Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US GDP growth rate in Q3 significantly exceeded market expectations, boosting global market confidence and driving the three major US stock indexes to rise for four consecutive days [1][2] - Domestically, the market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the central area of the box-shaped oscillation. The current market still shows the characteristic of sector rotation, and trading mainlines may gradually emerge [2] Summary by Directory Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on December 23, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.20%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.02%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22% [13] - The charts also show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF decreased by 789 to 92029, IH increased by 817 to 37812, IC decreased by 7094 to 96094, and IM decreased by 1632 to 144993; the open interest of IF increased by 7033 to 270424, IH decreased by 761 to 82828, IC decreased by 1024 to 255760, and IM increased by 2002 to 351928 [15] - The basis of stock index futures shows that the basis of IC and IM was slightly repaired [1] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures is also presented in the report [40][41][42]

成文日期：20251222 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:沪锡 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 沪锡期货日报 1. 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日沪锡 2601 合约开盘以 344880 元/吨的高位直接上攻，受隔 夜伦锡收涨及宏观情绪偏暖带动、盘面快速触及日内最高点 347500 元/吨，最低下探至 335620 元/吨。今日成交量为 239865手。 图 1: 沪锡合约 2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货-同花顺期货通 2 现货市场 今日沪锡 2601 合约收盘价为 340440 元/吨，上海 1#锡锭当日 均价 340600 元/吨，基差为 160 元/吨。 3 影响因素 3.1 产业资讯 当前整体宏观影响偏中性,锡市吸引大量投机资金入场推升价 日线 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 同时提醒期货交易者,期市有风险,入市需谨慎! 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of 02 is high, and its future performance mainly depends on the spot market trend. In the short term, due to the improvement in the spot market, the market sentiment is positive. However, it is difficult to predict the peak height and time of the freight rate in January and the subsequent price - decline rhythm. Therefore, entry at the current level is not recommended. [2][8] - The valuation of 04 is moderately high, but in the short term, it may follow the spot market or recover the basis. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in the near - term continuous high. The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Shorting off - season contracts is safer than shorting peak - season contracts. Overall, a positive spread strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in the 10 contract. [2][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1606.0, down 1.53% or 16.8, with a trading volume of 281 and an open interest of 1890, a decrease of 11 in open interest. [2][8] - EC2602: Down 3.48%, trading volume of 35004, closing price of 1806.6, down 217.4, open interest of 41660, down 0.75%. [2][8] - EC2604: Trading volume of 7754, open interest of 20867, closing price of 1158.0, up 431.2. [2][8] - EC2606: Up 0.89%, closing price of 1331.7, up 257.5, open interest of 372, trading volume of 2187. [2][8] - EC2608: Trading volume of 141, open interest of 1199, closing price of 1480.0, up 109.2. [2][8] - EC2610: Down 0.85%, closing price of 1052.0, up 537.2. [2][8] Month - to - Month Spread Data - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 448.0, with a daily decline of 16.2 and a weekly decline of 52.1. [2][8] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was - 200.6, with a daily decline of 40.2 and a weekly decline of 104.4. [2][8] - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 648.6, with a previous value of 705.0 and a previous - two - period value of 591.0. [2][8] Index Data - SCEIS: Up 5.21%, updated every Monday. The current value is 1589.20, the previous value was 1510.56, and the previous - two - period value was 1509.10, announced on 2025/12/22. [2][8] - SCFI (European line): Up 9.86%, updated every Friday. The current value is 1400 dollars/TEU, the previous value was 1533, and the previous - two - period value was 1538, announced on 2025/12/19. [2][8] - CCFI (European line): Up 1.59%, the current value is 1473.9 points, the previous value was 1470.55, and the previous - two - period value was 1447.56, announced on 2025/12/19. [2][8] - NCFI: Up 9.98%, the current value is 1067.29 points, the previous value was 1064.13, and the previous - two - period value was 967.55, announced on 2025/12/19. [2][8] European Line Spot Market Situation - Week 52: MSK opened bookings at $2300 (a decrease of $100 compared to the previous week). Other companies mainly continued to use the rates of Week 51. The central price was $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. All shipping companies announced price increases for January bookings. [2][8] - Week 1: MSK opened bookings at $2500 (an increase of $200 compared to the previous week), waiting for other shipping companies to open bookings. [2][8] - Week 2: MSK mainly maintained the same price, quoting $2500 (high - cube containers at $2600). [2][8] Related News - On 12/23, the Suez Canal Authority: The Jacques Saadé and Adonis of CMA CGM passed through the canal on Tuesday. One was a return vessel with a previous statement, and the other was on a regular route with a precedent. [2][8]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 23 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8780 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.68%，持仓 减仓 7830 手至 21.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580593 元/吨，较上一 交易日上调 15 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收 至 70 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 59225 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.91%，持仓减仓 3346 手至 13.2 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格下调 至 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格下调至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水扩至 6875 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态，因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定，厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期，工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振，短期延续偏强态势。硅厂大幅提升现货报价，部分咨询 网站坚持稳价发布。受银价持续攀升影响，电池片全尺寸及硅片价格上 涨，下游在协会新的配额要求下面临一定减产压力。交易所提高最小开 仓，盘面窄幅回调；收储消息支撑叠加新注册仓单有限，盘面升水收窄幅 度有限 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market faces continuous supply pressure and weakens in a volatile manner. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply pressure persists. Although the overall downstream operation has slightly increased, the cost pressure restricts the demand recovery, and the demand support is limited. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants in the future [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,632 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 5,850 yuan/ton (-75), the spot price in North China is 5,810 yuan/ton (-80), the basis in East China is 218 yuan/ton (-60), the basis in North China is -114 yuan/ton (-118), the operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 202 US dollars/ton (-9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 50 US dollars/ton (-4), the import profit is -320 yuan/ton (+4), and the in - plant inventory is 46,560 tons (+600) [1] - **Propylene Downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 37% (-2.62%), and the production profit is -80 yuan/ton (+80); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+0%), and the production profit is -276 yuan/ton (-30); the operating rate of n - butanol is 78% (+9%), and the production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of octanol is 82% (+5%), and the production profit is 545 yuan/ton (+58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is -466 yuan/ton (+91); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 76% (-4%), and the production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall propylene production remains at a high level. The short - term loss and maintenance of PDH are not obvious, and some integrated enterprises stop PP production and release propylene. The commercial sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, and the supply pressure persists [2] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operation has slightly increased. Among them, the operating rate of butanol - octanol has increased the most due to the restart of maintenance plants, while the operating rate of phenol - acetone has decreased significantly. Due to serious profit inversion, the main PP powder plants have reduced production or stopped production, and the operating rate of the main downstream PP powder has continued to decline. The operating rate of propylene oxide remains stable. In the future, the cost pressure on the downstream will still restrict the demand recovery, and the demand support for propylene is limited [2] - **Cost Side**: The international oil price has rebounded recently, and the price of propane in the overseas market has also increased. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. As the supply and demand remain loose and the downstream support weakens, the market will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait for marginal plant maintenance [3] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided

市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-23，尿素主力收盘1721元/吨（+23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-1 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-41元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-11元/吨（-33）；尿素生产利润141元/吨（-10），出口利润824 元/吨（-22）。 供应端：截至2025-12-23，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.97 万吨（-5.45），港口样本 库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-23，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.24日（-0.70）。 尿素日报 | 2025-12-24 市场交投氛围好转 本周环保限产逐渐恢复，尿素企业及下游工业开工均有小幅提升。近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观 氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，预计价格小幅上行。供应端四季度气头检修1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 氧化铝现货报价缓慢下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21710元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21790元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-245元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-23日沪铝主力合约开于22115元/吨，收于22195元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达22205元/吨，最低价达到21980元/吨。全天交易日成交209413手，全天交易日持仓301815手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76089 吨，较上一交易日变化1吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2720元/吨，山东价格录得2650元/吨，河南价格录得 2740元/吨，广西价格录得2 ...

苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9230元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1030，较前一日变动-81；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-830，较前一日变动-81。 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士行情运行偏稳定，库内成交相对清淡，主要包装前期订购货源及客商自存货源陆续发 往市场。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存 货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞 80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库 价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库价格3.7-4.5元/斤不等。产区节日备货热度不高，客商拿货不积 极，包装自存货源为主。双旦前或继续维持目前走货状态，随着节日临近，包装发运或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance's prices are expected to be adjusted gradually in the first half - month, and the EC2602 contract is in a situation where the peak time of freight rates is being speculated. The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [1][6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of December 23, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1806.60, EC2604 contract is 1158.00, EC2606 contract is 1331.70, EC2608 contract is 1480.00, EC2610 contract is 1052.00, and EC2512 contract is 1606.00. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract will gradually follow the real - world quotes, with the current speculation point being whether the first half - month of January is the end of this round of freight rate increase [6][8][9] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes changed from 1580/2540 in the first week of January to 1560/2500 in the second week; HPL's price increased from 1535/2535 in the second half of December to 2135/3535 in the first half of January. Other alliances and companies also have corresponding price changes [1] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 2 - week monthly average capacity is 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000/327,900 TEU in WEEK52/53 respectively. In January, the monthly average capacity is 304,600 TEU, and in February, it is 284,700 TEU. There are also empty - sailings and TBNs in different months and alliances. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, with 250 ships delivered and a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU [4][8] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israel's remarks on building settlements in the Gaza Strip may damage the peace - making efforts and the cooperation intention of Arab countries. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the content other than the potential impact of geopolitical factors on the market and the relationship between supply and demand reflected in the shipping prices and capacity [3] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - contract oscillates, and the 2 - month contract oscillates with a slight upward bias. Arbitrage: None [9]