化工一季度总结及二季度展望 20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度，石化企业成本端显著下降，税费和操作费用控制有效， 业绩下滑幅度小于预期。中游新能化板块大炼化企业受益于产业链开工率 下降，成品油、芳烃及部分烯烃产品供需格局改善。 • 2025 年二季度，OPEC 增产策略及需求端不乐观预期或导致石化产品需 求平淡。OPEC 通过调整增产量进行压力测试，可能导致市场进一步探底， 但预计不会大幅下跌。烯烃价格预计保持坚挺，受益于关税影响和丙烷进 口困难。 • 投资机会集中在上游高股息板块（如三桶油，业绩抗跌且可能提高分红） 以及中下游存在关税修复预期的部分品种（如涤纶长丝、乙烷产品）。 • 基础化工行业春节后出现阶段性错配，一季度氟化工（制冷剂）、农药、 复合肥等行业表现良好。二季度制冷剂进入旺季，磷肥出口政策变化可能 带来业绩修复，复合肥头部企业受益于品牌渠道和量的增长。 • 食品添加剂板块一季度表现亮眼，受益于代糖需求增加和产品结构调整。 三氯蔗糖价格上涨，I3M 有望复制提价模式。宝丰能源一季度业绩创历史 新高，内蒙项目增量逐步释放。 Q&A 2025 年第一季度石化行业的整体表现如何？ 2025 ...

Group 1 - In the first four months of the year, approximately 270 billion yuan was invested in the market through ETFs, with a net subscription amount of 170 billion yuan in April alone [1][1] - In April, 119 new funds were issued, raising a total of 901.56 million units, with equity funds accounting for 48.31% of the total [1][1] - The trust industry is undergoing a transformation, with three trust companies managing over 2 trillion yuan in assets, indicating a shift towards capital market participation [1][1] Group 2 - Insurance funds have shown a preference for high-dividend assets, with holdings in over 700 stocks, particularly in the banking sector [2][2] - The global shipment of large-sized LCD TV panels is expected to increase by 11.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a trend towards larger average panel sizes [2][2] - The application of exoskeleton robots is expanding in various sectors, with significant contributions from multiple A-share listed companies [2][2] Group 3 - The implementation of new accounting regulations has led to a rapid increase in the number of A-share companies reporting data assets, from 17 to 92, with reported asset values soaring from 0.79 billion yuan to 24.95 billion yuan [3][3] - The trust industry is restructuring its business model to adapt to regulatory changes, focusing more on capital market investments [4][4] Group 4 - Apple reported revenues of 95.36 billion USD for Q2 of FY2025, exceeding market expectations, although its stock price fell by 4% post-announcement due to lower-than-expected revenue from Greater China [5][5] - Hims & Hers appointed former Amazon executive Nader Kabbani as COO, indicating a strategic move to enhance operational capabilities [5][5] - Volvo's NOVO Energy announced a 50% workforce reduction as part of a cost-cutting and operational restructuring plan [5][5] Group 5 - The number of A-share companies seeking to list in Hong Kong has increased, with 46 companies currently in the process, reflecting a growing trend of cross-border listings [6][6] - Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine has passed the listing hearing for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating its readiness for international capital markets [6][6] Group 6 - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 ending a nine-day winning streak, influenced by tariff threats and specific stock performances [7][7] - Oil prices fell to a three-year low as OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases, while gold prices reached a one-week high [8][8]

Core Viewpoint - As of May 6, 2024, a total of 3,671 companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced their distribution plans for the year, with 3,646 of these companies including cash dividends, amounting to a total cash distribution of 1.64 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: High Dividend Yield Companies - Among the companies that have announced cash dividend plans, 379 have a dividend yield exceeding 3%, with 72 companies having a yield over 5% [1] - The company with the highest dividend yield is "好想你" (Hao Xiang Ni), offering a cash dividend of 10 yuan per share, resulting in a yield of 12.08% [1] - Other notable companies with high dividend yields include "冀中能源" (Ji Zhong Energy) at 9.49%, "广汇能源" (Guanghui Energy) at 9.24%, and "郑煤机" (Zheng Coal Machine) at 8.63% [1][3] Group 2: Industry Distribution of High Dividend Yield Companies - The industries with the most companies yielding over 5% include machinery, coal, and basic chemicals, each with 7 companies represented [2] - In terms of market segments, 66 companies from the main boards of Shenzhen and Shanghai, 2 from the Beijing Stock Exchange, and 4 from the ChiNext board have high dividend yields [2] Group 3: Consistent High Dividend Yield Stocks - A total of 177 companies have maintained a dividend yield above 3% for the past three years [4] - Notable companies with consistent high dividend yields include "冀中能源" (Ji Zhong Energy) with yields of 15.72%, 8.40%, and 9.49% over the past three years [4] - Other companies with consistent yields include "广汇能源" (Guanghui Energy) and "郑煤机" (Zheng Coal Machine), showing yields of 8.87% to 9.80% and 5.02% to 8.63% respectively [4][5]

（原标题：高股息板块往往成为资金的避风港） 5月5日，和讯投顾王偲安针对过去一年六大行走势及银行股的投资价值进行了深入分析。他指出，在过 去一年里，尽管整体行情低迷，但六大行股价却纷纷创出历史新高，这一现象引发了市场的广泛关注。 不少投资者认为，银行股因高分红率和高股息率而成为避险资金的首选，尤其在市场不佳时，高股息板 块往往成为资金的避风港。 然而，王偲安对此提出了不同看法。他首先质疑了银行股分红率是否真的高企。通过查阅银行股报表， 他发现分红率普遍在30%左右，即每赚取100元利润，仅向股东分配约30元。从这一角度看，银行股的 分红率并不算突出。那么，为何其股息率却常常高达5%以上呢？王偲安解释称，股息率的计算公式为 股息除以股价，由于银行股估值长期处于低位，股价作为分母较小，从而推高了股息率。 接着，王偲安探讨了股息率高是否就意味着安全。他指出，要回答这一问题，需深入分析六大行的客户 结构。从财报中不难发现，六大行的客户主要集中在大型国企，如煤炭、电力、石油、石化等行业。这 些行业在过去一年中业绩保持正增长，为银行提供了相对稳定的收入来源，且违约风险较低，坏账率也 相应较低。因此，在市场动荡时，银行股自 ...

第一大重仓行业是银行 Wind数据显示，剔除受自持因素影响的中国人寿、中国平安、平安银行三只个股后，截至2025年一季 度末，险资出现在735只个股的前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股数量为607.98亿股，合计持股市值 5808.83亿元。 其中，银行股受到险资青睐。整体来看，险资一季度对银行股加仓1.88亿股。一季度末，险资对银行股 的持股数量为278.21亿股，合计持股市值2657.8亿元，持股数量和市值均在险资持股行业中位居首位。 在险资持股名单中，前十大重仓股中有7只为银行股，包括民生银行、浦发银行、兴业银行、浙商银 行、华夏银行、招商银行、邮储银行。 据中国证券报记者统计，截至5月5日，今年以来险资已有13次举牌，其中6次为举牌银行股，包括平安 人寿举牌农业银行、邮储银行、招商银行（2次），瑞众保险举牌中信银行，新华保险举牌杭州银行。 华创证券金融业研究主管、首席分析师徐康认为，险资之所以青睐银行股，一方面，在长端利率下行背 景下，红利策略能够为险资带来稳定的股息现金流，一定程度上可以补偿利息现金流的收益下滑压力； 另一方面，在新会计准则下，红利标的更适用于FVOCI（以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综 ...

3. 防御板块的托底作用：如果市场冲高回落，黄金、高股息（比如电力、银行）这些避险品种可能出来护盘。最近国际局势有点波动，中东那边没消停，黄 金的避险属性值得关注。 操作策略上，分两类： 各位老铁们，我是你们的老朋友帮主郑重。五一假期刚过，市场就等着明天（5月6日）的第一个交易日了。今天咱们不整虚的，直接上干货，聊聊节后首日 A股会不会发红包，以及该怎么应对。 先说结论：明天大概率会高开，但能不能稳住红包，还得看量能和主力态度。 先看外围市场给的"红包皮"。五一假期期间，美股三大指数集体上涨，纳斯达克周涨幅近5%，港股更是气势如虹，恒生科技指数涨了7%多。人民币汇率也 硬气了一把，离岸人民币升破7.20关口，外资回流的迹象明显。这些利好对A股来说，就像节后收的"开工利是"，情绪上肯定有提振。 不过，高开之后能不能高走，得看A股自己的"底气"。节前最后一个交易日，上证指数收在3279点，创业板涨了0.83%，但成交量没跟上，两市加起来不到 1.3万亿。这说明市场有点"犹豫"，主力资金还在观望。明天如果开盘30分钟里，成交量能冲到1500亿以上，那全天可能稳住；要是缩量，高开低走的风险 就大了。 再拆解今天的关键 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 5 月科技第二波：初现端倪 五一节前一周上证指数跌 0.49%，沪深 300 跌 0.43%，恒生指数涨 0.63%，成 长风格表现强于价值风格。期间全 A 日均交易额 11039 亿，环比上周有所下降。 同时，五一假期期间 comex 黄金下跌 2.16%，伦铜、布油分别上涨 2.64%和 0.64%，美股科技股和人民币资产大涨，费城半导体指数大涨 3.95%，中国金龙 指数上涨 3.73%，人民币汇率大幅度升值到 7.21 附近，不难看出五一假期内全 球资产呈现 risk-on 定价。 大盘指数在 4 月符合我们《这是一个"黄金坑"！》的预判，上证综指一度突破 3300 点，在接近"出坑"之后，面向 5 月我们依然认为大盘指数会转入"震荡 市"思维，对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态，但没有明显"二次探底"风险。 1、当前一个积极的重要因素是中美关税博弈出现降温迹象，这意味着在节后 risk-on 趋势大概率会进一步扩散至 A 股市场。事实上，从 4 月下旬以来美方 率先释放缓和信号，4 月 22 日美财长贝森特表示他预计与中国的贸易战"在不 久的将来"将会"降级（de-es ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 科技主题和高股息 —定量策略周观点总第 161 周 金 融 工 程 研 究 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：亚洲货币兑美元集体走强，市场延续了"美国 例外论"终结、套息交易解绑的主线，非美资产短期没有 较大的系统性风险。5 月至 7 月美债集中到期，日美关税 谈判中美债也被作为谈判筹码，我们认为全球风险偏好同 样难明显提升，因此哑铃配置可能是 6 月 FOMC 会议前的 较好选择。一方面随着政治局会议落地，央行一定程度释 放流动性，利率债的配置价值凸显，建议拉长久期；高股 息和自由现金流风格同时进入配置区间。另一方面 5 月机 器人、AI、华为链、低空经济的调整有望结束，流动性也 支持主题投资机会。中期则继续看好具有基本面支撑的科 技板块，包括半导体自主可控、创新药和电池储能。 美股：【美元真实流动性】（负债表-tgd-onrrp）：本周 6.06 万亿→5.88 万亿，边际下降。其中美联扩表本周缩 表 176.53 亿美元（上周缩表 1.83 亿美元）；TGA 账户变 动 1014.98 亿美元（上周-626.24 亿美元），余额大幅上 升；隔夜逆回购 538.61 亿 ...

商誉减值致 24 年利润承压，25Q1 表现超 预期 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报、25 年一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27年每股收益分别为 1.73、1.97、2.17元（原预测 25-26年为 1.79、1.88元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 21 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 36.33 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期、原奶价格持续回落导致竞争加剧、减值损失缩窄幅度不 及预期、食品安全事件风险。 （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 125,758 | 115,393 | 121,413 | 128,328 | 137,195 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 11,873 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly with the recommendation of companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Xingtong Co. [3][20] Core Viewpoints - OPEC has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, which is expected to enhance the certainty of improvement in the shipping market in Q2 [3][20] - The report highlights the resilience of major ports and anticipates improvements in Southeast Asia's shipping and oil tanker sectors [3][20] - The report suggests that the "off-season" for shipping may not be as weak as expected, with a higher probability of strong performance from May to August [3][20] Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - OPEC's production increase will lead to a cumulative increase of 960,000 barrels per day over April, May, and June, which is 44% of the total expected increase of 2.2 million barrels per day [3][20] - The report notes that April shipping rates have risen against seasonal trends, indicating a potential for stronger performance in the second half of the year [3][20] - VLCC rates have decreased by 9% to $46,903 per day, but the overall market remains relatively strong with expectations for a rebound post-holiday [3][20][21] Air Transportation - The report indicates that oil prices, influenced by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, are relieving cost pressures on airlines [40] - The domestic air travel market is expected to recover, with passenger volumes projected to reach 10.75 million during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 8% [41][40] - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [42] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing high growth, with March volumes reaching 16.66 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [44] - The report emphasizes the potential for market share concentration among leading companies due to favorable policy changes [44] - Recommended companies include SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO Express [46] Railway and Highway - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with railway cargo volume increasing by 3% and highway truck traffic by 2.25% [48] - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines for the highway sector throughout 2025 [48]