Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive trends in China's financial data for May, indicating a stable growth in money supply and social financing, primarily driven by government bond financing [1][2][4] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, which, while slightly lower than April, is significantly higher than the first quarter and the same period last year [1] - The total social financing scale grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, surpassing last year's figures by 3.83 trillion yuan, mainly due to a net increase in government bond financing [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated this year, particularly for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing local government hidden debts, which has positively impacted the stability of social financing [2] - In the first five months, local government special bonds issued totaled 1.63 trillion yuan, with May seeing the highest monthly issuance of 443.2 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 80% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan for debt replacement, indicating active fiscal policy efforts to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [2] Group 3 - New RMB loans totaled 10.68 trillion yuan in the first five months, although this is 460 billion yuan lower than the same period last year, the growth remains reasonable [3] - The efficiency of loan usage has improved, with the GDP generated per yuan of loan increasing from 3.22 yuan to 3.26 yuan year-on-year [3] - The structure of loans shows a high growth rate in inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, while short-term loans have increased significantly, particularly for enterprises [3] Group 4 - The financing structure is optimizing, with the proportion of loans in the total social financing scale decreasing to 62%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while bond financing's share increased to 28.2%, up 1.7 percentage points [4] - The changes in the scale and proportion of loans and bonds reflect the overall changes in social financing and the support for the real economy, indicating a reduction in financing costs due to lower bond financing rates compared to loans [4] Group 5 - A series of new financial policies have been introduced to support the economy, including interest rate cuts and increased lending for agriculture and small businesses [5] - The People's Bank of China has injected liquidity of 1.1196 trillion yuan through various tools in May, aiming to enhance market expectations and transparency [5] Group 6 - Future financial data is expected to maintain a positive trend, with low interest rates helping to reduce overall financing costs and encouraging both loan and bond financing [6] - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and ongoing domestic policies are anticipated to further support financing demand, particularly in June, which is typically a month of high financing needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the improvement in financial conditions in May, with social financing increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, while credit growth remains weak due to demand-side factors [1][7][13]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In May, social financing increased by 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, slightly above the market average expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7]. Credit Analysis - The increase in real credit was 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a weaker demand side [8]. - The BCI index showed an improvement in the financing environment for enterprises, suggesting that supply conditions may not be weak [8][9]. Corporate Loans - Long-term loans for enterprises increased by 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [9]. - Short-term loans increased by 230 billion yuan year-on-year, while bill financing decreased by 282.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to higher yields [9]. Bond Financing - Corporate bonds increased by 149.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, likely due to lower deposit rates and increased credit bond financing [10][11]. - Government bonds increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan, reflecting accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans increased by 13.5 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth since March 2024, attributed to a weaker dollar and improved exchange rate expectations [11]. M1 Growth - M1 growth was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in economic conditions [12]. - However, M1 performance remains weak, with a decrease of 230.7 billion yuan in May compared to previous years, influenced by debt replacement and shifts in deposit preferences [12]. Overall Financial Conditions - The article concludes that while supply-side conditions have improved, demand-side expectations remain uncertain, with ongoing impacts from debt replacement affecting financial data [13].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth, all surpassing nominal GDP growth, suggesting a stable support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the increment in social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main driver for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and new local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, marking a record high for the year [3]. Loan Growth and Structure - The RMB loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.75 trillion yuan, up by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with many enterprises finding loans more attractive [8]. Market Confidence and Economic Activity - The increase in "liquid money" (M1) growth reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures in boosting market confidence and indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The overall financial volume is expected to maintain stability, supported by resilient economic development and proactive fiscal policies [11]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which are gradually taking effect [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 （CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较3月份的2.4%略有下降，是2021年2月份以来最低水平。4月 份CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于预期的0.3%水平。 01 重要事件回顾 (5.5-5.11) 1、2025年5月12日中国和美国日内瓦经贸会谈发布联合声明，双方承诺将于2025年5月 14日前采取以下举措： 美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别 行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂 停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据 2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征 关税。 中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税，其 中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税， 并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措 施，暂 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the impact of monetary policy changes and economic indicators on market sentiment and investment activity. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 15, the A-share market closed at 3380.82 points, down 0.68%, with over 3800 stocks declining [1] - Despite positive news such as interest rate cuts and a pause in the US-China trade war, the market's upward momentum has been weak, leading to a sense of volatility [1] Group 2: Monetary Data Analysis - As of the end of April, M2 increased by 8% year-on-year, a significant rise of 1 percentage point from the previous month, while M1 grew by 1.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The M1-M2 spread widened to 6.5 percentage points, up from 5.4 percentage points in March, indicating a potential decrease in economic activity [1][3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The slowdown in M1 growth is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and a significant reduction in short-term loans, reflecting weakened consumer and business confidence [2][4] - The PMI for manufacturing fell to 49.0%, indicating contraction, with the export new orders index dropping to 44.7%, the lowest level in 2023 [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a continued decline in exports to the US due to high tariffs, leading to sustained external demand weakness and a push for domestic demand policies [5] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and increased liquidity measures in the second half of the year [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [25]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that in April 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that credit growth will remain stable throughout 2025, with an estimated annual credit increment of around 18.1 trillion yuan, leading to a credit growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government bonds as a primary support for social financing, with government bond issuance in April reaching about 972.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan [4][10]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In April, new credit was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of credit in this period and the impact of debt replacement [4]. - Corporate loans saw a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting weak demand in the corporate sector [4][15]. - Retail credit demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease of 521.6 billion yuan in household loans, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in the housing market [4][18]. Monetary Supply - M1 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, showing a rebound in growth rates [8][4]. - The report notes that the decline in deposits was significant, with a net decrease of 440 billion yuan in April, reflecting a shift in risk preferences among investors [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are attractive in both counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical contexts, with high dividend yields becoming increasingly appealing [4]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Agricultural Bank of China (A+H), Chongqing Bank, and Suzhou Bank, among others, due to their solid provisioning and growth potential under favorable policies [4].

"4月末M2增速较快上扬，背后是上年同期基数大幅走低，以及当月社融增速加快，拉动存款派生。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青表示，当前M2增速明显高于名义GDP增速，显示金融对实体经济具有较强支持性。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，后续随着低基数效应的递减，未来M2同比增速会恢复到今年前几个月的正常 增长水平。 另外，狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%，较上月末小幅回落0.1个百分点。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月作为传统的信贷"小月"，信贷投放稳定性和可持续性有所增强。 5月14日，在央行公布的金融数据中，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，同比少增4500亿元；4月新增社会融资规模为 11585亿元，同比多增12243亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.0%；狭义货币（M1）同比增长1.5%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.14万亿元， 同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 在多位受访人士看来，受季节性效应、关税冲击以及债务置换等多因素影响下，4月新增信贷有所回落，但政府债 发行等支撑下，社融增速呈稳步走高态势，今年以来金融对 ...