011-2015), internal optimization (2016-2018), and a strategic restart of expansion (2019-present), currently holding the highest gross margin in the industry [2][6] Financial Performance - Float glass price fluctuations are primarily due to supply-demand mismatches, with rigid supply and linear demand changes [7] - As of early 2024, profits have hovered around breakeven, with high pipeline gas costs weakening profitability [7][8] - The company’s gross margin per box is approximately 13.4 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of around 0.7 yuan [8] Market Dynamics - The fourth quarter is expected to see increased expectations for anti-involution policies and environmental production limits, which may disrupt supply [8] - The introduction of stricter energy consumption standards and green building methods is expected to lead to the exit of inefficient capacities, forming a dynamic balance in the market [3][8] Future Outlook - Qibin Group is experiencing a recovery point in profitability within the photovoltaic glass sector after a period of industry losses [10] - The company plans to enhance the scale effect of its photovoltaic glass business, optimize operational efficiency, and explore new markets in pharmaceutical glass and electronic glass [12] - The company’s long-term competitive edge is its extreme cost control capability, ensuring its leading position in the existing market and providing stable growth in new markets [12] Key Takeaways - Qibin Group is well-positioned to benefit from policy-driven price recovery and has a robust strategy to replicate its success in float glass to photovoltaic glass [4][10] - The company’s strategic focus on resource layout, energy cost control, and advanced production technology positions it favorably against competitors [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Core Views - China takes a solid step in extraterritorial jurisdiction, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing export controls on relevant rare earth items and technologies, and adding 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. It also implements export controls on items like superhard materials, some rare earth equipment and raw materials, some medium and heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjust the technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027. The pure - electric driving range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is adjusted from 43 kilometers to no less than 100 kilometers [2]. - The consumer market shows good growth during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year. Domestic tourism spending reaches 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increases by 4.5% year - on - year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [2]. - With the continuous advancement of environmental protection production restrictions, most steel mills' sintering machine production restriction ratio increases from 30% to 40% - 50%. Some steel mills' existing iron ore inventories may not last until the end of the production restriction on the 20th. If transportation restrictions continue, raw material supply shortages may lead to blast furnace shutdowns or reduced production loads, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission formulates the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026. The total cotton import tariff quota in 2026 is 894,000 tons, with 33% being state - trading quotas. The total grain import tariff quotas are 963,600 tons for wheat (90% state - trading quotas) and 720,000 tons for corn (60% state - trading quotas) [3]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, live pigs, Shanghai copper, and crude oil [4]. - Night - session performance: The report presents the night - session price changes and position - increasing ratios of commodity futures main contracts [4]. - Capital proportion of each commodity plate: Non - metallic building materials account for 2.61%, precious metals 31.86%, oilseeds 10.16%, soft commodities 2.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.98%, coal - coking - steel - ore 12.52%, energy 2.93%, chemicals 11.80%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.48% [5]. - Plate positions: The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6]. 3.2 Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.32 | 1.32 | 17.37 | | | SSE 50 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 12.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 19.68 | | | CSI 500 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 31.84 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.28 | 0.70 | | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.29 | - 0.38 | 33.36 | | | German DAX | 0.06 | 3.06 | 23.62 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.77 | 8.12 | 21.77 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.41 | 1.70 | 16.35 | | | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.15 | 0.19 | - 0.81 | | Fixed - Income | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.07 | 0.09 | - 0.76 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.02 | - 0.56 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI Crude Oil | - 0.92, - 1.68 | - 0.42, - 1.58 | 0.88, - 14.49 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.60 | 3.06 | 51.51 | | | LME Copper | 1.01 | 4.67 | 22.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.92 | 2.92 | 33.88 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.56 | 1.62 | - 8.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.12 | - 6.05 | [8]