6月4日，美元指数下跌0.47%，跌破99的整数关口，收于98.8128。今年以来美元指数下跌8.90%，从4月初特朗普 实施对等关税谈判，到目前为止两个月美元指数下跌达4.59%。 美元的下跌可能不仅仅是降息预期，而是美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性更大。 现在关键的问题是，ADP的就业人数是就业市场的暂时性波动，还是更深层经济增长放缓缓的前兆，周五将发布 非农数据。如果非农数据证实就业疲软的趋势，美联储可能面临更大的政策调整压力，而市场对经济衰退的担忧 也将进一步加剧。 冉学东 6月4日，美国5月ADP就业人数增加3.7万人，为自2023年3月以来的最低水平，远逊预期的11.4万人，前值为6.2万 人。是自2022年8月以来最大的预期落空。 数据公布后，特朗普马上来凑热闹，因为这个数据正好支持他的一贯观点：ADP报告出来了！！"太迟先生"鲍威 尔现在必须降低利率。他令人难以置信！！欧洲已经降息九次！" ADP就业数据是美国自动数据处理公司定期发布的就业人数数据，主要反映的是私营企业的就业情况，不包括政 府机构，是判断美国宏观经济发展的重要指标。 同日发布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务业PMI意外跌至49.9，跌破 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 特朗普关税再度施压，美元短期走弱 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.4%。美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.45%，欧元跌 0.14%，英镑跌 0.58%，日元 跌 1.02%，瑞郎跌 0.16%，雷亚尔、韩元、比索跌超 1%，澳 元、兰特、泰铢、林吉特、新西兰元收跌。金价跌 2%至 3289 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 18.6，现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 2.5%至 63.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 股市情绪受到特朗普政府关税政策的扰动，先是美国国际贸易 法院阻止"解放日"关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为 由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行 为，股市情绪一度被提振。但随后联邦上诉法院暂停一项阻止 特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，美国继续对外加征关税，美国与 欧盟、日本等其他国家的贸易谈判也在继续推进，仍然牵动市 场神经。特朗普也再度施压中国，表示谈判目前停滞状态，并 将对外的钢铁等关税提升至 50%。美联储 5 月利率会议纪要显 示经济面 ...

从多周期分析，首先观察月线节奏，价格前期是三个月上涨后出现单月修正，近期属于四个月上涨出现单月修正，所以按照节奏上看已经出现四 连阳，对于目前五月份就要重点注意市场风险。从周线级别来分析，黄金价格受撑于3160区域的支撑位。那么从中线角度来看，我们可以持续保 持看多的观点，价格下跌仅作为中期上涨中的修正，价格只有下破周线支撑才会进一步承压。从日线级别观察，目前日线级别支撑于3278区域， 此位置作为黄金波段走势的关键，由于前期价格突破后昨日探底回升，目前暂时日线支撑区域如若出现反K信号可以继续看上涨，但是后续需要 上破前期下跌趋势线才会真正打开空间。从四小时级别看，暂时需要关注3295区域支撑，此位置决定短线走势的强弱，由于整体上大幅扫荡，我 们可以结合时间点及四小时、日线支撑表现跟随布局，保守者今日观望即可，待市场行情明了后再布局。 黄金 黄金方面，周四黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3330位置，最低下跌至3245位置，收盘于3317位置。针对周四黄金在早盘期 间价格先延续性下跌，之后再测试到近期上涨回撤的50%位置后向上反弹，从位置上看价格突破早盘高点位置则就不是极弱，早盘高点位置刚好 也 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Precious Metals Monthly Report - Date: May 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its extremely high price - to - earnings ratio mean that the price volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [5][39] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 January - May Precious Metals Trend Review - After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of rise and returned to the medium - term upward channel since March 2024 at the end of January 2025. On April 3, 2025, London gold set a new record of $3,168 per ounce. Subsequently, due to various factors such as trade policies and market sentiment, the gold price fluctuated greatly, reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce and then adjusting to the range of $3,200 - $3,360 per ounce [7] - As of 2025, London gold and silver have risen by 25.8% and 15.1% respectively, and Shanghai gold and silver futures indices have risen by 24.9% and 10.1% respectively. Gold has a strong negative correlation with the US dollar exchange rate and crude oil, a weakened positive correlation with silver, and its correlation with the real yield of US Treasury bonds has changed from negative to positive [9] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 US Employment and Inflation Double Risks - Trump's radical domestic and foreign reforms have disrupted the normal economic and social order in the US. In the first quarter of 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, while the GDP deflator increased by 3.74%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates that the US real GDP will grow by 2.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025 [11][13] - In May 2025, the 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 7.3%, the 5 - year inflation expectation rose to 4.6%, and consumer confidence fell to 50.8%. In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs. The inflation growth rate has been at a relatively low level recently, and the inflation pressure in the second half of 2025 is not expected to rise significantly [13][14][17] 2.2 Cooling of Sino - US Tense Trade Situation - On May 8, the US and the UK reached an economic prosperity agreement. The tariff measures include mutual tariff cuts on certain products. The US - China trade situation has cooled down, with both sides reducing tariff rates. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions were illegal, and the Trump administration has decided to appeal [21][23][24] - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate and balance - sheet reduction unchanged in May 2025. The Fed's interest - rate policy this year depends on the overall economic situation, employment market, and inflation. The possibility of a rate cut is much higher than that of a rate hike [25] 2.4 Weak Operation of the US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield has fluctuated, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range with a core fluctuation range of 4 - 5%. The US dollar index is expected to first decline and then rise within the range of 95 - 107. The RMB exchange rate is generally bullish, with the RMB - US dollar exchange rate expected to first rise and then fall, with a core fluctuation range of 7.1 - 7.5 [28][31] 2.4 Gold Supply - Demand and Market Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.2% compared with the low point in May 2024, while the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 5% compared with the high point in October 2024. As of the week of May 20, 2025, the net long ratio of gold funds decreased to 20.9%, and that of silver funds rose to 28.6% [32][35] 3. Precious Metals Price Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade, currency system will continue to push up the gold price's volatility center. In the medium - term, the risks of US economic stagflation and global economic recession have increased, boosting the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. In the short - term, the gold price has maintained a medium - term upward trend despite fluctuations [36]

Group 1 - The dollar index rose by 0.35% to close at 99.874, driven by investor buying at the end of the month, with the exception of the Swiss franc [1] - Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, noted that Trump's tariff threats against the EU reversed quickly, boosting market risk appetite and reducing negative views on U.S. economic growth, which supported the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that officials acknowledged the rising risks of economic recession due to increasing inflation and unemployment, suggesting potential challenges in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, with concerns that a significant rise in PCE could exacerbate worries about economic stagflation, potentially impacting the dollar negatively [2] - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was trading at 1.1294 USD, down from 1.1337 USD the previous day, while the pound was at 1.3470 USD, down from 1.3511 USD [2] - The dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen, trading at 144.84 JPY, up from 144.26 JPY, and against the Canadian dollar at 1.3830 CAD, up from 1.3795 CAD [2]

"当收益率上升与经济增长强劲挂钩时，股市尚可消化，"瑞士宝盛股票策略主管马蒂厄·拉赫特指出，"但若由通胀恐惧或财政忧虑驱动利率走高，则往往会 削弱股票估值。" 智通财经APP注意到，在特朗普总统的税改法案以微弱优势通过众议院后，美国长期国债和股指期货重返跌势。 30年期国债收益率逼近5.14%，距离金融危机时期高点仅一步之遥。标普500指数期货下跌0.3%，预示该基准指数可能连续第三日收跌。美元汇率震荡波 动，比特币则继续刷新历史高位。原油价格回落。 美国立法者推进的这项涉及数万亿美元的庞大法案，虽避免了年终增税，却以加重联邦债务负担为代价。 此前穆迪评级下调已将不断膨胀的财政赤字问题推向风口浪尖。这种担忧体现在国债市场上——就在标普500指数反弹至牛市边缘之际，债市情绪再度受 挫。 花旗集团策略师贝娅塔·曼特在接受采访时表示，"债券义警卷土重来，""市场正在担忧债务可持续性。考虑到股市刚刚出现的强劲反弹，这种局面相当不 利。" 周四，10年期美债收益率上升1个基点至4.61%。债市担忧在于，当投资者对美国资产的兴趣减弱时，该税法案将使本已庞大的赤字再增数万亿美元。 策略师马克·克兰菲尔德分析称，法案通过虽不 ...

随着中美关税谈判缓和，避险情绪降温，金价进入高位盘整阶段。 多家基金公司表示，由关税升级导致的黄金飙涨行情已经告一段落，但中长期全球博弈格局也决定了其难以大 幅调整，去美元化的趋势和地缘冲突避险的需求仍然对黄金构成长期支撑。 黄金交易情绪有所收敛 近期，黄金走出了一段"过山车"行情，在4月22日之前的短短8个交易日之内，COMEX黄金暴涨430美元，涨幅 近15%，随即在突破3500美元大关后大幅跳水，回撤近9%后，最新价格维持在3200美元/盎司上方。 金价下跌，也导致此前交易火热的黄金股陷入动荡，其中，赤峰黄金、山金国际等龙头自高位回撤超20%，中 金黄金、山东黄金等黄金股也有超15%的回撤。 华安基金认为，这一轮4月关税升级导致的黄金行情飙升，随着4月23日以来的关税缓和信号而告一段落，前期 黄金过热的行情也得到了一轮健康修正。 "其实从4月23日以来，我们已经捕捉到市场风险偏好改善迹象，当时美国领导人提出无意解雇美联储主席，且 美国财政部提出贸易僵局不具备可持续性，未来将出现降温。这一节奏也较好应对了自4月22日高点以来的黄 金回调行情。"华安基金表示。 中金公司则提醒，欧美市场的不确定性交易已明显降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest consumer confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 50.8, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and indicating a growing pessimism about the economy and personal financial situations among consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index has decreased for five consecutive months, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment [1][4]. - The index has fallen approximately 30% since January 2025, attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][11]. - The current economic conditions index stands at 57.6, down 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the expectations index is at 46.5, down 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is facing rising inflation and unemployment, with Federal Reserve officials warning of potential economic stagnation [6][12]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a GDP contraction of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth in three years, which, combined with low consumer confidence, suggests a challenging economic environment [16]. - Retail giants like Walmart are planning to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs, indicating that consumers may soon experience higher prices [15]. Group 3: Implications of Economic Trends - The combination of high unemployment, rising inflation, and slowing economic growth aligns with the definition of stagflation, a scenario that the U.S. may be approaching [14]. - The Federal Reserve's warnings about inflation volatility and the potential for prolonged supply shocks present significant challenges for the economy and monetary policy [10][12]. - Consumers are advised to increase savings and manage high-interest debt in anticipation of potential economic difficulties, which could further diminish consumer spending and accelerate the decline of the "consumer myth" [18][19].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 1%, while inflation expectations have risen from 2.5% to 4.5%[1] - In Q1 2023, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%[1] - China's exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April 2023[14] Group 2: Future Scenarios of US-China Tariff Negotiations - Optimistic scenario: The US may cancel the suspended 24% tariff, retaining a 10% tariff, leading to a total tariff rate of 30%-50% by 2025[2] - Baseline scenario: If negotiations fail, the US could impose a total tariff rate of approximately 74% by 2025, with an additional 54% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - Pessimistic scenario: The US may reimpose the 24% tariff and increase tariffs further if economic conditions allow, with potential retaliatory measures from China[3] Group 3: US Motivations for Negotiation - The US is under pressure from rising inflation and economic stagnation, prompting a willingness to negotiate tariffs[14] - Strong discontent from the US business community regarding tariffs has influenced the US administration's approach to negotiations[15] - China's non-tariff measures, particularly in rare earth exports, have significantly impacted US negotiations[15] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China may adopt a "genuine negotiation" approach, where it could agree to certain conditions while leveraging non-tariff measures[3] - Alternatively, if the US is not sincere, China should maintain a firm stance and focus on expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships[3] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and oppose unilateral actions from the US[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks reached important consensus, which will have a significant impact on the global economic situation and market sentiment [1]. - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects concerns about economic prospects, unemployment, and inflation, posing uncertainties to the market [1][3]. - China's continuous release of policy incentives demonstrates its determination and ability to address economic pressures, adding stability to the global economy [1]. - For major investment varieties: - Crude oil prices are expected to be affected by trade agreements and supply - demand dynamics, with attention on sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold may enter a correction phase in the short - term but remains strong overall due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand [3][20]. - Stock index futures are likely to break upward due to policy incentives and low valuation levels, and option strategies can be used to capture trends [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [6]. - **Domestic News**: 27 Chinese cities had a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and most of them had a GDP growth rate of over 5.4% in Q1 [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The table shows the daily returns of various overseas market products from May 8th to May 9th, including the US S&P 500, German DAX Index, etc., with specific price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices fell slightly. The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. Policy incentives and Sino - US tariff negotiations are expected to boost the market, and stock index futures are bullish, while option strategies can be used [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut increased market liquidity. External factors and seasonal changes affected the economy. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones may fluctuate more [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose due to the "breakthrough" in the UK - US trade agreement. China's crude oil imports increased slightly, and the number of US online drilling oil wells decreased [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, while the overall methanol plant's开工 rate increased. Coastal inventory was at a low level, and imports were expected to increase. Methanol is short - term bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber's trend was volatile. Domestic and Thai rubber production areas were opening for harvest. Inventory was increasing, and tariff policies affected the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market was weak. Consumption declined, but cost fluctuations provided some support. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of Sino - US talks [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures were weak. Their inventories were under pressure, and the de - stocking process would take time [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell after rising due to the easing of tariffs. The Fed's wait - and - see attitude and economic data were key factors. Gold may enter a correction but remains strong overall [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable downstream demand affected the market. Copper prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and exchange rates [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Processing fees increased, and domestic demand was stable. The market expected better supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. Overseas tariff policies were unstable, and domestic monetary policy was loose. The market was expected to be weakly volatile [23]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose at night. Tight supply in Indonesia and tariff policies affected prices. Nickel prices may fluctuate in a wide range [24][25]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The cost of coking coal decreased, and the supply increased. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and there was an expectation of a price cut. Attention should be paid to support levels [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weakly volatile at night, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. Supply and demand dynamics and Sino - US relations affected the market [27]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal prices were weak at night. US soybean exports were under pressure, and domestic supply was expected to increase [28]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week. High prices squeezed profits, and there was an expectation of reserve auctions. The market entered a shock phase [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton demand was weak after the May Day holiday. New cotton planting in Xinjiang was basically completed. The market was in a shock phase, waiting for new demand channels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell on Friday. SCFI European line prices decreased. Supply was excessive, and the market was expected to be in a shock pattern [31][32].