Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects the growth rate of social financing (社融) to remain stable in the second quarter, driven by low base effects from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] Social Financing - In April, the growth rate of social financing continued to rise, primarily due to the low base from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] - The net financing amount of government bonds in April last year was the lowest since the inclusion of government bonds in social financing statistics [1] - April is typically a small month for social financing and credit, necessitating further observation to determine financing demand [1] Credit Market - Credit rhythm experienced a temporary decline due to pre-quarter lending and the traditional small month for credit [1] - Demand for certain types of loans, particularly mortgages, weakened, compounded by external tariff factors affecting corporate financing needs [1] Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate weakened again and fell below market expectations, indicating that consumer spending and corporate investment willingness have not significantly improved [1] - The private sector's motivation to increase leverage remains weak, suggesting a need for further policy guidance [1] Future Outlook - Despite the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, the combination of a loose monetary environment and accelerated fiscal efforts is expected to support stable growth in social financing in the second quarter [1]

Economic Overview - As of the end of April, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) stock rebounded to 8.7%, while the credit growth rate under the social financing measure fell to 7.1%[3] - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB, with RMB loans increasing by 280 billion RMB[5] Government Support - Government bonds continue to support the year-on-year increase in social financing, with new government bonds issued in April totaling 980 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 trillion RMB[9] - The issuance of replacement bonds in April approached 260 billion RMB, indicating that corporate medium-to-long-term loans also experienced a year-on-year increase when considering this factor[5] Future Projections - Despite potential pressure on credit due to tariff impacts, social financing and credit growth are expected to fluctuate upwards, with a possibility of the annual peak returning to over 9%[3] - The upcoming months may see improved macroeconomic data, particularly if progress is made in US-China tariff negotiations[5] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tools - The regulatory body has deployed the first round of monetary policy tools to stabilize growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic stability amid international trade tensions[6] - A robust monetary and fiscal toolbox is available, including further reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and accelerated issuance of government bonds[6] Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially leading to weaker credit growth and social financing stock growth[31] - Uncertainties remain regarding the final implementation of tariff policies between China and the US, which could impact domestic economic conditions[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase is characterized by a concentrated rollout of stable growth policies, with expansive monetary policy leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. The acceleration of local government debt issuance is expected to have a profound impact on the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025. Enhanced fiscal policy is anticipated to support social financing and boost economic expectations, benefiting cyclical sectors. Although the broad interest rate environment is expected to exert short-term pressure on banks' net interest margins, the concentration of high-interest deposits entering a repricing cycle, along with ongoing regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation, will provide significant support for banks' interest margins in 2025. This year is also projected to be crucial for solidifying banks' asset quality, with policy support likely to improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties, and certain personal loan products that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may see a turning point in asset quality [3][28]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In April 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, amounting to an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the previous year. The main contributors to this growth were government bonds, which increased by 1.0699 trillion yuan, and corporate direct financing, which rose by 83.9 billion yuan [9][12][13]. Loan Growth Trends - The loan growth rate in April 2025 was 7.2% year-on-year, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2 percentage points. The total new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion yuan, which is 450 billion yuan less than the previous year. The demand for loans from households is still expected to take time to improve, with short-term loans decreasing by 50.1 billion yuan year-on-year [19][20]. M2 Growth Dynamics - In April 2025, M2 grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point. The significant rise in M2 is attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, while M1 growth remained stagnant. The total new RMB deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan, with household and corporate deposits dropping by 460 billion yuan and 542.8 billion yuan, respectively [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend and core index-weighted banks, including Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Merchants Bank (600036), and Industrial Bank (601166) [10][29]. 2. Regional banks with strong fundamentals, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077), Chongqing Bank (601963), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Qingdao Bank (002948), and Shanghai Bank (601229) [10][29].

报告类型 股指日评 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 海外方面，美联储宣布维持利率不变，并在政策声明中表示关税正在引发失 业率和通胀率上升的风险。国内方面，5 月 7 日，方决定同意与美方进行接触， 随后，在国新办新闻发布会上，央行推出一揽子措施，主要包括利率调整（降准、 降息、降公积金贷款利率等）与特定投向的流动性支持工具（增加 3000 亿元科技 创新和技术改造再贷款额度、设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"、增加支 农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元），此外，继续对稳定资本市场进行资金支持（将证 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report Group 2: Report's Core View - The report predicts that in April 2025, new loans will reach 800 billion yuan, and social financing will be 1.5 trillion yuan. By the end of April, M2 will reach 323.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; M1 (new caliber) will have a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; and the social financing growth rate will be 8.8% [2]. - Throughout the year, new loans are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of around 8.3% [3]. - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. High - tariff shocks are expected to cause the economic growth rate to decline in the second quarter, but the decline may be better than the bond market's expectations. The bond market should focus on the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is recommended to conduct credit risk - taking to obtain coupons, and there may be no trend - based opportunities in the bond market in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In April, new loans may increase slightly year - on - year. It is estimated that new loans in April will be 800 billion yuan, with individual loans decreasing by 10 billion yuan, corporate credit increasing by 70 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans increasing by 20 billion yuan [3]. - Due to the weak new loans in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2024, new loans in the next few quarters may increase year - on - year [3]. M1 and M2 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to rebound in April, and the M2 growth rate will rise slightly. The new - caliber M1 growth rate in April is expected to be 2.1%, with a month - on - month increase; the old - caliber M1 growth rate is - 0.2%, also with a month - on - month increase. The M2 growth rate in April is expected to be 7.4%, showing a slight increase [3]. Social Financing - The social financing growth rate may rebound significantly in April. It is predicted that the social financing increment in April will be 1.5 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase, mainly from credit, government bonds, and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of April is expected to be 8.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [3]. Bond Market - The bond market may fluctuate in Q2. If an agreement is reached between China and the US to reduce tariffs to the beginning - of - the - year level in the next six months, the high point of the 10 - year treasury bond yield this year may still reach 1.9%, and the economy in 2025 is still expected to stabilize. Since tariff negotiations are difficult and may not succeed in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate in the second quarter [3].

文 ｜ 杨帆 明明 肖斐斐 玛西高娃 章立聪 彭博 王希明 林楠 史雨洁 政府债方面，2 0 2 5年3月政府债净融资额为1 . 5万亿元，实现同比多增1 . 0万亿元，是3月社融增速 的第一大支撑项。今年3月的新增专项债和特殊再融资债分别发行了4 3 7 5亿元和3 8 3 0亿元，合计 为0 . 8 2万亿元，较去年同期超出5 1 2 5亿元，是今年3月政府债同比多增的主要原因。 信贷方面，3月社融口径下的新增人民币贷款为3 . 8 3万亿元，同比多增5 3 5 8亿元，是社融增长的 第二大支撑项。3月下旬票据转贴现利率走高，3月末1个月期的转贴现利率达到2 . 1%，或已反映 信贷投放情况较好。 企业债方面，3月新增企业债融资- 9 0 5亿元，同比少增5 1 4 2亿元，结束连续四个月的同比多增良 好势头。3月份1Y、3Y和1 0Y品种的AAA企业债利率均值分别较2月上行1 3 . 0 b p s、1 6 . 0 b p s和 2 3 . 9 b p s，近期债券利率上行较多，可能导致企业发债意愿下降，部分企业或转向贷款融资。 社融方面，3月社融增速小幅回升，主要受政府债发行提速与信贷需求修复带动。其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data forecast indicates that the increase in RMB loans in February is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a slight improvement in social financing growth to around 8.2% [1][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - In February 2025, the central bank maintained a tight liquidity environment, with a net liquidity injection of 322.7 billion yuan through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The policy interest rates remained unchanged, but a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance is expected to continue, with potential for structural rate cuts depending on economic conditions [2]. - The government bond issuance in February reached a net issuance of 1.7 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's level, indicating a robust fiscal stance [3][4]. Group 2: Credit and Financing - Credit growth in February is anticipated to be relatively low due to the consumption of credit reserves from January's concentrated lending, with an expected loan increment of over 1 trillion yuan [4]. - Social financing growth is projected to improve slightly to around 8.2%, supported by increased government bond issuance [4]. - The credit environment in 2025 is expected to show a "two ends low, middle high" pattern, with a potential end to the downward trend in social financing growth [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to improve slightly in March, but the overall conditions may remain tight due to increased local government bond issuance [5]. - The investment strategy suggests that fiscal factors will support credit expansion, with a focus on bank stocks that offer stable returns and strong asset quality [8][9]. - The commercial model reassessment logic is seen as a core issue for bank valuation improvement, emphasizing the selection of stocks with stable performance and low valuation volatility [9].

Fixed Income - The forecast for February 2025 predicts new loans of 1 trillion yuan and social financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, with M2 reaching 320.6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2][10] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.3%, with a potential recovery in the growth rate later in the year [11][12] - The report anticipates a stable economic outlook for 2025, with a possible small rebound in 2026, and predicts the 10Y/30Y government bond yields to peak at 1.9%/2.2% in 2025 [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) - Kelun Pharmaceutical is recognized as a successful representative of the transition from generic to innovative drugs, with a cumulative R&D investment of nearly 11.9 billion yuan from 2014 to 2023 [14][15] - The company has entered the global market for innovative drugs, with significant potential for future growth, particularly through its ADC research platform and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [16] - The antibiotic intermediate sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, while the intravenous infusion market is projected to grow steadily due to aging demographics [17][18] Public Utilities - China Resources Gas (01193.HK) - China Resources Gas is positioned as a leading city gas provider, focusing on projects in first- and second-tier cities, benefiting from its strategic location [21][22] - The company has reduced its reliance on connection services, with growth in comprehensive services and energy solutions supporting its profitability [23] - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating strong financial health and potential for dividend growth [24][25] New Energy - Mingyang Technology (837663.BJ) - Mingyang Technology is identified as a national-level specialized manufacturer in automotive seat components, with an expected net profit growth of 18.66% in 2024 [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected increase in the value of seat components [29] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the assembly business, which is expected to become a significant revenue driver [30][31] New Consumption - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel focuses on casual and children's clothing, with its brands ranking among the top in their respective markets [34][35] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and product appeal through strategic partnerships and brand collaborations, leading to improved profit margins [35] - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by a strong market position and multi-brand strategy [36] New Consumption - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market, with a market share exceeding 73% in 2023 [38][39] - The growth of the RTD market is driven by expanding consumer demographics and innovative product offerings [40] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership and continue to grow its net profit from 2024 to 2026 [41]