股债跷跷板
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【银行理财】资管协会更名筑牢协同根基,理财打新聚焦硬科技赛道——银行理财周度跟踪(2025.11.24-2025.11.30)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-12-03 10:03
Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the recent changes in the asset management industry in China, particularly the renaming of the "China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association," which signifies a shift towards a more integrated self-regulatory framework in the asset management sector [5][6][7]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The official renaming of the "China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association" has been completed, marking a significant step in the association's integration process [5]. - The association's membership has expanded to include various financial institutions, indicating a move towards a cross-industry self-regulatory platform [6]. - The evolution of the association reflects a shift from "institutional regulation" to "functional regulation" in China's asset management industry, particularly following the implementation of the asset management new regulations in 2018 [6][7]. Innovations in the Industry - On November 24, the domestic GPU company, Moer Thread, launched its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, raising 8 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO on the board in 2025 [8]. - Ningyin Wealth Management and Xingyin Wealth Management participated in the IPO, with Ningyin's six products receiving approximately 3.93 million yuan in allocations, the highest among wealth management companies [8]. - Zhongyou Wealth Management has introduced a multi-asset and multi-strategy product series aimed at addressing investment challenges in the current low-interest-rate environment [10]. Performance of Financial Products - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, a 1 basis point increase week-on-week, while money market funds saw a decline to 1.16% [11]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with yields generally rising due to mixed market factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing economic pressures [12]. - The current environment for the bond market remains generally favorable, but significant constraints exist, including low sensitivity to fundamental factors and ongoing uncertainties related to public fund sales regulations [12][5]. Tracking of Net Asset Value - The net asset value of bank wealth management products rose to 2.32%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads widened by 5.11 basis points [20]. - The relationship between net asset value and credit spreads indicates potential redemption pressures when net asset values exceed 5% and credit spreads widen significantly [20].
12月固定收益月报:12月债市能迎来“顺风局”吗?-20251130
Western Securities· 2025-11-30 12:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]
债券市场周报:对跨年行情的再思考-20251129
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-29 13:30
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the bond market industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of the first - principle of the bond market, the current short - term and medium - term adjustment trends may resonate, so caution is prioritized at the end of the year. This year's seasonal pattern has clearly failed, and the pre - conditions for the cross - year market are different from previous years, so one should not stick to old methods [1][38]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation - **11 - month bond "decline": Reduced sensitivity to positive factors**: Since November, the bond market has shown a "decline", with continuous weakening market sentiment, a persistently bearish market theme, and continuous redemption of liability funds. The news influencing bond pricing has been mostly repetitive, leading institutions to adopt a conservative approach. The relationship between the stock and bond markets has become more complex, with an asymmetric feedback in the stock - bond seesaw effect, indicating the fragility of bond market sentiment [2][13][14]. - **Technical analysis: Potential C - wave adjustment of treasury bond futures at the end of the year**: Since July, TL has shifted from a five - wave upward trend to a three - wave adjustment pattern through an M - top formation, currently in a typical C - wave adjustment. If the decline in the C - wave is assumed to be the same as that in the A - wave, the low point of the C - wave may be around 109 yuan for the TL main contract. The adjustment may last until around the Spring Festival next year [3][19][20]. - **Low bond market volatility: Lack of emotional resonance for the cross - year market**: Despite the increased bond market volatility in the past week, the adjustment amplitude is still small compared to 2023 and 2024. Due to factors such as the stable long - term outlook based on fundamentals, consistent expectations of long - term loose monetary policy, and compressed term spreads, the low - volatility characteristic of interest rates is likely to continue and intensify. The convergence of pure - bond strategies has also led to less differentiation in the returns of pure - bond funds [4][22][26]. - **Institutional behavior: The main theme at the end of the year, with attention to the superposition of three pressures**: In December, institutional behavior may be the main logic driving the bond market. Key factors include the year - end assessment pressure on banks' financial markets, the redemption pressure on the liability side of funds, and the critical node of the rectification of the smoothing mechanism of wealth management trusts. These factors may lead to increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][30][35]. - **Bond strategy: Abandon inertial thinking and approach the cross - year market with caution**: Given the potential resonance of short - term and medium - term adjustment trends, caution is needed at the end of the year. The cross - year market lacks effective driving forces this year, and the end of the "low - volatility + decline" characteristic of the bond market depends on the implementation of fund regulations and loose monetary policy [38]. 3.2 Bond Market Asset Performance The content mainly presents various charts related to bond market asset performance, such as the yield curve of treasury bonds, the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit, and the spread between government - owned development bonds and treasury bonds, but no specific text summary is provided in the given content. 3.3 High - Frequency Entity Tracking - **Price - related**: The content includes charts of the Southern China Agricultural Products Index, international crude oil prices, average wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits, and average wholesale prices of meat, which are used to track price trends [51][52][54]. - **Industry - related**: Charts of the Southern China Industrial Products Index, closing prices of glass and coking coal, blast furnace operating rates, and petroleum asphalt operating rates are presented to monitor industrial conditions [56][62][69]. - **Investment and real estate - related**: Information on the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the second - hand housing listing price index, and the cumulative value of housing completion area is provided to track the real estate market [66][67][71]. - **Travel and consumption - related**: Charts of subway passenger volume, movie box office revenue, passenger car retail volume, and the number of domestic flights are used to monitor travel and consumption trends [76][81][83].
国债期货日报:股债跷跷板明显,国债期货全线收跌-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. There are also differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan increase (0.15%) month - on - month. M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, down 0.20% (- 2.38%) month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (- 1.61%) month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.39 (- 0.39%) day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0944, down 0.012 (- 0.16%) day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (- 0.97%) day - on - day. DR007 was 1.45, down 0.02 (- 1.10%) day - on - day. R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (- 1.24%) day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day [10]. 2. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Macro Policy**: On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market Treasury bond trading operations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached three consensuses. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, while retaining the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Market Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.22 yuan, and 115.16 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.08%, and - 0.33% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.056 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (January - October 2025)**: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure expenditures [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, with strong government bond issuance and weak corporate and household financing demand. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.433%, 1.540%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation - **Inter - period Spreads of Treasury Bond Futures**: The report mentions various inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [29][33] - **Implied Yields and Basis Spreads**: It provides information on the implied yields and basis spreads of different - term Treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [36][48][55][62]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the funding rate [36][37]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: It presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TF main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [48]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the T main contract's IRR and the funding rate [55]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are presented [57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TL main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [62][65]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [68]. Strategies - **Single - sided Strategy**: With the decline in repurchase rates, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in basis spreads [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].
宁证期货今日早评-20251126
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:56
Key Points of Investment Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, global economy and demand are weak, and new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ease geopolitical risks, leading to a weakening trend in international oil prices [1]. - The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is favorable for risk appetite and negative for gold, but increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10]. 3. Summaries by Product Crude Oil - As of November 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.86 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 539,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 753,000 barrels [1]. - New peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention, and international oil prices are running weakly [1]. Gold - Trump's team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the conflict may end soon, which is negative for gold [2]. - Increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. Carbonate Lithium - The SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 92,462 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from the previous working day [4]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.19%, down 0.62 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 73,050 tons, down 10.21% or 8,310 tons from the previous period [5]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. Live Pigs - On November 25, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous day [6]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. Soybean Meal - As of November 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices remained stable [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared with the same period last month [7]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. PTA - This week, the domestic PTA output is 141.98 million tons, down 3.09 million tons from last week and up 2.88 million tons from the same period last year [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 57 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue is not available; the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16,100 yuan/ton [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - An upcoming policy briefing may affect the bond market. The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Silver - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10].
【中金固收·信用】债市延续小幅震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 15:12
中金研究 展望未来,短期我们认为此种态势或维持,不过需要关注股市走势,如果持续下跌则可能带来部分固收+产品的赎回,从而引发持仓债券抛售,对收益率 也会产生上行压力。但是正如我们前期判断,信用债在进入开放期的摊余成本法债基新增需求的支撑下,或相对更抗跌,信用利差仍会在低位震荡,信用 债收益率或仍将跟随利率波动。更长期限来看,2026年上半年仍有较大规模的摊余成本债基进入开放期,其中5年及以上的占比会上升,我们认为对5-7年 左右的信用债需求支撑或增加。 债市延续小幅震荡 上周现券市场窄幅震荡。周一买断式逆回购超量续作,现券多数走强,长端表现好于短端。二至周五,债市整体缺乏明显方向,股债跷跷板影响日内走 势,债券利率整体窄幅震荡。和上周五相比,10年期国债收益率上行1bp收于1.82%,10年期国开债收益率收平于1.94%,30年期国债收益率上行1bp收于 2.16%。信用债方面,上周非金融信用债一级发行量为4096亿元,较上周的2702亿元大幅增长,偿还量差异不大,故净融资额亦增长明显,由上周的231 亿元增长至1324亿元。二级方面,本周债券收益率中等久期品种表现较好,具体而言,1Y基本不变、3Y下行0-2b ...
债券研究周报:债市情绪处于分歧之中-20251124
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-24 10:31
Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report dated November 24, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 18 - 24, the bond market seller sentiment rose while the buyer sentiment declined again, with the two diverging, and the seller view divergence index also rose to a relatively high level. Despite the optimistic factors brought by the calendar effect, market sentiment remains contradictory and institutional caution persists [5]. Section Summaries 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted index was 0.42, up 0.04 from November 11 - 17, and the proportion of market - bullish views increased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 7 are moderately bullish, 14 are neutral, and 1 is moderately bearish. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing factors such as economic fundamentals pressure, monetary policy easing expectations, seasonal patterns, and institutional scramble for allocation. 29% are moderately bullish, due to the deepening asset - shortage pattern, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and the year - end "calendar effect". 58% are neutral, as there is a tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, bond yields are in a range - bound oscillation, the market is in a "policy vacuum period", and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate within the regulatory - approved range. 4% are moderately bearish, believing that the main logic is the lack of incremental funds in the bond market, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may strengthen, and the bond market's easing environment is hard to sustain [6][13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted sentiment index was - 0.08, down from November 11 - 17. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bearish views: 2 are moderately bullish, 18 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 8% of institutions are moderately bullish, based on monetary policy easing expectations, recovery in allocation demand, and potential decline in risk appetite. 75% are neutral, due to policy uncertainty, the asset - shortage pattern, a capped - and - floored market, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, believing that policies fall short of expectations, structural interest rate cuts hit liquidity expectations, and policy guidance may divert funds to the equity market [7][14].
野村行业观察 | 段冰、高路延关于中国AI行业、利率策略的最新观点分享
野村集团· 2025-11-24 10:06
段冰:中国AI产业差异化优势显著 应用场景与制造业基础成突围关键 近日,野村科技及电讯行业分析师段冰在2025野村中国投资年会上表示,尽管国内在AI算力基础上与海 外存在差距,但中国凭借丰富的应用场景和庞大的用户基础,正在探索一条差异化的AI发展路径。 段冰表示,大模型技术迭代仍处于快速阶段,国内AI市场的优势在于能够利用消费者领域和企业领域的 海量用户数据,在应用层面实现快速迭代,从而部分弥补先进算力的不足。他强调,中国在AI应用与高 精密制造业的结合方面具有独特优势,尤其是在自动驾驶、机器人等领域,这种"软硬结合"的能力将成 近日,野村在深圳举办第十七届中国投资年会。野村科技及电讯行业分析师段冰先生和野村亚洲利率策 略师高路延女士在媒体交流会上发表观点并接受采访。以下两篇文章均源自《证券时报》的专篇报道。 为中国AI产业发展的重要突破口。随着"十五五"规划建议对高新科技产业的重点支持,中国AI产业有望 在应用层面实现弯道超车。 在近日举行的2025野村中国投资年会媒体分享会上,野村亚洲利率策略师高路延表示,今年显著的股 债"跷跷板"现象在未来一段时间内仍可能持续,这与当前市场缺乏明确主线密切相关。 高路延 ...
债市对利多钝化,逢高再考虑介入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 08:53
一、债市策略总览 1.1 海外部分美国11月Markit综合PMI(54.8)创4个月以来新高,其中服务业PMI(55)供需两旺,而制 造业PMI(51.9)创4个月以来新低,主因需求放缓和成本上行压力。在借贷成本走低下,10月成屋销 售创八个月以来新高。劳动力数据喜忧参半,9月非农就业新增11.9万,远超预期,但7~8月合计下修 3.3万。劳动力参与率上升拉动9月失业率上行至4.44%,叠加时薪环比从前值0.3%降至0.2%,指向用人 需求放缓。此外,最新一周初请失业金人数虽下降,但续请人数创2021年10月以来新高,劳动力市场趋 弱压力犹存。威廉姆斯等票委表态偏鸽,带动12月CME降息预期从44.4%上行至71%,但在数据缺失 下,不排除12月暂停降息。日本10月核心CPI同比(3%)连续18个月高于2%,三季度GDP环比 (-0.4%)为六个季度以来首次负增,在滞胀压力下,政府推出21.3万亿日元刺激计划推升财政压力。 欧元区11月综合PMI初值(52.4)略低于预期,其中服务业扩张,制造业萎缩。在能源价格拖累下,欧 元区10月CPI同比(2.1%)较前值回落0.1个百分点。综合来看,在美国经济韧性+欧 ...
股弱债不强,意味着什么
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-23 12:19
股债定价各有独立逻辑,定价的结果或均偏向止盈。 投资要点: 市 场 策 略 周 报 股弱债不强,意味着什么 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读: 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 区间震荡行情延续 2025.11.22 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落,存单发行提升,6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 请务必阅读正文之后 ...