证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 15 日 收益率小幅下行，5Y 表现较好 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/9-2025/6/13） 投资要点： 本周（6/9-6/13）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：国厚资产管理股份有限公司所发行的"H9 国厚 01"展期；广东蒙泰 高新纤维股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"蒙泰转债"债项评级调低；青 岛冠中生态股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"冠中转债"债项评级调低； 武汉天盈投资集团有限公司所发行的"H20 天盈 1"发生实质违约，所发行的"H20 天盈 2"展期。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 9309 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 8582 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 727 亿元。本周 DR001 由周初的 1.33%回升至 1.45%。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差整体小幅压缩，少部分行业利差大幅 走扩。城投债方面，本周城投债信用利差短端和中长端小幅压缩，10Y 以上城投利 差小幅 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 票息为盾，提前"卡位"利差压缩行情 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前债市震荡环境下应优先布局高票息资产获取确定性收益，同时为 7 月理财季节性进场驱动 的利差压缩行情提前蓄力。多空因素交织导致信用利差被动走阔，投资者需在票息保护下把握 定价偏差机会：短期聚焦城投、央国企地产等高票息品种，负债稳定型资金可拉长久期；7 月 理财进场窗口需重点关注中西部城投、央国企地产债及银行二级资本债等结构性机会，利用当 前市场分歧布局超调品种。央行流动性呵护与季节性资金缺口等因素共同作用下，利率波动或 持续，票息策略成为震荡市最优解。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 票息为盾，提前"卡位"利差压缩行情 [Table_Summa] 在债市震荡、信用利差被动走阔的背景下，当前应优先 ...

新华财经北京6月11日电（王菁）债市周三（6月11日）小幅回暖，期债表现更优，银行间现券收益率多 数回落1BP左右，国债期货主力合约全线收涨；公开市场单日净回笼509亿元，临近月中资金利率多数 转为上行。 机构认为，市场细微择时的一致预期程度较高，后续需要面临的可能依然是"窄幅波动"。在利率相对低 位之后，交易可能总在"抢跑"和"追不上"之间徘徊，操作难度依然较大。当前，主线依然是负债成本的 下行修复和头寸亏损的收益修复，需要以时间换空间。 【行情跟踪】 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间6月10日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨2.3BPs报4.016%，3年期 美债收益率涨0.3BP报3.983%，5年期美债收益率涨0.7BP报4.086%，10年期美债收益率跌0.4BP报 4.470%，30年期美债收益率跌1.02BP报4.929%。 市场人士认为，美债收益率涨跌不一主要是由于市场对CPI数据的预期、贸易谈判进展、美债供需失 衡、美联储政策路径的不确定性以及英国国债市场的联动效应等多重因素交织影响所致。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间6月10日，10年期法债收益率跌3.7BPs报3.201%，10年 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-06-11 持续关注上游行业价格变化 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注能源、航运出口政策变化。 1）美国贸易代表办公室近日就船舶行动拟议修改方案启动了公众意 见征询程序，根据其发布的文件显示，该机构放宽了对外国船只的审查和收费要求，被航运业和能源业视为一大 利好。拟议修改方案不仅降低了对非美制造的液化天然气（LNG）运输船和汽车运输船的收费，而且删除了对LNG 运输商未能满足美国船只占比要求的惩罚条款。 服务行业：关注养老服务相关方案推进。 1）财政部社会保障司负责人葛志昊在国新办发布会上表示，在"一老一 小"服务方面，财政部积极配合有关部门完善养老育幼服务体系，推进社区支持的居家养老服务，加强失能老年人 照护服务，促进普惠托育服务高质量发展，抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度。有关工作正在加快推进，确保更好满足 人民群众对"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价上行。2）化工：尿素、纯碱价格下行。3）黑色：小幅回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥青开工率近期持续回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二线 ...

晨会纪要（2025/06/11） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.11） 宏观及策略研究 关税缓和的效果滞后——2025 年 5 月进出口数据点评 固定收益研究 发行金额环比增长，成交金额环比下降——信用债周报 行业研究 淡季影响逐渐深入，关注中美贸易谈判——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/06/11） 宏观及策略研究 关税缓和的效果滞后——2025 年 5 月进出口数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、数据 海关总署发布最新贸易数据显示，2025 年 5 月美元计价中国出口同比增长 4.8%，前值增长 8.1%，市场预期 增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, continue to focus on coupon hunting and maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [8][9][10] - For convertible bonds, the sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit & Convertible Bond Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1 Credit Bonds - From June 2nd to June 8th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 273.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The total repayment amount was 147.5 billion yuan, a reduction of about 1/3 compared to the previous period, resulting in a net inflow of 126.2 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week [8] - Short - term yields of each grade increased slightly by about 1bp, with higher - grade bonds having a larger increase. Long - term yields generally decreased by about 2bp. The risk - free yield curve shifted downward by 2 - 3bp. Short - duration spreads of each grade generally widened by about 4bp, while medium - and long - term spreads fluctuated within ±1bp. The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [9] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [9] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [9] - The bond market was stable last week, with a significant decline on Friday. The central bank has a strong willingness to support, but as spreads continue to narrow, the risk of credit bond valuation being affected by interest - rate bond fluctuations is increasing. It is not recommended to extend the duration at this stage, and it is advisable to maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [10] 3.1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, the CSI 300 rose 0.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.10%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%, the STAR 50 rose 1.50%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.30%. The daily average trading volume increased by 114.305 billion to 1.21 trillion yuan [11] - Convertible bonds significantly followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [11] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11] 3.2 Credit Bond Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from June 2nd to June 8th [12] - There were three major negative events: Guizhou Hongcai Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in two major lawsuits with a total execution amount of 604 million yuan; Huai'an Hongxin State - owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd. was sued for failing to pay project funds, with a total execution amount of 261 million yuan; and the credit enhancement measures of "H20 Shanshan 1" of Shanshan Group Co., Ltd. had significant adverse changes [13] 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the maturity scale decreased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the net inflow, exceeding 100 billion yuan. Only one credit bond was cancelled or postponed for issuance [13][14] - The primary issuance cost of medium - and low - grade bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while that of high - grade bonds remained flat. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week. The frequency of newly issued AA/AA - grade bonds remained at a low level [14] 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations increased at the short - end and decreased at the long - end. The risk - free interest rate curve shifted downward. Short - end spreads of each grade widened significantly, while medium - and long - term spreads remained basically unchanged [16] - The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [18] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [21][23] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [24] 3.3 Convertible Bond Review 3.3.1 Market Overall Performance - From June 3rd to June 6th, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the losses [28] - Seven convertible bonds with the highest gains outperformed their underlying stocks. Jinling, Yitian, and Jingyuan Convertible Bonds led the gains, rising 24.42%, 14.89%, and 14.85% respectively. Tianyang, Jinling, and Limin Convertible Bonds were relatively active in trading [28] 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed the Upward Trend, and the Wait - and - See Sentiment Remained - Convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [32] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [32]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 08 日 信用利差整体小幅波动 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/2-2025/6/6） 投资要点： 本周（6/2-6/6）市场概览： 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：广东蒙泰高新纤维股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"蒙泰转 债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 16026 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 9309 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 6717 亿元。本周 DR001 由周初的 1.41%小幅下 行至 1.39%。 投资建议：总体来看，本周 AAA 主体信用利差整体小幅走扩，AA+电子行业、AA 医药生物行业利差大幅压缩，其余各行业各评级的债券信用利差小幅波动。城投债 方面，本周城投债信用利差整体小幅波动，各地区的城投信用利差大多小幅走扩， 贵州、云南等区域的 AA 城投主体利差小幅压缩。产业债方面，本周产业债信用利差 整体呈现短端走扩，长端小幅波动的态势。银行资本债方面，本周银行资本债信用 利差整体小幅波动，5Y 二 ...

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

[Table_Title] 6 月信用，中高评级 4Y 骑乘 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之六 [Table_Summary] 5 月，利率震荡市叠加资金中枢下移打开套息空间，机构追逐票息收 益较为丰厚的信用品种，基金成为主要买盘，带动信用利差全线收 窄，其中 3-5 年中低等级表现占优。城投债 AA 及以下 3-5 年收益率 下行 12-16bp，信用利差收窄 12-18bp。 展望 6月，存款利率下调或对理财规模季节性变动影响较小，信用债 需求端面临理财规模季末下降，供给端迎来发行和净融资环比上 升。需求端，2022-2024 年 6 月银行理财规模分别下降 0.8 万亿元、 1.18万亿元和1.16万亿元。供给端，由于更新年报数据的原因，5月 积压的部分发债需求将在 6 月释放，同时科创债审核便利也会推升产 业债发行。 同时，无论是信用利差还是套息空间，信用债相比利率债的性价比 趋弱。截至 5 月 30 日，城投债各评级 5Y 以内信用利差均处于 2021 年以来 1%-11%的低分位水平。6 月信用债供需格局不利，叠加信用 债性价比下降，或导致信用利差震荡偏走扩。 5月，低评级 3 ...

债市靳距离 - 6 月债市展望 20250603 摘要 6 月适合增量配债，延续票息思路，适度拉长期限增加 1-3 年品种配置。 关注城投债，重点关注天津、重庆等省份化解进程。关注煤炭、钢铁及 央国企地产相关主体，通过短端票息挖掘或流动性好的主体增加久期操 作。 Q&A 请问您对 2025 年 6 月债券市场的整体判断和建议是什么？ 进入 2025 年第二季度后，债券市场呈现出明显的震荡特征，波动区间较小。 在这种情况下，虽然存在阶段性的波段交易机会，但难度加大。进入 6 月份后， 我们建议投资者可以关注一些阶段性的波段交易机会，但在当前窄幅震荡的背 景下，趋势性或交易性机会较难把握。因此，可以考虑将时间维度拉长，以时 间换空间，积极布局 97 策略。尽管短期内可能无法带来超额收益，但随着时 间推移，有望获得资本利得和票息收益。 当前债市窄幅震荡，趋势性机会难寻，建议投资者拉长时间维度，积极 布局 97 策略，以时间换空间，获取资本利得和票息收益。 房地产市场持续下行压力或将支撑债市，一线城市二手房挂牌量下降， 限制性政策或放松，但成交和新开工数据疲弱，表明宏观经济承压。 一季度资金面超预期收紧后，央行或难进 ...