Report Information - Date: January 19, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Shi Xiuming, Cao Baoqin, Kuai Sanke, Cong Yanfei [3] Core Views - The change in the likely candidate for the Fed Chair may disrupt the expectation of monetary easing, slightly increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - The national pig price is rising, especially in the Northeast, Central, and East China regions. The pig price is expected to move up, but there are risks of decline [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The inventory pressure of iron ore is gradually building up. The supply side has potential disruptions, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The demand for construction materials will seasonally weaken, but steel production will continue to recover. Rebar will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure. Without geopolitical drivers, the oil price is difficult to maintain strength. Short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - The demand for asphalt is still weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is ample in the first quarter. Weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. Soybean meal is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term [7]. - The palm oil price is supported by the upcoming decision on 2026 biofuel blending quotas in the US, but is weakened by the expected opening of Canadian rapeseed imports. It is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - The supply of synthetic rubber remains high, and the cost has increased significantly. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The structural monetary easing makes the general reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut difficult to implement in the short - term. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [10]. - The supply of plastics is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable with fluctuations. New production capacity puts pressure on the price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - The copper market has a complex situation with supply growth concerns and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - The aluminum market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality". The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [15] Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Silver**: The possible change of the Fed Chair candidate may disrupt monetary easing expectations, increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. Excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances have slightly decreased, but uncertainties remain. The uncertainty of the Fed Chair candidate increases risk - aversion. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [11]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of January 16, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter was 123.5 kg, up 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 35.83%, down 0.08%. The national pig price is rising, especially in some regions. The price is expected to move up with decline risks [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of January 16, the physical inventory of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 9.94 days, up 0.41 days from the previous period. The supply is ample in Q1, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. It has a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" and is recommended for range trading [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of January 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 410, up 1 from the previous week. The market has oversupply pressure, and short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: As of January 16, the weekly production was 49.7 tons, up 4.44 tons. The demand is weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. Wait - and - see is recommended during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, down 1.89% from the previous week. The supply remains high, the cost has increased, and the downstream resists high prices. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The domestic production is high, the demand is weak, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 6916 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The production is high, the new capacity pressure is large, and the demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 802.2 tons, up 4.47 tons. The downstream winter - storage demand is increasing, and the supply will decrease. The fundamentals will improve, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 9262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The inventory pressure is building up, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points. The demand will seasonally weaken, and it will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Copper**: First Quantum Minerals slightly lowered the copper production guidance for 2026 - 2027. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - **Aluminum**: Ghana's aluminum project has new financing. The market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality", and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [14][15]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has lowered the re - loan and re - discount rates. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate [9].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 10028 yuan, with a minimum intraday price of 99620 yuan, while London copper retreated to around 13155 USD [4][18] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement on eight European countries and uncertainty in monetary policy, which has increased risk aversion [5][18] - Global copper inventories increased by 65,700 tons to 955,000 tons, with domestic stocks rising significantly by 36,700 tons to 319,000 tons [5][18] - Short-term copper prices are expected to face downward pressure due to profit-taking, but demand from downstream stocking ahead of the holiday may limit the extent of the decline [5][18] - The reference trading range for today's Shanghai copper futures is set at 99,000 to 102,000 yuan per ton [5][18] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons for 2026, which is expected to support nickel prices in the short term [6][19] - The nickel market currently lacks significant supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][19] - The trading range for nickel futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton [20] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Market sentiment for aluminum continues to cool, with alumina prices declining; the domestic weighted average price is 2627.6 yuan per ton, down 34.1 yuan from the previous week [21][22] - The production capacity of alumina has rebounded to 96.25 million tons, indicating ongoing oversupply pressure [21][22] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is set at 2500 to 2800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook for prices [22][23] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by Trump's tariff announcement and profit-taking from previous positions [24] - Supply-side issues include temporary maintenance at some smelters in Yunnan due to raw material problems, leading to insufficient increases in zinc ingot production [24] - The trading range for zinc futures in Shanghai is suggested to be around 23800 to 25000 yuan per ton [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-side pressures from both primary and secondary sources [25] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with downstream purchasing intentions declining as the traditional off-season approaches [25] - The trading range for lead futures in Shanghai is suggested to be between 16800 and 17800 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing divergent trends, with gold steadily rising while silver has slightly retreated after a strong breakout [27] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and Trump's tariff announcements are increasing uncertainty, supporting safe-haven buying in precious metals [27] - The suggested trading ranges for precious metals are: gold at 1010-1060 yuan per gram, silver at 21500-23000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 590-640 yuan per gram, and palladium at 450-490 yuan per gram [27]

具体走势上，金价自周初高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点4512.88美元，之后反弹走强拉升，突破之前高点，之后多头动力减弱，并处于高位 震荡，于周三录得当周高点4642.63美元，周五一度回撤，收复当周大部分涨幅至4536.55美元，但最终触底回升，收于4594.07美元，相对于前周收盘价 4509.95美元，周振幅129.75美元，收涨84.12美元，涨幅1.865%。 张尧浠：黄金支撑因素此消彼长、调整仍都视为多头机会 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度反弹走强收涨，延续前周多头动力，并刷新历史高点，虽有所回撤获利了结，但多头仍占据优势，后市仍有望继续走强进一 步刷新高点。 影响上，周初受到地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担 忧。助力金价突破4600美元关口； 之后，虽然一度触及当周高点，但由于芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，加上获利了结。以及美国11月零售销售和生产者物价指数（PPI）表现强劲，减弱 了多头动力，再加上地缘局势缓和，近期稳健的美国就业数据支撑了美元，并使市场对美联储进一步降息的预期推迟至6月。一度打压金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump proposed new tariffs on eight European countries, which has heightened global market risk aversion, leading to a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, while U.S. stock futures declined [1] Group 2 - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.71% and the Nasdaq futures dropping by 1.1% [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose by 5 points, and the 30-year Treasury futures also increased by 5 points, indicating a flight to safety among investors [2] Group 3 - Spot gold prices surpassed $4,690 per ounce, reaching a new historical high with a daily increase of over 2% [5] - Spot silver prices exceeded $94 per ounce, also achieving a historical peak with a daily rise of over 4% [5]

白银价格剧烈波动！ 在经历了前期的疯狂上涨后，最近两个交易日，白银价格大幅波动。周四（1月15日）盘中，现货白银一度触及93.71 美元/盎司的历史新高，但随后大幅跳水，盘中跌幅一度超过7%，当天收盘时跌幅收窄至0.65%；周五（1月16日）， 现货白银再度出现跳水行情，盘中跌幅一度超过6%，收盘时下跌2.43%，险守90美元/盎司关口。 对于白银接下来的走势，摩根大通表示，白银面临多重风险，其中包括工业需求受高价抑制、ETF资金持续流出等。 该行表示，白银市场回调风险较大，但黄金依然看涨。 不过，也有机构认为，长期以来，金银价格走势具备高度相关性。长期的避险情绪以及白银市场供应端的紧张状态不 会改变，白银价格上涨逻辑依然稳固。 白银价格盘中跳水 1月15日，白银价格一度下跌7.3%，随后收复大部分失地。此前四个交易日，白银暴涨超20%；1月16日，白银价格再 度剧烈波动，现货白银盘中跌幅一度超过6%，收盘时险守90美元/盎司。 彭博社称，美国总统特朗普未对包括白银和铂金在内的关键矿物进口全面加征关税，他表示将转而寻求双边谈判，并 提出了设定价格底线的构想。这一决定是在进行了长达数月的审查后作出的，旨在评估外 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar index is likely to strengthen for the third consecutive week, supported by strong U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows that initial jobless claims were significantly lower than expected, indicating a resilient labor market, which has contributed to the dollar's upward momentum [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to maintain interest rates at levels that continue to restrict the economy to further curb inflation, highlighting the Fed's independence and decentralized governance structure as institutional advantages [2] Group 2 - In the technical analysis of February gold futures, the next bullish price target for closing is to break through the strong resistance level of $4750.00, while the bearish target is to push prices below the strong support level of $4400.00 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at the historical high of $4650.50, followed by $4675.00; the first support level is at Thursday's low of $4584.50, with the next support at $4550.00 [3]

上周全球权益市场呈现显著分化，亚洲市场强势领涨，日经225与韩国综合指数分别大涨3.84%和 5.55%，恒生指数亦上涨2.34%；欧美市场则普遍承压，标普500、道指、纳指分别下跌0.38%、0.29%、 0.66%，法国CAC40跌幅达1.23%。 商品市场中，布油上涨1.36%，天然气与焦煤分别下跌1.89%和1.43%，铜、铁矿亦走弱，相对表现最佳 为布油，最差为天然气。黄金强势上涨2.23%，白银更是飙升13.37%，反映避险情绪升温。 美元指数延续上涨态势，美联储理事预计2026年三次降息，每次25基点，市场在非农就业报告前情绪谨 慎，资金阶段性回流美元资产。 行业板块 ：上周万得一级行业指数多数走低，平均下跌0.44%。受AI算力需求持续、国产替代加速及政 策支持预期推动，信息技术以3.37%的升幅领涨；房地产持续承压下跌3.66%，源于销售数据疲软、政 策效果有限。 基金发行 ：上周合计发行23只，其中股票型基金发行10只，混合型基金发行7只，债券型基金发行3 只，QDII型基金发行1只，FOF型基金发行2只，总发行份额192.94亿份。 基金表现 ：上周万得全基指数上涨0.73%，其中偏股混 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have approached record levels, with spot gold surpassing $4600 per ounce for the first time on January 12, driven by rising risk aversion in the market [1] - There is a noticeable divergence in the market, characterized by "investment heat and consumption cold," indicating that while investment demand for gold is strong, consumer foot traffic in jewelry stores is significantly under pressure [1] Group 2 - The article aims to analyze the causes and impacts of the current gold market trends from multiple dimensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has dropped to $4587.91 per ounce, while domestic gold prices have also seen a decline, leading to increased price discrepancies across different regions and stores [1] Price Trends - Domestic gold prices vary significantly, with local stores offering lower prices compared to major brands. For instance, prices range from 1406 to 1439 yuan per gram in various local shops, while larger chains like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao have higher prices around 1436 to 1439 yuan per gram [1][3] - The price of platinum and silver also shows variability, with platinum prices around 735 to 939 yuan per gram and silver fluctuating between 21600 to 23665 yuan per kilogram [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The futures market indicates a mixed sentiment, with silver futures showing slight increases while gold futures remain weak. This suggests that while the current spot prices are declining, some investors are still betting on a rebound in silver [4] - The market is reacting more quickly to changes in sentiment, with prices adjusting within hours rather than days. This rapid response indicates a shift in how market participants perceive risk and value [4][7] Consumer Considerations - Consumers face challenges in navigating the gold market, particularly in understanding the difference between investment gold bars and jewelry. The premium on branded jewelry can lead to significant losses when reselling, while investment bars offer more transparent pricing [4][6] - The cost of craftsmanship in jewelry can also affect the overall value, with some products like 3D hard gold being priced higher despite having lower gold content [6] Investment Insights - The current market is experiencing a technical adjustment after a period of rising prices, with key support factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks still in play. This suggests that while short-term fluctuations are expected, the long-term outlook remains stable [7] - Investors are advised to be cautious and conduct thorough comparisons across different retailers to avoid overpaying, as price transparency has improved significantly [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical risks have eased, leading to a slight pullback in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, which had previously experienced aggressive gains [1][3][4] - The market sentiment has shifted as the likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran has decreased, resulting in a reduction of risk premium previously priced in [1][4] - The U.S. government's assurance that there are no plans to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has contributed to market stability, alleviating concerns over central bank independence [1][4] Group 2 - In terms of trade and resource policy, the delay in imposing tariffs on key mineral imports reflects a shift from unilateral sanctions to negotiation and collaboration, with a focus on securing supply chains through diplomatic agreements [2][4] - External market conditions are exerting pressure on metal prices, with crude oil prices experiencing significant fluctuations, dropping to approximately $59.00 per barrel, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at around 4.14% [2][4] - From a technical analysis perspective, February gold futures are facing initial resistance around $4,650.50, with a key target of breaking through the $4,750.00 level, while significant support levels are identified at $4,550.00 and $4,400.00 [2][4]