Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Current State of the Glass Industry**: Over 80% of companies are currently operating at a loss, with natural gas routes losing approximately 200 RMB per ton. As of February 26, 2026, inventory levels are around 37 days, significantly higher than the typical 20 days for this time of year [1][2][18]. Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Structure Changes**: The proportion of glass used in real estate has decreased from 75% to over 50%. Predictions indicate a 6%-10% decline in total glass usage by 2025, with a significant drop in new construction [1][2][18]. - **Supply Side Challenges**: Daily melting capacity has decreased to 148,000 tons, down from a peak of 175,000 tons in July 2024. The industry is facing high inventory levels, with deep processing orders currently below 10 days [2][18]. Policy Impacts - **Hubei Province Policy**: A key variable is the requirement for glass manufacturers in Hubei to switch from petroleum coke to natural gas by August 2026, affecting approximately 9,700 tons of daily melting capacity. Failure to comply may result in production halts or capacity exits [1][4][19]. - **Energy Consumption Control Policies**: Anticipated policies post-national meetings may enforce stricter energy consumption controls, potentially leading to price rebounds in the glass market [1][5][19]. Pricing and Profitability - **Current Pricing Trends**: The main price range for glass is between 1,050 and 1,200 RMB, with overall prices fluctuating between 950 and 1,300 RMB. The market is currently at historical low levels [2][18]. - **Cost Sensitivity**: A 1 RMB increase in natural gas prices raises glass production costs by approximately 180-200 RMB per ton. The industry is highly sensitive to energy price fluctuations, with over 60% of production relying on natural gas [2][25]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Recovery**: If supply-side policies are strictly enforced, prices could rebound to between 1,200 and 1,300 RMB per ton by the second half of 2026. However, the sustainability of this recovery into 2027 remains uncertain [1][14][28]. - **Inventory Management**: The industry needs to manage high inventory levels effectively, with a balanced daily melting capacity projected between 140,000 and 145,000 tons for 2026 [9][22]. Market Segmentation - **Demand Segmentation**: The current demand structure includes approximately 50% from real estate, 10% from automotive, and 10%-13% from decoration and furniture. Other sectors like electronics and agriculture contribute smaller percentages [7][8][20]. Challenges in Capacity and Transactions - **Capacity Indicator Prices**: Despite weak industry conditions, capacity indicator prices remain high due to limited supply from large enterprises unwilling to sell. Recent transactions indicate difficulty in acquiring capacity indicators, with prices around 13-15 million RMB per ton being considered relatively low [13][27]. - **Exit Strategies for Small Enterprises**: Smaller companies facing pressure may consider selling capacity indicators to larger firms, although the number of small enterprises has decreased significantly in recent years [26]. Conclusion The glass industry is currently facing significant challenges, including high inventory levels, declining demand from the real estate sector, and stringent regulatory pressures. Future price recovery is contingent on the enforcement of supply-side policies and the industry's ability to manage costs effectively.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: No clear indication of investment rating [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Coke: ★☆☆, one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1][9] - Coking coal: ★★☆, two stars represent a long - position view, with a clear upward trend and the market trend is fermenting [1][9] - Silicomanganese: No clear indication of investment rating [7] - Ferrosilicon: No clear indication of investment rating [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of low - profit operation, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is expected to continue in a shrinking and volatile pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has an improved demand margin but a strong expectation of supply surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and the downstream iron - making is at a low level. The prices are expected to rise under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be mainly in a strong - fluctuating pattern under the influence of cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary of Each Product Steel - After the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production remained low, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil increased, production was stable, and inventory continued to accumulate with relatively large pressure [2] - After the holiday, blast furnace restarted, and hot metal production increased slightly. However, due to poor steel mill profits and production - limit expectations during the conference, the subsequent increase may be slow [2] - Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market may continue to fluctuate with low trading volume in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume increased from a high level, slightly lower than the same period last year. Domestic port inventory is near the annual high with some structural support [3] - Terminal demand improved after the holiday, but the steel mill restart may be affected by the important conference. The demand margin improved, but the supply surplus expectation is strong [3] - External geopolitical conflicts may support the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] Coke - The first - round price cut was basically implemented. Coking profit is average, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is general [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream hot metal is at a low level with average steel profits. The price may rise driven by coking coal under market sentiment [4] Coking Coal - The daily price fluctuated strongly. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume was 1452 vehicles yesterday. Attention should be paid to coal mine restart [6] - Coking coal inventory decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain degree of restocking. The price may rise under market sentiment and policy expectations [6] Silicomanganese - The international conflict is beneficial to the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, being relatively beneficial to the cost of silicomanganese [7] - The manganese ore spot price increased slightly, and port inventory began to accumulate. The demand side, hot metal production, increased slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the semi - coke price decreased slightly. The main production areas are still in a loss state [8] - Hot metal production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient. Supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]

Group 1: Long-term Interest Rates - The primary factor influencing long-term interest rates over the past year has been the term premium[10] - The current level of the term premium is expected to revert to the historical lower bound of 30-40 basis points (BP)[10] - The market is focused on whether the term premium can return to a neutral level of 60-70 BP[10] Group 2: Stock and Earnings Analysis - Stock prices can be decomposed into Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios and Earnings Per Share (EPS)[15] - The PE ratio is currently at a near ten-year high, raising concerns about potential declines[15] - EPS appears to have reached a bottom, with market attention on its potential recovery[15] Group 3: Price Index Changes - The average year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to be slightly above zero at 0.05%[32] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to be slightly above historical averages at 0.05%[32] - Geopolitical conflicts are anticipated to raise oil prices by an average of 10% per month from March to May, increasing CPI by approximately 0.1% and PPI by about 0.2%[32] Group 4: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for real estate is supported by a stable population of first-time buyers and an increasing number of improvement-demanding individuals[52] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize, with government policies aimed at maintaining investment levels throughout 2026[61] - The PPI is identified as a major variable affecting corporate profitability, with the PPI-CPI differential reflecting the relationship between corporate earnings and costs[24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The steel market is mainly in shock, with the demand and inventory of different products showing different trends, and the rebound sustainability is insufficient [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in shock, affected by factors such as global shipments, domestic arrivals, and terminal demand [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are both in a strong shock, with abundant carbon element supply, and the prices are difficult to decline significantly under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in an upward shock, affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The post-festival thread steel apparent demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains low, and inventory continues to accumulate; hot-rolled coil demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains stable, and inventory continues to accumulate with relatively high pressure [2] - After the festival, blast furnace resumes production, and hot metal production increases, but the steel mill profit is still poor, and the subsequent rebound rhythm may be relatively slow [2] - The real estate investment decline continues to expand, and the new house sales during the Spring Festival are poor; the infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to decline, and the domestic demand is still weak, while the steel export remains at a high level [2] - The steel plate gradually stabilizes, but the rebound sustainability is relatively insufficient, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipments of iron ore are at a high level and increase month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year; the domestic arrivals are basically the same as the previous period and higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory returns to near the high point of the year [3] - After the festival, the terminal demand warms up, and the hot metal production increases, but the resumption of production of steel mills may be affected by the important domestic meeting [3] - The external geopolitical conflict intensifies, and attention should be paid to the change of the overall risk preference of the market [3] Coke - The coking profit is average, and the daily output increases slightly; the coke inventory decreases slightly, and the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at the off-season level, and the steel profit level is average [4] - The coke plate is at a premium, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [4] Coking Coal - The daily price is in a strong shock, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal yesterday was 1,346 vehicles [6] - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage [6] - The spot auction transactions increase gradually this week, and the transaction price mainly decreases slightly on the basis of the shock decline of the plate price; the terminal inventory decreases significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival [6] - The total inventory of coking coal decreases significantly, and the production end inventory decreases significantly [6] - The coking coal plate is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal recovers rapidly. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - The international conflict has a positive impact on the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, which is relatively beneficial to the cost side of silicon manganese [7] - The spot manganese ore transaction price increases slightly, the manganese ore port inventory begins to accumulate, and the mine end shipment increases month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited [7] - The hot metal production on the demand side increases slowly, the weekly output of silicon manganese increases slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver [7] - The silicon manganese inventory accumulates slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in the Inner Mongolia production area increases, the semi-coke price decreases slightly, and the main production area is still mainly in a loss state [8] - The hot metal production on the demand side remains at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The metal magnesium production increases month-on-month, the secondary demand increases marginally, and the overall demand still has toughness [8] - The ferrosilicon supply changes little, the inventory decreases slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, the overall sentiment in the A-share market has significantly warmed up, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes rising by over 4% within the week. The technology and resource sectors have shown a dual-line market, driven by different logics. The policy tone during the Two Sessions is expected to be "structural optimization" rather than "strong stimulus" [5]. - The technology sector remains prosperous but shows continued differentiation. The computing infrastructure and commercial aerospace sectors have more solid fundamental support, while the AI application and large model concepts face short - term pressure. The allocation logic for resource products and public utilities is expected to strengthen next week [8]. Summary by Directory Market Observation - **Market Performance After the Spring Festival**: The overall sentiment in the A - share market has warmed up after the Spring Festival. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes have risen by over 4%. The computing power industry chain, power, commercial aerospace, and resource product cyclical sectors have been active, but the "AI swallowing applications" narrative has impacted sectors such as A - share software and Hang Seng Technology. The global HALO trading strategy has become the dominant direction for foreign capital, and the A - share market has resonated [5]. - **Driving Logic of the Dual - line Market of Technology and Resources**: The dual - line market of technology and resources is essentially two sides of the same market logic. The technology sector is driven by the industrial prosperity logic of "AI driving the expansion of computing power and power demand and accelerating domestic substitution", and the resource sector is driven by the cycle repair logic of "PPI recovery, anti - involution policy implementation, and global resource re - pricing" [5]. - **Policy Expectations During the Two Sessions**: The period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions is a time window with dense policy expectations and relatively high certainty of market rise. The current policy tone emphasizes "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and improving quality", and the policy combination is more inclined to "structural optimization" rather than "strong stimulus" [5]. - **Configuration Outlook**: The technology sector remains prosperous but shows continued differentiation. The computing infrastructure and commercial aerospace sectors have better risk - return ratios. The allocation logic for resource products and public utilities is expected to strengthen next week. The public utility sector has both substantial demand increments from AI computing power expansion and price mechanism reform expectations [8]. Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indexes rose last week, with the CSI 1000 having the largest increase of 4.34%. The material and energy indexes performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 8.03% and 6.31% respectively, while the telecommunications service and financial indexes performed weakly, with decreases of 3.20% and 1.10% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose, with steel, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals having relatively large increases of 12.27%, 9.77%, and 7.15% respectively, and media, commercial retail, and food and beverage having relatively large decreases of 5.10%, 1.64%, and 1.54% respectively [9][15][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A index last week was 24402.93 billion yuan (the previous value was 21111.36 billion yuan), which is at a relatively high historical position (92.80% in the three - year historical quantile) [21]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of February 27, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A index was 23.71, an increase of 0.24 from the previous week, and it is at the 99.90% quantile in the past 5 years. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) have recovered [25]. Economic Calendar - **Domestic Economic Data**: The official manufacturing PMI for February will be released on March 4 [28]. - **Overseas Economic Data**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI for February, the US effective federal funds rate for February, the US ISM services PMI for February, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 will be released from March 2 to March 5 [28].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the express delivery industry, particularly on the franchise-based company, Shentong Express. The express delivery sector showed strong performance recently, with companies like YTO and Shentong leading the market [1] - Since the second half of 2025, there has been a continuous push for anti-involution policies, alongside stricter regulations on e-commerce platforms and micro-businesses, which are impacting the industry [1] Industry Growth Trends - The express delivery industry experienced a high growth rate of approximately 21.6% in Q1 2025, but this growth has been declining, with Q2 at 17.3%, Q3 around 13%, and Q4 dropping to about 5% [2] - Recent high-frequency data from the Ministry of Transport indicates a recovery in industry growth, with cumulative collection volume reaching 286.31 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and delivery volume at 293.69 million, up 6.8% [3] Seasonal Performance - During the Spring Festival period, the express delivery volume in Yiwu surged from 5.3 million on February 21 to 46.5 million by February 25, surpassing the peak performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 [4] - The overall industry is expected to maintain steady growth in early 2026, supported by positive weekly data and expectations for the last week of February [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to stabilize price competition in the express delivery sector, with a focus on maintaining fair competition and addressing issues related to differentiated pricing [5][6] - The emphasis on end-user rights protection is increasing, with new social security regulations likely to enhance labor contracts and social security for gig workers [7] Company-Specific Insights: Shentong Express - Shentong Express, established in 1993, was the first franchise express company and has evolved from network coverage competition to efficiency and cost competition since 2015 [11] - The company has invested approximately 1.5 billion to acquire 15 core city transfer centers, achieving a direct delivery rate of 88% by 2018 [12] - By the end of 2025, Shentong's daily capacity exceeded 90 million parcels, reflecting significant operational improvements [13] Cost Management and Profitability - The cost per parcel has decreased from 2.75 yuan in 2019 to approximately 1.94 yuan in 2024, driven by infrastructure investments and operational efficiencies [14] - Despite challenges in cost reduction, there remains potential for further optimization in delivery costs through innovations like unmanned delivery and direct delivery stations [15] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Shentong's cost per parcel increased slightly to 1.93 yuan, influenced by rising average weights and a decline in delivery volume [16] - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability in Q3, attributed to the positive effects of anti-involution policies [17] Strategic Acquisitions - Shentong acquired 100% of Zhejiang Cainiao Supply Chain, enhancing its service capabilities for major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and Taobao [18] - The company aims to leverage its nationwide self-operated network to provide high-quality delivery services, achieving a leading position in the market [18] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to enter a phase of slower growth and stabilized price competition in 2026, with a focus on service quality and operational management [23] - Head companies are likely to benefit from established competitive barriers, leading to market share differentiation [23] - Shentong is positioned to improve its profitability through operational optimizations and the release of synergies from recent acquisitions [20][21] Conclusion - The conference highlighted the express delivery industry's current trends, challenges, and opportunities, particularly focusing on Shentong Express's strategic initiatives and market positioning. The emphasis on cost management, service quality, and regulatory compliance will be crucial for future growth and profitability [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sectors of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal [13]. Core Insights - The report indicates that under the backdrop of stable demand and constrained supply, industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal are expected to experience price increases [12][18]. - The macroeconomic environment, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints in the industry are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals [2][12]. - The report highlights specific companies to focus on, including China Railway Group, China National Chemical Corporation, and Honglu Steel Structure, due to their potential for significant growth and valuation re-evaluation [3][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes that the liquidity cycle, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals. The expected evolution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 provides a liquidity foundation for commodities [2][12]. - China Railway Group is recommended as an undervalued leader in the non-ferrous sector, with significant resource reserves and a projected net profit of 55 billion yuan from resource operations by 2026 [3][21]. Chemicals - The chemical sector is expected to see price increases due to global geopolitical conflicts, improved supply-demand dynamics, and anti-involution policies. China National Chemical Corporation is highlighted for its production capacities and potential profit increases from price rebounds in its products [4][30]. - The report notes that the price of caprolactam has rebounded significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [7][30]. Steel - The steel industry is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with expectations for price increases due to anti-involution policies and a clearer control on supply. Honglu Steel Structure is identified as a key beneficiary of rising steel prices, with a projected 30% increase in steel structure production by 2026 [8][35]. - The report suggests that the company's profitability will improve as steel prices rise, with a target market value of approximately 200 billion yuan by 2026 [35]. Coal - The coal sector is expected to benefit from rising prices due to supply constraints and regulatory measures. North International is highlighted for its significant earnings elasticity in response to coal price increases, with a projected PE ratio of 13x for 2026 [10][38]. - The report indicates that the company's coal trading volume is expected to recover as prices stabilize, contributing positively to overall performance [11][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sectors of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [12][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that stable demand combined with constrained supply is expected to lead to price increases in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal industries [12][18]. - Macro liquidity, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints in the industry are driving price increases in the non-ferrous sector [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant earnings growth and valuation re-evaluation for companies like China Railway and China National Chemical Corporation due to their strategic positions and market conditions [3][12][40]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic liquidity and geopolitical trade dynamics, with a focus on copper and other metals as strategic resources [2][12]. - China Railway is highlighted as a key player, with significant resource reserves and a projected net profit of 55 billion yuan from resource operations by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][21]. Chemicals - The chemical sector is poised for price increases due to global geopolitical conflicts and improving supply-demand dynamics, with China National Chemical Corporation recommended for its production capabilities [4][30]. - The report notes that the price of caprolactam has rebounded significantly, providing a potential profit increase for China National Chemical Corporation [7][30]. Steel - The steel industry is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with expectations for price increases driven by policy support and reduced inventory levels [9][35]. - Honglu Steel Structure is identified as a key beneficiary of rising steel prices, with projected production growth of 30% by 2026 [35][40]. Coal - The coal sector is expected to see significant earnings elasticity due to rising coal prices, supported by government policies aimed at supply constraints [10][38]. - Northern International is highlighted for its potential to benefit from improved price dynamics and operational expansions in the energy sector [10][40].

CONTENTS 目录 反内卷传闻再起， 等待需求确认 钢材周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 06 需求与进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度小结 ◆ 供应：春节后第一周，铁水产量为233.28万吨，环比增加2.79万吨，同比+2.54%。高炉端开工率小幅回升，铁水延续修复态势，节后长流 程生产积极。螺纹钢产量为165.1万吨，环比-3.10%，同比-20.05%。在铁水回升的背景下，螺纹产量仍小幅回落，钢厂在品种结构上或向 板材倾斜。分结构看，长流程产量为162.5万吨，环比+0.58%，同比-6.97%，整体保持相对稳定；短流程产量为2.6万吨，环比-65.79%，同 比-88.31%，电炉端基本处于深度收缩状态，谷电利润转负（-16元/吨）对其形成明显压制。热轧卷板产量为309.61万吨，环比-0.06%，同 比-4.18%，基本与上周持平，板材供应端表现更为平 ...

| | | | Millio | 国际娱乐 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月27日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。节后螺纹表需环比回升，产量维持低位，库存继续累积。热卷需求环比回升，产量保持平稳，库存继续累 积，压力相对较大。 节后高炉复产， 铁水产量有所回升，目前钢厂利润依然欠佳，叠加大会期间限产预期，后期回升节奏或相 对缓慢。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，春节期 ...