Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen management and optimize layout for resource-constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting, aiming to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction [6][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - The article highlights that under the influence of policy expectations, copper prices surged again, with a maximum daily increase exceeding 4%, reaching a new high for the year [6]. - The report suggests that improving the major project verification mechanism is crucial for aligning local assessments with national industrial regulation requirements [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to SMM, domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons as of Thursday compared to Monday [6]. - As copper prices rise, downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious in their purchasing, with transactions primarily driven by essential needs [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive due to the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and expectations of global economic recovery next year, contributing to a strong performance in copper prices [6]. - Low inventory levels and resilient demand are expected to provide support for prices, although high prices may suppress some physical buying [6]. Group 4: Market Strategy - The report indicates that as the year-end approaches, downstream demand may enter a seasonal lull, leading to a potential accumulation phase in domestic markets [6]. - Short-term attention should be given to the overheating sentiment in precious metals and the risk of significant volatility extending to the non-ferrous market, while maintaining a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing high prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel futures prices have shown a low-level fluctuation since December, with the main contract oscillating between 3030 and 3180 yuan/ton, recently returning to the upper end of this range. However, the spot prices have followed suit but are limited by weak downstream demand entering the off-season [1] Group 1: Short-term Positive Factors - The recent rebound in rebar futures prices is supported by three main positive factors: first, renewed policy expectations have strengthened the "anti-involution" trading logic, leading to a strong rise in related varieties and boosting overall market sentiment [1] - Second, raw material prices have stabilized, particularly iron ore prices, which have shown strong performance, supporting steel price trends from the cost side [1] - Third, under low supply conditions, inventory pressure has significantly eased [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the low supply situation providing some support for steel prices, the fundamental conditions for rebar steel have not shown substantial improvement, continuing a weak supply-demand balance. Near the end of the year, production willingness among construction steel mills has weakened, with the latest weekly output at 1.8168 million tons, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, down 20.27% year-on-year [1] - The apparent demand for rebar steel is currently at 2.0864 million tons, which, although increased by 55,500 tons week-on-week, is still at one of the lowest levels in recent years, down 7.42% year-on-year. Other demand indicators, such as daily transactions and cement outflow, are also at low levels, indicating weak construction-related demand [2] Group 3: Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Although iron ore prices remain high, providing some cost support for steel, the supply-demand dynamics for iron ore are weak, making prices susceptible to downward pressure. If iron ore prices decline, the cost support for steel prices will weaken [3] - On the supply side, domestic port arrivals and miner shipments are at high levels for the year. Cumulatively, iron ore shipments have increased by over 45 million tons year-on-year, while domestic port arrivals have only increased by 1.912 million tons, indicating a significant discrepancy [3] - Overall, while short-term positive factors have pushed rebar steel prices back to the upper end of the fluctuation range, the weak supply-demand balance remains unchanged, and under off-season conditions, the upward driving force for steel prices is insufficient [3]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 商品市场情绪偏暖，螺纹期价触底回升，但供需格局并未好转，螺纹产量小幅回升但依旧处于 年内低位，低供应未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢厂利润改善，后续存回升预期。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现弱稳，高频需求指标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业也未好转，淡 ...

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...

近期贵金属市场表现亮眼，白银价格持续刷新历史纪录，黄金价格同步走高，呈现强劲上涨行情。 截至周一生效数据，现货白银价格上涨1.84%至68.3995美元/盎司，现货黄金价格攀升至4383美元/盎司附近，突破10月份4381美元的历史高位，此 前两周已呈稳步上行态势。这波历史性行情背后，是供需格局、资金流向与政策预期的多重作用。 供需失衡与市场流动性紧张，是白银价格领涨的核心动力 10月份市场出现历史性轧空行情后，白银供应紧张局面持续，进一步放大价格上涨动能。交易端数据显示，本月初上海白银期货总成交量大幅攀 升，接近此前供应紧张时期的高位水平，反映出市场对白银的关注度与交易活跃度明显提升。白银需求端持续激增，主要交易中心出现供需错 位，供需缺口对价格上涨形成支撑。 宽松货币政策预期升温，为贵金属市场注入活力 市场对全球主要经济体货币政策宽松的预期不断强化，交易员普遍押注核心经济体明年实施两次降息。对于黄金、白银这类无利息收益资产，宽 松货币环境下持有成本降低，吸引力相应提升。近期公布的系列经济数据未明确经济前景，市场对政策宽松的预期已转化为实际买盘，推动贵金 属价格稳步走高。 大规模资金持续流入，是贵金属价格上 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structurally differentiated pattern last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.03%. However, growth sectors faced significant pullbacks, with the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and ChiNext 50 down by 2.26%, 2.99%, and 2.66% respectively, indicating pressure on high-growth tracks [2][10] - The market style continued to shift towards value, as evidenced by the CSI Dividend Index rising by 1.04%, while broad indices like CSI 300 and CSI 1000 also experienced slight declines [2] - The Wande Micro-Pan Index surged by 2.99%, reflecting a temporary preference for small-cap stocks [2] Industry Performance - The A-share market's primary sectors showed a split performance, with Consumer and Financial sectors leading gains, while Technology and Industrial sectors faced declines. Daily Consumer stocks rose by 2.26% and Financials by 2.06%, benefiting from policy expectations and high dividend attractiveness. Conversely, Information Technology fell by 2.08% and Industrial by 1.22%, impacted by valuation adjustments and overseas tech stock correlations [2][10] Fund Issuance - A total of 34 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 11 mixed funds, 6 bond funds, and 3 FOFs, with a total issuance volume of 18.321 billion units [15] Fund Performance - The Wande All-Fund Index decreased by 0.25% last week. The Wande Ordinary Equity Fund Index and the Wande Equity Mixed Fund Index both fell by 0.61%, while the Wande Bond Fund Index saw a slight increase of 0.09% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar are stable, but the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.24% daily decrease, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened significantly, the industrial pattern has not improved, and the inventory at a high level has limited reduction. Prices continue to face pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated strongly with a 0.52% daily increase, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the supply remains high. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good, and ore prices are under pressure at high levels. However, the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved, providing support for ore prices. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range. Be wary of the trading logic switching to the reality [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In November, the national average construction machinery utilization rate was 46.95%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39 percentage points, and the workload increased by 10.03% month - on - month. The top ten provinces in terms of comprehensive utilization rate are Anhui, Zhejiang, Hainan, Jiangxi, Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning, Henan, Shanxi and Ningxia. 19 provinces had a utilization rate of over 50% [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association expects the terminal consumption market in December to show a moderate recovery, but it is difficult to form a significant "year - end surge" market. The full - month passenger car terminal sales in December are expected to be about 2.35 million, and the full - year passenger car terminal retail sales in 2025 are expected to reach 23.55 million, basically the same as in 2024 [8]. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited completed a private placement financing of approximately $17 million to support the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. After the financing, the company achieved a debt - free state, and its balance sheet was further improved [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,170 and 3,325 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,180 and 3,296 respectively; the price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100. The price changes of different varieties are also provided [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,119 with a 0.00% change, the trading volume is 686,113 with a decrease of 529,436, and the open interest is 1,568,866 with a decrease of 7,077. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,269 with a - 0.24% change, the trading volume is 279,994 with a decrease of 306,133, and the open interest is 1,191,178 with an increase of 1,622. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 780.0 with a 0.52% change, the trading volume is 187,722 with a decrease of 134,655, and the open interest is 534,905 with an increase of 16,750 [12]. Relevant Charts - Charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory, etc.), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][28] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are stable, inventory is well - depleted, production of construction steel mills is stable, weekly production increased by 29,000 tons, but short - process steel mill profits are improving, and supply is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and rebar prices are under pressure. With policy expectations, rebar will continue to oscillate [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand continue to weaken, weekly production decreased by 168,000 tons, inventory is high, and demand continues to decline. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom with policy expectations [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak, terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and supply remains high. Ore prices are under pressure, but the structural contradiction in the spot market provides support. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range [38].