关税的本质就是对进口商品征税，这意味着，大部分成本最终会转嫁到美国消费者和企业身上。衣服、 电子产品、汽车零部件、日常消费品等价格可能会因此上涨。而美联储目前正为抗击顽固的通胀头疼， 特朗普的这一做法无疑会给美联储的抗通胀工作增添不小的压力。此外，全球其他经济体也会受到输入 性通胀的波及。特朗普此番操作，显然并不仅仅是针对中国，虽然他没有明言，但欧盟、日本、韩国等 传统盟友也极有可能成为这次关税升高的对象。特朗普的逻辑是无差别攻击：只要是对美国有贸易顺差 的国家，在他眼中就等于剥削了美国。这种做法将彻底颠覆二战后建立的国际贸易体系和盟友关系，将 国际秩序从基于规则的合作，带回到基于实力的野蛮丛林。 尽管特朗普并未直接点名，但中国无疑是最大的目标之一。现有的中美关税，很可能被纳入全球15%关 税框架之内，这对中国的外贸出口企业而言，意味着新的考验。但从另一方面看，这或许会迫使中国加 速向高附加值领域攀升，进一步推动一带一路建设，降低对美国市场的依赖。 特朗普在凌晨时分发文，宣布将美国对多个国家征收的全球10%关税提升至15%。他还语气强硬地宣 称，未来几个月内，政府将继续发布新的关税措施，推动让美国再次伟大的进 ...

在日本首相高市早苗推动公用事业补贴、压低家庭能源成本后，东京通胀指标放缓至一年多来的最低水平。 这一变化发生在日本央行推进加息进程之际，也给其政策沟通带来了新的挑战。东京CPI被视为全国价格走势的先行指标。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，2月东京地区剔除生鲜食品的消费者价格同比上涨1.8%，为2024年10月以来的最小涨幅，略高于 经济学家1.7%的预测中值。与此同时，一项同时剔除能源、用于衡量通胀内在强度的指标上涨2.5%，仍高于日本央行2%的目标。 市场此前就已经普遍预计，在政府降低电力和燃气费用措施的影响逐步反映到数据中后，通胀指标将连续第三个月走弱。周五公布 的数据进一步印证，日本物价涨势已进入降温阶段，主要原因在于高市的抗通胀举措以及食品价格涨幅放缓。 其中，能源价格同比下降9.2%，原因是政府自1月起实施、为期3个月的电力和燃气补贴计划开始生效。政府估算，该计划将在本季 度为一个普通家庭节省7300日元（46.75美元）。 日本央行此前也已表示，受公用事业补贴以及去年食品价格飙升形成的同比基数效应影响，今年上半年通胀可能会降至2%目标以 下。官员们强调，将重点关注潜在通胀趋势，而非一次性、暂时性的 ...

2/27黄金原油参考思路 黄金欧盘前反抽在5195附近空，防守5207，目标看5160/5150下方，回踩5145附近多，防守5132，目标看5180/5200一 线，站稳5200看5220/30一线 原油反抽在65.5附近空，防守66.3，目标看63.5/62.5附近 原油方面，随着美伊谈判取得有效的进展，后续美对伊朗的制裁可能会逐步取消或者放松，那么供应端的压力就会再 度减弱，加之短期美原油库存超预期的大幅回升，在供需两端都缺乏更多利好支撑油价，我们近期跟大家分享的67附 近高位空单也是如期兑现到了64目标位，上个交易日原油一度回踩到了63.5附近，短期的话继续看原油弱势延续，关注 62.5/63一带支撑情况，有效跌破就看60关口了，同时继续关注美伊谈判最终结果的出炉，在没有尘埃落地之前可能也 还会有变数。 黄金震荡不追单，原油看空头延续！ 上个交易日美伊新一轮谈判取得实质性的进展，在美方的层层压力之下，伊朗目前趋向于和平收官，短期也是给市场 紧张的避险氛围一些降温，只是关税的发展态势不确定性较高，加上加沙目前依旧炮火不断，避险的实质状态依旧存 在，黄金上个交易日早盘在反抽5205附近之后没能有延续，在欧 ...

美联储理事米兰表示，他不认为美国目前存在通胀问题，今年应降息1个百分点，分四次每次降息25个 基点，且宜早不宜迟。 中金财富期货分析指出，伊朗与美国在瑞士日内瓦举行的两国第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗方面称取得进 展，谈判的斡旋方阿曼称取得重大进展。而美伊谈判一波三折，黄金走势仍较为波动，预计短期内仍以 震荡为主。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在与美国于日内瓦进行的第三轮间接核谈判结束后表 示，这是迄今为止"最严肃、持续时间最长"的一次谈判，"取得了良好进展"，在某些领域，双方已"接 近达成共识"。 2月26日，金价冲高回落，COMEX黄金期货价格一度跌至5144美元，尾盘受美联储官员鸽派言论影响 小幅拉升。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)跌0.36%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌1.64%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌0.74%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

钛媒体App 2月27日消息，美联储古尔斯比表示，利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就提前大幅降 息；如果通胀回落，利率今年可以降更多；就业市场稳定，经济一直稳健。（广角观察） ...

民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦正就唐纳德·特朗普总统在国情咨文演讲中声称要"终结"负担能力危机一事 戳穿其虚张声势，这为可能决定11月中期选举结果的斗争开辟了新战线。 马萨诸塞州民主党参议员沃伦在致特朗普的信中写道："你的说法与美国普通家庭的日常经历完全不 符，他们正 struggling with 食品、住房、医疗保健、育儿和电力等必需品成本上涨的问题。" 参议院银行委员会资深民主党人沃伦写道："尽管你声称如此，但你并没有'解决'负担能力问题，也没 有'战胜'通胀。相反，在过去一年里，美国家庭面临的价格飞涨。" 沃伦的这封信是在2026年中期选举前对特朗普和国会共和党人发起正面攻击的起点，而这次选举的结果 可能取决于负担能力问题。随着选民对高昂生活成本表示担忧，特朗普在经济方面的支持率已大幅下 降，这与他在国情咨文中描述的"蓬勃发展"的经济形成鲜明对比。 如今，民主党人希望抓住这个机会，利用负担能力问题将共和党人赶出国会权力机构。沃伦明确表示， 这封信只是她就负担能力问题抨击总统的首次尝试，而民主党人正抓紧在11月大选前奔走全国各地，宣 传他们的经济主张。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1146.480 | -4.6↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22572 | -457.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151,642.00 | -3433.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 8,949.00 | -791.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 169,407.00 | -29130.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 357,610.00 | -55549.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 346,369 | -9461↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1144.51 | -1.13↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 21,797.00 | 157.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -1.97 | 3.45↑ 沪银主力合约基差(日 ...

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德重申，欧洲央行已成功遏制通胀，但同时警告称，政策制定者必须密 切关注公众对通胀的偏高感受。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德重申，欧洲央行已成功遏制通胀，但同时警告称，政策制定者必须密 切关注公众对通胀的偏高感受。 拉加德周四在布鲁塞尔出席与欧洲议员的例行听证会时表示，预计将在中期实现2%的通胀目标。 "我们为降低通胀所作的努力是有效的，"拉加德说。"不过，尽管通胀已经回落，调查显示许多民众仍 感受到，价格上涨速度高于官方数据所反映的水平。" 拉加德周四在布鲁塞尔出席与欧洲议员的例行听证会时表示，预计将在中期实现2%的通胀目标。 "我们为降低通胀所作的努力是有效的，"拉加德说。"不过，尽管通胀已经回落，调查显示许多民众仍 感受到，价格上涨速度高于官方数据所反映的水平。" 尽管政策制定者强调下一步利率行动将"保留所有选项"，但他们短期内似乎无意调整利率。官员们预 计，中期通胀将稳定在2%的目标水平，经济增长将回升。不过，也有人担忧通胀可能在更长时间里低 于目标，其中欧元走强以及中国低价进口被视为主要风险。 根据最新的消费者预期调查，公众所感知的通胀高于实际通胀数据。这可能抑制居民消费 ...

·花旗：新兴市场有望成为今年最受青睐的交易市场 【机构分析】 ·花旗集团分析师表示，全球前几大资产管理公司（合计管理着超过20万亿美元的资产）正在买入新兴 市场的股票、本币债券和信贷产品，押注全球经济增长和美元走软将有利于这些市场。尽管本周全球市 场因担忧人工智能可能颠覆经济的诸多领域而震荡，但新兴市场资产依然表现良好。MSCI新兴市场指 数周四一度上涨0.7%。相关主题ETF的交易量也大幅飙升。这一转变也反映出发达市场前景更加不明 朗。由于政策不确定性和财政担忧令市场情绪承压，美国、日本和德国国债收益率飙升。 ·澳新银行在最新报告中强化了对黄金的看涨立场。该行指出：1. 美联储预计将于第二季度（可能6月） 重启降息，并于第四季度再次降息，这一路径将为黄金提供支撑。2. 美伊紧张局势再度升级，将重振黄 金的避险需求。3. 经济风险持续存在，市场尚未完全消化美国关税上调的影响；而对AI驱动股市上涨 的担忧，正加剧金融风险。4. 在不确定性背景下，黄金仍是抵御市场风险的极具吸引力的对冲工具。5. 经历最新一轮获利了结后，投资者持仓已不再拥挤，为建立新的多头头寸留下了充足空间。 ·澳新银行：黄金前景依然乐观目前仍有 ...