摩根士丹利发表研报指，海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9 亿美元)，按年增16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。大摩 又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运业的 持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带来风 险。大摩予海丰国际目标价26.4港元，评级"与大市同步"。 ...

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，美国政府在1月 底前发生新一轮停摆的概率走高，进一步影响市场对美国政经稳定的信心；有消息指出美国被曝向以色 列通报对伊朗行动准备进展，美军队在伊朗周边的布局令市场感到地缘政治或再起波澜；周四凌晨将公 布美联储新一轮利率决策，按兵不动概率较大。库存方面，LME库存增加1825吨至172350吨；Comex库 存增加2921吨至516070吨；SHFE铜仓单下降406吨144908吨，BC铜下降25吨至11141吨。近期地缘政治 搅局下，影响市场对全球经济稳定性的信心，另外高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年， 这加大了产业内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但无从资金对有色追捧力度来看，仍维系着铜价 易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价，更多的需从金融属性的角度去看， 整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜LME镍跌1.91%报18235 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场宽幅震荡，Wind全A上涨0.14%，成交额2.92万亿元。中证1000指数上涨0.2%，中证500 指数上涨0.5%，沪深300指数下跌0.03%，上证50指数上涨0.09%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策， 对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强 政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在 谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货 币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期来 看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global central banks and sovereign wealth funds are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold due to pressures from the debt cycle, geopolitical tensions, and policy credibility [2] - The debt cycle indicates that high debt levels will squeeze spending, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as market sell-offs and increased supply require higher real returns from holders [2] - Gold is emphasized as a "hard currency" and the second-largest reserve currency, with its price increase reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets by central banks and sovereign funds [2] Group 2 - Recent gold market movements have shown a strong upward trend, with significant price fluctuations indicating a "breakout" pattern, where breaking key levels leads to accelerated price movements [3] - The current market is characterized by an extreme trend-following behavior, where traders can confidently follow price movements with minimal stop-loss settings [3] - Key technical levels for gold prices include support at approximately 5160 and 5126, with resistance around 5236, indicating potential future price targets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overnight surge in London spot gold prices reached a new historical high, driven by uncertainties in U.S. policy and a weakening dollar, while geopolitical tensions continue to support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5]. Market Dynamics - London spot gold prices increased significantly, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.82% and SHFE gold declining by 0.28% [5]. - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below the 96 mark to a four-year low, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, which bolstered gold prices [5]. - The likelihood of a government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January has increased, further undermining confidence in U.S. economic stability [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. is set to conduct military exercises in the Middle East, with reports indicating communication with Israel regarding actions against Iran, raising concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Despite expectations of limited impact from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and ongoing issues related to Greenland, are expected to keep gold's appeal strong in the short term [5].

2026 年 1 月 28 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，谨防地缘炒作反复 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,717.5 | -0.47% | 984 | 3,495 | -730 | 0.28 | | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,193.9 | -0.11% | 25,043 | 38,647 | -3,043 | 0.65 | | 1.04 | | | EC2606 | 1,442.2 | -0.24% | 2,566 | 7,912 | 588 | 0.32 | | 0.61 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East situation remains uncertain, and the chemical industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, continuing to fluctuate. Crude oil is still affected by geopolitics, and the relationship between the US and Iran is a focus of the crude oil market. The increase in US natural gas and middle - distillates due to the cold wave has temporarily stopped, and coal prices are likely to be dragged down by weakening demand [1]. - The chemical industry showed high volatility on Tuesday. Styrene and polyolefins generally remained strong, while polyester chain varieties declined significantly. The current inventory build - up in the chemical industry chain is a seasonal one, and investors should view the chemical industry with a fluctuating mindset [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm [1][5]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about the Iranian situation, the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield, and the US cold wave have pushed up supply concerns. Although the API data showed a decrease in US crude and gasoline inventories last week, the high inventory of US petroleum products indicated by EIA data is still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The current crude oil market supply is still in surplus, and the short - term rhythm is dominated by the Iranian situation [5]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia may potentially disrupt supply expectations frequently, and the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield also provides short - term support [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate following crude oil [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the US is cooperating with Venezuela to increase its oil production, which will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply and a significant negative impact on asphalt. The repeated US - Iran situation provides cost - side support for asphalt futures prices. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in the over - valued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Part of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The US welcomes Iran to negotiate, causing part of the fuel - oil geopolitical premium to decline. In the long - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle - East are negative factors [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in natural gas may support low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - **Main Logic**: The significant increase in US natural gas prices drives the crack spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel - oil power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation makes it follow crude - oil fluctuations [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and PX has reduced positions and declined [13]. - **Main Logic**: The weak trend of international oil prices and the obvious cooling of the chemical - product sector have led to a significant reduction in PX positions and a decline in price. The weak real - world situation makes it difficult to support high prices, and upstream raw materials face short - term correction pressure due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,200 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to remain within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [13]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Suppressed by the weakening of commodities, TA has significantly reduced positions and declined [14]. - **Main Logic**: The cooling of the commodity market sentiment has led to a significant reduction in PTA positions and a decline. There are no significant changes in the supply and demand side, but the downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the seasonal inventory build - up pressure of PTA has increased. The PTA price spread and month - to - month spread are both weak, and the market is worried about the inventory build - up pressure around the Spring Festival. The PTA disk profit has corrected from a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 month - to - month spread, and the short - term PTA processing fee may correct to some extent. The industry can choose to hedge to lock in production profits [15]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The game between expectations and reality is intertwined, and pure benzene fluctuates [16]. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene and the supplementary rise in the context of the long - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Pure benzene is in a transition period where the fundamentals may change, and the real - world pressure is still large. Although the supply - demand gap from January to February is still positive, it is expected to achieve a small inventory reduction in March [17]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory still needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals in the first quarter are improving quarter - on - quarter. It is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical commodities [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by capital behavior and export stories, styrene has risen recently [18]. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise of styrene is due to capital behavior under the expectation of the long - cycle bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of the commodity - market sector. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the inventory - build - up expectation in January has turned into inventory reduction. The seasonal inventory - build - up height in February is also expected to decrease [18]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there is a tendency for profit compression during the seasonal inventory build - up, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Lack of confidence among bulls and no continuous positive factors, ethylene glycol has adjusted and corrected [19]. - **Main Logic**: The poor commodity sentiment has led to a high - level correction in the polyester chain. Bulls in ethylene glycol lack confidence, and the real - world inventory build - up pressure is huge. The supply reduction is slow, and multiple sets of equipment are still in the process of resuming production. Coupled with the accelerating production cuts of downstream polyester factories, the high inventory suppresses the upward price elasticity [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment within the range of [3,800 - 4,050] yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the operation within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for EG05 - 09 [20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Cost support has collapsed, and terminal demand has declined [21]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in the prices of upstream polyester raw materials has led to the collapse of cost support, and the price of short - fiber has followed the cost decline. The terminal has gradually entered the shutdown stage, and the subsequent operating rate of spinning mills will also gradually decline. Without new positive factors, the market may weaken and consolidate in the near future [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the upstream for consolidation, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following costs, and the support for the lower limit of profit has increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term poor performance of raw - material prices and the general commodity sentiment have led to a downward shift in the center of the polyester bottle - chip price. The processing fee has slightly retracted, but the supply of some goods is tight, and the short - term downward space of the polyester bottle - chip market is limited [23]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates following raw materials, and the support for the lower limit of the processing fee has increased [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and methanol fluctuates within a range [25]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, methanol fluctuated weakly. The fundamental situation of oversupply in the inland market remains unchanged, and the inventory of ports has returned to the accumulation trend. The coastal market is affected by high port inventories, and the inventory - reduction pressure has further increased. Although the overseas situation is uncertain, the short - term trading may still be mainly based on the overseas situation [26]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The Iranian situation is still undecided, and there is still uncertainty in overseas equipment disruptions. Although the actual support is limited in the fundamentals after excluding overseas factors, the short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on the progress of the overseas situation, and the disk may still have upward space, generally showing a range - bound fluctuation [26]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Orders are accumulating before the Spring Festival, and urea fluctuates and consolidates [27]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, the supply was sufficient as the daily output increased. The demand side showed that agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand was appropriate as the Spring Festival approached, while industrial demand was mainly cautious and small - scale. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, and the spot market had new orders, with the overall urea market still in consolidation and a slightly stronger tendency [27][30]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Currently, it is the stage of order accumulation for urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. The price is not suitable for significant increases for order collection, while there is emotional and demand support at the lower price level. The short - term market will fluctuate slightly, waiting for the completion of enterprise orders before there may be a change [27]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Driven by raw - material and macro factors, the upward space of plastics is limited [32]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the plastics main contract fluctuated. The oil price fluctuated, and the US crude - oil production was affected by the cold wave but the impact was short - term. The high inventory of US petroleum products was still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The increase in natural - gas prices driven by the cold wave had limited sustainability. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods were repaired, but the spot - price increase was limited. The demand for plastics was in the off - season, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support in the future [32]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, and the upward space of PP is limited [33]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PP main contract fluctuated. The oil - price situation was similar to that of LLDPE, and the profits of various PP production methods were repaired, limiting the upward space. The PP downstream was in the off - season, and the trading volume had recently decreased. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence was slightly restored, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The short - term maintenance support still existed, and future attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supply is tight, and PL fluctuates [34]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PL main contract fluctuated. The PDH maintenance expectation still provided support. The overall propylene supply was tight, and enterprise inventories were low, with some offers continuing to rise. The downstream buying was active, and the actual - order auction premium still existed, pushing up the transaction center. The short - term powder - material profit fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand in the off - season provided limited support [34]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low valuation, PVC fluctuates [39]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the low - price "export - grabbing" of PVC still exists, and the decline in caustic - soda prices has dragged down the comprehensive profit of PVC's chlor - alkali. The upstream production is normal, the downstream start - up will seasonally weaken, the export volume continued to increase last week, the calcium - carbide supply decreased while demand increased, and the caustic - soda supply and demand were weak, with the PVC dynamic cost rising [39]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. In the short term, the "export - grabbing" and low - valuation of PVC support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the market will fluctuate [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic - soda positions should be closed at low prices [40]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the weak situation of caustic soda continues, the inventory is still accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, the Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, the new alumina production capacity in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will marginally boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum start - up is weakening, the upstream production has little change, and the short - term liquid - chlorine price is stable but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, with the dynamic cost of Shandong caustic soda rising [40]. - **Outlook**: Weak fluctuation. Before the Spring Festival, upstream enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the caustic - soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid - chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, caustic - soda short positions should be closed at low prices [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest basis values, changes, and the quantity of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided for this part in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on January 27, 2026, was 2,499.53, a decrease of 0.14%. The commodity 20 - index was 2,875.98, a decrease of 0.12%, and the industrial - product index was 2,357.14, a decrease of 0.54% [286]. - The energy index on January 27, 2026, was 1,138.61, with a daily decline of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 2.69%, a 1 - month increase of 3.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.79% [288].

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2026-1-28 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铝 【行情资讯】 美元指数下挫，国际金价续创新高，油价上涨，铝价震荡上行，昨日伦铝收盘涨 0.53%至 3212 美元 /吨，沪铝主力合约收至 24350 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 1.5 至 71.7 万手，期货仓单 微降至 14.1 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存环比小幅增加，铝棒库存环比略增，昨日铝棒加工费继续抬 升，成交一般 ...

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