美债市场的风险正在加剧，30年期美债收益率为5.1610%，接近2023年10月的最高点，而目前的利率却 比那时低了100个基点。除此之外，亚洲和欧洲的债券也同样遭到抛售，投资者对高债务的担忧加剧。 在美国财政前景不断恶化和政策不确定性的情况下，美国债券市场的波动加剧。 黄金方面： 据数据显示，美国联邦的债务已经超过36万亿美元，近期通过的税收和支出法案可能新增3.8万亿美元 的债务。另外，穆迪上周下调了美国主权信用评级，结束了美国长达108年的最高信用评级。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，近期美债的关注度非常高，一方面特朗普政府通过的法 案将增加财政赤字，另一方面美债到期的担忧持续发酵。 技术面：原油4月初跌破了过去两年多的震荡区域，虽然未出现连续下跌，但走弱的迹象非常明显。上 周三（5月14日）以来，油价维持高位震荡，64美元未能突破，或将继续保持55-64美元区间宽幅震荡。 小时图来看，油价从周三（5月21日）的高点持续震荡下行，日内上方关注61.50美元的阻力，下方若跌 破60.30美元则看向58.50美元一线。 日经225方面： 日经225在38750一线遇阻回落，小时图震荡下行，昨日触 ...

Group 1 - The recent auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds was described as "disastrous," leading to a significant decline in the bond market and a drop in U.S. stock indices [2][6] - The 20-year Treasury bond yield reached 5.1%, indicating increased investor concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, as higher yields are now required to attract buyers [6][10] - The overall performance of the U.S. financial markets has been negatively impacted, with major stock indices experiencing their largest single-day drop since April 21, and the dollar index falling below the 100 mark [9][8] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1, following similar actions by Fitch and S&P, which has heightened uncertainty in the Treasury market [5][10] - The structural weakness in demand for U.S. Treasuries has been exposed, compounded by concerns over credit ratings and fiscal deficits, leading to poor performance in both the stock and currency markets [8][9] - The U.S. government is facing increasing challenges in financing, as nearly 80% of its debt is short-term, and the ability to issue long-term bonds is diminishing due to waning investor interest [19][20] Group 3 - The current situation reflects a potential precursor to a collapse in U.S. Treasury bonds, posing a serious test to the credibility of U.S. financial markets and the global pricing system [20][22] - The Trump administration's strategies to manage the debt crisis, including reducing government spending and increasing tariffs, have not yielded the expected results, leading to a more precarious fiscal environment [11][16] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates further complicates the situation, as rising deficits and declining creditworthiness increase the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government [17][20]

| 佤邦尚未复产前,锡价基本面支撑较强。 | | | 震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、供给走强,需求走弱。2、进入低估值区间。3、需求端没有改 | | 工业硅 | 震荡 | | | 善、库存压力没有缓解。 | | | | | | 1、注册仓单量极少。2、首次交割在即,注册仓单量极少。3、期 | | 多晶硅 | | 货贴水现货,注册仓单意愿低。 | | 1、供给未现进一步收缩。2、显现库存持续累库,下游原料库存 | | 炭酸锂 | | | | 高位。3、价格低位下,下游仍维持刚需采买。 | | | | | | 现货处于旺季向淡季切换的窗口期,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 出口可能转弱的潜在风险仍未探明,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 热卷 | 看空 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水见顶预期,但供给端暂时没故事讲,关注钢材压力 | | 锰矿过剩预期下仍有下降预期,且品种仓单压力重。 | | 新住 | 看空 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 一票之差，特朗普减税案在众院涉险过关，参院还有难关得过。美联储当红 理事沃勒：减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税企稳下半年将降息。美国5 月Markit 制造业和服务业 PMI 均超预期且扩张，价格指数再涨。欧元区 5 月 PMI 意外 萎缩，服务业创 16 个月来最差表现。美日财长会后表态：美方"没谈汇率， 当前汇率反映基本面"，日方"没谈美债"。国内轮动较快，市场主线驱动 力较弱，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 防守观望。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期市场进入了数据真空区，缺乏新鲜的利多或利空因素，震荡成为了市场 的共识。从期货的走势来看，多空力量势均力敌，震荡期间每当触碰到区间 上下沿，都会迎来多空的短兵相接。短期若无增量信息或基本面数据指引， 料震荡格局仍将延续，市场可能继续以利差挖掘为主导。 ◆ 策略建议： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 短期看好。 研究咨询部 2025-05-23 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 从业编号：F03102085 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子出现改善，胶市做多信心得到提振。不过面对国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：虽然中美经贸达成实质性进展，宏观因子转向乐观态势。不过 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近， "灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+产油国加快增产节奏，叠加原油需求预 期偏弱。在 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月23日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 5月22日 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | | | | | | | | 绝对值 绝对值 百分比 | | | 百分比 | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc -16.40 | 元/桶 | 453.70 | | -3.49% | -7.00 | -1.52% | | | WTI - | 美元/桶 | 61.34 | | 0 | -0.35 | -0.57% | | | Brent -0.55 | 美元/桶 | 64.03 | | -0.85% | -0.59 | -0.91% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI -2.25 | 美元/桶 | 1.76 | | -56.12% | -0.57 | -24.48% | | | Sc-Brent -1.70 | 美元/桶 | -0.93 | | -221.10% | -0.33 | 54.93% | | | Brent-WTI ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 777.92 | 0.20% | 773.76 | -0.71% | | | 黄金T+D | 777.77 | 0.54% | 770.82 | -0.91% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3294.70 | -0.76% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3295.10 | -0.65% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 8278 | 0.34% | 8251.00 | -0.52% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8268 | 0.38% | 8224 | -0.63% | | 子 盘 | Comex白银2506 | 33.180 | -1.18% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | 33.190 | -0.77% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2506合约对2512合约价差 | ...

当地时间5月22日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指基本持平，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳指涨0.28%。 美国众议院以微弱票数批准特朗普税改方案后，市场忧虑美国财政赤字风险上升。受此影响，美国长期 国债市场面临抛售压力，30年期国债收益率持续上行，创下自2023年10月以来新高。 美股三大指数走势分化 美国国债收益率大幅攀升 当地时间周四，美股三大指数走势分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指基本收平，报41859.09点；标 普500指数跌0.04%，报5842.01点；纳指涨0.28%，报18925.73点。 板块方面，大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉涨近2%，谷歌 涨逾1%，亚马逊涨近1%，英伟达涨0.78%，微软涨0.51%，脸书涨0.17%，苹果跌0.36%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通跌0.14%，高盛涨0.77%，花旗跌0.03%，摩根士丹利涨0.76%，美国银行涨 0.12%，富国银行涨0.2%。 能源股全线走低，埃克森美孚跌0.68%，雪佛龙跌0.21%，康菲石油跌超1%，斯伦贝谢跌0.38%，西方 石油跌0.15%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 ...