Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EG continues its weak trend under high supply pressure. The main EG futures contract closed at 3,914 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton, +0.33% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,982 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton, -0.33% compared to the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was 71 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and that of coal-based syngas EG was -818 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 562,000 tons (up 39,000 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 499,000 tons (up 16,000 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. With more arrivals planned this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Overall, on the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import outlook remains unchanged. On the demand side, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved with the cooling weather, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short on rallies for hedging. Given high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise. An inverse spread strategy can be adopted for EG2601 - EG2605, and there is no cross-variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents graphs of the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [5][6]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Graphs show the gross profit of ethylene-based, coal-based syngas, naphtha-integrated, and methanol-based ethylene glycol production, as well as the total load and syngas-based load of ethylene glycol. Data sources include Flush, Longzhong, and CCF [9][13][15]. International Price Differential - A graph shows the international price differential between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol, with data from Longzhong [16][18]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Graphs display the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct-spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. Data sources are CCF [17][19][22][26]. Inventory Data - Graphs present the inventory at East China ports, Zhangjiagang Port, Ningbo Port, and other ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials at Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at East China ports. Data sources include Longzhong and CCF [28][29][32][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with the increase in domestic arrivals, the latest domestic Qingdao port inventory and social inventory have rebounded. With the overseas peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a good growth rate, and inventory is expected to increase further. However, due to rainfall in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is strong, limiting the short - term downward space. The domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12] - For cis - polybutadiene rubber, after the sharp decline in the price of upstream butadiene raw materials, since late October, the production profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber has turned from loss to profit, which is conducive to the increase of the upstream device load in the later stage, partially offsetting the support from the recent centralized maintenance of upstream cis - polybutadiene rubber devices. The downstream demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand contradiction of cis - polybutadiene rubber itself is not prominent. It may follow the fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. After the recent sharp decline, the butadiene price has stabilized, but the price weakness is difficult to change under sufficient supply [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 11,935 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,235 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - **Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption**: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report forecast, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheets were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber to China were 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total exports of smoked sheets to China were 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total exports of latex to China were 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - **China's Rubber Tire Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The exports of automobile tires in the first three quarters were 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - **EU Passenger - Car Sales**: According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 5, 2025, the RU basis was - 500 yuan/ton (- 75), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the whole latex was 14,350 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 600 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+ 17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 5, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - polybutadiene rubber was 9,750 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,458 yuan/ton (- 173) [9] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - **Inventories**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is average, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices face downward pressure but are difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term, coking coal prices are oscillating, and power coal prices are rising [1][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3,024 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,253 yuan/ton, continuing the weak oscillation. The overall performance of spot steel transactions was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.39 tons, still maintaining a low trading volume [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The cost - side support for rebar remains, and the policy side needs further observation. Under the current fundamentals, the futures market will continue the weak oscillation pattern. The consumption of hot - rolled coils still has certain resilience. The iron water flows to hot - rolled coils, so the production is at a relatively high level. Since steel mills currently have profits, their willingness to reduce production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production reduction of steel mills increases, and there are also environmental protection restrictions in the north from time to time [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The enthusiasm of traders to offer was average, and the quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.088 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.53%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107.62% [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at ports rebounded significantly, a month - on - month increase of 58.6%. The current overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing from tight balance to looseness. The iron ore price faces downward pressure, but it is difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term under the support of downstream restocking demand. With the loss and production reduction of steel mills, the resilience of the demand side of iron ore has loosened, and the iron ore price faces correction pressure. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and downstream inventory changes in the future [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed an oscillating and sorting trend, with obvious price differentiation between contracts. The closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke both declined slightly. For imported Mongolian coking coal, the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded rapidly, the quotes fluctuate and adjust with the futures market, the trading volume is average, and the market is mostly in a cautious wait - and - see state [4] Logic and Viewpoints - For coking coal, the domestic mine supply has not fully recovered, but the recent rapid rebound of Mongolian coking coal customs clearance volume has a certain impact on the short - term price. From the perspective of inventory, the inventory at all links in the industry is at a medium - low level, and the coking coal inventory is significantly lower than the same period last year, which supports the market fundamentals to maintain resilience. The market's expectation of the subsequent rise of raw material prices continues to increase. The continuous rise of thermal coal spot prices further strengthens the support for coking coal prices. For coke, the supply has shrunk, the third round of price increase is still in progress, and the downstream steel enterprises on the demand side still mainly purchase for rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new round of coke price increase, the steel mills' production reduction plans, and the recovery progress of coking coal supply [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5] Power Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices are still strong, and the supply is still tight. With the railway transportation discount again, the platforms and traders are actively pulling and transporting, and the miners' inventory has been at a low level for a long time. Miners are optimistic about the future price increase recently, believing that the supply - demand mismatch is difficult to change in the short - term. At the ports, the port transactions are still mainly long - term agreements. Affected by the upstream price increase, the traders' quotes remain high, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Currently, it is difficult to find low - priced coal at the ports, the inventory accumulation is less than expected, the downstream demand is good, and the short - term price will mainly rise. In terms of imports, the recent import coal market has been actively tendering, the domestic - foreign price difference is large, there is a certain profit in imported coal, and the center of the recently awarded bid prices has also risen [6] Demand and Logic - Affected by the tight supply in the production areas, the short - term price will oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, but the winter heating peak season is coming, and the non - power demand of the downstream is strong. Attention should be paid to the overall consumption and restocking situation in the future [6] Strategy - No strategy provided [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The acrylene market continues to decline due to weak demand, a loose supply pattern, and limited cost - side support. Although some PDH units in Shandong have shut down or plan to shut down, the acrylene market remains weak. The cost - side support is limited due to the oversupply pressure of international oil prices and the weakness of external propane. The demand side is difficult to improve significantly as downstream new projects are mostly postponed, the overall downstream operating rate has declined, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Acrylene Basis Structure - The acrylene basis structure includes data on the acrylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, and 01 - 05 contract. The acrylene main contract closing price is 5977 yuan/ton (- 49), the East China basis is - 137 yuan/ton (+ 14), and the North China basis is - 195 yuan/ton (- 29) [1][14][8] 2. Acrylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The acrylene production profit and operating rate involve indicators such as the difference between acrylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, acrylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit, and MTO production profit. The acrylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+ 1%) [1][16] 3. Acrylene Import and Export Profit - The acrylene import and export profit is reflected in the import profit, which is - 392 yuan/ton (- 44). It also includes the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, and Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR [1][29] 4. Acrylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For acrylene downstream products, the operating rates and production profits of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are considered. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 43% (+ 2.00%) with a production profit of 100 yuan/ton (+ 70); the propylene oxide operating rate is 69% (+ 1%) with a production profit of - 488 yuan/ton (- 68) [1] 5. Acrylene Inventory - The acrylene inventory includes the acrylene factory inventory, which is 45050 tons (- 1210), and the PP powder factory inventory [1][64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Alumina: Rebounding from the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization with the October ADP employment increase exceeding expectations, while wage growth remains stagnant. The US October ISM services PMI rebounds above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, but inflation pressure becomes more evident [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,395, down 70 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,846, down 20. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, and the LME aluminum 3M trading volume also decreased. The LME注销仓单占比 is 7.90%, down 0.35% [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,772, up 2. The trading volume increased, and the open interest also increased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is - 19 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,830, down 130. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is - 125.00 [1] Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price is 2,881, down 15. The price of pre - baked anodes is 5,887, unchanged. The processing fees of aluminum rods and bars in some regions have different changes, and the alumina price in some import regions also shows different trends [1] Calculation - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 5,176.88, down 132.78. The profit of ADC12 is - 99, down 53. The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils is 3,713.74, down 316.86 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 5, most equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; more commodities fell, with metals continuing relatively weak performances [11][14] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe), egg, and rapeseed meal, while the top three decliners are poly-silicon, fiberboard, and bitumen [12][13] - Most equity indices in China's financial futures rose, and CGB futures fell [14] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 5, most equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; more commodities fell, with metals continuing relatively weak performances [11][14] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe) (up 4.1% with open interest up 10.2% month-on-month), egg (up 1.9% with open interest up 4.7% month-on-month), and rapeseed meal (up 1.6% with open interest up 8.7% month-on-month) [12] - The top three decliners in China's commodity futures are poly-silicon (down 2.4% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), fiberboard (down 1.8% with open interest up 3.4% month-on-month), and bitumen (down 1.6% with open interest down 1.7% month-on-month) [13] - Most equity indices in China's financial futures rose, with IM increasing by 0.8% and IC increasing by 0.5%; CGB futures fell, among which TL fell by 0.1% [14] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On November 5, live hog increased by 1.6% to 11945 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, it is still in the period of high-capacity fulfillment. Anti-involution policies continue, and breeding profits remain in a state of loss, which is conducive to capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [19][22] - On the supply side, in the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has restrained the sentiment toward secondary fattening; leading hog enterprises have maintained a relatively fast pace of hog sales. In the medium term, the national capacity of sows capable of reproduction remained at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of new piglets born from January to September continued to increase month-on-month. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has begun to show signs of reduction [20] - On the demand side, as temperatures drop, the price ratio of fattened hogs has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, leading hog enterprises are actively selling hogs, resulting in a decline in the average weight of hogs sold; the sentiment toward restocking for secondary fattening has weakened to some extent [21] 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Iron Ore - On November 5, iron ore decreased by 0.3% to 776 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, while disturbances from domestic and international macro factors as well as policy expectations still exist. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [27][31] - On the supply side, the shipment volume of overseas iron ore mines has decreased month-on-month, while the arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. Recently, there are still hurricanes forming in Southeast Asia, which may disrupt the rhythm of shipment and arrival at ports [28] - On the demand side, the average daily output of sampled molten iron has dropped significantly. Tangshan region has been obviously affected by environmental protection-related production restrictions, and some steel mills have begun annual maintenance of blast furnaces due to profit factors. The peak demand season is gradually coming to an end, which may limit the room for molten iron output to recover [29] - In terms of inventory, steel mills have reduced spot purchases, leading to a decline in their imported iron ore inventories. Meanwhile, port inventories have accumulated significantly, and the pressure on fundamentals has increased to some extent [30] 1.2.2 Steel Rebar - On November 5, steel rebar decreased by 1.2% to 3024 yuan/ton. Inventory levels remain relatively high year-on-year. After the short-term cooling of macro sentiment, the market is expected to face downward pressure for adjustment. Attention should be paid to disturbances from macro policies and iron ore supply [36][40] - On the supply side, recently, steel mills' profit margins have improved marginally. However, affected by environmental protection-related production restrictions and the increase in seasonal maintenance of steel mills, molten iron output has declined from a high level. Some steel mills have resumed production of rolling lines, leading to a continued increase in the output of the five major steel products, among which the output of construction steel has increased significantly [37] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel rebar is acceptable. The destocking speed of steel products has accelerated, and the fundamentals have continued to improve. Nevertheless, the situation where inventory levels are relatively high year-on-year remains unchanged. As the peak demand season for steel rebar is drawing to a close, the demand outlook remains relatively cautious [38][39] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional 24% tariff rate on imports from the United States will be suspended for another year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on imports from the United States will be retained [45][46] - On November 5, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum in Shanghai and delivered a keynote speech [46] - The EU will investigate Anglo American's plan to sell its nickel mining business to MMG. China supports Chinese companies in conducting practical cooperation under the principle of mutual benefit and hopes relevant parties will honor the commitment to openness [46] 2.2 Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily turnover of the northbound Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect and the southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect reached RMB 206.4 billion and HKD 125.9 billion respectively, up 67% and 229% YoY respectively [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **PTA**: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is cautious. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: This week, the arrival of foreign - sourced vessels is concentrated, and the supply of imports this month is abundant. The inventory of subsequent trade circulation will be replenished. Fundamentally, the expectation of long - term supply surplus persists, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved slightly compared with the previous day. The spot basis was weak, and the buying from traders increased. The negotiation was mainly among traders during the day, with sporadic bids from polyester factories. The mainstream for next week was negotiated and traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4470 - 4540. There were transactions at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract for mid - November. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 77. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped, and the restart time is undetermined. A new 3 - million - ton PTA device was put into production in mid - October and is currently operating normally [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4510, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 90, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories was 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish situation [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately increased at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated at night. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of 73 - 74 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The trading of near - term goods was the main activity. In terms of US dollars, the center of the external ethylene glycol market strengthened slightly at a low level. The cargo arriving at the port next week was traded at around 466 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation of near - term cargo rebounded to around 469 - 472 US dollars/ton. The buying sentiment at low levels improved [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 3982, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with the previous period, indicating a bearish situation [9]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [9]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [13]. - **Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 - **Positive factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce [10]. - **Negative factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton production capacity of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the production capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased [11]. 3.6当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes the impact of macro - economic and industry news on commodity prices. For example, gold is affected by government shutdown on liquidity, copper lacks clear driving forces and shows price fluctuations, etc. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 yesterday, down 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 916.38, up 0.63% [5]. - **Silver**: Shows an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 yesterday, up 0.33%, and the night - session closed at 11381, up 1.58% [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks clear driving forces, with price oscillations and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85670 yesterday, down 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 85900, up 0.27% [9]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22650 yesterday, down 0.09% [12]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17475 yesterday, up 0.34% [16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282090 yesterday, down 0.58%, and the night - session closed at 282820, up 0.28% [19]. - **Aluminum**: Runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21395 yesterday, down 70 [23]. - **Alumina**: Bounces back from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2772 yesterday, up 2 [23]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120030 yesterday, up 330 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price runs in a narrow range at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12535 yesterday, down 10 [26]. Energy Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 77800 yesterday, up 640 [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are cleared, and the market is strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9020 yesterday, up 135 [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market may correct as the news - based expectations are not met, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53355 yesterday, down 360 [34]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 12601 contract was 776.0 yesterday, up 0.5 [37]. - **Rebar**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the RB2601 contract was 3024 yesterday, down 37 [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the HC2601 contract was 3253 yesterday, down 28 [40]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5560 yesterday, up 50 [44]. - **Manganese Silicide**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract was 5776 yesterday, up 22 [44]. - **Coke**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1753 yesterday, up 24 [48]. - **Coking Coal**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1268.5 yesterday, up 15.5 [48]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 741 yesterday, up 0.1% [51]. - **Para - Xylene**: Aromatic blending oil supports the valuation, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **PTA**: The demand is acceptable, but there is still supply pressure, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [54].

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/06 SP主力合约收盘价： 5360.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/05 | 2025/11/04 | 2025/11/03 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5360.00 | 5288.00 | 5306.00 | 5212.00 | 5224.00 | | 折美元价 | 648.25 | 648.25 | 650.56 | 639.69 | 641.44 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.36157% | -0.33924% | 1.80353% | -0.22971% | -0.34338% | | 山东银星基差 | 140 | 212 | 194 | 263 | 276 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 155 | 227 | 219 | 298 | 286 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different products facing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products like PVC, methanol are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, while others like urea have some positive factors but still face supply - demand imbalances [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined as supply was overall loose, production enterprise shipments weakened, and downstream demand and purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fell. For polyethylene, cost support declined, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, cost support weakened, trade - sellers actively sold, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had prices fluctuating around 5400 yuan/ton, with inventory rising and supply increasing. Although the Sino - US tariff situation eased, it had limited impact on the market [3] - Styrene futures declined. New production devices were operating normally, and the future market outlook was not optimistic [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, with PTA facing inventory accumulation pressure. The demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol had a slight decline in weekly production, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory, and the strategy was to go short the spread [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure and followed raw material price fluctuations. It was expected to accumulate inventory in mid - to late November [4] - Bottle - chip demand decreased with the cooling weather, and the processing margin was under pressure. It was mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fell continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. High port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand suppressed the market, and the inventory inflection point was yet to appear [5] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Daily production increased, and agricultural demand improved slightly. However, the domestic supply - demand imbalance continued, and the market was expected to oscillate within a range [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was operating at a low level. Supply was expected to increase, demand was declining, and cost support was weak [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. Inventory was accumulating, and downstream demand was weak [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was oscillating. Supply increased, and demand from float glass decreased, so it was under pressure at a high level [7] - Glass futures declined from a high level. Production lines were shut down, and inventory was expected to decrease. Cost increased, and the decline space was limited [7]