事实上，这个问题背后藏着两个常见的误解：一是将"稳健"简单等同于"零波动"，二是低估了时间对波动的稀释与化解。 这种思维定式，导致部分投资者将养老资金全部投向银行存款等低风险理财手段，看似规避了市场波动，实则暴露于更隐 蔽的风险——购买力的持续缩水。 从宏观经济视角观察，"广义货币M2增速与GDP增速之差"构成的"真实通胀率"指标，揭示了货币超发的现实。 国家统计局数据显示，2014至2025年间我国真实通胀率在0.4%-8.7%区间波动，中位数、平均值分别为4.3%、4.0%。 若以4%的温和通胀率计算，30年后100万元的实际购买力将缩水至约33万元。仅仅依靠低风险的储蓄类产品，养老金将很 难抵御这种渐进式的侵蚀。这种"温水煮青蛙"式的财富蒸发，恰恰是养老投资最致命的敌人。 数据来源：华夏基金，计算公式：实际购买力=初始金额/ (1 + 通胀率)^年数 即便考虑到经济发展转型进入新阶段等因素，理想的长期投资年化收益率仍不应低于4%-5%。 但现实是，我们正面临市场利率逐步走低的客观环境，这无疑给实现上述收益目标带来了挑战。 从国际经验来看，为应对低利率环境，不少国家的养老金在资产配置上已做出调整。 例如， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trade situation has a negative impact on the market sentiment. A - share major indices and stock index futures have declined, while treasury bond futures have strengthened. Commodity indices are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. - The Fed's dovish tone, tariff tensions, and the US government shutdown have weakened the US dollar. The euro remains strong, and the yen is mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar [6][10]. - The rise in international gold prices has driven up the core CPI, and the Chinese government's subsidy funds are expected to boost consumption. The trade situation is uncertain due to Trump's actions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 2.35%. A - share major indices fell collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were weaker. The market was affected by the trade situation, and the allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.06%, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.31%. Treasury bond futures strengthened, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index rose 6.93%, and the China Securities commodity futures price index rose 0.49%. Except for gold, other commodities performed poorly, and the allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.89%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract rose 0.86%. The US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes stabilizing market expectations; the Chinese government imposes special port fees on US ships; the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [14]. - **International News**: The US lowers EU auto tariffs to 15%; Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year; the IMF warns that global public debt will reach a new high by 2029 and raises the world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, M1 growth rate was 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 growth rate was 8.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: The October NAHB housing market index was 37 [17]. - **EU**: The August industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was - 1.2% [17]. - **UK**: The August three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, and the August manufacturing output monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Germany**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0.2% [17]. - **France**: The September CPI monthly rate was - 1% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 20**: China's one - year loan prime rate, September social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, September industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, and Germany's September PPI monthly rate [81]. - **October 22**: Japan's September commodity export year - on - year, UK's September CPI monthly rate, and September retail price index monthly rate [81]. - **October 23**: US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the eurozone's October consumer confidence index preliminary value [81]. - **October 24**: Japan's September core CPI year - on - year, UK's September seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, France's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and US September unadjusted CPI and core CPI year - on - year [81].

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted positive signs in the economy, including steady consumer recovery, moderate growth in capital expenditure, and overall improvement in corporate confidence [1][2] - Uchida emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making and the high uncertainty surrounding overseas economic conditions, trade policies, and price trends [1][2] Economic Indicators - Japan's economy is experiencing a "moderate recovery," but there are also signs of weakness [1] - The latest Tankan survey indicates that overall business confidence is "robust," particularly among some manufacturers due to reduced uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uchida noted that "potential inflation may stagnate for a period before gradually accelerating" [1] - The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price trends align with their forecasts, maintaining a gradual approach to exiting ultra-loose monetary policy [1] External Risks - Uchida warned of high uncertainty in external economic developments and stressed the need to be cautious about the impact of global trade policies on the economy, financial markets, and foreign exchange [2]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-17 M1M2剪刀差收窄，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告。（2） 通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：社融、信贷、M2 等总量指标仍在回落，表明经济内生动能偏弱、 需求恢复有限；但 M1 增 速持续上行、剪刀差收窄，说明资金 ...

美国众议院听证会上出现戏剧性一幕。财政部长贝森特被质问"谁为关税买单"时突然语塞，反复强调"问题复杂"不敢直接回应。这场尴尬交锋暴露了美国关 税政策的致命软肋——高盛最新报告显示，55%的关税成本最终由美国消费者承担，企业消化22%，外国供应商仅承担18%。 普通家庭正在为政治决策买单。耶鲁大学研究显示，新关税使美国家庭年均支出增加2400美元，服装和鞋类价格短期涨幅达40%。华盛顿州居民威尔逊已开 始囤积日用品，他坦言"关税威胁让每月多花100美元采购"。这种隐形税负对低收入群体冲击更甚，年收入3万美元家庭需多支出7%用于基本消费。 企业端同样伤痕累累。史丹利百得公司首席财务官承认将采取"主动定价策略"转嫁成本，约翰迪尔公司因钢铁关税损失超3亿美元。达拉斯联储调查显示， 60%零售商和70%制造商称关税产生负面影响。 通胀魔咒再度降临。高盛预测关税将推高核心PCE指数至3%，今年已累计拉升物价0.44%。哈佛商学院定价实验室追踪35万种商品发现，受关税影响商品平 均涨价5%，本土产品跟涨现象显著。 这场贸易战正演变为政治闹剧。贝森特曾公开宣称"贸易伙伴承担成本"，但国会研究局数据戳破谎言——90%关税由美国 ...

布鲁克斯指出，与会者对一个特定话题——黄金前景——的关注让他想起了2023年，那年恰逢10年期美 国国债收益率接近5%，为2007年以来的最高水平。 全球央行行长、财政部长和私营部门银行家本周齐聚华盛顿参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年度会 议，正如一位与会者所说，黄金价格成了"当下的热门话题"。 布鲁金斯学会智库全球经济与发展项目高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯（Robin Brooks）表示，这场热门讨论 实际上可能有助于抑制黄金价格的飙升。 圣路易斯联储前主席詹姆斯·布拉德（James Bullard）表示，从通胀角度来看，黄金的上涨"有点令人担 忧"，因为这表明人们认为美联储不可靠或无法抑制通胀。 国际货币基金组织追踪市场部门的负责人托比亚斯·阿德里安（Tobias Adrian）也认为，黄金价格的上涨 是投资者应对不确定性的一种体现。 阿德里安在接受采访时表示："显然，存在很多不确定性。这种情况在某个时候可能会缓解，但政策不 确定性指标按历史标准来看仍处于高位。" 阿德里安指出，央行的黄金购买量一直呈上升趋势，但购买速度没有重大变化。他说，黄金价格的上涨 是由于投资者增加了持仓，而不是范式的转变。 布鲁克斯 ...

周五（10月17日）亚洲时段，美元延续疲软态势走低，最新美元指数报98.182，跌幅0.17%，日内可关 注美国9月新屋开工总数年化(万户)、美国9月营建许可总数(万户)、美国9月进口物价指数月率等数据， 或影响美元走势波动。 在2025年10月美联储政策会议即将召开之际，美国经济正面临就业市场疲软与通胀压力并存的复杂局 面。周四(10月16日)多位美联储官员公开表态，普遍强化了对劳动力市场的担忧，同时对贸易关税引发 的通胀影响持相对乐观态度。 美元指数技术分析 周四（10月16日）美盘时段，美元指数小幅下跌，跌破98.714这一关键水平，该水平目前已转化为阻力 位。下一个重要支撑位为98.238，再往下则是50日均线所在的98.033——若跌破这一关键水平，可能引 发更大幅度的市场波动。 这不仅预示着本月降息几乎板上钉钉，还凸显了美联储内部鸽派声音的增强。沃勒作为潜在主席继任 者，支持渐进式降息；米兰则呼吁更激进行动；卡什卡利强调降息的"保险"作用。 自10月9日触及99.563的数月高点以来，美元指数持续回落，当前的抛售节奏仍较为平稳。然而，指数 向长期趋势指标逼近，预示未来可能出现更剧烈的波动。 今天美 ...

久期财经讯，10月16日，据悉，美联储发布的最新褐皮书显示，美国经济活动在近几周几乎没有变化，就业水平总体保持稳定，但通胀和关税带来的成本压 力依然存在。报告指出，整体消费者支出略有下降，而投入成本上升的现象在多个地区普遍存在。 美联储表示："由于关税导致的投入成本上升在许多地区都有所报告，但这些更高成本在最终价格中的传导程度各不相同。"一些企业为了保住客户选择维持 售价不变，而另一些则将更高的进口成本完全转嫁给消费者。 当前，美联储官员在是否继续降息的问题上存在分歧，他们需要在就业市场降温与通胀仍高于2%目标之间取得平衡。美联储主席鲍威尔本周二表示，美国 央行可能在本月晚些时候再次降息，并指出自9月下调基准利率并预计年内再降两次以来，经济前景"几乎没有变化"。期货市场数据显示，投资者普遍预 计，美联储10月28日至29日的会议上再度降息几乎是板上钉钉。 热点消息 每日发行总结 今日，一级市场，广东省政府拟发行多系列人民币债券，共2家公司发行： | 序号 | 信用主体 | 期限 | | --- | --- | --- | | l | 嵊州市投资控股有限 | 3年期 | | | 公司 | | | 2 | 菏泽市 ...

普徕仕环球投资方案主管(亚太区)兼基金经理Thomas Poullaouec及普徕仕亚洲投资委员会发表最新的全 球资产配置观点。其中指出，除美国政府在较长期限停摆对经济造成的负面影响外，缺乏官方数据将关 注已受压且数据依赖的美联储带来持续挑战。另外，美联储近期的减息重燃市场对小型股关注，但通胀 可能导致利率维持高位，加上近期就业市场疲弱或导致增速放缓，保持对小型股平衡观点。 普徕仕维持低配债券，因通胀及美国财政刺激的融资需求或令利率持续承压，尤其是长端利率。维持低 配美国长期国债，因收益曲线的长端较易受美国政府财政融资需求的上行压力影响。另外对现金的配置 稀释中性，以用于配置美国中小型股。现金可提供流动性，以把握市场错配下的机会。 近年来，减息预期曾多次推动关注小型股上扬，令其表现一度超越大型股，但可惜升势均未能持久。美 联储近期的减息重燃市场对小型股关注，其自4月低位以来跑赢大型股近4%，而大部分升幅在8月出 现。尽管相对估值仍具优势，且小型股盈利预期有所改善，但通胀可能导致利率维持高位，加上近期就 业市场疲弱或导致增速放缓，因此或宜保持经济平衡观点。 基于预期美联储减息、并购活动增加及放宽监管前景，普徕仕 ...

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.4%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were coal (+2.4%), banking (+1.4%), food and beverage (+1.0%), communication (+0.7%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-2.1%), non-ferrous metals (-2.1%), building materials (-1.9%), basic chemicals (-1.8%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.6%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 19,311 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.82 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value: -0.4%), which was lower than market expectations and prior forecasts (Wind consensus expectation: -0.1%). The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1% (previous value: 0%) [5] - The market anticipates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate is likely to turn positive quickly [5] - The M1-M2 gap is narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the migration of household deposits. In September, fiscal spending exceeded revenue, leading to an increase in both household and corporate deposits [6] - The forecast for excess household savings from 2020 to September 2025 is expected to decrease to 2.89 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.01 trillion yuan), with a notable slowdown in the decline of excess savings in September [6] Light Industry Strategy Report - For Q4 2025, the report emphasizes three main lines: 1) The new consumption sector continues to thrive, with potential valuation shifts for growth stocks. 2) Quality manufacturing and traditional consumption stocks at the bottom of the cycle are expected to see upward opportunities, along with high dividend value. 3) The overseas market is showing gradual improvement after tariff stabilization [8] - The new consumption sector is expected to maintain strong growth, with significant differentiation among companies. The international tobacco giants are continuing to grow, and the pet industry is anticipated to remain highly competitive during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - Quality manufacturing is expected to benefit from price increases in metal cans and favorable conditions in the paper and plastic packaging sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability in Q4 [9]