随着中美关税谈判缓和，避险情绪降温，金价进入高位盘整阶段。 多家基金公司表示，由关税升级导致的黄金飙涨行情已经告一段落，但中长期全球博弈格局也决定了其难以大 幅调整，去美元化的趋势和地缘冲突避险的需求仍然对黄金构成长期支撑。 黄金交易情绪有所收敛 近期，黄金走出了一段"过山车"行情，在4月22日之前的短短8个交易日之内，COMEX黄金暴涨430美元，涨幅 近15%，随即在突破3500美元大关后大幅跳水，回撤近9%后，最新价格维持在3200美元/盎司上方。 金价下跌，也导致此前交易火热的黄金股陷入动荡，其中，赤峰黄金、山金国际等龙头自高位回撤超20%，中 金黄金、山东黄金等黄金股也有超15%的回撤。 华安基金认为，这一轮4月关税升级导致的黄金行情飙升，随着4月23日以来的关税缓和信号而告一段落，前期 黄金过热的行情也得到了一轮健康修正。 "其实从4月23日以来，我们已经捕捉到市场风险偏好改善迹象，当时美国领导人提出无意解雇美联储主席，且 美国财政部提出贸易僵局不具备可持续性，未来将出现降温。这一节奏也较好应对了自4月22日高点以来的黄 金回调行情。"华安基金表示。 中金公司则提醒，欧美市场的不确定性交易已明显降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest consumer confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 50.8, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and indicating a growing pessimism about the economy and personal financial situations among consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index has decreased for five consecutive months, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment [1][4]. - The index has fallen approximately 30% since January 2025, attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][11]. - The current economic conditions index stands at 57.6, down 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the expectations index is at 46.5, down 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is facing rising inflation and unemployment, with Federal Reserve officials warning of potential economic stagnation [6][12]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a GDP contraction of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth in three years, which, combined with low consumer confidence, suggests a challenging economic environment [16]. - Retail giants like Walmart are planning to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs, indicating that consumers may soon experience higher prices [15]. Group 3: Implications of Economic Trends - The combination of high unemployment, rising inflation, and slowing economic growth aligns with the definition of stagflation, a scenario that the U.S. may be approaching [14]. - The Federal Reserve's warnings about inflation volatility and the potential for prolonged supply shocks present significant challenges for the economy and monetary policy [10][12]. - Consumers are advised to increase savings and manage high-interest debt in anticipation of potential economic difficulties, which could further diminish consumer spending and accelerate the decline of the "consumer myth" [18][19].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 1%, while inflation expectations have risen from 2.5% to 4.5%[1] - In Q1 2023, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%[1] - China's exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April 2023[14] Group 2: Future Scenarios of US-China Tariff Negotiations - Optimistic scenario: The US may cancel the suspended 24% tariff, retaining a 10% tariff, leading to a total tariff rate of 30%-50% by 2025[2] - Baseline scenario: If negotiations fail, the US could impose a total tariff rate of approximately 74% by 2025, with an additional 54% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - Pessimistic scenario: The US may reimpose the 24% tariff and increase tariffs further if economic conditions allow, with potential retaliatory measures from China[3] Group 3: US Motivations for Negotiation - The US is under pressure from rising inflation and economic stagnation, prompting a willingness to negotiate tariffs[14] - Strong discontent from the US business community regarding tariffs has influenced the US administration's approach to negotiations[15] - China's non-tariff measures, particularly in rare earth exports, have significantly impacted US negotiations[15] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China may adopt a "genuine negotiation" approach, where it could agree to certain conditions while leveraging non-tariff measures[3] - Alternatively, if the US is not sincere, China should maintain a firm stance and focus on expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships[3] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and oppose unilateral actions from the US[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks reached important consensus, which will have a significant impact on the global economic situation and market sentiment [1]. - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects concerns about economic prospects, unemployment, and inflation, posing uncertainties to the market [1][3]. - China's continuous release of policy incentives demonstrates its determination and ability to address economic pressures, adding stability to the global economy [1]. - For major investment varieties: - Crude oil prices are expected to be affected by trade agreements and supply - demand dynamics, with attention on sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold may enter a correction phase in the short - term but remains strong overall due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand [3][20]. - Stock index futures are likely to break upward due to policy incentives and low valuation levels, and option strategies can be used to capture trends [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [6]. - **Domestic News**: 27 Chinese cities had a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and most of them had a GDP growth rate of over 5.4% in Q1 [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The table shows the daily returns of various overseas market products from May 8th to May 9th, including the US S&P 500, German DAX Index, etc., with specific price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices fell slightly. The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. Policy incentives and Sino - US tariff negotiations are expected to boost the market, and stock index futures are bullish, while option strategies can be used [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut increased market liquidity. External factors and seasonal changes affected the economy. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones may fluctuate more [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose due to the "breakthrough" in the UK - US trade agreement. China's crude oil imports increased slightly, and the number of US online drilling oil wells decreased [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, while the overall methanol plant's开工 rate increased. Coastal inventory was at a low level, and imports were expected to increase. Methanol is short - term bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber's trend was volatile. Domestic and Thai rubber production areas were opening for harvest. Inventory was increasing, and tariff policies affected the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market was weak. Consumption declined, but cost fluctuations provided some support. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of Sino - US talks [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures were weak. Their inventories were under pressure, and the de - stocking process would take time [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell after rising due to the easing of tariffs. The Fed's wait - and - see attitude and economic data were key factors. Gold may enter a correction but remains strong overall [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable downstream demand affected the market. Copper prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and exchange rates [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Processing fees increased, and domestic demand was stable. The market expected better supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. Overseas tariff policies were unstable, and domestic monetary policy was loose. The market was expected to be weakly volatile [23]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose at night. Tight supply in Indonesia and tariff policies affected prices. Nickel prices may fluctuate in a wide range [24][25]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The cost of coking coal decreased, and the supply increased. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and there was an expectation of a price cut. Attention should be paid to support levels [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weakly volatile at night, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. Supply and demand dynamics and Sino - US relations affected the market [27]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal prices were weak at night. US soybean exports were under pressure, and domestic supply was expected to increase [28]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week. High prices squeezed profits, and there was an expectation of reserve auctions. The market entered a shock phase [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton demand was weak after the May Day holiday. New cotton planting in Xinjiang was basically completed. The market was in a shock phase, waiting for new demand channels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell on Friday. SCFI European line prices decreased. Supply was excessive, and the market was expected to be in a shock pattern [31][32].

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached its first trade agreement with the UK since initiating a tariff war, which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access for products [1][2] - The agreement is described as lacking substantial details and is more of a framework than a complete trade deal, with further negotiations required to finalize specific terms [4][6] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to 10%, while cars exceeding this number will still incur a 25% tariff [2] - The UK government announced $5 billion in new export opportunities for U.S. farmers and producers, including over $700 million in ethanol exports and $250 million in beef exports, with tariffs on U.S. ethanol exports to the UK reduced to zero [2] - A new trade alliance for steel and aluminum products has been established, with the UK stating that steel exports to the U.S. will no longer face tariffs [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the agreement, the previously announced 10% baseline tariff will remain in effect, indicating limited immediate economic relief [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the agreement does not significantly impact economic growth or address the initial goals of increasing U.S. fiscal revenue or promoting manufacturing return [7] - The overall trade relationship between the U.S. and UK is primarily focused on the services sector, which is not affected by tariffs, leaving the UK economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties [7] Group 3: Political Context - The urgency to announce the agreement reflects internal pressures within the Trump administration to demonstrate progress before potential economic downturns [4][5] - The UK government, post-Brexit, is also in need of trade agreements to solidify its political standing and achieve tangible results [5] - Following this agreement, the Trump administration has indicated that more trade agreements are forthcoming, although specifics remain to be seen [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 滞与胀谁先到来？ ——2025 年 5 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月议息会议上美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明调整主要聚焦于关税政 策导致的变化。综合议息会议声明和鲍威尔会后发言看，在看到关税政策对美国经济的显著冲 击前，美联储按兵不动是大概率事件。因此，降息与否的关键还是在于经济的变化。短期内， 关税政策对于就业和通胀的影响或仅能缓慢体现，难以快速推动美联储采取进一步行动。中长 期内，贸易谈判结果与美国国内减税、放松监管等政策的配合推行情况是决定关税政策对经济 影响的关键。滞与胀谁先到来，将在很大程度上决定美联储的下一步决策。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 [Table_Title 滞与胀谁先到来？ 2] ——2025 年 5 月美联储议息会议点评 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京时间 2025 年 5 月 8 日凌晨，美联储 5 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing a dilemma of slowing growth and inflationary pressures, which is challenging the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [1] - The aggressive trade protectionism initiated by the Trump administration is creating a triple policy conflict, impacting inflation, investment confidence, and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [3] Economic Conditions - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield premium has risen significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the federal funds rate by 135 basis points, the highest level since 2019, indicating investor compensation for policy uncertainty [3] - The market is showing caution towards U.S. dollar assets, as evidenced by the weakest demand for 30-year Treasury auctions since March 2020 [3] Dollar Dynamics - The dollar is facing dual pressures: a trend towards "de-dollarization" and a loss of credibility in the Federal Reserve's policies, leading to expectations of continued depreciation of the dollar index by 2025 [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is becoming increasingly complex, with market expectations for a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting underlying economic contradictions [4] Policy Challenges - The ultimate test of policy decisions is approaching, as third-quarter economic data may confirm the negative impact of trade tensions on consumption and investment, forcing the Federal Reserve to choose between maintaining restrictive rates or succumbing to political pressure for rate cuts [5] - The uncertainty surrounding these policy decisions is becoming a new source of market volatility, with the correlation between the VIX fear index and the dollar index reaching its highest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [5]

所以，对于特朗普接下来的行动，我们完全不必着急。我们大不了苦上两个月三个月，美国可就不一样了。特朗普这么一闹，出来反对他的，从民主党到未 来很多共和党人都会反对。因为共和党原本的 5 个铁盘州，都快倒向民主党了，这影响非常大。他一上台，搞崩了美股市场，整个美股蒸发了 4 万亿美元市 值。现在美国底层老百姓因物价问题压力山大，从有钱人到没钱人，都被他得罪光了。以后谁还支持共和党，支持特朗普？他之前画的那些大饼，说要让制 造业回流，关税折腾了这么久，有哪家跨国公司愿意把工厂搬到美国？没有，因为开公司的都知道，供应链不是一天能建立起来的，而是历经多年形成，且 供应链非常复杂，地区人才优势的形成也非一朝一夕之功。 特朗普任期仅四年，却搞出这么大动静。若这些举措真能见效，起码得十年以上。但十年之后，若持续如此，美国经济还能撑得住吗？不出意外，今年美国 经济就将面临滞胀风险，而且这次是人为造成的滞胀。美国本来有经济硬着陆风险，本可通过经济手段调整，可特朗普却直接让美国经济硬着陆。 特朗普执政 100 天，真的创造了一个历史记录，基本上把该得罪的、不该得罪的都得罪光了。你以为他只是得罪中国吗？并非如此，他得罪更多的是美国内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US GDP growth rate turned negative in Q1 2025, with the annualized quarterly-on-quarter initial value at -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Tariffs increased economic volatility, and the surge in imports due to enterprises stockpiling ahead of time dragged down the economic growth rate. As tariffs are implemented, enterprises' investment willingness weakens, and they need to digest inventory. Meanwhile, the consumption momentum of the household sector has significantly weakened, putting further downward pressure on the economy. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has slightly increased, with the probability of a rate cut in June expected to rise to 64.2% [3][4] - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations and is insensitive to fundamental data. In the long term, the de - globalization under tariffs is hard to reverse, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate. Without further progress in tax cuts and interest rate cuts, the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q1 GDP Growth Rate Turns Negative, Tariffs Increase Economic Volatility - **GDP Data**: The annualized quarterly - on - quarter initial value of US Q1 GDP was -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Net exports dragged down the economic growth rate by 4.83%, with the import sub - item contributing -5.03%. Personal consumption expenditure grew at 1.8%, government expenditure at -1.4%, private investment at 21.9%, and imports at 41.3%. The core PCE price index rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%, higher than expected [3][8] - **Contribution to GDP Growth**: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government expenditure contributed 1.21%, 1.34%, 2.25%, -4.83%, and -0.25% respectively to the -0.3% GDP growth [3][16] - **Consumption**: Service consumption remained resilient, while commodity consumption declined significantly. The growth rate of commodity consumption dropped from 6.2% in Q1 to 0.5%, with durable and non - durable goods growing at -3.4% and 2.7% respectively. Service consumption was only weak in the accommodation and food sub - item [23] - **Investment**: Private investment increased by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized, the highest since 2022. Equipment investment grew by 22.5%, mainly due to enterprises advancing equipment investment to avoid future tariff pressure and government regulations on the technology industry. Inventory also increased significantly due to pre - tariff stockpiling. However, long - term capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness [24] - **Government Expenditure**: The growth rate of government expenditure dropped to -1.4% in Q1, and the government's role in boosting the economy weakened due to debt ceiling, fiscal budget constraints, and the intervention of Trump's new government efficiency department [26] - **Inflation**: Inflation continued to rise in Q1. The GDP deflator rose to 3.7%, the PCE price index rebounded from 2.4% to 3.6%, and the core PCE rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%. The process of inflation decline may be slower under tariff shocks [26] 2. Investment Advice - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations. After the news that the US wants to negotiate tariffs with China, the market's risk appetite has recovered. Gold has a correction space due to crowded long - positions, the US stock market is expected to be weak and oscillating after reaching the resistance level, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields will oscillate. In the long term, the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate, and the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5][30]