在中东紧张局势冲击下，周五（6月13日）美股三大指数均跌超1%，油价、金价大涨！下面速览昨夜今 晨最新情况。 伊朗导弹回击以色列 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，伊朗对以色列发动三波导弹袭击。 伊斯兰革命卫队称对数 十个目标实施"毁灭性精确打击"。以色列国防军则表示，在过去一个小时监测到两波来自伊朗 的导弹袭击， 导弹总数少于100枚 ，其中绝大多数被拦截或在中途坠落。以色列境内有部分 建筑物被导弹拦截产生的碎片击中。 目前， 以色列新一轮打击已开始，伊朗首都德黑兰防空系统被启动。 以方称数百栋受损，1人死亡5 0人受伤 据央视新闻援引以色列媒体的统计显示，仅在以色列中部城市拉马特甘就有九栋建筑物在伊朗 的导弹袭击中被完全摧毁，另有数百栋建筑在袭击中受损，导致至少50人受伤，1人死亡。 哈梅内伊称将彻底摧毁以政权 据央视新闻报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部 队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，伊朗原子能组织负责人称， 伊朗核计划仍在继续强力推 进。 以色列对伊朗进行新一轮打击 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，以空军已开始新一轮针对伊 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices followed by a correction, highlighting the influence of geopolitical sentiments and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting's potential impact on market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a significant increase before undergoing a correction, indicating volatility in the market [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices, suggesting a safe-haven demand [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Impact - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to provide insights into whether the tone will be more hawkish or dovish, which could influence investor sentiment and gold prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's stance to gauge future trends in gold pricing [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The sudden attack by Israel on Iran has disrupted the market rhythm, with short - term geopolitical logic overriding the medium - term supply - demand logic, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It is believed that a full - scale war between Israel and Iran is unlikely. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, mid - term short - selling opportunities should be sought after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Overall Variety Analysis - For most varieties (crude oil, EB, PX, PTA, PP, plastic, methanol), the medium - term structure is bearish, while the short - term structure is bullish. For EG, rubber, PVC, and BR rubber, both the medium - term and short - term structures are bearish. Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety based on technical analysis [2]. (2) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The Israel - Iran attack makes geopolitical sentiment the short - term dominant factor. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iranian geopolitical situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a daily limit up and then the opening of the board at the end of the session, the short - term support is around 490. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break [5]. (3) Benzene (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increment expectations. The supply of benzene styrene is expected to remain high, while the demand has not improved, so it is bearish in the medium term [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, the hourly - level support is around 7315. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, and the terminal demand is weak, so it is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not broken through the short - term pressure of 14000. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is also affected by tire inventory pressure, so it is bearish in the medium term [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not effectively broken through the short - term pressure of 11470. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a take - profit reference of 11550 [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and the short - term supply - demand has strengthened. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply contraction expectation is strong. The fundamentals are bullish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [20]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate has recovered, and the demand - side polyester profit is weak. The short - term supply - demand has weakened compared with before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to stop - loss and exit short positions [21]. (8) PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale device productions in June, with a strong supply increase expectation. Short - term cost fluctuations driven by crude oil should be noted [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [25]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic device profit is high, the import volume is large, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is great medium - term pressure on the market [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, the short - term support is around 2275. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28]. (10) PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downward cycle, the downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand is weak. The supply - side operating rate is around the average level in the same period of previous years, so the fundamentals are bearish [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a small - scale volume - increasing rebound, it has not broken through the pressure. The short - term pressure is around 4880. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [29]. (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened, the short - term polyester demand is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are supported, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing rebound affected by crude oil, it has broken through the short - term pressure. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [32]. (12) Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance devices recently, but there is large - scale device production pressure in June and the second half of the year, so it is bearish in the medium term [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, it is still affected by sentiment. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a weak performance with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes both declining over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index also faced losses, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1][3] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market experienced declines, with very few stocks rising, leading to a near-complete loss of market profitability [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, nuclear pollution prevention, and military industries were among the top-performing sectors, while beauty care, film and television, IP economy, and diversified finance sectors saw significant declines [3] Investment Strategy - The company advises investors to be cautious and wait for the market to stabilize before making any investments, as the current market is characterized by high volatility and intense competition between bulls and bears [4] - It is recommended to focus on observing high-quality assets rather than frequent trading, which can increase transaction costs and the likelihood of operational errors in an unstable market [6] - Investors should pay close attention to weekend news that may impact market trends, including geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data releases, which could influence market risk appetite [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On June 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.04% to 785.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.88% to 8819 yuan/kg [2]. - In the short - term, due to the warming of Middle - East geopolitics, uncertainties in tariffs and fees, better - than - expected data in the US in June, and the cooling of core PPI in May, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August has increased, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 again, which boosts the rebound of gold prices. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term upward view remains unchanged. For silver, the repair of the gold - silver ratio is basically established, and the silver price is expected to return to the macro + fundamental logic, with a risk of further weakening in the short - term [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the background of the trade war still exists, the US economy still faces downward risks, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With the intensification of great - power games and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthened. The medium - and long - term upward trend has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate more on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On June 12, 2025, London gold spot was 3373.58 dollars/ounce, up 1.1% from June 11; London silver spot was 36.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.9%; COMEX gold was 3393.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%; COMEX silver was 36.38 dollars/ounce, down 1.0%. AU2508 was 785.16 yuan/gram, up 1.0%; AG2508 was 8819 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; AU (T + D) was 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.9%; AG (T + D) was 8798 yuan/kg, down 1.0% [2]. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 10.5% from June 11; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21 yuan/kg, up 50.0%; the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.90 yuan/gram, down 26.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 89.03, up 1.9%; the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 93.30, up 2.1%; AU2512 - 2508 was 3.72 yuan/gram, down 1.1%; AG2512 - 2508 was 34 yuan/kg, down 12.8% [2]. Position Data - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 934.19 tons, down 0.18% from June 10; the silver ETF - SLV was 14729.07854 tons, up 0.27%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 246982 contracts, up 5.51%; the non - commercial short position was 59077 contracts, down 1.38%; the non - commercial net long position was 187905 contracts, up 7.88%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 81981 contracts, up 11.93%; the non - commercial short position was 21211 contracts, up 4.86%; the non - commercial net long position was 60770 contracts, up 14.63% [2]. Inventory Data - On June 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17847.00 kg, up 0.17% from June 11; the SHFE silver inventory was 1226150.00 kg, down 0.30%. On June 11, the COMEX gold inventory was 37929466 troy ounces, with a 0.00% change from June 10; the COMEX silver inventory was 497946180 troy ounces, up 0.56% [2]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On June 12, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, down 0.02% from June 11. On June 11, the US dollar index was 98.65, down 0.41% from June 10; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.94%, down 1.75%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 1.34%; the VIX was 17.26, up 1.83%; the S&P 500 was 6022.24, down 0.27%; the NYMEX crude oil was 68.30 dollars/barrel, up 5.50% [2]. Economic Data - The US May PPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%. The US May core PPI was up 3.0% year - on - year, the lowest since August 2024, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Month - on - month, the May PPI rose only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the core PPI also rose only 0.1%, with commodity prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% and service prices up 0.1% [2]. - The UK April GDP contracted 0.3% month - on - month, the first contraction in six months, worse than the expected 0.1% contraction, and the previous value was a 0.2% increase [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, higher than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 247,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 3 was 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.904 million to 1.902 million [2].

Energy - Morgan Stanley predicts that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and push the US CPI to 5% [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation of oil prices in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with a forecast of $60 for 2026 [2] - Israel is considering military action against Iran in the coming days, with operations targeting dozens of Iranian sites under the code name "Lion's Strength" [2] Precious Metals and Mining - The US plans to invoke the Defense Production Act for rare earth elements [3] - The US announced tariffs on steel appliances, including washing machines and refrigerators, effective from the 23rd [3] Agriculture - Coceral raised the EU and UK soft wheat production forecast for 2025 from 137.2 million tons in March to 143.1 million tons [4] - The USDA's soybean production forecast for the US in the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations [4] - The USDA maintained Argentina's soybean production forecast for 2024/2025 at 49 million tons, slightly below market expectations, and Brazil's forecast at 169 million tons, also unchanged [4] Trade Situation - Japan's trade negotiator rejected partial agreements with the US [5] - The US Commerce Department has established a tariff exemption procedure specifically for automobiles assembled in the US [5] - Trump is set to sign key parts of the US-UK trade agreement in the coming days [5]

金十数据6月13日讯，新加坡华侨银行货币策略师Christopher Wong表示，在地缘政治升级的背景下，美 元携手其它避险资产（瑞郎、日元、黄金）一路上涨，澳元、韩元等风险资产表现疲软。预计地缘政治 的噪音可能会暂时扭曲美元下跌趋势，并在周末前暂时压制风险资产。 华侨银行：地缘政治的噪音料在周末前压制风险资产 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.70%, down 168 points, closing at 23,866 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.08% [1] - International gold prices reached new highs due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, benefiting companies like Zhaojin Mining, which rose over 4%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, which increased by 13% [1] - Shipping stocks rose amid ongoing crises in the Red Sea, with COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation gaining over 11% [1] - United Energy Group surged over 21%, focusing its oil and gas operations in Pakistan, Iraq, and Egypt [1] - Dalipe Holdings saw a mid-session increase of over 14%, as it is a manufacturer of oil-specific pipes with potential in the MENA market [1] - Shandong Molong experienced a significant rise of over 71%, driven by a surge in oil prices exceeding 10% due to safe-haven demand [1] - AVIC Aircraft rose by 4.96%, as geopolitical tensions catalyzed a reevaluation of the military industry, with the company positioned in both military and civilian aviation markets [1] - Beihai Kangcheng-B surged over 36% after receiving approval for the market launch of injectable Vilazodone [1] - Dongfang Electric increased by over 4%, showcasing multiple solar storage achievements at SNEC and signing agreements for further collaboration on solar storage projects [1] Group 2 - Sunny Optical fell by 3.82%, with May smartphone lens shipments declining by 5.2% year-on-year, as institutions predict a slowdown in smartphone sales growth [2] - Innovative drug concept stocks retreated across the board, with biotech companies facing a wave of equity placements, as institutions suggest that the initial phase of valuation recovery is largely complete [2] - Connoisseur-B dropped by 8%, while BGI Genomics fell by 10.7%, and China National Pharmaceutical Group decreased by 5.27% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating monetary policies, with key factors influencing gold prices identified to assist investors in navigating the complex economic landscape [1]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the holding cost of gold, attracting global buyers [3]. - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in this non-yielding asset [3]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as wars and banking crises, drive safe-haven investments into gold [3]. - Economic recession or increased uncertainty prompts investors to prefer gold as a safe asset [3]. - Rising inflation expectations position gold as an effective hedge against inflation, drawing in more funds [3]. - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to unexpected events like pandemics or natural disasters [3]. - Global monetary policy easing, including rate cuts or quantitative easing, releases liquidity that partially flows into the gold market [3]. - The onset of financial crises enhances the appeal of gold's value preservation function [3]. - Strong demand during market consumption peaks from jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors boosts gold prices [3]. - Weak US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, raise concerns about the economy, thereby increasing gold demand [3]. Factors Leading to Gold Price Declines - The appreciation of the US dollar attracts capital inflows, diminishing gold's appeal [4]. - Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase the returns on risk-free assets, leading to decreased demand for gold [4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven buying pressure on gold [5]. - Strong economic recovery raises risk appetite, diverting funds to higher-yielding assets like stocks and real estate [5]. - Declining inflation expectations weaken the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [5]. - Reduced safe-haven sentiment due to diminished impacts from pandemics or disasters leads to a rational market return [5]. - Tightening monetary policies, including rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, withdraw liquidity and pressure gold prices [5]. - Resolution of financial crises leads to capital exiting gold investments [5]. - An oversupply of gold, such as central bank sales or increased mining output, can suppress prices [5]. - Positive US economic indicators strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Gold Market Outlook for 2025 - The international situation remains volatile, with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike pace while inflation data stays concerning, and pressures in the European and American banking systems are not fully resolved, indicating that gold still holds certain investment value [7]. Key Indicators for Gold Investors - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes, including interest rate decisions and FOMC meeting minutes [8]. - Keeping an eye on US employment and inflation data, such as NFP, CPI, and PCE [8]. - Observing significant global geopolitical events, including wars, terrorist attacks, and sudden financial incidents [8]. - Tracking central bank gold purchasing behaviors, particularly from emerging market central banks [8]. - Gold is viewed as a "hard currency" that reflects deep dynamics within the global economic and financial system, with investment strategies suggested for both conservative and aggressive investors [8].

Group 1 - International oil prices and spot gold have surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with crude oil prices rising by 8% and spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce [1] - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both increased by over 8%, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel, the highest since February 3, and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, the highest since April 2 [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with fuel and crude oil futures hitting the limit up, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold's future performance, citing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors that may drive safe-haven investments into gold, alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - In contrast, analysts are cautious about oil prices in the second half of the year, noting that while recent market sentiment has improved, long-term oil prices are expected to trend downward due to rising downstream product inventories indicating short-term oversupply [3] - The geopolitical situation is likely to provide only temporary support for prices, with Brent crude expected to face resistance above $70 per barrel, lacking the momentum for a sustained breakthrough to new highs [3]