Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly strong", and the trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the early part of the week, weak overseas demand and domestic buying sentiment led to a decline in Thai raw material prices, weakening upstream cost support. Higher-than-expected December natural rubber imports increased inventory pressure, causing rubber prices to fall. At the end of the week, a rebound in overseas raw material prices and positive news in synthetic rubber drove rubber prices up. The capacity utilization rates of Chinese tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week, and are expected to be slightly weaker next week [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily and night closing prices of the rubber main contract increased by 105 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 23,739 lots, while the open interest increased by 1,899 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,373 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot and mixed rubber against the futures main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The monthly spread between RU05 and RU09 remained unchanged [1]. - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of various rubber types such as RSS3, STR20, etc. increased. The prices of substitutes like Qilu styrene - butadiene and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also rose. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber, increased [1]. Industry News - Overseas demand and domestic buying sentiment weakened in the early part of the week, causing a decline in Thai raw material prices. Higher - than - expected imports in December increased inventory pressure, leading to a decline in rubber prices. At the end of the week, a rebound in raw material prices and positive news in synthetic rubber drove prices up. The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends, with semi - steel tire utilization rising and full - steel tire utilization falling. It is expected to be slightly weaker next week [2][3].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1： 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | - ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：市场情绪偏弱，短期价格弱调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 786. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | | 2.5 | 0. 32% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓 ...

Sugar Industry - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5260 to 5360 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group quotes between 5110 to 5160 CNY/ton, reflecting an overall decrease of 10 CNY/ton [2][6] - Recent rebound in raw sugar futures has not broken the range-bound pattern, attributed to declining sugar production in Brazil and supportive ethanol-to-sugar pricing, with the market currently in Brazil's off-season [2][6] - The core issue remains the estimated production for the new crushing season starting in April, with limited positive impacts from the production side at this moment, necessitating attention to the progress of northern hemisphere production [2][6] - Domestic spot prices are slowly declining, and the market lacks new drivers for further declines, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [2][6] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.61% to 63.91 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures rose by 1.06% to 14730 CNY/ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 12765 contracts to 800,000 contracts [8] - The cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 75 CNY/ton to 15520 CNY/ton compared to the previous day [8] - Internationally, ongoing macroeconomic disturbances and delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve until June have weakened the US dollar, leading to a lack of sustained upward momentum in cotton prices [8] - Domestically, the focus has shifted back to fundamentals, particularly pre-holiday inventory replenishment and operational conditions, with textile companies showing limited motivation for significant restocking ahead of the Spring Festival [8] - As the holiday approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline from high levels, indicating limited upward drivers for cotton prices in the short term, although future policy developments may provide some support [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, the three major A - share indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends on January 22, and the supply - demand relationships of different products also varied. For example, the supply and demand of coke and coking coal weakened marginally, while the domestic supply - demand of soybean meal was stable but the supply pressure was postponed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.50%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3328.65, up 1.01%. The trading volume of the three markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4723.71, up 0.64 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 22, the coke weighted index stopped falling and consolidated, closing at 1690.2, up 14.0; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range shock, closing at 1137.6 yuan, up 11.5. The coking capacity is loose, the coke production has decreased due to low profits of coke enterprises, and the real demand for coke has weakened. The domestic coal production of coking coal has increased marginally, the import supply is loose, and the real demand has declined [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the stabilization of US sugar on Wednesday and short - term technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on January 22. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.9%. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the cumulative sugar production was 40.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [4]. Rubber - Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose slightly on January 22. At night, the reduction of the risk of a US - EU trade war also promoted its rise. In December 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3% [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 22, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1064 cents per bushel, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, and it is expected to dominate global soybean exports in the coming months. Domestically, on January 22, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan/ton, up 1.58%. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined continuously, the soybean meal output has decreased, and the pre - festival stocking demand has recovered, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 948,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 49,600 tons, reaching the lowest level in six months [5]. Live Pigs - On January 22, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the supply pressure in the second half of the month has increased. The demand for large pigs in the south has weakened, but the cold wave has boosted pork consumption, and the pre - festival stocking has begun, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 22, the palm oil futures price continued to rise, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive positive days, and the price reached a new high since the beginning of the year. The main contract P2605 closed at 8944 yuan, up 1.27%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper CU2603 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up on January 22, closing at 100,700 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 3.352 million tons. The macro - impact on copper prices was limited. The copper ore supply was tight in the long - term, but there was short - term inventory accumulation in China and weak downstream demand [5]. Iron Ore - On January 22, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up slightly, with a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and the domestic arrivals have decreased, the port inventory has continued to increase, and the iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On January 22, the asphalt 2603 main contract rose in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3242 yuan. The overall supply of asphalt refineries is stable, the terminal project construction has decreased due to cold weather, and the short - term asphalt price is in a volatile state [6]. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 764 on January 22, with a closing price of 768.5, and the number of positions decreased by 870. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and future attention should be paid to spot - end factors [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,760 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 301 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the cotton basis price rose, higher than in previous years [6]. Steel - On January 22, rb2605 closed at 3124 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The steel market's pessimistic sentiment has weakened, but the overall situation of weak supply and demand is difficult to change, and the short - term steel price has stopped falling and may fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On January 22, ao2605 closed at 2717 yuan/ton. The raw material prices are expected to decline, the domestic alumina production capacity is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the spot market is inactive [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 22, al2603 closed at 24,055 yuan/ton. The market is concerned about Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum. The supply is normal, the social inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand shows some improvement [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of loose policies in the US, Europe, and China, and the recovery of overseas equity markets, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector is not pessimistic. Most metal prices are expected to show different trends of volatility in the short term. The non - ferrous metals sector is generally considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, but the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [2][3][13][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: LME continued to deliver stocks, precious metal prices strengthened, and copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory increased by 8850 to 168,250 tons, with increments from North American and Asian warehouses. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the spot discount of Shanghai and Guangdong regions continued to improve marginally. The loss of spot copper imports in Shanghai narrowed to about 650 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2] - **Strategy View**: The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong, but the North American inventory is increasing marginally, and the refined copper supply is relatively surplus. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is 12,650 - 13,050 US dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated with precious metals, and aluminum prices oscillated upwards. LME aluminum closed up 0.64% at 3137 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,070 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased with poor market transactions. LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 509,000 tons [5] - **Strategy View**: The impact of the US - Europe situation has weakened, and the sentiment has returned to the influence of the economy and policies. The high premium of US aluminum spot and the relatively low LME aluminum inventory limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The demand is expected to improve under the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, and short - term aluminum prices still have support. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum today is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is 3100 - 3170 US dollars/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated, the main AD2603 contract closed down 0.17% at 22,855 yuan/ton, the weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The price difference between AL2603 and AD2603 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices were flat, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory of domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingots decreased, while the in - factory inventory increased [9] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply - side disturbances continue, so the price support is strong, but the demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [10] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,145 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 7 to 2032 US dollars/ton. The domestic 1 lead ingot average price was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and LME lead ingot inventories were 27,800 tons and 222,700 tons respectively. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 4800 tons from January 19 to 34,200 tons on January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates declined, the production rate of primary lead remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the weekly production rate increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises is improving marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots is accumulating. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is difficult, the pricing coefficient of waste materials increases, and the smelting profit of secondary lead decreases slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.23% at 24,412 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3199 US dollars/ton. The domestic 0 zinc ingot average price was 24,310 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The domestic and LME zinc ingot inventories were 30,300 tons and 111,900 tons respectively. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3500 tons from January 19 to 108,600 tons on January 22 [14] - **Strategy View**: The port inventory of zinc ore decreased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates decreased slightly, and the zinc smelting profit increased slightly with the rise of zinc prices. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate, and the Shanghai - LME ratio stagnated and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. Zinc prices have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices are still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. The zinc price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [15] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 22, tin prices fell slightly, and the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 409,010 yuan/ton, down 2.25%. The smelting production rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar accelerated, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan was significantly relieved. The sharp rise in tin prices last week significantly suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the market was lightly traded. As of January 16, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory increased by 2560 tons to 10,636 tons [16] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices, and with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 390,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is 48,000 - 54,000 US dollars/ton [17] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 22, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 140,410 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose significantly [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the output of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME nickel 3M is 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 165,701 yuan, up 3.62%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5750 yuan (+3.59%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.82%. The LC2605 contract closed at 168,780 yuan, up 1.22%. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1.7% to 22,217 tons, and the inventory decreased by 783 tons (-0.7%) [20] - **Strategy View**: The commodity market has rebounded continuously. The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the previous high and then fell back. This week, the weekly output and inventory of domestic lithium carbonate both decreased. The "rush - to - export" of batteries supports the off - season demand, and the domestic output has reached a high point due to the maintenance of lithium salt plants. The short - term supply of the ore end is highly uncertain, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the sharp rise of lithium prices hides the risk of a callback. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 160,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [21][22] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 22, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.7% to 2712 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading position increased. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas FOB price was stable. The import loss was 77 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipt increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea decreased [24] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [25] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 2.61%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome was stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 883,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.00% [27] - **Strategy View**: On January 14, Indonesia's mining authority said that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the market's optimistic sentiment has increased. Stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. Due to the limitation of raw material supply, the production schedules of many mainstream steel mills have slowed down, and the market supply is tight. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price may show a high - level oscillation pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [28]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/2 10-093 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The first tranche of funds from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月23日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少。铂涨超10%，合成橡胶封涨停，涨幅6.99%， 沪银涨超6%，钯涨超5%，20号胶、苯乙烯（EB）、PTA、橡胶涨近3%，碳酸锂、瓶片、纯苯、短 纤、乙二醇（EG）涨超2%；跌幅方面，SC原油跌超2%，低硫燃料油（LU）跌近1%。 | 序号 | 音药名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 用 | 英伦 | Stundat | 用 | 期限 | 成交通 | 爆跌 | 持仓监 | 日期仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 182606 W | 686.55 | 147 | 686.55 | 687.00 | 10.49% | n | 2 | | 147 65.20 | 29538 | -43 | | 2 | BR标题2603 M | 12930 | 74 | 12930 | | 6.99% | 6490 | | 353282 | 845 | 129803 | 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term cotton drivers are limited, but the medium - and long - term cotton fundamentals remain strong. After a significant recent price correction, cotton is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound. For cotton trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options. The cotton yarn market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly [6][8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15300 with a price increase of 145, and the CY05 contract closed at 20620 with a price increase of 105 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot varieties are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15839 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21320 with no change [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different price spreads, including cotton inter - month spreads, cotton yarn inter - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month cotton spread is 570 with a decrease of 50, and the internal - external cotton spread (1% tariff) is 2827 with an increase of 63 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **West African Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in West Africa is expected to be about 2.2 million hectares (about 33 million mu), a 6% year - on - year decrease. Mali's seed cotton production will drop by over one - third to about 435,000 tons, while Benin's total production is expected to increase by 2% to about 650,000 tons. The total production of the eight West African countries is expected to be 905,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease [4] - **Pakistani Textiles**: In December 2025, Pakistan's textile exports were $1.11 billion, a 6% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. In the first six months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative total textile exports were $7.6 billion, a 1% year - on - year slight increase [5] - **Xinjiang Cotton Transportation**: On January 22, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1665 yuan/ton·km, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [5] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Logic**: The current cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Short - term cotton drivers are limited, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong. After a significant price correction, short - term range - bound trading is expected [6] - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8][9][10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market has been weak, with continuous price discounts. The trading volume is expected to decrease further. The prices of different cotton yarn products in various regions are provided [10] - **Cotton Fabric Market**: The overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly, with slightly better sales of thinner plain - weave fabrics. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, but the delivery time is tight. They are cautious about the post - holiday market [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other relevant data of several cotton option contracts on January 19, 2026 are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option closed at 334 with a 16.9% decrease, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility Analysis**: The 60 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts are also provided [12] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - Multiple figures are presented, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and the inter - month price difference of cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月22日，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。丁二烯橡胶、乙二醇、苯乙烯涨超4%，瓶片涨超3%， 纯苯、沥青、塑料、PTA涨近3%；跌幅方面，钯跌近2%，铂跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 五价 | 清(四)(1 | 英语 | 在南 | 同行交 | 湖 | 持宣量 | 日增食 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | BR/डी2603 M | 12270 | 1 | 12265 | 12270 | 4.69% | ব | 30 | 182757 | 550 | 96682 | 2956 | | 2 | 乙二醇2605 M | 3847 | 6 | 3846 | 3847 | 4.51% | 39 | Ja | 392073 | 166 | 346573 | -21350 | | 3 | 本乙烯2603 M | 7694 | 55 | 7694 | 7696 | 4.07% ...