全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，8月5日黄金etf持有量为955.94吨，较上一交易日增加 1.14吨。周二(8月5日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3380.44美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%，日内最高上探至3390.29美 元/盎司，最低触3349.56美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 美国供应管理协会公布了美国7月ISM非制造业PMI，结果从6月的50.8降至50.1，低于预期的51.5，逼近 荣枯线临界点，创2020年疫情以来第三低读数。价格支付指数飙升至2022年末以来最高的69.9，就业指 数跌至疫情以来第三低的46.4。PMI作为各国经济活力的先行指标，能显著影响各国资产价格的估值中 枢。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI意外萎缩，关税政策成服务业放缓主因。 特朗普关税政策的"双刃剑"效应已从贸易领域蔓延至占美国经济三分之二的服务业。 尽管短期数据呈现"逆差收窄+GDP增长"的表象，但企业成本激增、就业市场恶化、供应链扭曲等深层 矛盾正在侵蚀经济根基。若关税政策持续，美国经济可能陷入"高通胀、低增长"的长期困局。 ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are showing positive movement across major indexes, with the Dow and S&P 500 up slightly, while the Nasdaq is up by 70 points [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 is also in the green, up by 0.40% after a strong performance the previous day [1] Earnings Reports - BP reported its first positive earnings surprise in three quarters, with earnings of $0.90 per share, exceeding the consensus of $0.68 by 32.35% [3] - Marathon Petroleum posted earnings of $3.96 per share, beating the consensus of $3.22 by 23%, with revenues of $34.1 billion, a surprise of 10.3% [4] - Pfizer continued its streak of positive earnings surprises for 13 consecutive quarters, reporting earnings of $0.78 per share, surpassing expectations by 34.48% [5] - Great Lakes Dredge & Dock saw an earnings surprise of 75%, reporting $0.14 per share against a consensus of $0.08, with shares up 8.7% [5] - Caterpillar missed earnings expectations, reporting $4.72 per share, below the anticipated $4.88, although revenues of $16.57 billion beat estimates by 1.32% [6] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$60.18 billion in June, significantly better than the projected -$61.0 billion and down from -$75.5 billion the previous month [7] Economic Indicators - The final PMI on S&P and ISM Services for July is expected to be released, with previous S&P print at 52.9 and ISM at 50.8, now anticipated to increase to 51.1 [8] Upcoming Earnings - The week is busy for Q2 earnings reports, with notable tech firms like Advanced Micro Devices, Arista Networks, and Skyworks Solutions set to report, along with Amgen, Snap, Match Group, and Trivago [9]

But first, breaking economic data just crossing the tape. Rick Santelli has that for us. Hi Rick. Hi Lesie.Indeed, we had S&P Global final reads for July. Now we're having ISM service sector PMIs. These are fresh first time look at July.Expecting 51 a halfish on the headline comes in light 50.1% sequentially lower and light expectations. the weakest since well just a couple months ago, May of this year. If you look at prices paid, it's going in the wrong direction.69.9% following 67.5%, well above expectati ...

Key Takeaways from July PMI Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing the **July PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)** data which indicates a softening growth trend in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The July manufacturing PMI registered at **49.3**, below expectations (Consensus: **49.7**; June: **49.7**), indicating broad-based weakness primarily due to weaker demand and modest production cuts linked to anti-involution measures [5][8]. 2. **New Orders and Export Orders**: New orders decreased by **0.8 percentage points** to **49.4**, while new export orders fell by **0.6 percentage points** to **47.1**, reflecting a decline in demand [2][6]. 3. **Production and Employment**: Production softened to **50.5** (down **0.5 percentage points**), and employment remained weak at **48.0**, indicating challenges in labor demand [2][6]. 4. **Non-Manufacturing PMI**: The non-manufacturing PMI also declined to **50.1**, with construction activities particularly affected, dropping **2.2 percentage points** due to adverse weather conditions [2][8]. 5. **Price Indices**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to improve slightly to **-0.2%** month-on-month in July (from **-0.4%** in June), with a year-on-year change edging up to **-3.5%** [3][8]. 6. **GDP Growth Outlook**: Real GDP growth is projected to slip to **4.5%** in Q3 (compared to **5.2%** in Q2), influenced by factors such as export front-loading and limited new stimulus measures [4][8]. Additional Important Points - **Consumer Sentiment**: The service PMI remained subdued at **50**, reflecting sluggish consumer sentiment, which may impact future demand [2][8]. - **Upstream Pricing**: There is a modest sequential rise in input prices (up **3.1 percentage points** to **51.5**), but output prices showed a milder contraction (up **2.1 percentage points** to **48.3**), indicating limited passthrough amid soft final demand [3][8]. - **Weather Impact**: Adverse weather conditions have notably affected construction activities, contributing to the decline in non-manufacturing PMI [2][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the July PMI conference call, highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, along with the implications for economic growth and consumer sentiment.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, specifically analyzing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2023. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July from 49.7 in June, which is below market expectations. The new orders sub-index saw the most significant decrease, dropping to 49.4 from 50.2, indicating a contraction in demand [1][3][10]. 2. **Non-Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1 in July from 50.5 in June, slightly below market expectations. This decline was primarily driven by a slowdown in the construction sector, which fell notably to 50.6 from 52.8 [1][9][10]. 3. **Adverse Weather Impact**: The weakness in the July PMIs is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall, which affected construction activity [1][10]. 4. **Trade-Related Sub-Indexes**: The manufacturing new export order sub-index decreased to 47.1 in July from 47.7 in June, indicating a decline in export demand. The import sub-index remained flat at 47.8 [4][8]. 5. **Price Dynamics**: The input cost sub-index increased to 51.5 from 48.4, while the output prices sub-index rose to 48.3 from 46.2, suggesting that deflationary pressures have eased somewhat due to recent increases in commodity prices [8][10]. 6. **Sector-Specific Performance**: Certain sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and electronics showed output and new orders sub-indexes above 50, while sectors like chemical raw materials and cement remained below 50, indicating contraction [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Employment Sub-Index**: The employment sub-index inched up to 48.0 from 47.9, suggesting a slight improvement in employment conditions despite overall PMI declines [3]. - **Enterprise Size Impact**: The PMI for large enterprises fell to 50.3 from 51.2, while small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4 from 47.3. Medium enterprises, however, experienced a rise to 49.5 from 48.6 [8]. - **Government Policy Influence**: The government's focus on addressing overcapacity and excessive price competition is impacting the manufacturing sector, as indicated by the contrasting trends in output and price sub-indexes [1][10]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, highlighting the challenges posed by weather conditions and government policies.

Economic Indicators - China's July Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI reached 52.6, exceeding expectations of 50.4 [1] - The Composite PMI registered 50.8 [1] - China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below the anticipated 50.4 [2] Service Sector Performance - Service sector new business volume experienced a notable increase, marking a one-year high [1] - The improvement was attributed to enhanced basic demand and successful business expansion [1] - Foreign demand rebounded for the first time in three months, driven by increased tourism and stable trade conditions, leading to the highest export order growth since February [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - China's manufacturing output experienced its second decline since October 2023 [3] - Surveyed companies attributed the production decrease to a slowdown in new order growth [3] - Manufacturers reported weak foreign demand, with new export orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and at an accelerated pace compared to June [3] Cost Pressure - Average input costs continued to rise in July due to increased raw material, fuel, and payroll expenses [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国香港7月标普全球制造业PMI为49.2，前值47.8。 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 2012 31 2025-08-04 F3014717 Z0013223 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品大幅走弱，其中，工业品、农产品同步下跌。主要原因一是美国如期在8月1日征收关税，二是美联储按兵不动，基调偏鹰，压制市场的风险偏 | | | 好；三是，国内政策预期明显降温，一方面增量政策预期落空，另一方面反内卷政策低于预期。 1）当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 | | | 2）美国联邦公开市场委员会以9票赞成，2票反对，连续第五次会议维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变。此前金融市场普遍预期央行将在9月降息，但鲍威尔认为经 济未来面临的部分风险有所上升，并对此表示"下结论为时尚早"，被解读为鹰派表态。3）美国二季度实际GDP环比大幅回升同比持平于2.0%，其中居民消费、 | | | 非住宅投资增长势头较为强劲，净出口逆差收窄，呈现出超预期的总体韧性。4）7月非农数据显示美国劳动力市场正 ...

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,507 points, down 265 points or 1.1%[1] - Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,559 points, down 13 points or 0.37%[2] - S&P 500 Index fell by 101 points or 1.6%, closing at 6,238 points[3] Economic Indicators - PBOC conducted a 126 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[2] - China's July manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, below expectations[2] - U.S. July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below expectations[3] Sector Performance - A-share indices showed mixed performance with military and brokerage stocks declining, while traditional Chinese medicine and photovoltaic sectors rose[2] - BYD reported July production of 317,892 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%[5] - Xinyi Glass reported a 9.7% decline in revenue to 9.821 billion RMB for the six months ending June[5] OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, totaling approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand[4]