Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report analyzes the scale increment, yield performance, and credit - bond allocation changes of amortized bond funds in Q4 2025 and forecasts the 2026 opening scale [2][11] - In Q4 2025, the scale of amortized bond funds increased steadily, but they faced yield - decline pressure. The credit - bond allocation intensity slowed down [3][4] - In 2026, the opening scale of amortized bond funds is expected to reach nearly 650 billion yuan, and credit bonds remain an important allocation option [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q4 Amortized Bond Fund Scale Growth - In Q4 2025, the scale of amortized bond funds increased by 37.4 billion yuan, reaching about 1.52 trillion yuan. The increment mainly came from the small - scale expansion of some products that did not reach the scale limit after opening for redemption [3][15] - Affected by the interest - rate decline, the amortized bond funds opened in 2025 faced yield - decline pressure. The median of the Q4 2025 fund net - value growth rate of products opened in the first three quarters showed a quarterly decreasing trend [3][19] 2. Q4 Open Amortized Bond Funds' Credit - Bond Allocation Intensity Slowed Down - In Q4 2025, open amortized bond funds continued to increase credit - bond allocation, with the credit - bond holding scale and proportion rising. The credit - bond holding value reached 446 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the end of Q3, and the proportion in the total bond holding value increased from 15% to 22.3% [3][22] - Compared with the first three quarters, the credit - bond allocation intensity of Q4 open products slowed down. For products opened for the first time in Q4, the credit - bond holding proportion dropped to 45%. The possible reasons are the reduced cost - effectiveness of credit bonds and their disadvantages in actual construction and pledge financing [4][27] - Among the 4 products opened for the second time in Q4, 3 had a small - scale increase. Although they still focused on credit - bond holdings, the credit - bond holding proportion decreased slightly, and the allocation focus shifted to inter - bank certificates of deposit and financial bonds [4][32] - One 24 - month - closed - period product restarted operation in Q4, but its Q4 holding data was not disclosed. Another 12 - month - closed - period product entered the suspension - operation state after opening for redemption in December 2025 [5][33] 3. 2026 Amortized Bond Fund Opening Scale Nearly 650 Billion Yuan - The top - five held credit bonds of Q4 open products preferred medium - to high - rated varieties. The proportion of implicit ratings of AA+ and above increased compared with products opened in the first three quarters [36] - In 2026, the opening scale of amortized bond funds is expected to be about 645.1 billion yuan. The opening scale and product closed - period vary significantly in different periods [6][40]

固定收益周报 成交金额继续增长，收益率整体保持下行 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点： 本期（1 月 19 日至 1 月 25 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上 行，整体变化幅度为-2 BP 至 6 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债 发行金额较上期持平，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加，定向 工具发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，各品种净融资额增加，企业 债、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。 二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额继续环比增长，中期票据、定向工具成 交金额减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据信用利差整体收窄；企业债 7 年期信 用利差收窄，其余期限多数走阔；城投债 3 年期信用利差收窄，长期限多数 走阔。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数相对 较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延 续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体而言，信用债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary perpetual bond market shows a distinct feature of "long - end leading the rise", with long - end yields falling significantly more than short - end yields. The long - term spread of secondary perpetual bonds has been repaired, forming a steep term spread compression pattern. Insurance institutions increase their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, and funds increase their allocation of 3 - 5 - year bonds. [2][12] - After the structural differentiation market, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end is not smooth, and the downward momentum of the long - end is limited. The trading difficulty of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds remains relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for opportunities in the adjustment of relatively long - term varieties. [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. Market Review: Insurance Institutions Increase Allocation, and Long - Term Secondary Perpetual Bonds of Large Banks Have an Independent Market - **Yield Performance**: In the third week of January, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds decreased, with long - end varieties performing particularly prominently. The 7 - year and 10 - year yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 9.61bp and 8.84bp respectively, while the 1 - year yield only decreased by about 1bp. Perpetual bonds showed a similar pattern. In contrast, the long - end yields of other credit bonds such as medium - and short - term notes and commercial financial bonds decreased more moderately. [12] - **Spread Compression**: The credit spread quantiles of secondary perpetual bonds generally showed a compression trend, and the long - term spread repair of secondary perpetual bonds was the most prominent. The 10 - year and 7 - year spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds decreased by 20.70 and 15.61 percentage points respectively. The 7Y - 5Y term spread quantile decreased significantly, indicating a greater decline in the 7 - year yield and an obvious increase in the preference of allocation funds for this term variety. [16] - **Institutional Allocation**: Insurance institutions increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year bonds, with net purchases of 12.44 billion yuan and 42.66 billion yuan respectively. Fund institutions' net purchases were mainly concentrated in the medium - and long - end, with a large - scale net purchase of 243.13 billion yuan in the 3 - 5 - year period. Other institutions had different allocation and reduction behaviors. [17] - **Transaction of Individual Bonds**: The trading of 7 - year secondary capital bonds was concentrated in state - owned banks, with Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank accounting for more than 90%. The representative bonds of the two banks had significant trading volumes and their yields decreased. [19] 3.2 2. Outlook: Limited Transmission from the Long - End to the Short - End, and Relatively Large Trading Difficulty - **Analysis of Historical Market Conditions**: Five periods of similar duration differentiation market conditions since 2022 were selected. In these periods, long - term bonds generally had a greater decline in yields than short - term bonds. After that, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end was not smooth, and the long - end's downward momentum was limited. [23] - **Market Outlook**: The differentiation of spread quantiles is usually a leading signal for market differentiation. When secondary capital bond yields show a structural differentiation where long - term varieties decline more than short - term ones, there is no smooth transmission from long - to medium - and short - term bonds. Short - end yields are at relatively low historical quantiles, with limited downward space and low allocation cost - effectiveness. In a non - bull market environment, it is difficult for secondary perpetual bonds to achieve a rotation between long and short market conditions after term spread compression, and the subsequent trend of long - term secondary perpetual bonds is more likely to be volatile. [29][30] - **Trading Suggestions**: Since the end of 2025, the short - end yield and credit spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds have decreased significantly, while the long - term yield quantiles have remained around 50% and the credit spread quantiles around 80%. Although there is no obvious supply pressure for long - term secondary perpetual bonds and moderately lengthening the duration has certain feasibility, the trading difficulty is still relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for adjustment opportunities in relatively long - term varieties. [32][33]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent opening of amortized cost bond funds has led to a significant increase in credit bond allocations, with a total opening scale reaching 33 billion yuan, including 8.1 billion yuan for 2-year and 24.9 billion yuan for 5-year funds [1][9] - In the past two weeks, funds have significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds, with net purchases of 62.2 billion yuan from January 12 to January 16 and 105.9 billion yuan from January 19 to January 23, indicating a strong demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [1][9] - The report notes that the 3-5 year short-term bonds have shown outstanding performance, with yields declining by 3-7 basis points and spreads narrowing by 1-6 basis points, particularly highlighting the 4-year AA+ rated bonds which saw a yield drop of 7 basis points [2][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued demand for 3-5 year credit bonds in the upcoming weeks, with expected opening scales of 20.7 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, although it cautions that the current spreads are at relatively low levels, limiting further compression [2][10] - The credit strategy suggests that the 4-year bonds have high convexity and should be closely monitored for their allocation value, especially as the amortized cost bond funds enter a concentrated opening period [3][36] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the bond market is improving, with credit bond yields generally declining and a notable performance in the 3-4 year segment, indicating a potential recovery in market conditions [17][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the activity of the credit bond secondary market due to structural interest rate cuts and excess MLF operations, with a weekly transaction volume reaching 9,929 billion yuan, marking a high point since July 2025 [10][12]. - Vanke's 1.1 billion yuan bond ("21 Vanke 02") extension was approved with a high vote of 92.11%, providing a precedent for the handling of other extended bonds [12][15]. - The net financing amount for credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 185.1 billion yuan, an increase of 120.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total issuance rising to 418.6 billion yuan [16][19]. Group 2 - In the primary market, the average issuance rates for AA city investment bonds, AA+ industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased significantly, while other credit bonds showed fluctuations within 10 basis points [20][21]. - The secondary market saw a 1,350 billion yuan increase in transaction volume, with the turnover rate for credit bonds showing slight fluctuations [22][26]. - Credit spreads for AA+ electronic and non-bank financial sectors expanded significantly, while the AA+ pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a compression of 6 basis points [34][49]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the yields on credit bonds have continued to decline, with various credit products experiencing a reduction in spreads, making coupon assets increasingly scarce [50]. - The report suggests that mid-to-short-term credit bonds will remain a preferred choice for bond funds seeking safety, particularly recommending a focus on 3-5 year bank capital bonds [6][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Despite large tax outflows in January and limited central bank injections, the funds remained loose. The influence of factors such as residents' foreign exchange settlement on the funds is likely limited, and the changes in exogenous disturbances and central bank injections can roughly explain the fluctuations in funds [5][37]. - Historically, there have been cases where funds remained loose under low excess reserve ratios. The central bank can maintain loose funds through open market operations or guiding bank lending. The current funds situation does not require excessive concern [42]. - Next week, the funds will face significant exogenous disturbances, especially a concentrated impact on Monday. However, considering the central bank's clear attitude of protecting the funds, it is expected that the funds rate will not continue to rise significantly compared to this week [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funds Review - This week, the OMO had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. On Friday, there was a 150 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit due, and the central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, exceeding the monthly maturity by 700 billion yuan. After the MLF operation, DR001 fell back below 1.4% [3][18]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly, and the overall scale fluctuated downward. The net lending of large - scale banks declined, while that of non - bank institutions' rigid lending first decreased and then increased [4][26]. - The cross - month progress of inter - bank institutions in January was slow, and the exchange - market cross - month progress was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [32]. 1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - Next week, government bond net payment is expected to rise to 515 billion yuan, with 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities totaling 1181 billion yuan and 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Monday. The 26th is the reserve payment day [11][45][68]. - In January 2026, the government bond issuance scale was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan, lower than expected. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scales in February and March will be 2.12 trillion and 2.63 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing scales of 1.36 trillion and 1.13 trillion yuan [56][62]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1Y Shibor rate declined by 0.6BP, and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate declined by 3.0BP [69]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, with a net repayment scale of 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.04 billion yuan from last week. The issuance success rates of various banks increased, and the issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [74][75]. - The willingness of money market funds to reduce holdings of certificates of deposit in the secondary market continued to rise, while the willingness of other institutions to increase holdings in the primary market decreased. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit continued to decline seasonally [85]. 3. Bill Market This week, bill rates fluctuated within a narrow range. The 3 - month bill rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by 2BP to 1.45%, and the 6 - month bill rate remained unchanged at 1.13% [93]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Last week, the bond market recovered, the interest rate curve steeply declined, and the credit spreads of 3 - 7Y bonds were compressed across the board. Large banks tended to reduce their bond holdings overall [13][96]. - Trading - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, while the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase their bond holdings decreased significantly [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The issuance volume of credit bonds increased overall on a weekly basis, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issue Statistics - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, a total of 366 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 385.863 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 16.29%. Among them, 175 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 203.9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 19.17%, accounting for 52.84% of the total issuance scale; 158 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 92.143 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 0.71%, accounting for 23.88%; 33 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 89.82 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 32.28%, accounting for 23.28%. [1][10] - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.88 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.40 years, urban investment bonds was 3.71 years, and financial bonds was 1.69 years. [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.15%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.05%, urban investment bonds was 2.32%, and financial bonds was 1.85%. [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics Two credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week. [3][23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, the industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan's primary industries, the largest decline in the AAA - rated industry credit spread was in the automotive sector, down 5.3BP; the largest increase in the AA + - rated industry credit spread was in the computer sector, up 3.9BP, and the largest decline was in the electronics sector, down 5.7BP; the largest increase in the AA - rated industry credit spread was in the electronics sector, up 0.2BP, and the largest decline was in the non - banking finance sector, down 6.9BP. [3][25] - The credit spreads of coal and steel declined overall this week. The credit spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - rated coal decreased by 4.6BP, 1.2BP, and 2.6BP respectively. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated steel decreased by 4.6BP and 3BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds of all levels declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of urban investment bonds decreased by 3.7BP, 3BP, and 3.7BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of non - urban investment bonds decreased by 3.1BP, 3.2BP, and 3.5BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of central state - owned enterprises decreased by 2.7BP, 4.8BP, and 3.2BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of local state - owned enterprises decreased by 3.3BP, 3.2BP, and 4.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises decreased by 3.6BP and 0.3BP respectively. [26] - The regional urban investment credit spreads declined overall this week. The three regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads this week were Yunnan, Liaoning, and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 97, 89, and 82BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Yunnan, and Gansu, with credit spreads of 124, 118, and 117BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi, and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 135, 125, and 124BPs respectively. The largest decline in the AAA - rated credit spread was in Liaoning, down 6.9BP; the largest decline in the AA + - rated credit spread was in Ningxia, down 6.6BP; the largest decline in the AA - rated credit spread was in Shaanxi, down 17.4BP. [28] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1687.18 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.18%. Among various types of credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds reached 580.513 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.26%, accounting for 34.41% of the total credit bond trading volume this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds reached 444.52 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.49%, accounting for 26.35%; the trading volume of medium - term notes reached 362.291 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 19.12%, accounting for 21.47%. [3][29] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week from DM client data for investors' reference. [31]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that euro-denominated credit assets remained relatively stable this week, unaffected by geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe regarding Greenland's sovereignty [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Euro investment-grade and high-yield bond credit spreads maintained near historical lows in the secondary market [1] - Global markets have calmed following President Trump's retraction of comments about acquiring Greenland and withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims reported at 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts from April to June [7][8] - The report forecasts a 30.2% increase in net corporate bond issuance for 2026, driven primarily by AI infrastructure capital expenditures and merger financing needs [7][8] - The report highlights that the U.S. Treasury yield curve has shifted upward, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.23%, reflecting market adjustments to employment data and interest rate expectations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes that credit spreads have narrowed significantly, with high-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds both seeing a reduction of 8.8 basis points, indicating strong demand for credit assets [12][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on 3-7 year maturity bonds to balance yield and volatility, suggesting a shift towards investment-grade bonds and high-quality financial debt [42] - The report mentions that the offshore RMB bond market has seen a widening of the yield spread to 14.33 basis points, reflecting a potential tightening of liquidity and adjustments in pricing logic for long-term RMB assets [17][30]