本期发车，懒猫全球配置组合重点买入A股、美股和黄金。 最近，全球市场陷入集体下跌，美股遭遇了"黑色星期二"，日韩股市今天也重挫。 风险资产大跌有几个方面的原因。 首先是情绪上，高盛和大摩CEO这两位大佬几乎是在同一时间发出预警，称美股估值太高，未来12至24个月内可能出现10%-20%的回调。 另外，知名的大空头、对冲基金经理Michael Burry在三季度已经开始做空英伟达和人工智能热门股票Palantir。 还有，华尔街知名多头Yardeni也怀疑美股逼近回调边缘，警告年底涨势存在不确定性。 其次是流动性上。 本轮美国政府关门时间超过35天，已经正式成为历史上持续时间最长的政府停摆期。因为政府停摆财政开支减少，而美债发行继续，这导致美国财政部一 般账户（TGA）余额急剧膨胀。 我们都知道，流动性对金融市场至关重要，美元流动性可以理解为全球金融体系的"水位"。 当美联储释放流动性时，资产价格上涨、风险偏好提升；当流动性收紧时，融资成本上升、资产重估压力加大。 如何观察美元流动性呢？ 可以套用一个公式：金融市场净流动性=美联储资产负债表规模-TGA-逆回购（RRP），该指标也大致等同于银行的准备金规模。 过 ...

今天的全球股市，可谓4月7号的重演。 不仅是股市，就连黄金、石油和比特币，都出现了大规模的暴跌！ COMEX黄金期货跌1.81%报3941.30美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.40%报46.90美元/盎司。 WTI原油期货12月合约跌0.8%，报60.56美元/桶；布伦特原油期货1月合约跌0.69%，报64.44美元/桶。 加密货币以太坊价格跌破3100美元，跌幅高达14%； 比特币昨晚的价格也下跌超过7%。 为什么突然之间，全球股市以及各类大宗资产都出现了大跌的情况？ 一个重要原因是： 之前一路上涨的AI相关科技，这两天开始回调了。 昨晚美股英特尔跌幅超过6%； 特斯拉跌幅超过5%，市值一夜蒸发802亿美元； 老美科技股龙头英伟达，跌幅 超 过3%，市值一夜蒸发了1990亿美元。 那为何科技股这两天开始下跌了呢？ 几乎所有国家的股市，都吃到了一记重锤。 | 全球指数 | | 更多 > | | --- | --- | --- | | 亚太市场 | 欧非中东 | 美洲市场 | | 恒生指数 | 英国高的 | 道琼斯 | | 25684.86 | 9714.960 | 47085.240 | | -267.5 ...

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a significant downturn, with the U.S. market liquidity tightening, as indicated by the surge in the SOFR rate, which rose by 22 basis points to 4.22%, marking the largest increase in a year [2][4] - The spread between SOFR and the federal funds rate increased by 32 basis points, the highest level since March 2020, indicating severe liquidity issues [4] - The U.S. Treasury's cash balance exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in five years, leading to a drop in the Federal Reserve's reserves to $2.85 trillion, the lowest since early 2021 [7][8] Group 2 - The failure of the Senate's funding proposal coincided with the market's accelerated decline, as optimism about a resolution diminished [11] - The A-share market showed resilience, traditionally rebounding after global downturns, with expectations of a low open followed by a recovery [2][15] - The photovoltaic sector led the rebound, supported by underlying trends and a bottoming out, while consumer sectors remained weak [15] Group 3 - The U.S. economy's reliance on the AI industry is a growing concern, with overall economic growth being minimal outside of AI-related spending [16] - Oracle's rising credit default swaps and increasing debt levels highlight the fragility of the current economic situation, with total debt exceeding $100 billion [17] - The potential for an economic downturn similar to the 2000 internet bubble burst is a risk if the AI sector falters, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding economic dependencies [17]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a significant downturn, with not only stock markets but also commodities like gold and sugar oranges plummeting [2] - Despite the global decline, the A-share market showed resilience, often rising after global downturns, with a success probability of around 90% based on historical trends [2] Causes of Market Turbulence - The recent instability in global markets is attributed to tightening liquidity in the U.S. market, as evidenced by the surge in the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) by 22 basis points to 4.22%, marking the largest increase in a year [4] - The spread between SOFR and the federal funds rate reached its highest level since March 2020, indicating severe liquidity issues [6] - The rise in rates is compounded by a significant increase in the three-month general collateral rate spread, which rose by 25 basis points, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic [8] - The tightening liquidity is primarily due to the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to a lack of spending by the Treasury, resulting in a cash balance exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in five years [11] - The Federal Reserve's reserves have dropped to $2.85 trillion, the lowest since early 2021, due to the Treasury absorbing excess cash [13] Market Reactions - The market's accelerated decline coincided with the failure of the Senate's funding proposal, which shifted market sentiment from cautious optimism to panic [16] - The downturn affected various assets, including U.S. stocks, gold, and other commodities [17] Investment Insights - The A-share market is expected to rebound, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic energy, which is seen as a strong performer due to its positioning at the bottom of the market cycle and potential for growth [20] - The consumer sector is currently underperforming, with investors facing challenges in realizing gains [20] - The reliance of the U.S. economy on the AI sector raises concerns about sustainability, as economic growth outside of AI-related spending has been minimal [22] - Oracle's rising credit default swaps and increasing debt levels signal potential vulnerabilities in the AI sector, which could lead to broader economic repercussions if the AI bubble bursts [23] Future Considerations - The market's response to the U.S. government shutdown and the potential for resolution could create opportunities for investors [19] - Continuous monitoring of macroeconomic factors, policy changes, and industry developments is essential for identifying investment opportunities and risks [24]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：SoSoValue 社区研究员 ET（Agarwood Capital） 原文链接：https://sosovalue.com/zh/sosocholar/post/1985893440846393346 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行 修改。转载仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 一、前言 当投资者仍在为比特币的下跌寻找情绪与技术面的解释时，真正的答案已悄然写进美国金融系统的账本：美元流动性正遭遇一次结构 性紧缩。具体表现为 ⦁ 财政部 TGA 账户余额接近 1 万亿美元，大量吸走市场流动性； ⦁ 短端资金市场压力陡升，SOFR–FDTR 利差一度扩大至 +30bp； ⦁ 美联储被迫重启临时回购操作（Overnight Repo），向市场注入近 300 亿美元流动性——这是自2019年回购危机以来首次。 这场流动性"真空"并非偶然，核心是政府关门导致。财政部在预算僵局与潜在政府关门风险下提前"吸金备粮"，大量发债将现金锁入 TGA 账户，直接抽走银行体系准备金， ...

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.79% and the S&P 500 down by 1.17% [1][3] - The A-share market is in a correction phase since October 2, with a potential drop of 15%-20% expected [3] - Defensive sectors are seeing capital inflows, while materials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading declines in Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.26%, while the Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 1.44% [2] - High-dividend sectors such as telecommunications and utilities are performing well amidst market volatility [3] Company Insights - Luxshare Precision (002475 CH) has its target price raised to 75.55 RMB, reflecting strong synergy from the Apple upgrade cycle and ODM integration [5] - The expected compound annual growth rate for Luxshare's earnings from FY25-27 is projected at 27%, driven by growth in consumer electronics, automotive, and communication sectors [5] Economic Indicators - The UK government is focusing on reducing inflation and managing national debt, hinting at potential tax increases in the upcoming budget [3] - The U.S. job vacancies have dropped to the lowest level since April 2021, indicating a tightening labor market [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Soybean meal, Paper pulp - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, PG, Container shipping European line Core Views - Short - term, market sentiment may shift from optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillating phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. - Copper price is expected to have limited downside, while aluminum price oscillates, and alumina has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - Zinc price is expected to stay high, but chasing high should be cautious; nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and have different trends [1]. - Tin has long - term buying opportunities at low prices; polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and other commodities have their own oscillating or directional trends based on supply - demand and macro factors [1]. - Some agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. face bearish factors, while others like sugar and cotton have complex supply - demand situations [1]. - Energy - chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and cost, showing various trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Short - term, with the release of positive factors, the stock index may oscillate to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, and there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. Treasury Bond - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. Gold - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. Copper - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and copper price may decline, but the downside is limited [1]. Aluminum - Recent industrial drivers are limited, and with the digestion of macro - positives, aluminum price oscillates [1]. Alumina - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. Zinc - Market risk aversion rises, LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and zinc price is strong, but domestic over - supply requires caution when chasing high [1]. Nickel - Short - term, nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate weakly, with high inventory pressure; long - term, primary nickel over - supply persists [1]. Stainless Steel - Macro sentiment weakens, and stainless - steel futures are under pressure; short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedges at high prices should be noted [1]. Tin - Long - term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices due to the unrepaired raw - material end and good new - quality demand expectations [1]. Polysilicon - Northwest production capacity is recovering, production in November is decreasing, and there are expectations of capacity reduction and increased terminal installation [1]. Lithium Carbonate - There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Near - month production is restricted, and far - month has upward potential [1]. Manganese Silicon - Direct demand is good, but high supply and inventory pressure limit price rebound [1]. Soda Ash - It follows glass, but supply - demand is average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is testing support, and coke has a complex situation; short - term, single - side operations should be observed, and long - term, low - buying is recommended [1]. Palm Oil - Short - term, it faces seasonal production increase and weak exports; from November, there may be a phased rebound if exports improve [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations and Canadian harvest put pressure on the price [1]. Cotton - Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit; the downside is limited, but new - crop base and price may be under pressure [1]. Sugar - Short - term, there is seasonal upward momentum, but new - sugar listing may limit the rebound space [1]. Corn - Futures and spot face selling pressure, and the price may oscillate and bottom out [1]. Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean purchase and processing profit is poor, and the price may rebound to repair the profit, but supply expectations limit the rebound height [1]. Paper Pulp - The 11 - contract has pressure, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. Log - The fundamental situation has declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Live Pig - Short - term, futures follow the spot and turn weak [1]. Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production slightly, geopolitical hype cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. Asphalt - Short - term supply - demand is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" demand may be false; supply is sufficient, and profit is high [1]. Natural Rubber - Supported by raw - material cost, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the market atmosphere is positive [1]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost support weakens, supply is loose, and the price is adjusted downwards [1]. PTA and Short - fiber - The "anti - involution" policy drives the price up, and short - fiber follows the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - It follows the decline of crude oil, but cost support strengthens, and polyester demand is stable [1]. Styrene - Asian benzene price is weak, and styrene profit declines, with more device overhauls [1]. Urea - Export is weak, and there is cost support [1]. PE and PP - Supply pressure is high, and downstream improvement is less than expected [1]. PVC - Supply pressure is large, and cost support strengthens [1]. Caustic Soda - Production plans increase, over - concentration of overhauls decreases, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. PG - International oil and gas supply is loose, and domestic spot is stable [1]. Container Shipping European Line - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and November's shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

商品日报 20251105 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 主要品种观点 宏观：美国政府持续停摆，国内股市缩量走弱 海外方面，美国政府停摆追平历史纪录，叠加逆回购利率飙升引发流动性担忧，市场风 险偏好显著降温。纳指跌逾 2%，黄金、铜价均跌超 1%，油价收低，美元指数重返 100 上 方，10Y 美债收益率下行。10 月末 SOFR 利率（隔夜回购市场资金成本）大幅上行，背后 既有美联储仍在缩表与政府停摆造成准备金收缩的结构性影响，也受月末资金紧张等短期季 节性因素推动。风险资产回调主要源于前期高位累积与持续创新高后的获利了结，回购市场 的流动性缓解关注美国政府何时开门，今日关注 10 月 ADP 就业及非制造业 PMI。 国内方面，A 股周二震荡走弱，两市超 3600 只个股收跌、成交额缩至 1.94 万亿，风格 上红利、微盘延续占优，双创板块调整，11 月市场缺乏新的宏观、事件催化，基本面依旧温 和震荡，海外风偏高位回落，短期预计震荡偏弱；中长期而言，流动性宽松与基本面筑底的 共振阶段已进入后半程，逢低布局仍具性价比。债 ...

今天分享的是：：2025美元流动性专题之二：美元流动性的三维度观测报告 联邦基金市场是美元流动性的基石，在充裕准备金框架下，"量"成为核心观测指标。准备金总量直接反映银行体系基础流动性 充裕程度，其变动受美联储公开市场操作和负债结构变化影响。2022年6月开启的新一轮缩表以来，美联储总资产规模趋降，但 逆回购工具发挥了"缓冲垫"作用，准备金未大幅抽离。2025年9月，准备金总量达3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产比重12.9%，处于 合理区间，联邦基金利率也维持在政策区间内。贴现窗口作为常备流动性工具，因"污名化效应"日常使用较少，仅在市场危机 时大规模动用。 回购市场是美元流动性的重要枢纽，担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）是关键价格基准。SOFR通常在隔夜逆回购利率与准备金余额 利率间波动，其与隔夜逆回购利率的利差变化可反映流动性松紧。2025年9月以来，该利差中枢升至16BP，显示回购市场流动性 收紧。一级交易商作为核心做市主体，其国债逆回购规模与准备金余额的比值可反映市场资金供给状况，2025年9月该比值为 0.88，虽呈上行趋势，但距离危机时期水平仍有差距。2021年设立的常备回购便利工具，为市场提供了"利率天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].