1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A - share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension dragged down the bond market sentiment. On Friday, rumors that the six major banks stopped selling five - year large - value certificates of deposit and cut the interest rates of three - year deposit products led to an increase in domestic interest - rate cut expectations, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to end [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected the bond market sentiment. The rumor of banks' deposit - product adjustments on Friday led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Trading was active, with stable activity. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth slowing and deflation risks. The bond market is likely to have low - level fluctuations, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread is extremely low. Similar to the 30 - year situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the CDB bond variety spread is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 173.5 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds dominated. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 55.8 billion yuan, including 27 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 28.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 913.6 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the overall turnover decreased slightly, but there were different trends among varieties [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The bond market first declined and then rebounded last week, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Yields of different - term bonds changed, and yields of representative individual bonds also changed [37][41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 12BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread was 18BP [49]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [5]. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic breakthrough in silver prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts and inventory depletion, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][36]. - The copper industry is seeing a deepening of the anti-involution trend in smelting, with a consensus reached among CSPT members to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026 [2]. - The lithium market is characterized by mixed factors, with prices fluctuating and strong demand expectations, particularly in energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 12% interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 71% to 86.4% [1]. - Silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 559 tons by November 30, down 633 tons from October 8, leading to a risk of short squeeze [1][36]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, with Chinese inventory down by 3.1 thousand tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: New production capacity in Xinjiang is coming online, while demand remains stable despite high prices [2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with supply remaining relatively loose [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3.5% to 96,000 yuan/ton, with production slightly down by 1% [3]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are high due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with domestic prices for electrolytic cobalt rising to 403,000 yuan/ton [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [1][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Dollar: Volatile [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non-US currencies have rebounded. Gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9]. - Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, causing the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut to quickly rise to 80%. The market's concern about the AI bubble has decreased. US retail sales in September were below expectations, consumer momentum has slowed down, and inflation pressure has increased. Although the initial jobless claims for the week were lower than expected and the previous value, the weakening trend in the labor market remains unchanged. The lack of key inflation and employment data before the Fed's December interest rate meeting will increase market volatility [2][11]. - The short - term market will continue to be in a state of liquidity repair, with the US dollar index declining, risk assets rising, and safe - haven assets recovering [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Global Market Overview - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, non - US currencies have generally appreciated, gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, the spot commodity index has closed higher, and Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly risen, with US and Chinese A - share markets rebounding. The S&P 500 has risen by 3.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.53%, and the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 3.35%. Fed officials' dovish remarks and Google's competition with NVIDIA in the AI field have boosted the stock market. However, the weakening economic fundamentals in China and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits at the end of the year limit the rebound of the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.01%. The expectation of an interest rate cut has risen, but the downward space for long - term bond yields is limited due to future inflation pressure. The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus plan has pushed up the yield of Japanese government bonds. The yield of China's 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen slightly, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has narrowed [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non - US currencies have rebounded. The offshore RMB has risen by 0.48%, the euro has risen by 0.74%, the pound has risen by 1.02%, and other non - US currencies have also shown varying degrees of appreciation [23][24][26] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce due to the increased expectation of an interest rate cut and concerns about a short squeeze in silver. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel. The supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, but concerns about supply and the decline of the US dollar have led to an increase in the commodity spot index [27][29] 3. Hotspot Tracking - US retail data in September were below expectations, and the slowdown in retail growth indicates weakening consumer momentum and rising downward pressure on the real economy. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has reversed, and the short - term market is in a state of liquidity repair [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday: Eurozone November CPI; Wednesday: US November ADP Employment and November ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI; Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week and November Challenger Job Cuts; Friday: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend driven by rising metal prices due to interest rate cut expectations [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent increase in metal prices is primarily influenced by the anticipation of interest rate cuts, which is expected to reshape the monetary credit landscape and increase demand for precious metals like gold and silver [2][3]. - The report suggests that the valuation of precious metals is currently at the lower end of historical averages, indicating potential for continued recovery and growth in this sector [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 3.56%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.64%. The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.73 percentage points, rising by 3.37% [3]. - Precious metals saw significant weekly gains, with gold prices increasing by 4.77% and silver by 14.95%. Year-to-date, precious metals have risen by 72.35% [9][10]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price fluctuations, with copper prices increasing by 3.33% and aluminum by 2.46%. The report notes that the prices of lithium and cobalt also saw upward trends [2][14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, indicating a general upward trend in prices across the board, with specific increases in copper, aluminum, and lithium [14][16]. Inventory Changes - The report indicates a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.1 million tons, while exchange inventories saw a slight increase. This reflects a tightening supply situation for copper [30][15]. - For aluminum, the report notes a reduction in social inventory, with a total of 72.70 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the market [49]. Key Company Valuations - The report lists key companies in the metals sector, providing their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. For instance, Zijin Mining is priced at 28.58 yuan per share with an EPS forecast of 1.93 yuan for 2025 [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with stable supply-demand dynamics and those with integrated business models, recommending specific stocks for investment [2][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1]. Core Views - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to drive metal prices upward, with a sustained high prosperity trend in the sector [1]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various metals, with precious metals showing a notable rise due to changing monetary policies and increased demand [2][9]. - The report suggests that the valuation of precious metals is at the lower end of historical averages, indicating potential for recovery [2]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.56%, and the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.73 percentage points [3]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 4.86%, with aluminum up by 2.46%, and energy metals rising by 0.91% [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price fluctuations, with LME copper prices increasing by 3.82% and COMEX gold prices rising by 4.77% [2][14]. - Lithium prices also saw an increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 0.54% [2][18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, the report notes a decrease in domestic social inventory by 2.1 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [2][32]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing increased demand, with downstream processing enterprises' operating rates rising to 62.30% [2][52]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, with Zijin Mining at 28.58 CNY per share and a PE ratio of 36 [19]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 36.46 CNY per share with a PE of 72, and Huayou Cobalt at 61.83 CNY per share with a PE of 35 [19].

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is mixed, with AI stocks gaining attention while the Federal Reserve remains indecisive about interest rate cuts [1][3][5] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for rate cuts, with some citing weak employment data while others emphasize persistent inflation [5][11] - Market volatility has increased, particularly among tech stocks that rely on narratives rather than fundamentals, leading to sharp price fluctuations [7][9] Group 2 - The implications of potential interest rate cuts extend beyond just the rates themselves; a cut could boost market sentiment, especially for high-debt growth stocks, but if the cut is minimal or absent, disappointment may ensue [9][11] - The debate surrounding AI's potential is intense, with some comparing current AI hype to past internet bubbles, while others argue that AI is genuinely transformative [13][15] - The investment landscape is skewed towards a few major companies, with many smaller firms struggling, indicating a potential bubble in AI-related investments [15][17] Group 3 - The real investment opportunities lie in companies that provide essential infrastructure for AI, such as chip manufacturers and data center builders, rather than in speculative AI startups [19][21] - Future market volatility is expected to increase due to a combination of economic data, expectations, narratives, and policies, making it challenging to maintain stability [22][24] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with solid technology, orders, and cash flow, as well as stable dividend-paying assets, to navigate the uncertain market [27][31]

来源：中国黄金网 临近年末，黄金市场正迎来短期积极信号共振，在美联储货币政策转向预期、美元汇率调整与全球资金 配置再平衡的共同作用下，国际金价有望在12月开局走出强势行情，甚至向4300美元/盎司关口发起冲 击，成为年末资产配置中的一大亮点。 国际金价这波反弹行情的启动，核心驱动力源于美联储货币政策风向的微妙转变。11月下旬，美联 储"三巨头"之一的威廉斯公开释放降息信号，明确表示短期内适度降息既能缓解就业市场压力，又不会 引发通胀反弹，这一表态打破了此前市场对货币政策延续紧缩的预期。 随后，多位美联储官员相继跟进支持12月降息，使得市场对该节点降息的概率预期从30％上升至80％以 上。在市场看来，威廉斯作为核心决策层成员，其言论必然与美联储主席鲍威尔形成共识，这标志着美 联储货币政策已进入"转向视窗期"。 而近期传出的美联储主席人事变动传闻，进一步强化了市场对降息力度升级的预期，原本今明两年3次 降息的预判被上修至4-5次，终端利率有望降至2.75％，这种宽松预期直接提升了黄金作为非收益资产 的配置价值。 与此同时，日元汇率的潜在反弹也在间接加剧美元调整压力。日本政局变动引发市场对安倍经济学延续 性的担忧， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility, driven by mixed economic data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy changes, particularly concerning interest rates and consumer confidence [1][2][12]. Economic Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, which fell short of expectations [1]. - Retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.4%, indicating potential weaknesses in consumer spending [1]. - The consumer confidence index dropped to 88.7 in November, marking the largest decline in seven months from the previous 93.3 [1]. Market Reactions - The Nasdaq index initially fell over 10%, with Nvidia's market capitalization dropping below $4.15 trillion, reflecting investor anxiety [1]. - Bond yields slightly decreased, and gold prices briefly rose as investors sought safe-haven assets amid market turmoil [1]. - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance on Nasdaq, with some stocks like Hesai Technology and Pony.ai rising, while others like NIO and Alibaba fell [1]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested the need for a rate cut soon, which has led to discussions among analysts about potential shifts in asset allocation strategies [1][2]. - There is a division among market participants regarding whether to bet on early rate cuts or to adopt a defensive stance while awaiting more data [2]. Company Impact - Nvidia's loss of $1 trillion in market value is significant, affecting employee compensation, research and development investments, and hiring plans [6]. - The volatility in stock prices is impacting startup companies, with founders concerned about the value of employee stock options [6]. Market Sentiment - The atmosphere in trading rooms is characterized by a focus on data and adjustments in positions rather than emotional reactions, reflecting a pragmatic approach to market fluctuations [10]. - The broader implications of market volatility reveal deeper trust issues related to corporate valuations, policy expectations, and the everyday lives of individuals [12].

英特尔大涨超10%。 周五（11月28日），美国股市三大指数连续第五个交易日上涨。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.61%，报47716.42点；标普500指数涨0.54%，报6849.09点；纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.65%，报23365.69点。本周，道琼斯工业指数涨3.18%，标普500指数涨3.73%，纳斯达克综合指数涨4.91%。11月， 道琼斯工业指数涨0.32%，标普500指数涨0.13%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%。 美股上市的大型科技股多数上涨，脸书涨超2%，亚马逊、微软涨超1%，特斯拉、苹果、谷歌小幅上涨；英伟达跌逾 1%。 芯片股普遍上涨，费城半导体指数涨1.82%，英特尔涨超10%，美光科技、ARM涨超2%，阿斯麦、超威半导体、高通 等涨超1%。 英特尔创9月18日以来最大单日涨幅。据媒体报道称，知名苹果分析师表示，预计英特尔将开始出货苹果公司最低端的 M系列处理器，最早可能在2027年开始。 黄金股表现强劲，泛美白银涨超7%，科尔黛伦矿业涨逾6%，美国黄金涨超5%，金罗斯黄金、埃尔拉多黄金涨超2%。 美国股市的反弹主要始于上周五，当时纽约联储主席、美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副 ...