Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to expire this week, alongside other factors such as MLF expirations and government bond issuances, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted reverse repo operations totaling 4.384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while the total reverse repos maturing during this period amounted to 6.942 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in September, with analysts predicting that funding rates will likely continue to operate at low levels with minimal fluctuations due to supportive monetary policy and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 2: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is characterized by increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly as fiscal spending typically accelerates towards the end of the month, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment [6][7]. - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various asset classes, while the end-of-quarter credit issuance may be more pronounced than in previous years, potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as multiple factors contribute to a funding gap at the beginning of September, although the overall funding rates remain stable and are expected to continue in a "low and stable" manner [1][5]. Group 1: Funding Gap and Central Bank Operations - The central bank has conducted reverse repos totaling 4,384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while 6,942 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,558 billion yuan [3]. - On September 1, the central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at a rate of 1.40%, with 2,884 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 1,057 billion yuan [2]. - On September 2, the central bank conducted a 2,557 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at the same rate, with 4,058 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - Despite the pressures from maturing funds, the short-term liquidity has not shown significant volatility, with the overnight Shibor rate decreasing by 1.6 basis points to 1.315% on September 1 [3]. - The Shibor rates for various tenors showed mixed trends, with the overnight Shibor at 1.314% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.431%, both showing slight declines [4]. - Analysts expect that the funding rates will likely remain low and stable due to the central bank's supportive policies and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 3: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is expected to see increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly due to heightened bank liquidity demands and cash preparation needs ahead of holidays [6]. - The capital market's performance is a significant factor to monitor, as a strong equity market may drive funds to reallocate across various assets [6]. - The combination of government bond supply, maturing medium- and long-term liquidity, and the expiration of certificates of deposit may amplify funding volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a strong performance in the equity market, which is boosting market risk appetite and may continue to drive fund reallocation across various asset classes [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - In early September, the focus on liquidity in the financial market has intensified, with over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - Despite the central bank's net withdrawal operations, overall funding rates remained stable, indicating market expectations for future central bank policies and fiscal spending [1][4] - The central bank's operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan over the first two days of September due to a larger amount of reverse repos maturing than the amount operated [2][3] Group 2: Funding Pressure - The upcoming month of September will see significant maturities, including 30 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos and 30 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing from September 1 to September 5 is 22.731 billion yuan, indicating increasing funding pressure [2][3] Group 3: Interest Rates and Liquidity - Funding rates are expected to maintain a "low and stable" trend despite the pressures from multiple maturities and supply factors [4] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend in early September, with the overnight Shibor falling to 1.314% and the seven-day Shibor to 1.431% [3] - Analysts expect that the funding environment will remain reasonably ample, supported by central bank policies and increased fiscal spending [4][5] Group 4: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September typically sees a seasonal increase in funding demand due to quarter-end liquidity needs and pre-holiday cash requirements [5][6] - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive further fund reallocation across asset classes [6] - Non-seasonal factors, such as government bond supply and maturing deposits, may also amplify funding volatility [6]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on September 1, with overall minor fluctuations in the morning and a recovery in the afternoon, leading to a slight decline in interbank bond yields [1] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan in the open market, with significant drops in funding rates at the beginning of the month [1] Bond Futures - All major bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30% to 116.910, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.000, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.595 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.25 basis points to 2.02%, while the yields on the 10-year government bonds showed a slight decline [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.31 basis points to 4.224% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally rose, with the 10-year yield up by 1.9 basis points to 1.627% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 3.4 basis points to 3.512% [3] Primary Market - The Agricultural Development Bank of China issued financial bonds with yields of 1.3785% for 91-day, 1.6741% for 3-year, and 1.7824% for 5-year bonds, with strong bid-to-cover ratios [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down by 1.6 basis points to 1.315%, marking a new low since September 2022 [5] Institutional Insights - There has been limited capital flow from the bond market to the stock market, with some redemption in pure bond funds but a general trend towards "fixed income plus" strategies [6] - The capital market's gradual improvement is expected to shift wealth allocation from deposits and fixed income towards equity assets, indicating a potential new cycle in wealth distribution [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].

Group 1 - A-shares continue to perform strongly with a half-day trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 571.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.86% and the ChiNext Index up 2.22%, reaching a three-year high [1] - There is a strong willingness for incremental capital to enter the market, driven by substantial household savings waiting to be invested and a margin financing balance remaining above 2 trillion yuan; additionally, foreign capital has begun to flow into A-shares for the first time since October of last year [1] - The bond futures market has seen significant increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.8%, currently at 116.830 points, and the 10-year and 5-year contracts also showing gains [1] Group 2 - Since 2010, only fundamentally driven stock bull markets have led to bear markets in bonds, while fund-driven bull markets have not; the major stock bull markets since 2010 include a fund-driven bull market from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015, and a recovery-driven bull market in 2017 and 2020 [2] - The current stock market rally is expected to influence bond market investor expectations, but the bond market's performance will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals, with a potential decoupling from stock market trends [2] - The bond market's largest allocation force, bank proprietary investments, has seen a significant increase, with bank holdings of bonds reaching 99 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of the total bond market [3] Group 3 - Economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, with consumer subsidies potentially overstretching demand in the home appliance sector and investment growth declining significantly [4] - The central bank may consider restarting government bond purchases to stabilize issuance costs and prevent risks in the bond market, especially as government bond yields have recently risen [4] - Banks are expected to increase their bond allocations due to declining funding costs and weak credit demand, with the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks projected to drop below 1.7% in Q4 2025 [5] Group 4 - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [6]

Group 1 - Recent domestic money market interest rates have shown a comprehensive upward trend, with short-term rates rising due to tax payments and government bond issuance, while medium to long-term rates are also increasing due to recovering financing demand and a stable stock market [1] - As of August 19, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for various terms has increased, with overnight, 1-week, 2-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year rates reported at 1.464%, 1.517%, 1.599%, 1.528%, 1.55%, 1.61%, 1.637%, and 1.647%, respectively, showing increases of 14.9, 8.4, 14.3, 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.8, and 0.9 basis points compared to August 12 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has a total of 711.8 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, and has already injected 846.8 billion yuan into the market through reverse repos in the first two working days, indicating a likelihood of significant liquidity injection to stabilize short-term rates [1] Group 2 - Future expectations indicate a short-term weak and long-term strong pattern for domestic market interest rates, with the peak period for tax payments ending and the PBOC increasing reverse repo operations, leading to a potential decline in short-term rates [2] - Continuous improvement in financing data and favorable performance in the domestic capital market are expected to increase medium to long-term funding demand, which may strengthen long-term interest rates [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange - rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.319%, 4.696%, 3.467% respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.033, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.099, and an annual change of 0.375 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on August 15, 2025, were 3.927%, 1.970%, 0.822% respectively. Similar to the 10 - year yields, the changes in different time - frames differed across countries [3]. - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 15, 2025, the exchange rates against South Africa's ZAR, Brazil, Russia, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For instance, against South Africa's ZAR, the latest change was - 0.29%, the weekly change was - 0.61%, the monthly change was - 4.12%, and the annual change was not provided in the context [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, France CAC, etc. had their closing prices on August 15, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6449.800, with a latest change of - 0.29%, a weekly change of 0.94%, a monthly change of 2.43%, and an annual change of 24.05% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The indices of emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds had their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.10%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 1.48%, and an annual change of 5.08% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the A - share closed at 3696.77 with a 0.83% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.46 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and Germany DAX were given. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.66 with a - 0.02环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was 931.56, and the 5 - day average was - 217.38 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22446.12 with a - 345.97环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC were provided. For example, the basis of IF was 7.05 with a 0.17% spread [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. For example, T00 closed at 108.295 with a - 0.10% change [6]. - The money market interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.4391% with a - 3.00 BP daily change [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (August 11 - 15), the capital interest rate increased, the average daily lending of large - scale banks rose month - on - month, and funds slightly reduced leverage. - The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the maturity yields of most CDs with various tenors rose. - In the spot bond trading, the main buyers were money market funds, mainly increasing their holdings of CDs. Funds mainly net sold 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large - scale banks increased their purchases of 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Capital - **Open - market operations**: A total of 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 85.1 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][8] - **Capital price**: As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.44%, 1.49%, 1.4%, and 1.48% respectively, up 9.78BP, 3.2BP, 9.03BP, and 5.47BP from August 8, and were at the 19%, 8%, 17%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively. [5][11] - **Large - scale bank lending**: From August 11 to 15, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 24.54 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 5 trillion yuan and an average daily lending of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan from the previous week's average. [5][14] - **Pledged repurchase**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 8.15 trillion yuan and a daily maximum of 8.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.52% from the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 89.8%, a daily maximum of 90.6%, and a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week's average. As of August 15, it was at the 88.6% percentile. [5][16] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing**: The issuance scale of CDs this week was basically the same as last week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 774.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 300 million yuan from the previous week; the net financing was - 130.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 307.67 billion yuan from the previous week. [5][18] - **Maturity scale**: The maturity volume of CDs increased this week, with a total of 905.64 billion yuan, an increase of 307.37 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week (August 18 - 22), 794.72 billion yuan of CDs will mature. [18][23] - **Maturity yield**: As of August 15, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively, up 1.1BP, - 0.5BP, 1.26BP, 1.76BP, and 2.25BP from August 8. [5][31] - **Bill interest rate**: As of August 15, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - owned stocks were 1.13%, 0.95%, 0.7%, and 0.63% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8. [5][33] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of August 15, the inter - bank total leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.71% from August 8, at the 39.40% historical percentile since 2021. The bank, securities, insurance, and broad - based fund leverage ratios were 103.9%, 187.8%, 129.3%, and 104.9% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.26BP, - 10.62BP, 1.16BP, and - 0.19BP from August 8, and were at the 43%, 1%, 76%, and 20% historical percentiles respectively. [36][38] - **Duration adjustment**: Funds reduced duration, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies increased duration. As of August 15, the weighted average net - purchase duration (MA = 10) of funds was 0 years, a significant decrease from 4.23 years on August 8, at the 23% historical percentile; that of rural commercial banks was 3.26 years, turning positive from August 8, at the 82% historical percentile; that of insurance companies was 10.58 years, an increase from August 8, at the 77% historical percentile. [5][40]