Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.087, UK 4.480, France 3.484, Germany 2.749, Italy 3.468, Spain 3.226, Switzerland 0.156, Greece 3.357, Japan 1.865, Brazil 6.150, China 1.828, Australia 4.554, New Zealand 4.316 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.531, UK 3.746, Germany 2.061, Japan 1.015, Italy 2.202, China (1Y yield) 1.401, Australia 3.825 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.356, South Africa zar 17.092, Korean won 1467.250, Thai baht 31.993, Malaysian ringgit 4.132. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.076, and 6.934 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6812.630, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47289.330, Nasdaq 23275.920, Mexican stock index 63551.130, UK stock index 9702.530, France CAC 8097.000, Germany DAX 23589.440, Spanish stock index 16389.000, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 49303.280, Hang Seng Index 26033.260, Shanghai Composite Index 3914.006, Taiwan stock index 27342.530, South Korean stock index 3920.370, Indian stock index 8548.788, Thai stock index 1276.570, Malaysian stock index 1624.570, Australian stock index 8866.382, emerging - economy stock index 1368.270 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.865, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 408.600 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3914.01, 4576.49, 2993.68, 3092.50, and 7101.83 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.65%, 1.10%, 0.81%, 1.31%, and 1.00% [4] Valuation - The PE(TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.05, 11.90, 32.32, 27.08, and 18.29 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.11, 0.07, 0.29, - 0.14, and - 0.19 [4] Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.39 and 2.72 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05 and 0.00 [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 206.88, - 98.60, (not available), - 41.57, and 144.99 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 226.26, - 183.11, (not available), - 26.40, and 23.23 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data Stock Market - The latest trading volume and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: total trading volume 18739.38 (with a环比 change of 2881.42), CSI 300 4638.62 (1220.30), SSE 50 1128.13 (277.81), SME board 3556.73 (458.47), ChiNext 5183.01 (615.80) [5] - The basis and basis - to - spot ratios of IF, IH, and IC are: basis - 21.09, - 7.28, - 70.23; basis - to - spot ratios - 0.46%, - 0.24%, - 0.99% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: closing prices 108.25, 105.80, 108.04, 105.84; percentage changes 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09% [5] Fund Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3713%, 1.4931%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 15.00BP, - 3.00BP, 0.00BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report This week (from November 24th to November 28th), the capital interest rates were differentiated, the daily average of large - bank lending increased, and funds slightly reduced leverage; the maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield curve of certificate of deposit maturity steepened; in terms of spot bond transactions, the main buyers were large banks, mainly increasing holdings of 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds, while funds and securities firms were the main sellers, with funds mainly selling 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, and insurance companies continuing to increase allocations to 20 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Currency and Capital Market - A total of 1,676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 1,511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, injected 1,000 billion yuan of MLF on Tuesday (900 billion yuan of MLF matured on the same day), and 300 billion yuan of outright repurchases matured on Friday. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 364.2 billion yuan. 1,000 billion yuan of outright repurchases will mature next Friday [7][10]. - As of November 28th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.43%, 1.52%, 1.3%, and 1.47% respectively, with changes of 3.75BP, 2.7BP, - 1.76BP, and 2.6BP compared to November 24th, and were at the 19%, 9%, 11%, and 4% historical quantiles respectively [7][13]. - The daily average of large - bank lending increased slightly. From November 24th to November 28th, the total lending scale of large banks was 19.24 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily lending scale of 4 trillion yuan and a daily average lending scale of 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.22 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][17]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased. The daily average trading volume was 7.09 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily volume of 7.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.77% compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with a daily average proportion of 86.7% and a maximum daily proportion of 91.1%, a decrease of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 95.4% quantile as of November 28th [7][19]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased this week, and the net financing amount increased. The total issuance volume was 559.25 billion yuan, an increase of 26.22 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity volume was 802.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.99 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing amount was - 242.79 billion yuan, an increase of 130.41 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][23]. - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of inter - bank certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 115.11 billion yuan, 192.21 billion yuan, 194.55 billion yuan, and 46.38 billion yuan respectively, with changes of 33.46 billion yuan, 18.8 billion yuan, - 22.9 billion yuan, and - 1.08 billion yuan compared to the previous week [23]. - By term type, the 9 - month issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 48.88 billion yuan, 107.26 billion yuan, 144.51 billion yuan, 153.97 billion yuan, and 104.63 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 440 million yuan, 90.31 billion yuan, - 32.12 billion yuan, 71.31 billion yuan, and - 102.84 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The 9 - month certificates of deposit accounted for the highest proportion of the total issuance of certificates of deposit by different types of banks, at 27.53%, mainly due to more issuances by state - owned banks; the 6 - month term accounted for 25.84%, mainly due to more issuances by city commercial banks [24]. - The maturity volume of certificates of deposit decreased this week. The total maturity volume was 802.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.99 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The certificates of deposit maturing next week (from December 1st to December 5th) will be 448.81 billion yuan [28]. - This week, the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of most banks increased, and the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of most terms increased. By bank type, as of November 28th, the issuance interest rates of one - year certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by 1.04BP, 0BP, - 0.7BP, and 2BP respectively compared to November 21st, and were at the 4%, 5%, 3%, and 7% historical quantiles; by term, as of November 28th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month certificates of deposit changed by 4.74BP, 0.68BP, and - 2.9BP respectively compared to November 21st, and were at the 5%, 3%, and 2% historical quantiles [30]. - This week, the Shibor interest - rate curve steepened. As of November 28th, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month Shibor interest rates changed by - 1.9BP, 2BP, 0.7BP, 0.1BP, and 0.2BP respectively compared to November 21st, reaching 1.3%, 1.44%, 1.53%, 1.52%, and 1.58% [32]. - This week, the yield curve of certificate of deposit maturity steepened. As of November 28th, the 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year maturity yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.45%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively, with changes of - 4.5BP, 0.15BP, 0.5BP, 0.75BP, and 0.5BP compared to November 21st [7][34]. - This week, the bill interest rates were differentiated. As of November 28th, the 3 - month national - share direct discount rate, 3 - month national - share transfer discount rate, 6 - month national - share direct discount rate, and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate were 0.75%, 0.42%, 0.87%, and 0.78% respectively, with changes of 3BP, - 21BP, 5BP, and - 4BP compared to November 21st [7][38]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased. As of November 28th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 105.98% compared to November 21st, and was at the 8.10% historical quantile since 2021 [40]. - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds decreased slightly. As of November 28th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 102.7%, 179.2%, 130.2%, and 104.4% respectively, with changes of - 0.51BP, - 12.87BP, 0.93BP, and - 0.13BP compared to November 21st, and were at the 2%, 0%, 80%, and 7% historical quantiles respectively as of November 28th [7][42]. - The central value of the net - buying duration of funds turned negative, while rural commercial banks and wealth - management products increased their durations. As of November 28th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was - 2.62 years, turning negative compared to 2.56 years on November 21st, and was at the 5% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.54 years, increasing compared to November 21st, and was at the 68% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 0.46 years, increasing compared to November 21st, and was at the 36% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurance companies was 10.21 years, decreasing compared to November 21st, and was at the 71% historical quantile [7][44]. - The duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased this week. As of November 28th, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased by 0.09 years to 3.33 years compared to November 21st, and was at the 18% historical quantile since this year; the duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.05 years to 1.45 years compared to November 21st, and was at the 34% historical quantile since this year [48].

Report Summary Core View - The report analyzes the factors affecting the Treasury bond market, suggesting to focus on the layout opportunities of far - month contracts and be aware of the short - term volatility risks caused by the widening basis [2] Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - The funding situation has eased, and the inter - bank liquidity has significantly improved after the impact of the tax period has subsided [2] - The central bank has restarted Treasury bond trading operations, providing direct buying demand for the market [2] Bearish Factors - The economic fundamentals remain weak, and indicators such as investment and exports continue to face pressure [2] - The rise in US Treasury yields exerts external pressure on domestic bond yields [2] Data Analysis Yield and Spread - The report presents the historical data of Treasury bond yields for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y, as well as the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y [3][4][5] Trading Volume and Open Interest - It shows the historical trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, and also mentions the open interest of Treasury bond futures [8][18] Basis and Spread - The historical basis data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided, along with the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of these contracts [9][10][11][17][19] - The cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are also presented [20][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The money market in October was looser than in September, with overall downward movement in money market rates, and the rates basically returning to the historical fluctuation range. The weak credit demand and the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading alleviated the tightness of the money market in October [2][11][16]. - It is expected that the money market in November will remain stable compared to October. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading may have a short - term impact on the money market, but in the long run, it may "crowd out" the quota of other liquidity tools, and the money market rates will return to be priced by regular factors such as the central bank's attitude and fundamental conditions [5][40][48]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - Month Review: Looser than September - **Money Market Rates**: In October, the operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 decreased by 5bp, 4bp, and 5bp respectively compared to the previous period, and those of R001, R007, and R014 also decreased by 5bp, 4bp, and 8bp respectively. The proportion of time that DR001 ran below the policy rate increased by 31 percentage points to 83%, and that of DR007 running below "policy rate + 10bp" rose by 7 percentage points to 72%. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate in October was 6bp, narrowing from 10bp in September [2][11]. - **Return to Historical Fluctuation Range**: After experiencing an unexpected tightening in the first quarter, the money market rates gradually declined in the second quarter and basically returned to the historical fluctuation range in the third quarter. In October, the rates further declined, returning to the historical average level both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the monthly average deviation of DR007 from the policy rate reaching a new low in 2025 and falling into the historical "normal" fluctuation range [13]. - **Reasons for the Decline in Money Market Rates**: In October, the central bank's total capital injection was only 4.7 billion, far less than the average of 253.7 billion in the past five years. The reasons for the decline in money market rates may be the weak credit demand in October (as indicated by the rapid decline of the six - month transfer discount rate of national and joint - stock banks approaching 0%) and the announcement on October 27 by Governor Pan Gongsheng about resuming open - market treasury bond trading, which alleviated the tightness of the money market at the end of the month [3][16]. - **Performance of Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: Most inter - bank CD yields declined in October, except for a 1bp increase in the average yield of 3M CDs compared to September. The 1Y CD issuance rates of various banks showed an inverted V - shaped trend in October, rising in the first half of the month and falling significantly after the expectation of resuming treasury bond trading was realized [23]. - **Fund Stratification Pressure**: The spreads between R001 and DR001, and between R007 and DR007 in October were basically the same as in September, and the fund stratification pressure remained at a low level within the year [28]. 11 - Month Outlook: May Remain Stable Compared to October - **Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading**: In 2024, the central bank net - bought 1 trillion in treasury bonds, including 1.4 trillion in short - term bonds and sold 400 billion in long - term bonds, with a net injection of 1 trillion in liquidity into the market. If calculated based on the proportion of the central bank's short - term bond purchases to the large banks' net purchases in 2024, the central bank may inject nearly 1 trillion in liquidity through treasury bond purchases in the future. In addition, large banks' net purchases of 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds in August and September 2025 may indicate that the central bank may also buy treasury bonds with maturities over 3 years in the future, further increasing the liquidity injection. In October, the central bank net - bought 200 million in treasury bonds, a relatively low scale [4][34]. - **Relationship between MLF, Reverse Repos, and Treasury Bond Trading**: Historically, MLF and reverse repos have mostly shown an inverse relationship. Treasury bond trading may also "crowd out" the scale of other liquidity tools. Although the central bank net - injected 3.7 trillion through treasury bond trading and outright reverse repos from August to December 2024, reverse repos and MLF net - withdrew 2.8905 trillion, and the total injection scale was not high compared to the same period in previous years. The impact of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading on the money market may be short - term, and in the long run, the central bank will make "trade - offs" among different liquidity tools [5][37][38]. - **Government Bond Net Financing Pressure**: In November, due to the decline in the maturity scale of treasury bonds, the net financing pressure of government bonds will increase month - on - month. It is estimated that the net financing scale of treasury bonds in November will be about 739.8 billion, and that of local bonds will be about 231.8 billion, with a total net financing scale of about 1.23 trillion, significantly higher than the 528.1 billion in October [41]. - **Excess Reserve Ratio**: In November, fiscal expenditures may support the money market, but the increase in currency issuance and required reserve base will basically offset this support. Considering the maturity of MLF, outright reverse repos, and treasury cash fixed - term deposits in November, the liquidity gap is about 2 trillion. Assuming equal - amount roll - overs of these monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in November is about 1.08%, which may be the same as in October [44][46]. - **Overall Outlook**: It is expected that the money market in November will remain stable compared to October, with DR001 mostly running below the policy rate and DR007 continuing to run at the 1.5% level [48].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on October 23, with government bond futures closing down across the board, while interbank bond yields experienced a minor rebound. The net liquidity withdrawal from the open market was 23.5 billion yuan, leading to a slight decline in funding rates. Analysts suggest that the new fund redemption regulations set to take effect in November may limit the downward potential of yields for a certain period. Despite ongoing trade uncertainties, the likelihood of liquidity easing remains strong, indicating limited upward risks for bond yields [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.34% to 115.21, the 10-year main contract down by 0.12% to 108.035, the 5-year main contract down by 0.07% to 105.645, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.02% to 102.336 [2]. - Interbank major rate bond yields initially decreased before rising, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.911%, the 30-year government bond yield up by 1 basis point to 2.196%, and the 10-year government bond yield up by 1 basis point to 1.837% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.43 basis points to 3.4403%, the 3-year yield down by 1.12 basis points to 3.4386%, the 5-year yield down by 0.52 basis points to 3.5464%, the 10-year yield down by 0.58 basis points to 3.9474%, and the 30-year yield down by 0.66 basis points to 4.5287% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.2 basis points to 1.666% [4]. - In the Eurozone, bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year UK bond yield down by 6 basis points to 4.416%, while the 10-year French bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 3.353%, the 10-year German bond yield up by 1.1 basis points to 2.562%, the 10-year Italian bond yield up by 0.5 basis points to 3.346%, and the 10-year Spanish bond yield up by 1 basis point to 3.089% [4]. Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank's 1-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3649% and 1.6815%, respectively, with overall multiples of 2.31 and 3.94, and marginal multiples of 1.11 and 6.2 [5]. - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.7342% and 1.9415%, respectively, with overall multiples of 3.04 and 4.56, and marginal multiples of 3.24 and 3.38 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - On October 23, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate and quantity, totaling 212.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total amount of reverse repos maturing that day was 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [6]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a tender for 2025 central treasury cash management deposits, with a total winning amount of 120 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.76% [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.318%, the 7-day rate down by 0.5 basis points to 1.417%, the 14-day rate up by 6.0 basis points to 1.512%, and the 1-month rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.556% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the supply of Chinese dollar bonds is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, but supply elasticity may rise. With interest rate cuts, cross-border allocation demand, and a decline in credit risk, the yields on Chinese dollar bonds are expected to decrease further. The focus should be on high coupon rates and capital gains opportunities, with potential disruptions from tariffs, exchange rates, and foreign debt regulations [8]. - CITIC Securities notes that the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economy may lead to a sustained weakening of the U.S. dollar index. The Chinese central bank's policies are expected to be flexible to mitigate expectations of a one-sided currency trend [8].

Group 1: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The funding rates remain low, with R001 averaging around 1.35% and R007 around 1.47% during the week of October 13-17, 2025[1][12] - Despite nearly 2 trillion in open market maturities, liquidity achieved self-balancing due to central bank support and low government debt payment pressure[1][11] - The overnight rate is expected to continue fluctuating around OMO-5bp, with R007 likely to stay below 1.50%[2][17] Group 2: Open Market Operations - From October 20-24, the reverse repo maturity will be 789.1 billion, significantly lower than the average of 1.1 trillion since 2025[2][17] - The central bank net drained 581.9 billion in the week of October 13-17, with reverse repos maturing at 1.021 trillion[3][22] - The net reverse repo balance as of October 17 was 789.1 billion, down from 1.137 trillion on October 11[3][24] Group 3: Government Bonds and Payments - Government bond net payments for October 20-24 are projected at 158.4 billion, up from 140.2 billion the previous week[5][30] - The increase in net payments is primarily due to a rise in local government bond issuance, which increased by 177.6 billion[5][32] - The net issuance of treasury bonds decreased from 181.1 billion to 21.6 billion, influenced by a significant increase in maturity amounts[5][32] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is expected to remain manageable, with 616.7 billion maturing from October 20-24[6][38] - The weighted issuance rate for one-year CDs was 1.63%, a slight increase from the previous week[6][36] - The net financing from CDs turned positive at 234 billion, with total issuance at 727.6 billion during the week of October 13-17[6][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in September 2025 tightened slightly compared to August, but the tightening amplitude was limited compared to the historical average. The central bank's net capital injection was relatively high, and the capital stratification pressure remained low. In October, the capital market may maintain a marginal tightening trend, with the capital center likely to remain stable or rise slightly [2][6] 9 - Month Review: Marginal Tightening Compared to August - **Capital Rate Central Uplift**: In September, the central points of various - term capital rates increased slightly. The operating central points of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rose by 4bp, 1bp, and 3bp respectively. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate widened slightly to 9bp [2][12] - **Limited Tightening Compared to History**: Historically, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate in September usually widens compared to August. However, in 2025, the tightening amplitude of the capital rate was lower than the historical average since 2016 [2][17] - **High Central Bank Net Investment**: As of the 28th, the central bank's net capital injection in September reached 97.6 billion yuan, second only to September 2023. The capital market showed a different trend from previous years, with an upward trend around the tax period and a slight decline at the end of the month [2][20] - **Increase in Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Yields**: The central points of inter - bank certificate of deposit yields for various terms increased significantly compared to August. The issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of various banks also showed an upward trend, indicating some pressure on the liability side of banks before the quarter - end [3][23] - **Low Capital Stratification Pressure**: The R - DR spread remained at a low level. The spread between R001 and DR001 narrowed slightly, while the spread between R007 and DR007 widened slightly, but overall, the stratification pressure was at a historical low [3] 10 - Month Outlook: May Maintain a Marginal Tightening Trend - **Historical Experience of Horizontal Movement of Shibor 3M**: Since May 2025, Shibor 3M has been horizontally moving for nearly 90 days and started to rise at the end of September. Historically, after horizontal movement, capital rates mostly declined, but the two instances of decline within 30 days after horizontal movement both occurred in October [4] - **Seasonal Pattern in October**: Seasonally, the capital market in October usually tightens. The spread between Shibor 3M and the OMO 7 - day rate in October usually widens compared to September, with an average increase of 10bp since 2018. The capital rate often shows a flat trend in the first half of the month and an upward trend in the second half [5] - **Credit and Capital Relationship**: If credit rebounds in the fourth quarter, the capital rate may rise. The growth rate of social financing stock peaked and declined in August. As debt replacement ends in the fourth quarter, corporate credit may bottom out and rebound. Historically, the trend of Shibor 3M is generally consistent with the growth rates of social financing stock and corporate medium - and long - term loans [5] - **Analysis of Liquidity Gap**: In October, the net financing pressure of government bonds will decrease significantly. However, as it is a large tax - paying month at the beginning of the quarter, the liquidity gap may be about 90 billion yuan. Considering the maturity of various monetary tools, the liquidity gap will increase to 3.1 trillion yuan. Assuming equal - amount renewal, the estimated excess reserve ratio in September is about 1.06% [52][54]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market, with bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment supporting the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly, showing stable market sentiment and attracting buyers. However, there are also negative factors such as better - than - expected import and export data (4.8% export growth) and high risk preference. It is recommended to closely monitor the capital situation and economic fundamentals and maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Bond Market Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment support the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly attracts buyers [3] - Negative factors: Import and export data are better than expected (4.8% export growth), which may push up interest rate expectations, and high risk preference increases the pressure of capital diversion [3] Yield and Interest Rate - The report presents the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08, as well as the trends of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [4] Term Spread - It shows the trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [4] Futures Position and Trading Volume - The trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures positions from 2015/12 to 2023/12 and trading volumes from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [8][9] Basis and Spread - The report shows the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures basis for the current quarter, as well as the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures spreads between the current and next quarters from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for 30 - year from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [10][17][20] - It also presents the trends of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [21][22]