USDL月差结构(美分/加仑) Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 30 40 25 30 20 20 15 10 10 0 -10 -20 -10 -30 -15 702506 202502 30506 nnisba 20550 202 - M1-M3 - M1-M2 M1-M3 M1-M6 - M1-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M6 - - MI-M9 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差(美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 2月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 202 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- -2021 - - 2025 - 2021 - - 2025 亚洲石脑油裂解 (美元/桶) | 美国汽油裂解 (美元/桶) ...

供需平稳，尿素延续震荡态势 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：供需平衡，尿素震荡为主 本周观点：需求环比改善，尿素坚挺运行 GALAXY FUTURES 2 周末至今，市场情绪尚可，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价提涨，成交平稳。山东地区主流出厂报价提涨，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工 率降至低位，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交转弱，待发充裕，预计 出厂报价坚挺为主；河南地区市场情绪平稳，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交平稳，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主。交 割区周边区域出厂价暂稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量 下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价坚挺为主。 综合来看：部分装置检修，日均产量降至20万吨以下，仍位于同期最高水平。需求端，昨晚新一轮印标价格公布，东 ...

值得注意的是，就在泽连斯基提出谈判提议的几小时前，俄乌之间发生了大规模相互袭击事件。据美联 社等媒体消息，当地时间19日夜间，俄罗斯对乌克兰展开了大规模空袭行动。乌方表示，此次袭击造成 了人员伤亡以及基础设施的损毁。而俄罗斯国防部则宣称，19日夜间，"俄罗斯防空部队在俄多个地区 成功拦截并摧毁了40架乌克兰固定翼无人机"。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 金价连续震荡调整收取高位见顶形态，对于后市来讲，有一定的看空转跌至3000美元或2600美元附近的 风险。不过，目前走势仍运行在5月均线上方，多头趋势依然保持不变，在跌破此支撑之前，暂继续维 持牛市看涨趋势等待再刷新高； 摘要今日周一（7月21日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3358.42美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3354.44美元/盎司，上涨0.15%，最高触及3358.42美元/盎司，最低下探3344.72美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一（7月21日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3358.42美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3354.44美元/盎司，上涨0.15%，最高触及3358.42美元/盎司，最低下探3344.72美 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 美国高温天气推动气价提升，欧洲储库推进气价回 落，关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份 2025 年 07 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气 缓和美国气价回落，关注利润稳定的 高股息标的新奥股份》 2025-07-14 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 《欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续， 各地气价平稳》 2025-07-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：美国高温天气推动气 ...

客服产品系列•日评 7 月 18 日，焦煤加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 943.2 元，环比上涨 23.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦煤价格上调，焦企利润下滑，开工积极性不足，焦炭日均产量连续下跌。需求，淡季铁水环比有小 幅回落，绝对水平在年内高位，支撑炉料日耗。焦企焦炭库存回落，市场心态较好，有提涨预期。 焦煤：基本面来看，产地部分煤矿因井下原因产量受限，供应恢复缓慢，调研数据显示上游开工率环比小幅 回升。进口，那达慕会期间蒙煤进口受限，口岸成交转好，口岸库存有所去化。需求，伴随现货成交转暖，焦钢 企业适当增加厂内库存，成材价格上涨带动下，盘面偏强震荡运行。（数据来源：东方财富网） 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（7 月 18 日）A 股三大指数集体小幅上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.50%，收报 3534.48 点； 深证成指涨 0.37%，收报 10913.84 点；创业板指涨 0.34%，收报 2277.15 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15711 亿，较 昨日放量 317 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 18 日强势，收盘 40 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the electric vehicle industry is the emergence of irrational competition methods such as "price wars" and "0-kilometer used cars," which disrupt market order and affect sustainable development [2] - "0-kilometer used cars" refer to vehicles with mileage between 0-1000 kilometers that are registered but sold as used cars, allowing manufacturers to enhance sales data and brand influence [2] - The practice of selling "0-kilometer used cars" is widespread, with reports indicating that thousands of companies are involved in this market, often pricing these vehicles significantly below the manufacturer's suggested retail price [2][9] Group 2 - Zeekr brand recently faced public scrutiny over allegations of selling "0-kilometer used cars," but clarified that the vehicles in question were normal display cars and not classified as "0-kilometer used cars" [3][4] - Zeekr emphasized that their display cars are legally considered new vehicles as they have not been registered or issued retail invoices, and they maintain consumer rights similar to new car buyers [4][7] - The distinction between display cars and "0-kilometer used cars" is legally significant, as registration status is the key factor in defining a used car [7] Group 3 - The phenomenon of "0-kilometer used cars" is seen as a symptom of deeper issues within the automotive industry, reflecting pressures of internal competition and inventory clearance strategies by dealers [10] - The Ministry of Commerce is actively engaging with industry associations and companies to address the "0-kilometer used car" issue and promote healthy development in the used car market [10][11] - Proposed regulations, such as a ban on transferring new cars to used car status within six months of registration, aim to curb the circulation of "0-kilometer used cars" and restore market order [11]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 1.0%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster the resilience of industrial metal prices during the off-season [1] - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to +2.7%, along with retail data showing a month-on-month increase of +0.6%, indicating consumer resilience and providing support for industrial metal prices [1] - Market expectations indicate a 50.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, alongside ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policies, which may lead to a new round of price boosts for industrial metals as the peak season approaches in mid-August [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering various metal sectors such as gold, copper, and aluminum [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8414, with a basis of 254, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7950 - 8350 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9048, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9250 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report data is the same as above, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9691, with a basis of 105, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data on July 4 shows a commercial inventory of 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [15][16]

豆油：跟随油脂板块上涨，品种间偏弱 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 21 日 棕榈油：基本面上涨偏早，警惕情绪回落 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,964 | 涨跌幅 1.91% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,046 | 涨跌幅 0.91% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,160 | 1.09% | 8,162 | 0.02% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,586 | 1.55% | 9,637 | 0.53% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,308 | 3.06% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.58 | -1.02% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 703,683 | 136146 | 557,055 | 18,911 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 341,179 | 58 ...

铁矿石主力合约日内涨超2.00%，现报808.50元/吨。 ...