Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the pig market, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 12,560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 11,755 yuan/ton, 11,465 yuan/ton, and 12,065 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 103,800 lots, 28,435 lots, and 19,009 lots respectively, with increases of 27,891 lots, 9,977 lots, and 7,941 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 139,553 lots, 113,296 lots, and 61,762 lots respectively, with increases of 9,034 lots, 4,935 lots, and 657 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 225 yuan/ton, 515 yuan/ton, and - 85 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 100 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and - 95 yuan/ton. The spreads between pig1 - 3 and pig3 - 5 are 290 yuan/ton and - 600 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 110 yuan/ton and 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Information - In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

谨 慎 看 空 谨 慎 看 空 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价上方承压。11 月 2 日，OPEC+计划于 月继续扩产 13.7 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费 | | 原油 | | | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 | | | | 压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单持有，并购买看涨期 | | | | 权做好风控。 | | | | 成本端油价震荡偏弱，液化气上方承压。美国制裁俄罗斯风险释放，油价 | | LPG | | 回调，沙特再度下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；供需基本面改善，供给量 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强；库存端，港口与厂内 | | | | 库存均下降。策略：空单持有。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，现货延续下跌，基差走弱。装置陆续重启，国内开工 | | L | 空头延续 | 季节性回升，进口量集中到港，国内外供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is expected to follow the upward trend of US soybeans and rebound, while the price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate in a rebound [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend, while the trend strength of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,116 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4,138 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.58%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,063 yuan/ton during the day session, up 12 yuan (+0.39%), and 3,051 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1,127.5 cents/bushel, up 10.25 cents (+0.92%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 319.1 dollars/short ton, up 2.1 dollars (+0.66%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3,010 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10 to +60, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the spot price was 3,010 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the spot price was 3,030 - 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10 to +40, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.75 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 4.7 million tons two days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading week, compared to 105.93 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 10, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day, mainly due to the progress of the US government shutdown and the expectation of the recovery of US soybean exports to China [3]. - The market is waiting for the USDA's November supply and demand report, which will include the first US crop production forecast since mid - September [3]. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is 61%, behind last year's 67% due to irregular rainfall [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but there is a lack of obvious bullish drivers, so it should be treated as a short - term bullish technical play [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, and the price is in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Soybean oil is in a short - term consolidation, with a lack of strong bullish drivers [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short - term [1]. - Cotton prices are under upward pressure, but there may be short - term low - buying opportunities [1]. - The outlook for red dates is cautiously bearish, with the disk expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - The outlook for live pigs is a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [1]. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - Brazil's rainfall in the next 15 days is expected to be slightly lower than normal. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and they have a price - supporting mentality. The US - China tariff issue on soybean imports remains unresolved. The latest weekly inventory has decreased month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3104 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan or 0.20% [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - The port inventory of rapeseed meal is high, and it is the off - season for downstream consumption, which puts pressure on the market. Canada's inability to cancel tariffs on China has cooled the market's expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs. The futures price of the main contract closed at 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2617.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan or 0.36% [1][5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in October and November in Malaysia. However, the inverted import profit may lead to insufficient imports in December and January. The futures price of the main contract closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day. The national average price is 8688 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.67% [1][8]. Cotton - In the international market, the increased supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices, while India's MSP provides some support. In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory is higher than the same period in previous years. The downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is relatively fast, which may relieve the hedging pressure faster than in previous years. The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1][10]. Red Dates - The market has seen a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is gradually becoming clear. With high - inventory old dates, the downstream acceptance of new products is limited. The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [1][14]. Live Pigs - In November, the planned slaughter volume has slightly decreased, but there is still some pressure due to weight gain. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11955 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 12020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [1][17].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 11 日 LLDPE：单体环节利润压缩，关注进口压力 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6802 | 0.00% | 298530 | 930 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -32 | | -22 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -76 | | -79 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6770 | | 6780 | | | | 东 华 | 6900 | | 6900 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 今日 LLDPE 市场价格延续弱调，幅度在 10-50 元/吨。线性期货低开震荡 ...

| | 1 | N | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I 11 | 1 Company of Alleria | S | 10 | 197 | X 16 2 | 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国政府关门风险消除，流动性危机解，但是数据缺失,美国就业市场受到挑战。黄 | 黄金 | | | 长线做多 | | 金价格走强，不过因为缺少新的驱动，短期高度也有限。但是黄金中长期地缘秩序 | | ★ | | 重塑，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 伦敦市场白银逼仓风险解除，另外盘面跟随相关市场波动，基本面全球政策刺激白 | | | | 白银 | 长线做多 | 银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。11400 支撑较强。长线做多持 | | ★ | | 有 | | 美国政府关门风险消除，美元流动性释放，国内核心 | | CPI 连续 6 个月上涨，市场风险 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 偏好走高，建议背靠均线逢低轻仓试多，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发， | | ★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, trend - bearish varieties include zinc; shock - bearish varieties include egg, plastic, methanol; shock varieties include soda ash, glass, asphalt, etc.; shock - bullish varieties include lithium carbonate, apple; trend - bullish varieties are not mentioned [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, bearish varieties include corn, PTA, glass, etc.; shock varieties include coking coal, hot - rolled coil, etc.; bullish varieties include methanol, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - The US suspends the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspends the special port fees for US ships and anti - countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year. China adds the US, Mexico, and Canada to the export control list of precursor chemicals [6]. - The US Senate passes a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time is not arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [6]. - The State Council issues measures to promote private investment, including encouraging private capital to participate in the construction and operation of small - scale urban infrastructure projects [6]. - The Asset Management Association solicits opinions on the management guidelines for the investment style of public - offering theme funds to regulate style drift [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues compliance tips for the "Double Eleven" online promotion, banning illegal acts such as "big data price discrimination" [7]. - The US and Thailand reach a reciprocal trade framework agreement. Thailand cancels 99% of tariff barriers, and the US maintains a 19% reciprocal tariff [7]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% [7]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts with an "open mind" [8]. - In October, US container imports were 2.31 million TEU, down 7.5% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. November and December imports are expected to decline [8]. - The new Japanese government asks the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year, but the central bank may raise rates as early as December [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the style switch between IH and IC. The A - share market shows differentiation, with inflation data better than expected and export decline affected by high - base and holiday factors [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is in the realization period, and bonds still have upward momentum. Pay attention to the rhythm. The market digests inflation data, and bonds show a strong trend. The decline in exports is affected by multiple factors, and moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [12]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black market will be in shock consolidation, and in the medium term (winter), it will maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Policy events are basically settled, and the industry will return to fundamentals. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore and other raw material prices are weak [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of mine inspections and downstream molten iron output. In the short term, molten iron output may decline, and coking coal supply is restricted. However, weak steel demand in the off - season and potential negative feedback will limit price increases [16][17]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the oversupply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to ease. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. In the short - term, also take a short - on - rallies approach, but be cautious due to the firm performance of manganese ore and rising lanthanum charcoal prices [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Glass prices are weak, and soda ash prices are strong. Glass enterprises reduce prices after poor sales, and some soda ash plants raise prices due to cost increases and production cuts [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories slightly increase, and zinc prices are high due to inventory fluctuations and macro - positive factors. Downstream demand is cautious, and spot trading is mainly among traders [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in Q1 next year. After the price correction, consider buying on dips [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradiction and will fluctuate within a range. Polysilicon's price is supported by spot prices, and its upper limit depends on capacity merger policies. It will also fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices will fluctuate at a low level. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial for market confidence. Pay attention to USDA reports [28]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from supply expectations but supported by production costs. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy before new sugar supply increases significantly. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [30]. Eggs - Egg futures are strong due to "capacity reduction" expectations, but the premium over spot may limit the upside. Spot prices may be strong in November but with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short near - month contracts [33]. Apples - Apple prices will fluctuate strongly. The apple storage season is nearly over, and inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to price trends and post - storage sales [35]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the upside pressure on the futures. Corn prices have rebounded, but supply pressure is still accumulating. Pay attention to new - grain sales progress and wheat policy [36]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Weak spot sales in the distribution area drag down new - jujube ordering prices, and the futures fluctuate [38]. Pigs - Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and control positions. Supply is high, and short - term sales pressure remains [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. EIA inventories are increasing, and there is an expectation of supply surplus in Q1 next year. OPEC+ slows down production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains [41]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. The focus is on supply concerns after sanctions on Russia [43]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, but production losses may provide some support [44]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. Consider going long on dips with stop - losses. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Be cautious about going long on synthetic rubber. It may continue to fluctuate weakly due to raw material drag. Pay attention to downstream procurement and macro - sentiment [46]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuate greatly. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and wait for a long - entry opportunity for far - month contracts after a rebound driver appears [47]. Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for caustic soda and consider going long on dips. Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are affected by coking coal prices [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games. Crude oil prices are stable, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected device changes. PX supply is stable, PTA supply pressure may ease, and ethylene glycol inventory is high [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the long - term, adopt a short strategy for LPG. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to the approaching peak demand season [53]. Pulp - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for pulp. Fundamentals are stable, and the upside space is limited [53]. Logs - Log prices are expected to be under pressure. Fundamentals are weakly balanced, and inventory is expected to increase [54]. Urea - Operate according to policies and pay attention to basis pressure. Adopt a wide - range fluctuation strategy. Spot prices are rising, but the follow - up power is insufficient [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weak - running trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][5]. - It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is that the weak supply - demand situation dominates, leading to a weak and volatile methanol market [1]. 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile consolidation trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2098 yuan/ton. The recent agreement in the US Senate to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and risk appetite. However, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-10 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格偏低 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 产量下滑。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，比30日-1.33%。行业开工率为75%，比30日-1.35个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.56%，比30 | | | | 日-1.07个百分点。本周1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，4条燃煤产线集中停产，供应量环比下降明显。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估 | | | | 下周浮法玻璃日产量维持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化，企业库存6313.6万重箱，环比-265.4万重箱，环比-4.03%，同比+29.05%。折库存天数27.1天，较上期-0.9天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周基差震荡；（2）01-05 ...