Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance and potential for price increases in the coming periods [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-farm payrolls in the US for November increased by 64,000, surpassing market expectations of 45,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts in January [2][3]. - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from a low-interest rate environment, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2][3]. - The industrial metals sector shows a mixed performance, with copper prices expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and tight inventories, while aluminum prices are projected to rise due to a tightening supply-demand balance [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.89%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.46%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.74 percentage points [3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 82.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 66.14 percentage points [3]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw price fluctuations, with copper prices increasing by 3.18%, aluminum by 2.67%, and lithium carbonate prices rising by 9.68% [2][3]. - The report notes significant year-to-date increases in various metals, including precious metals up by 76.81% and aluminum by 56.80% [8]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2027 for companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Huayou Cobalt [17][18].

有色金属行业周报（2025.12.15 -2025.12.21） 当地时间周四，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国 11 月消费者价格涨幅低 于预期，这让投资者看到了通胀压力可能正在缓解的希望，从而为美联储货 币宽松政策提供了更多想象空间。具体数据显示，美国 11 月未季调 CPI 年 率录得 2.7%，低于市场预期的 3.1%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的 核心 CPI 同样低于预期，同比上涨 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来新低，预期 值为 3%。数据公布后，现货黄金短线上扬 15 美元，美元指数短线下挫 22 点，非美货币对普涨；美股三大期指短线跳涨。 本周核心关注三：美国 11 月非农录得 6.4 万人，失业率为四年来新高，劳 动力市场面临不确定性 美东时间周二，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国 11 月季调后非农就 业人口录得 6.4 万人，高于市场普遍预期的 4.5 万人。而 10 月则减少了 10.5 万个，预期为下降 2.5 万人。美国 11 月失业率升至 4.6%，高于市场预期的 4.4%，为 2021 年 9 月以来新高。此外，8 月份非农新增就业人数从-0.4 万 人修正至-2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced fluctuations last week, with prices showing a relative narrowing of volatility compared to the previous week, remaining below the trendline pressure, indicating a risk of pullback, yet the overall trend remains bullish due to the ongoing interest rate cut cycle [1] Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4299.43 per ounce, fluctuating daily, hitting a weekly low of $4271.65 on Tuesday, then rebounding to a weekly high of $4374.14 on Thursday, and closing at $4337.90 on Friday, resulting in a weekly range of $102.49, with a net increase of $38.47, or 0.89% [3] Influencing Factors - Initial downward pressure on gold prices was attributed to previous trading day pullbacks and easing geopolitical tensions, alongside intensified competition for the Federal Reserve chair position, which diminished expectations for more accommodative policies, leading to a dip in gold prices [3] - Subsequent support buying, coupled with an increase in U.S. retail sales month-on-month for October and a rise in the unemployment rate for November, reinforced expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting a rebound in gold prices [3] Outlook - For the upcoming week starting December 22, international gold opened stronger, buoyed by enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and buying support from the 5-day moving average; despite a strengthening U.S. dollar, the overall pressure on gold prices remains limited, indicating a favorable direction for gold [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The consumption of copper is under short - term pressure, while supply concerns and macro - expectations jointly boost the copper futures market. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2602 closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 1.05% week - on - week. The overall trend of Shanghai copper this week was volatile. The over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, pressure on China's November fixed - asset investment and real estate, and accelerated contraction of the eurozone's December manufacturing PMI affected the market. Although the expectation of US interest rate cuts boosted the market, there were still disturbances in reality. The consumption was weak, and the copper spot premium dropped significantly [2]. 2. Operating Logic - **Macro**: US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool. The Bank of Japan emphasized prudent actions in the future. China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction [2][39][42]. - **Supply**: The port inventory of copper concentrates increased week - on - week but was lower year - on - year. The BM negotiation was still deadlocked. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year, with the impact of previous maintenance restored [2]. - **Demand**: The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year last week. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to decline, but the local price rose slightly this week [2]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate [2]. 3. Influencing Factors Analysis Price Data - The consumption was weak, and the spot premium dropped significantly. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium weakened week - on - week [11][12]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by 0.57 dollars/ton to - 43.65 dollars/ton week - on - week and remained at a low level. The port inventory of copper concentrates was 680,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week but lower year - on - year. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased week - on - week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate. The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% compared with the same period last month. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to continue to decline. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [16][19][22]. Macroeconomic Data - China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction. US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool [39][42][43]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Considering the over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, the Bank of Japan's emphasis on prudent actions in the future, weak consumption, significant decline in copper spot premium, and low year - on - year port inventory of copper concentrates, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 周末消息称乌军袭击了一座位于里海菲拉诺夫斯基油气田的油气钻井平台,该平台隶属俄罗斯卢克 石油公司，负责石油和天然气生产。关于该平台的受损程度和后续运行能力尚待评估。原油市场潜 在利好依然围绕在委内瑞拉和俄乌地缘问题上,在地缘风险进一步发酵前，已经对她缘风险升温定 价后的油价重回承压状态。 (责金属) 上周美国非农印证就业下行风险,核心CPI则创2021年3月以来新低,数据整体有利于降息的延续。 俄乌和平谈判进展缓慢，俄官员称俄美乌三方会谈尚未提上日程。以色列和伊朗间再现紧张氛围。 贵金属偏强趋势维持,黄金在历史高位测试阻力,如能实现突破则责金属表现有望强化。 【铜】 上周五铜价阳线震荡，短期均线支撑韧性强，仓量仍易支持涨势。明年一季度全球精矿供应难以明 显复供，国内统厂加工费长单0水平。周内关注国内现铜及升贴水变动，上周上海贴水160元，广东 升水仅余20元。市场高持仓,跨年多配冲高潜力仍在，少量多单依托9.2万持有。 (铝) 周五夜盘有色整体强势,沪铝逼近月初高点。近期铝市矛盾有限,社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可, 沪铝5月以来上行形态稳固,短 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温助推降息预期，金属 板块景气持续 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251215-20251219 究 报 告 相关研究 - 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.03%，深证成指下跌 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，有色金属 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - and medium - term performance of the bond market was strong this week due to the continued balanced and loose liquidity, stable overnight capital prices below 1.3%, and the potential for some institutions to buy short - term bonds to boost scale at the end of the year. The ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year, suggesting short - term buying of TL contracts at low prices and taking profits at high prices. It believes that the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. For the ultra - long end, the 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, but the recovery rhythm may be repeated due to factors such as the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds and the unimplemented public offering new regulations [5]. - The continuous decline of overnight capital prices has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent, but the report remains cautious about short - term policy rate cuts. Next week, approaching the New Year and with a net government bond payment of over 300 billion yuan, the capital market may face certain disturbances, and it is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF renewal [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Comprehensive Analysis - The monthly economic data released at the beginning of the week had few bright spots, but the domestic macro - narrative is still mainly driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data. The capital market remains balanced and loose, with overnight capital prices stable below 1.3%, which has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent. The short - and medium - term bonds performed strongly this week, and the ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The central bank's loose stance remains unchanged, and the risks faced by the short - and medium - term bonds in the bond market are relatively controllable. However, the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. The 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, and the high spread between new and old bonds may provide an additional safety cushion for the TL contract. But considering factors such as the unchanged macro - narrative driven by expectations, concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds, and the unimplemented public offering new regulations, the recovery rhythm of the ultra - long end may be repeated. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Try to buy TL contracts at low prices, be cautious about chasing high prices, and take profits in a timely manner. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [5]. Capital Market Situation - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation this week to protect the year - end market liquidity. The impact of tax payments and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange on the inter - bank capital market was relatively limited. Market capital prices continued to run at a low level, better than expected. As of Friday's close, DR001 reached 1.2706%, a new stage low, and DR007 was 1.4413%, still stable above the policy rate. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 8.11bp and 7.35bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks fluctuated around 1.66% this week [13]. Concerns about Supply and Demand of Ultra - Long Bonds - Since 2024, the absolute scale and proportion of ultra - long - term government bond issuance have increased significantly. In 2025, government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years have accumulated issuance of 6.7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 25.8%. Insurance companies, as the largest net buyers of ultra - long bonds in the secondary market, have seen slower growth in premium income on the liability side than the supply of ultra - long bonds on the asset side in the past two years. After "924" last year, policy incentives and the recovery of risk appetite led to the re - balancing of investors' asset portfolios, with more funds flowing into the equity and some commodity markets, further alleviating the "asset shortage" in the bond market and reducing the demand for long - term bonds. On the one hand, if the narrative of the equity market and some commodities changes, the inflow of funds may slow down. On the other hand, if the financing cost rises significantly, the term structure of government bond issuance may be adjusted, or the central bank may directly buy ultra - long bonds in the secondary market [15][22]. Continued Negative Growth of Some Domestic Demand Indicators - Data since the second half of the year shows that the multiplier effect of the previous policies to expand domestic demand was average. After the policy support weakened, the growth rate of domestic demand indicators declined. However, the domestic macro - narrative is driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data [27]. Futures Bond Valuation - Calculated based on ChinaBond valuations and futures settlement prices, as of Friday's close, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were approximately 1.6952%, 1.6643%, 1.5795%, and 1.1446% respectively. The overall valuation of the futures bond market is at a reasonable level. The relatively low IRR of the TL contract is partly due to the joint strengthening of the Friday's closing and the spot bond, while the futures settlement price was relatively low [33]. Part II: Relevant Data Tracking Treasury Bond Futures Contract Spreads - Data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [38]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41]. Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - Data on Treasury bond spot yield curves, Treasury bond term spreads, spreads between Treasury bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [44]. US Treasury Bond Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [47].

智通财经获悉，受地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及市场预期美联储明年将进一步降息的影响，白银价格继续 创下历史新高，黄金价格也随之走高。周一，截至发稿，现货白银价格上涨1.84%，至68.3995美元/盎 司。现货黄金价格上涨至接近4383美元/盎司，突破10月份创下的4381美元以上的历史高位，此前两周 价格持续走高。 受投机性资金流入和10月份历史性轧空后持续的供应紧张局面提振，白银价格持续走强。本月初，上海 白银期货总成交量飙升至接近几个月前供应紧张时期的水平。 高盛分析师Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart等人在上周晚些时候的一份报告中表示，预计明年黄金价格将 进一步上涨，基本目标价为每盎司4900美元，存在上行风险。他们指出，ETF投资者正开始与各大央行 争夺有限的黄金储备。 来源：智通财经 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加大了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁力度，进一步施压 委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的政府;与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了一艘隶属于俄罗斯影子舰 队的油轮。 贵金属正迎来历史性的一年，黄金和白银均有望创下自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。白银价格已翻了 一番多， ...

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a rare synchronized rebound driven by the Federal Reserve's policy shift and liquidity changes, with significant movements in the dollar, US stocks, oil prices, and base metals [1] - The rebound is characterized as not just a technical recovery but a revaluation of assets under a new macro narrative, with risk appetite returning as funds flow out of safe-haven assets [1] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which will reveal the economic impact of rate cuts, and the OPEC+ meeting, which will influence oil price risk premiums [1] Group 2 - The market is entering a verification period with a focus on data, policy, and industry dynamics, including the release of the US core PCE and China's industrial profits [2] - The macro sentiment supporting price increases includes expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and domestic growth policies [3] - Key metals like copper and tin are in a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum and lithium face high supply expectations, necessitating caution [4] Group 3 - The overall market strategy emphasizes leveraging pullbacks to invest in strong macro and supply-demand driven commodities like copper and gold, while remaining cautious on weaker fundamental commodities like nickel [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Investment Logic**: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - **Investment Logic**: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - **Investment Logic**: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].