期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2025 年下半年：尽管短期或有种种因素打乱节奏，但行情整体仍然围绕自身基本面发展。碳酸锂整体供需格局或仍难改变，总体 供给仍显过剩，在矿端以及锂盐厂没有出现明显减产之前，碳酸锂市场或仍然维持震荡探底过程。我们预计，虽然近期存在储能抢出口 现象，需求端有一定支撑，但随着关税豁免到期...... 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩格局未变 锂价或震荡探底 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂半年报 2025-07-06 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016 ...

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年纯碱价格重心下移，纯碱供需持续宽松，使得各环节库存均大幅增加。展望 2025 年下半年，纯碱产能仍然面临过剩局面， 纯碱总库存将继续呈现高位上行态势，除非部分高成本产能出清，否则纯碱价格将持续下探成本..... 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号： F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号： F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 期货研究报告 | 纯碱半年报 2025-07-06 纯碱供需宽松，价格继续承压 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邮箱：wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 邮箱：kuan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation in the urea futures price in the second half of the year [2][10] 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **Cost**: In the first half of the year, coal prices continued a weak trend, and natural gas prices remained stable. Urea upstream enterprises had decent profits, and factory operating rates were high under the support of policies. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak but with limited downside. Urea production profits will decline due to new capacity [7] - **Supply**: In the first half, urea capacity increased by 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. More new devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the second half. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons [7] - **Import and Export**: In the first half, the total volume of urea import and export remained low. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, with a set export volume of about 2 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [7] - **Demand**: In the first half, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. Industrial demand declined, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season [8] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [9][82] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In early 2025, the urea price rose slightly due to agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand. In March, the market was stable as reserve supplies were released. In the second quarter, the market was affected by US tariff policies, Middle - East geopolitical situations, and export policies. The price oscillated between 1,600 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton [17] Urea Capacity Release - **Urea Production**: In the first half of 2025, urea production was about 35.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons. The new capacity in the first half was 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The full - year capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.6%, reaching 80.43 million tons/year [25] - **2025 China Urea Production Plan**: The total new capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.03 million tons/year, with some already put into operation and others planned for the second half, mainly in the fourth quarter [33] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - **Urea Production Profit**: In the first half of 2025, coal prices were weak, and natural gas prices were stable. Enterprises had good profits, and the operating rate was high. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak, and production profits will decline. Pay attention to the impact of coal price rebounds on costs and the change in upstream device loads caused by profit compression [34] - **Urea Actual Operating Rate and Forecast**: In the first half of 2025, the national average operating rate was 86.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The coal - based urea operating rate increased significantly. In the second half, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high, but the operating rate may decline slightly due to new capacity [47] Urea Import and Export - **Total Urea Import and Export Volume**: In the first half of 2025, the total import and export volume was low. From January to May, the import volume was 1,262.5 tons, and the export volume was 11,000 tons. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, and exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [52] - **Urea Export Profit**: In the first half of 2025, international urea prices were higher than domestic ones, but exports were restricted by policies. Since June, due to the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, international prices have risen significantly, and export profits have increased. It is expected that the export volume will increase in the third quarter [57] Urea Consumption and Inventory - **Urea Downstream Consumption**: In the first half of 2025, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season. The compound fertilizer operating rate was 41.6% in the first half, and it is expected to recover. The melamine operating rate was 63.6% in the first half, and industrial demand is not expected to improve significantly in the second half [66] - **Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of the end of June, enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [82]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to see a recovery in prices due to seasonal demand and a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential long-term profit cycle [5][70] - The recent increase in pig prices is attributed to supply constraints caused by seasonal weather conditions and reduced slaughtering activities [24] - The overall agricultural sector has shown resilience, outperforming the market indices in recent weeks [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55% in the week ending July 4, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.15% [15] - The pig farming sub-sector saw a price increase of 4.28% for live pigs, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter reached 128.64 kg, up 0.50 kg week-on-week [24] 2. Key Data Tracking - As of the end of May, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year [1] - The average price for live pigs decreased to 14.92 yuan/kg in May, down 0.9% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year [1] - The average profit per pig for large-scale farms dropped to 49 yuan per head in May, down from 86 yuan in April [1] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture as key investment opportunities [5][70] - The feed and veterinary sectors are also expected to benefit from the recovery in pig stocks, with companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological Products suggested for consideration [5][70] - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices presents investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang Group [5][70]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market in the first half of 2025 is experiencing a "spot price decline and wide fluctuations in futures," with overall prices showing a downward trend but at a lower rate than previously expected [1] Price Trends - As of the end of June, the average price of pigs in producing areas is 14.86 yuan/kg, down by 0.91 yuan/kg, while in selling areas, the average price is 15.35 yuan/kg, down by 0.94 yuan/kg [1] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year, potentially leading to a short-term price rebound supported by seasonal demand recovery and market sentiment [1] Influencing Factors - Short-term price movements will be influenced by the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter and the sentiment around holding back pigs from the market, while long-term price performance will depend on the sustainability of capacity reduction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a recovery in capital sentiment, with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in steel and photovoltaic industries, driven by a new wave of "de-involution" and capacity reduction initiatives from the government [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% to close at 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index by 1.50% [2]. - The steel and photovoltaic sectors experienced a surge, with photovoltaic glass prices rising over 10% during the week [2]. Group 2: Institutional Research - A total of 158 listed companies disclosed institutional research minutes, with over 70% of the researched stocks achieving positive returns [2]. - Taotao Automotive was the most favored stock by institutions, achieving a remarkable gain of 29.82% during the week [3]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Taotao Automotive, a leader in the North American leisure vehicle market, reported an expected net profit of 310 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.34% to 97.81% [3]. - Shunwang Technology, a core supplier in the esports service sector, discussed its multi-layered computing power service system and AI computing power platform during institutional interactions [4]. - Xinjie Electric, focused on industrial automation, highlighted its advancements in core components for humanoid robots, including hollow cup motors and high-performance optical encoders [5]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy is developing new profit growth points, including high-stability lithium supplement materials and a new structure cathode material with improved energy density and performance [6].

以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 曾剑 拟并购标的总资产上亿 SEA3公司成立于2016年9月，注册地位于东南亚，注册资本为6333万元。公司股东包括SEA3集团以及6名自然人。上市公司称交易对手与其不存在关 联。 e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价 的主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 花几块钱就能在东南亚买下一家资产上亿的企业？此事真实发生。 中红医疗（300981）近日披露，其全资子公司中红香港、下属桂林恒保防护国际有限公司（下称"桂林恒保"）签署股份买卖协议和股东协议， 收购东 南亚SEA3公司（下称"SEA3公司"）合计75%股权。 证券时报·e公司记者注意到，SEA3公司75%股权的交易价格仅为6.97元，由中红香港、桂林恒保分别支付4.88元和2.09元。 中红医疗主要从事高品质一次性健康防护用品、医用无菌器械等产品的研发、生产与销售，属于医疗器械行业。 公司产品包括一次性健康防护手套、安 全输注产品（注射器、输液器等）、避孕 ...