Economic Indicators & Data Uncertainty - Traditional economic indicators are currently unreliable due to ongoing circumstances [1] - Key data releases including trade figures, jobless claims, and inventories are anticipated but may be delayed [1] - The market is closely watching New York Fed inflation expectations and the University of Michigan sentiment index [2] - The availability and reliability of CPI data are uncertain, potentially based on only 45% of usual data [5][6] Federal Reserve (Fed) Communication & Policy - Fed minutes from the first meeting and ongoing Fed speaker events are being monitored for insights into rate-cutting cycle [2] - The impact of Fed speakers is questioned due to the lack of new economic data [3] - Jay Powell's upcoming speech on the economic outlook is a key event [4] Upcoming Economic Data - CPI, PPI, retail sales, import prices, and housing starts data are highly anticipated but their release depends on government operations [5]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, slightly above the expected 49.7% and up from the previous 49.4%[1] - Manufacturing production increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while new orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%[1] - The average changes in production and new orders from 2016 to 2024 (excluding 2020/2022) were +0.24 and +0.41 percentage points, respectively[1] Price Trends - Manufacturing prices fell for the second consecutive month, with the factory price index decreasing by 0.9 percentage points to 48.2%[2] - The raw material purchase price index saw a minor decline of 0.1 percentage points to 53.2%, remaining in the expansion zone[2] - Non-manufacturing prices in the construction and service sectors dropped by 1.6 and 1.3 percentage points to 48.1% and 47.2%, respectively[2] Economic Signals - There are positive signs as manufacturing enterprises increased procurement by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, the highest since April[3] - New export orders in manufacturing rose by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, marking the highest level since April[3] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, but new orders remained low at 42.2%[4] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI for September is 50.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, indicating stable economic performance[5] - The average composite PMI for Q3 is 50.43%, consistent with Q2 and better than Q3 of the previous year[5] - Future monetary policy adjustments may depend on Q3 GDP growth, with a potential for easing if growth falls below 4.7%[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [4][19]. Group 1: Profit Improvement in Two Types of Industries - The profit improvement is evident in two categories of industries: one benefiting from price recovery and revenue improvement, leading to enhanced gross margins, and the other benefiting from increased investment income, resulting in improved profit margins [4][10]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the average PPI year-on-year for eight industries was -4.4%, a narrowing from -5.7% previously, with revenue growth of 2.29% in August compared to -1.65% previously [5][11]. - The downstream manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 36.3% in August, up from -5.2% previously, with a profit margin of 7.93%, significantly improved from 5.68% year-on-year [6][12]. Group 2: August Industrial Enterprise Profit Data Review (1) Overall Situation: Profit Growth Recovery - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with inventory growth at 2.3% compared to 2.4% previously [2][19]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, with costs per hundred yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [20][19]. (2) Industry Situation: Profit Growth Across Sectors - The mining industry experienced a profit growth rate of -23%, an improvement from -39.24% previously, while the manufacturing sector saw a growth rate of 26.3%, up from 6.63% [22]. - The upstream manufacturing sector's profit growth was 16.08%, while the midstream and downstream sectors reported growth rates of 6.75% and 36.3%, respectively [22].

Group 1: Overall Profit Trends - In August, the profit growth of industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 1.5% in July to an increase of 20.4% year-on-year[2] - The revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% in August, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points compared to July[4] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved to 5.83%, up by 0.90 percentage points year-on-year[17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Mining industry profit growth was -23% in August, an improvement from -39.24% in July[22] - Manufacturing industry profit growth reached 26.3% in August, up from 6.63% in July[22] - The downstream manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 36.3% in August, recovering from a decline of 5.2% in July[10] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for upstream manufacturing improved to 12.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year[9] - The gross profit margin for downstream manufacturing was 17.5%, slightly lower by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[10] - The profit margin for the beverage industry surged to 51.2%, with a profit growth rate of 226% in August[10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" remains unchanged, with signals of policy adjustments being released, emphasizing quality and stability in quantity, while economic downward pressure has increased in the short term. The "anti-involution" trend may become a major factor influencing economic performance in the second half of the year, with short-term economic pressures existing but long-term benefits for high-quality development [2][6][49]. Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points from July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2%, reflecting the impact of summer heat on supply chain disruptions and continued low real estate investment [3][9]. - The manufacturing and high-tech industries showed more stability, indicating resilience in China's industrial transition towards high quality, although global demand uncertainty and extreme weather pose greater constraints on future growth [3][9]. Demand Side - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a phase adjustment in consumption growth due to policy changes [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a phase adjustment in investment growth due to policy changes [4][15]. - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August 2025, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][16]. Price Dynamics - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in industrial product prices [7][23][28]. Monetary and Financial Aspects - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][31]. - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in corporate demand for current deposits and improved economic activity [8][44]. - The broad money supply (M2) remained stable at an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate, reflecting steady monetary supply expansion [8][46]. Future Outlook - The industrial output growth rate for 2025 is expected to stabilize around 6%, slightly down from 6.4% in the first half of the year, with policy support preventing significant declines [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].

Core Insights - The current implementation of the "anti-involution" policy focuses on capacity regulation and price guidance, which may lead to a dual turning point in the market [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote a downward turning point in excess capacity and an upward turning point in the Producer Price Index (PPI) as the process of resolving excess capacity accelerates [1][3] Policy Development - The "anti-involution" policy began with the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024, which first proposed preventing "involution-style" vicious competition, and has since evolved into specific corrective actions by December 2024 [2] - The policy has become a frequent topic in high-level meetings this year, with related measures being implemented, including the construction of a unified market and ten industry stabilization plans [2] Industry-Specific Measures - Different industries may adopt varying approaches to "anti-involution," but the overarching focus remains on capacity regulation and price guidance [2] - The main strategies include controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging mergers and acquisitions, all aimed at regulating capacity and guiding prices [2] Market Implications - The successful implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, supported by effective demand expansion measures, is expected to provide bullish support for the capital market [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].