（原标题：纽约联储前官员：关税或许只是"一次性影响"｜全球财经连线） 南方财经记者 施诗、杨雨莱 纽约联储前信贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨(Richard Roberts)接受南方财经记者采访时表示，从数据来看， 关税已对美国通胀形成推升效应，并呈现出典型的"滞胀"特征：通胀走高而经济放缓。 不过，他也指出，关税上调所带来的冲击大概率仅是一次性的价格跳升，并不会演变为持续性的通胀螺 旋。 关税的影响仍未定论。罗伯茨补充说，判断关税是否会进一步推高通胀，可以观察市场参与者的通胀预 期。目前长期通胀预期依然偏高且小幅上行，因此关税对通胀的影响仍需密切关注。 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降 息。 市场普遍担忧，美国的关税政策可能推高通胀，这也成为影响美联储未来是否进一步降息的关键变量之 一。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell explained the rationale behind the rate cut during the press conference following the September meeting [3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed predicts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of this year, followed by 25 basis points cuts each year for the next two years [4] - Unemployment is expected to rise slightly but remain low, while overall inflation is described as "slightly high" [4] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation has rebounded recently but remains at a high level, with consumer spending decreasing contributing to a slowdown in economic growth [5] - The PCE price index is projected to rise by 2.7% in August, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [5] Labor Market Changes - Changes in the labor market, particularly due to immigration policy adjustments, have led to decreased labor demand [5] - The Fed may adjust its policy towards a more neutral stance as the labor market is no longer robust [5] Future Rate Decisions - Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to make significant rate adjustments, with the goal of stabilizing inflation around 2% [5] - The Fed's forecast for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is a median of 3.6%, lower than previous predictions [6] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the dollar initially fell significantly, reaching its lowest point since 2022, but rebounded after Powell's remarks [7] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December being likely [9]

美国农业部长罗林斯表示，特朗普政府正在制定计划，准备动用关税收入来资助一个项目，以支持美国农民应对因出口销售下滑和投入成本上涨而面临的困境，迎接收获季。“通过现正流入美国的关税收入来为这项援助计划提供资金是‘绝对有可能的’”。罗林斯将美国农民面临的困境归咎于拜登政府的贸易政策。 https://t.co/2Ahd7fqwmO外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国大豆协会周二致特朗普的信函写道：“大豆种植户正面临巨大的财务压力。价格持续下跌，与此同时，我们的农民却在投入和设备上花费巨额资金。美国大豆种植户无法承受与我们最大客户之间长期的贸易争端。” ...

鲍威尔9月17日例行新闻发布会要点总结： 1、货币政策：今天的行动是一种风险管理类型的降息。FOMC对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 2、点阵图：极为罕见的经济局势导致联储利率预测分歧大。 3、劳动力市场：经过修订的就业数据意味着，劳动力市场不再那么稳固。失业率仍然偏低，但已经上 扬；就业人口增幅已经放缓，下行风险加重，就业市场指标表明下行风险是实质性的。人工智能 （AI）可能是招聘放缓的原因之一。 4、通胀：关税通胀的传导机制已经放缓，影响的力度也更小。"关税通胀顽固地存在"的可能性降低。 预计美国8月PCE通胀率同比上升2.7%，预计核心PCE同比上升2.9%。预计服务业将继续存在反通胀现 象。长期通胀预期像磐石一样稳固。 这是美联储今年开年以来六次FOMC会议首次决定降息，美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，虽然失业 率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增就业岗位减少，就业面临的下行风险也在增加。与此同时，通 胀最近有所上升，仍然略高于正常水平。同时，美联储也决定继续缩减所持证券规模。 而他在问答环节则表示，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 你们可以认为，今天的（宽松）行 ...

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。 这是美联储今年开年以来六次FOMC会议首次决定降息，美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，虽然失业 率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增就业岗位减少，就业面临的下行风险也在增加。与此同时，通 胀最近有所上升，仍然略高于正常水平。同时，美联储也决定继续缩减所持证券规模。 而他在问答环节则表示，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 以下是鲍威尔记者会问答环节： Q1：你们今天欢迎了新的联储委员会成员Steven Myron，但他仍然保留了白宫职务。这是几十年来首 次有联储理事与白宫行政部门有直接联系。这是否削弱了美联储在日常事务中保持政治独立性的能力？ 此外，在这种情况下，你们要如何维持公众对美联储政治中立的信任？ 鲍威尔：我们今天确实迎来了一位新的委员会成员，就像我们历来会做的那样。委员会在追求双重使命 目标上仍然是团结一致的。我们坚定地致力于维护我们的独立性。除此之外，我没有更多要分享的。 Q2：你和其他美联储官员经常谈到关税对通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024, which has led to a slight decline in gold and silver futures prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate is aimed at addressing challenges in the labor market, as many individuals are currently struggling to find jobs [2][3] - The median forecast for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% by the end of this year, 3.4% by the end of 2026, and 3.1% by the end of 2027 [2] Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic outlook, predicting a median real GDP growth rate of 1.6% for this year, and 1.8% and 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, which is an increase from previous forecasts [1] - The median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 4.3% in 2027, showing a slight improvement from earlier predictions [1]

本文字数：2787，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（18日）凌晨，美联储公布9月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11-1的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至4.00%-4.25%， 暗示年内可能继续降息两次。这也是去年12月以来，FOMC重启宽松周期，周二刚刚进入美联储的新任理事米兰投出反对票，希望降息50个基点。 2025.09. 18 美联储主席鲍威尔亮相新闻发布会（来源：美联储官网直播画面） 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示："在某种程度上，你可以将此次降息视为一次风险管理性质的降息。"他进一步补充称，"短期内，通胀面临上 行风险，就业面临下行风险，这对货币政策制定者而言是一个具有挑战性的局面。" 最新公布的经济预期概要（SEP）中，美联储上调了今年经济增速预期0.2个百分点至1.6%，2026年上修0.2个百分点至1.8%，2027年上修0.1个百分 点至1.9%。 通胀压力从明年开始有所上升。美联储预计2025年核心PCE增速3.1%，与6月预测持平，2026年上修0.2个百分点至2.6%，2027年维持在2.1%。整 体PCE调整类似，今年维持在3.0%，2 ...

鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美国通胀风险 上行，就业风险下行。明年之后，多数通胀预期指标将符合2%的目标。预计今年和明年关税推动的价 格上涨趋势将持续。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结束 后，在美联储总部举行新闻发布会。 当日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。（央视记 者 刘旭） 当被问及白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰加入美联储，该机构如何能保持其在公众眼中的独立性 时，鲍威尔表示，美联储"坚定致力于"保持其不受政治影响的独立性。 鲍威尔补充说，美联储应该观望关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何发展，然后再降息。 编辑 刘佳妮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is a risk management decision, indicating that a sustained rate-cutting cycle is not anticipated, which has led to a cooling market sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown signs of slowing growth in the first half of the year, with inflation levels remaining high and increasing [1] - The labor market is facing increased downside risks, with signs of a cooling labor market and a slight weakening in activity [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from primarily controlling inflation to also emphasizing the goal of "full employment" due to evident signs of labor market cooling [2] - The Fed's basic assessment suggests that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term, while the downside risks in the labor market are rising [2] Group 3: Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a rare and challenging situation where the labor market is weakening while inflation remains high, creating a dual risk scenario [3][4] - There is a notable divergence in the Federal Reserve's quarterly economic projections regarding future interest rate outlooks [4] Group 4: Independence and Political Influence - The Federal Reserve maintains that it operates independently of political influences, despite external pressures and criticisms, emphasizing data-driven decision-making [4] - The only dissenting vote against the 25 basis point cut came from a member who advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points, indicating differing views within the committee [4] Group 5: Tariff Impact - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration appear to be primarily borne by importing companies, with minimal immediate price increases for consumers [5] - Companies have indicated plans to eventually pass on more costs to consumers, which could lead to higher prices in the future [5]

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. >> Thanks for having >> great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.>> Look, there's ...