1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report is optimistic about the subsequent bond market. It believes that incremental funds for the bond market may come from the expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increase in insurance allocation willingness. When market concerns fade, bond market interest rates may follow the decline of funding rates [5][15]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate View: Where Do the Incremental Funds in the Bond Market Come From? - Since June, the funding situation has been looser than expected, with both funding rates and bond yields declining, but the decline in bond yields is smaller. The market is mainly worried about two issues: no more incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year and the unsustainability of the loose funding situation [5][8]. - The report is optimistic about the first issue, believing that there will still be incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year, mainly from two sources. First, fixed-income asset management products will continue to expand due to factors such as the lack of low-risk, high-return financial assets, stable market risk preferences, and the cyclical nature of fixed-income asset management products. Second, the insurance allocation demand will increase. The impact of the insurance product interest rate cut on premiums may be limited, and factors such as the deposit maturity rhythm and the search for capital gains in a low-interest rate environment may increase insurance bond allocation [5][8][11]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook: Release of Domestic Economic Data 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, China will release economic data for May and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, while the US will announce its interest rate decision for June [16][17]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest Rate Bonds - This week, it is expected to issue 841.8 billion yuan of interest rate bonds, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Among them, 430 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 261.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy bank bonds are expected to be issued [17]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest Rate Bonds: Yields Fluctuate Downward 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Funding Situation - The central bank has net-repurchased reverse repurchases and continued to inject funds through outright repurchases. The net injection of open market operations this week was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. The central bank plans to conduct an outright repurchase injection of 40 billion yuan for six months on June 16 [23]. - Funding rates have shown slight fluctuations. The trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase has continued to rise, and the medium- and long-term secondary yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have declined rapidly [24][26]. 3.2 The Funding Situation is Favorable for the Bond Market - Last week, the bond market fluctuated slightly around the China-US trade talks. The progress was slightly lower than expected, which was favorable for the bond market. Coupled with the loose funding situation and the central bank's support, most bond yields declined. On June 13, the yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 0.1bp, 0.6bp, and 1.1bp respectively compared to the previous week [39]. 4. High-Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates are divergent. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, while the semi-steel tire operating rate increased significantly. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and PTA also increased slightly. The year-on-year growth rate of average daily crude steel production in late May further declined [44]. - On the demand side, the year-on-year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales by manufacturers have increased. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area has fluctuated significantly. The export indices have shown mixed changes [44]. - On the price side, crude oil prices have increased, while copper and aluminum prices, as well as coal prices, have shown divergent trends. The prices of some midstream and downstream products have also changed to varying degrees [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a low - volatility shock state, waiting for further signals. The short - end may show a shock - strong pattern, but a trend - like decline may require a rate cut. The upside space for the long - end is relatively limited [5][34]. - The pressure on the liability side of large banks is relatively controllable, but the pressure on certificate of deposit (CD) renewal at the end of the month and quarter needs to be observed. In the long run, the "deposit transfer" to non - banks may ease the upward pressure on CD prices [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance - From June 9 - 13, the bond market was in a narrow - range shock. Short - end and long - end performed well, while the decline of 5Y bonds was limited. By June 13, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds changed by - 1, - 0.1, - 1.1, - 2.7BP respectively compared to June 6 [1][7][8]. - Most yields of major - term CDs declined. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs changed by + 0.3, - 2.0, - 1.0, - 0.8, - 0.8BP respectively [8]. 3.2 Funding Situation - This week, the funding was first tight and then loose. DR001 fell below 1.4%. The net financing of large state - owned banks reached a high of 4.27 trillion yuan. Although the CD maturity scale was large, CD yields remained stable [2][11][12]. - The central bank's open - market operations showed a net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan this week. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 declined compared to the previous week. The phenomenon of funding stratification was prominent but still at a low level [12]. 3.3 May Social Financing - In May, the overall social financing and credit were in line with expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was flat, while that of loans continued to decline slightly, possibly due to government bonds replacing corporate loans [19]. - Attention should be paid to the weak long - term corporate loans, which may be related to short - term household loans and M2. M1 increased by 0.8pct year - on - year, and long - term household loans improved marginally, indicating better business expectations and spending willingness [20][21]. 3.4 Liability - Side Pressure - The pressure on the liability side of large banks is relatively controllable. The impact of previous deposit rate cuts since 2022 has been mild, and the central bank's support remains. This week, large banks' net lending increased, and CD net financing was negative [25][26][28]. - Next week, the funding will face multiple disturbances, including tax deadlines, MLF maturities, and large CD maturities. However, the pressure on the liability side is generally controllable [32]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus - On June 16, data such as May fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, industrial added value, and unemployment rate will be released. Other important data from various countries will also be released from June 17 - 20 [35][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early April, Trump's tariff policy exceeded market expectations, causing bond yields to hit previous lows again. Despite signs of concessions, China still faces high external uncertainties, leading to low - level fluctuations in market interest rates [2][14]. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized implementing more proactive macro - policies, with potential future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity and support the real economy. Monetary policy will remain loose [3][14]. - In April, the central bank significantly increased net MLF投放, indicating support for liquidity. Economic data shows that the economic recovery needs further observation, especially the price level has not improved significantly, suggesting limited demand recovery. External demand decline also adds pressure, requiring policy support [3][14]. - In early April, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate quickly dropped below 1.7% and then fluctuated around 1.65%. It is expected that long - term interest rates will continue to decline, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.6% [3][14]. - According to the model, the implied one - year interest rate cut in the interest rate swap curve in April increased by about 19.27bp compared to March. Market participants' expectations of interest rate cuts have risen significantly. The policy rate is expected to drop by 30 - 40bp this year, corresponding to a 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 1.6% [4][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoint Outlook - External uncertainty: Trump's tariff policy in early April shocked the market. Although there were signs of concessions later, external uncertainties remain high, resulting in low - level fluctuations in bond market interest rates [2][14]. - Policy orientation: The Politburo meeting emphasized proactive macro - policies, with potential future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support the real economy. Monetary policy will remain loose [3][14]. - Capital situation: In April, the central bank's net MLF投放 reached the highest level since January 2024, indicating strong support for liquidity [3][14]. - Economic fundamentals: Economic data shows that the economic recovery needs further observation, especially the price level has not improved significantly, suggesting limited demand recovery. External demand decline also adds pressure, requiring policy support [3][14]. - Interest rate trend: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate dropped below 1.7% in early April and then fluctuated around 1.65%. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 1.6% [3][14]. - Interest rate cut expectation: The implied one - year interest rate cut in the interest rate swap curve in April increased by about 19.27bp compared to March. Market participants' expectations of interest rate cuts have risen significantly. The policy rate is expected to drop by 30 - 40bp this year, corresponding to a 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 1.6% [4][15]. 2. Capital Market - Open - market operations: In April, the central bank's open - market capital投放 was 392.27 billion yuan, with a net投放 of 32.08 billion yuan. There were no open - market Treasury bond purchases. The scale of repurchase agreements was 120 billion yuan (70 billion for 3 - month and 50 billion for 6 - month). Treasury cash deposits raised 10 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan matured. MLF投放 was 60 billion yuan, with 10 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net MLF投放 of 50 billion yuan [5][16]. - Interest rates: As of April 30, DR007 was at 1.80%, down 39.02bp from the end of March; R007 was at 1.84%, down 46.34bp from the end of March [18]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit: In April, 285.124 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with 247.916 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net financing of 37.208 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.993 billion yuan from the previous month [20]. 3. Interest Rate Market 3.1 Interest - Bearing Bond Primary Market - Overall situation: The overall issuance volume of interest - bearing bonds in the primary market decreased slightly compared to the previous month, and net financing decreased significantly. In April, Treasury bonds were issued at 146.83 billion yuan, with net financing of 26.575 billion yuan; local government bonds were issued at 69.3291 billion yuan, with net financing of 52.8089 billion yuan; policy bank bonds were issued at 60.825 billion yuan, with net financing of - 344 million yuan [24]. 3.2 Interest - Bearing Bond Secondary Market - Yield trend: In April, the yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally declined [31]. 4. Credit Market 4.1 Credit Bond Primary Market - Overall situation: The issuance volume of new credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous month, the repayment volume decreased, and the net financing scale increased significantly. The total issuance volume was 222.1512 billion yuan, the total repayment volume was 176.5422 billion yuan, and the net financing was 45.609 billion yuan [42]. - Urban investment bonds: Urban investment bonds were issued at 35.1555 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 9.1487 billion yuan. The average coupon rate was 2.53%, down 14bp from the previous month [43]. 4.2 Credit Bond Secondary Market - Overall situation: The secondary market of credit bonds fluctuated greatly, the broad - based market yield declined, and the yields of medium - and short - term notes of various credit ratings were at relatively low levels in the past two - year quantiles [47]. - Urban investment bonds: In April, the yields of urban investment bonds of various maturities generally declined. The yields of urban investment bonds of various credit ratings were still at historical lows in the past two - year quantiles. The term spreads showed differentiation, and the credit spreads widened except for the 1 - year maturity [51][52]. - Bank secondary bonds: In April, the yields of bank secondary bonds of various maturities declined synchronously, the term spreads widened, and the credit spreads showed differentiation. The yields of bank secondary bonds of various maturities were still at relatively low levels in the past two - year quantiles [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving total revenue of 3.532 billion yuan, up 41.91% year-on-year, and a net profit of 903.63 million yuan, up 173.28% year-on-year [2] - The company aims to become a securities firm with a focus on fixed income and asset management, showing a clear strategic direction [10] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 35.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.91%, and a net profit of 9.04 billion yuan, up 173.28% year-on-year [2] - The company’s total assets reached 527.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.48%, and net assets were 163.06 billion yuan, up 10.02% year-on-year [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.215 yuan [2] Dividend Distribution - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.64 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, which represents 50.44% of the distributable profits [3] Business Segment Performance - The fixed income business generated revenue of 6.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.33%, accounting for 18.29% of total revenue [4] - The company sold a total of 4,857 fixed income products in 2024, with a sales amount of 198.4 billion yuan, up 11.96% year-on-year [5] - Asset management revenue accounted for over 65% of the company's income structure, indicating a successful strategic focus on asset management [6] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3.250 billion yuan and 3.271 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 928.69 million yuan and 940.51 million yuan [10] - The company expects to achieve an EPS of 0.221 yuan for 2025 and 0.224 yuan for 2026 [10] Shareholder Background - The company’s major shareholder, Beijing Guokai, holds 20.87% of the shares, enhancing the company's shareholder background and strategic support [9]

Global Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by divergence, with the US showing moderate growth supported by consumer spending, while investment lags behind [1] - Japan's economy is experiencing mild growth with balanced contributions across sectors [1] - Emerging markets like China are growing at their own pace, with consumption, investment, and net exports contributing positively, although the real estate sector is facing adjustments [1] - India is showing strong economic growth momentum [1] - Global inflation levels vary, with some countries facing significant inflationary pressures, while China is experiencing deflationary signs [1] - Supply chain pressures have eased globally, leading to a decrease in freight costs [1] Stock Market Performance - Global stock market returns vary significantly by region, with some Asian markets like Taiwan and China performing exceptionally well over the past decade [2] - Different markets exhibit unique characteristics in terms of earnings expectations, valuations, and dividend performance [2] - The technology sector is gaining attention, particularly with high earnings growth expectations for Chinese tech companies and significant growth in India's telecommunications services sector [2] - The US stock market is noted for its high concentration, with the top ten companies having a substantial impact on the index [2] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The global fixed income market shows complex dynamics, with varying returns across different bond categories [3] - Emerging market local currency bonds and Asian high-yield bonds have performed well during certain periods [3] - The yield, duration, and interest rate sensitivity of bonds differ, affecting market returns [3] - The spread changes between investment-grade and high-yield bonds influence market performance [3] - Emerging market bonds exhibit volatility in spreads and returns compared to US Treasuries, while the Asian fixed income market has its own trends [3] Other Asset Classes - The US dollar's exchange rate is related to interest rate differentials, and commodity prices are subject to fluctuations [4] - Gold prices are influenced by real interest rates, while oil prices are affected by supply and demand dynamics [4] - Alternative asset classes show varying returns and volatility, with different correlations to traditional assets, which can help in risk diversification within investment portfolios [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, '25 Henan Road and Bridge MTN002' had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, '21 Vanke 02' had a leading deviation in valuation price. Among the secondary perpetual bonds with rising net prices, '23 Dalian Bank Perpetual Bond 01' had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, '25 China Zheshang Bank Small and Micro Enterprise Bond 01BC' had a leading deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 10%, real estate bonds ranked at the top. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 2 - 3 year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discount trading. The trading terms of secondary perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discount trading. By industry, the bonds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of significantly discounted bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '25 Henan Road and Bridge MTN002' had a remaining term of 2.89 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.27%, a valuation net price of 99.74 yuan, and a trading volume of 39.52 million yuan [4]. 3.2 Bonds with Rising Net Prices - The report tracked the trading of bonds with significant positive deviations in net prices, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '21 Vanke 02' had a remaining term of 0.79 years, a valuation price deviation of 1.11%, a valuation net price of 90.78 yuan, and a trading volume of 9.01 million yuan [5]. 3.3 Secondary Perpetual Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of secondary perpetual bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, bank category, and trading volume. For example, '23 Dalian Bank Perpetual Bond 01' had a remaining term of 2.78 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.11%, a valuation net price of 104.40 yuan, and a trading volume of 198.16 million yuan [6]. 3.4 Commercial Financial Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of commercial financial bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, bank category, and trading volume. For example, '25 China Zheshang Bank Small and Micro Enterprise Bond 01BC' had a remaining term of 2.99 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 100.01 yuan, and a trading volume of 1.75021 billion yuan [7]. 3.5 Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 10% - The report tracked the trading of high - yield bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '21 Vanke 02' had a remaining term of 0.79 years, a valuation price deviation of 1.11%, a valuation net price of 90.78 yuan, a valuation yield of 17.14%, and a trading volume of 9.01 million yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Trading Terms The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 2 - 3 year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discount trading [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Secondary Perpetual Bond Trading Terms The trading terms of secondary perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discount trading [2]. 3.9 Distribution of Discounted Trading Proportions and Trading Volumes by Industry By industry, the bonds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金投顾，顾名思义，就是基金的投资顾问。 很多行业都有顾问，特别是一些专业性很强的行业。 例如， • 看病吃药，需要医生，医生就是顾问； 什么是「固收+」，有哪些品种? • 有法律问题，需要律师，律师也是顾问。 基金投资也是如此。 基金投顾的诞生，正是为了解决基金行业存在的"基金赚钱，基民不赚钱"的问题。 那么，基金投顾有哪些优势？ 是如何通过"投"和"顾"，帮助投资者获得好收益的呢？ 这里有一门免费课程，详细介绍了基金投顾的相关知识。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 基金投顾 」即可领取～ 『 银行螺丝钉 1420 07 5 - 1 - 快速了解基金投顾 课程介绍 ·基金投顾是什么 ·基金投顾有哪些优势 · 如何通过「投」和「顾」帮你 获得好收益 #螺丝钉小知识 und 银行螺丝钉 固收其实很好理解,就是固定收益。 例如纯债,就属于固收类品种。类似的, 还有像一些理财,也属于这一类。 在纯债的基础上，增加少量的股票、可转 债等资产,就属于「固收+」类基金。 「出版」、十年中世出或公如我· ' 凹拟「」） 工玄四鬥卧儿 ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ...