Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, with many previously surging varieties hitting the daily limit down. Alumina dropped 6.27% intraday, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy continued minor adjustments. Aluminium prices are under significant resistance at the previous high, and shorting at appropriate positions is recommended [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, SHFE Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.65% at 20,615. The total index position decreased by 26,792 to 627,084 lots. The 08 - 09 spread was 30, and the AD - AL negative spread was -510 [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine license suspensions is expected to be felt in August, and ore prices are expected to stop falling and recover [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" logic, alumina futures prices rose rapidly, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window and supporting the spot price. However, the operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, and the oversupply situation persists. After the short - term sentiment fades, it enters a correction phase [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum follows SHFE Aluminum in range - bound fluctuations, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, it is still the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, demand is weak, and the开工 rate in the aluminum processing sector remains low [8]. 2. Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Primary Aluminum Exports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Primary Aluminum Net Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high [10]. - **Bauxite Mine Rights**: On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mine rights with no actual mining activities [10]. - **Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April. On July 14, the restart work resumed [10][11].

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) trends, particularly the launch of the Yajiang Hydropower project, which is expected to drive clean energy initiatives [3][8] - The report discusses the "anti-involution" market trend, indicating a significant reduction in stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2 times, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [11][12] Industry and Company - The social services sector is expected to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming full island closure operation, which will enhance international attractiveness and stimulate related industries such as hotels and logistics [15][16] - The media and internet sector is witnessing a recovery in summer box office performance, with the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcasing significant participation and innovation [19][20] - The automotive industry is advancing in smart vehicle technology, with new operational licenses for autonomous vehicles being issued in Shanghai, indicating accelerated commercialization of Robotaxi services [22][23] - The chemical industry is undergoing a "rectification" initiative aimed at addressing illegal production and competition issues, which may lead to improved profitability for compliant companies [26][27] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline in the proportion of over-allocated positions in the liquor segment, reflecting weaker expectations for fundamentals [29][30] - The public utilities and environmental protection sector is seeing advancements in nuclear energy with the completion of the preliminary design for China's first fourth-generation commercial fast reactor, which is a significant step in nuclear development [33][34] - The home appliance industry is facing a decline in air conditioner production as it enters the off-season, but government subsidies are expected to support demand recovery [36][38]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. In the short term, the market is dominated by macro - logic. Although each link in the industrial chain has slightly recovered, the overall oversupply pattern is still significant. With high - priced varieties entering adjustment, nickel prices will follow suit. The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel closed down 1.5% at 121,620, and the total index positions decreased by 3,066 to 178,290 lots. After the macro - sentiment cooled down, the price fell and adjusted again [7] - The rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, and the subsequent shipping volume is expected to remain at a high level, with sufficient supply and room for the ore price to fall. In Indonesia, as the subsequent RKAB supplementary quotas are gradually approved, the nickel ore supply is also expected to become loose [7] - The cost of nickel - iron plants remains high. Although the ore price is expected to decline, the current decline is limited and still at a high level. Some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving up the nickel - iron price, but the acceptance of high - priced nickel ore is still low [7] - The performance of stainless steel is still weak. It is in the traditional consumption off - season and the inventory is high, so it is difficult to effectively support the raw material end [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continues to rise. The price is expected to continue to rise slightly due to the rigid restocking demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants [7] 2. Industry News - In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of the quota was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the international reputation of the Indonesian nickel industry [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10][11]

镍与不锈钢日评20250729:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | | 资讯 | 1.工信部:巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效,加强光伏等重点行业治理。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 望 | 7月28日,沪续主力合约成荡下行,成交量为297904手(+132194),持仓量为96124手(-2883),伦袋市场成交 较弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到迷量均加,港口库存去库:煤铁厂亏损幅皮收窄,6月国内排产 减少,印尼排产减少,镍铁去库;7月国内电解腺糖产城少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤产增加:不锈钢厂排产下降; | | | | 合金与电俄需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LNE增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但宏 | | | | 观氛围主导,情绪变化较大,预计媒份高位震荡。操作上,建议短线连高布空,等持"反内发"情绪消退。（观点评分:-1） | | 投资集略 | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | | 7月28日,不锈钢主力合约废荡下行,成交量为349991手(+149518),持仓量为112413手(- ...

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 宏观资讯 2025 年 7 月 29 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/7/29 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 锌 | 原油 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 橡胶 | 二债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 鸡蛋 | 氧化铝 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 甲醇 | 铝 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 短纤 | 沥青 | | | | | 焦煤 | PTA | 五债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 生猪 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-29 消费趋弱，有色震荡承压 有⾊观点：消费趋弱，有⾊震荡承压 交易逻辑：美欧达成15%关税协议，但美国对等关税博弈仍在继续； 7月18日工信部提到十大行业稳增长，将推动重点行业着力调结构和 淘汰落后产能，整体来看，反内卷延伸到基本金属，供给收缩预期一 度提振有色，但美国关税预期反复对有色有压制。供需面来看，基本 金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看， 关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，但政策刺激预期及供应扰动 对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会， 逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月 底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会面临短时抛压，中长期来看， 基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期 过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪降温，锌价震荡偏弱。 ...

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector is experiencing a favorable supply and demand dynamic, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing market conditions. The outlook remains optimistic due to dual catalysts: improving fundamentals and new industry layouts leading to valuation increases [1][22] - Over half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, entering redemption periods amid an upward cycle, prompting more proactive debt conversion measures [1][22] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][22] Currency Exchange - The RMB's central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate potentially challenging the 7.15 range against the USD. The expected range for August is between 7.10 and 7.15 [1][24] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a strong domestic stock market, despite a weaker immediate exchange rate [1][24] Industry Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction, and long-term price recovery, particularly in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][25] - The PPI is expected to recover to around 1.9% by September next year, following a 10-month period of negative growth after the last supply-side reform [2][26] - The current approach to capacity reduction is shifting towards policy-guided methods rather than direct shutdowns, reflecting the need for a balanced economic impact [2][26] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have not yet experienced significant price increases, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, which may see short-term demand improvements [5] - The technology sector, particularly robotics, is highlighted as having potential catalysts for growth, despite previous underperformance [5] Company Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by its diverse product lines [11] - Minshida's revenue is expected to grow by 27.91% year-on-year, with a focus on high-value products in the growing fields of new energy vehicles and renewable energy [12] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is anticipated to turn profitable, benefiting from supply-side changes and price increases in the photovoltaic sector [13][14]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and the concept of "anti-involution" [1][2][4][5][6][19][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Involution**: The discussion centers around the ongoing supply-side reforms in China, particularly the government's initiative to combat "involution" and promote structural adjustments in various industries [1][5][19][21] 2. **Market Sentiment and Liquidity**: Recent discussions with private and public investors indicate a warming sentiment in the stock market, with some investors perceiving signs of a bull market, although the fundamental economic situation remains challenging [4][6][19] 3. **Policy Expectations**: The expectation for the second half of the year is that policies will focus on structural adjustments and gradual support, with a recognition that initial measures may only address surface issues rather than deeper structural problems [5][21] 4. **Economic Data Trends**: There is an anticipation of economic activity peaking in the first half of the year, followed by a potential decline in the latter half, influenced by previous policy measures and external factors [5][21] 5. **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to continue without significant breakthroughs, with tariffs likely remaining at current levels for an extended period [12][13][15][18] 6. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with expectations for policies to support it, but challenges remain due to mismatches in supply and demand across different cities [25][26] 7. **Social Security and Welfare Reforms**: There are indications of gradual reforms in the social security system, including potential nationwide birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social welfare [27][28][29] 8. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The discussion highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in certain sectors, but overall demand remains weak, complicating the path to sustainable economic growth [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current reform efforts are compared to previous supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2018, with an emphasis on the need for a more profound structural change rather than just addressing superficial issues [22][24][31] 2. **Market Reactions**: There is a caution against overly optimistic market expectations, particularly regarding the speed and effectiveness of policy implementations [45][56] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The call suggests that while the immediate outlook may be cautious, there are potential long-term investment opportunities arising from structural changes in various industries, particularly those that have previously undergone supply-side reforms [40][44][55]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **internet platform industry**, particularly **food delivery services** such as Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba, as well as the **rare earth industry** and the **financial sector**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Internet Platforms and Price Undercutting** Internet platforms engage in price undercutting through subsidies to gain market share, which raises concerns about monopolistic practices and impacts on upstream suppliers. Regulatory bodies need to intervene to address these issues [1][2][4] 2. **Government Regulation and Pricing Mechanisms** The government is revising pricing laws to clarify improper pricing behaviors and establish standards for price undercutting. This includes shifting from direct price regulation to a cost-plus pricing model to protect public goods and prevent irrational subsidies [1][4][3] 3. **Rare Earth Industry Dynamics** The rare earth sector benefits from China's supply advantages, with a significant increase in prices (approximately 30% year-on-year). The government is cracking down on illegal rare earth mining and controlling legal supply, which enhances the market share of companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [1][6] 4. **Impact of Subsidies on Food Delivery Services** While subsidies increase traffic for food delivery platforms, they also pressure merchants and reduce profits. Regulatory bodies have urged platforms to improve quality assurance for riders, merchants, and food products [1][7] 5. **JD.com's Competitive Strategy** JD.com is expected to emerge from the competitive turmoil in the food delivery market by implementing a standardized cooking model through its Seven Fresh Kitchen initiative, which aims to enhance food quality and safety while reducing costs [1][9] 6. **Healthcare Procurement Strategy Changes** The National Healthcare Security Administration has adjusted its procurement strategy to focus on quality rather than low prices, addressing issues like drug efficacy and stability. This includes providing price protection for innovative drugs to encourage development [1][10] 7. **Challenges in the Financial Sector** The financial industry faces intense competition, with banks and insurance companies employing aggressive strategies to capture market share. Industry associations are working on standards to mitigate these competitive pressures [1][11] 8. **Environmental Regulations in the Construction Industry** New environmental guidelines are being implemented for non-metallic mineral manufacturing, aiming to phase out illegal operations and address overcapacity. However, local government protectionism poses challenges to these efforts [1][12] 9. **International Trade Negotiations** Recent progress in US-China tariff negotiations may lead to relaxed export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, which could impact market dynamics in various sectors, including technology and finance [1][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the need for a shift in local government strategies to avoid redundant construction and overcapacity issues, emphasizing the importance of adjusting the objectives of local governments to prevent short-term solutions to long-term problems [1][5] - The ongoing competition among food delivery platforms is expected to lead to a transformation in consumer benefits as companies adapt to new market conditions [1][9]