Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions on dips or short-term trading; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommend shorting 01 contract and going long on 05 contract for soda ash [1][21][23][25] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias; bearish on dates, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][41][43][45] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been confirmed, but the subsequent pace remains uncertain, with a moderate short-term boost to risk assets [5] - The coal industry is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with rising prices and increased market sentiment [8] - The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors [10] - The copper market is affected by macro factors, with high prices weakening demand support, but there is still support from peak season demand and potential domestic policy adjustments [11] - The aluminum market is in a high and stable production state, with demand entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [12] - The nickel market is affected by macro and ore news in the short term, with a long-term supply surplus, recommended to short on rallies [17] - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices, recommended for range trading [18] - The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation, recommended for range trading [18][19] - The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability, recommended for range trading [22] - The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month, recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations, recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand [27] - The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory, recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening, recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving, recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, recommended to short 01 contract and go long on 05 contract [36] - The cotton market has positive expectations due to improved global supply and demand and peak season expectations, but there is pressure from increased new cotton production, recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - The PTA market has cost and supply-demand factors driving in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations, recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [38] - The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [40] - The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure, recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support, recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound, recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Stock Indices**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but the subsequent rhythm is uncertain. The A-share market may have some profit-taking on Thursday. The market volatility may further increase, and it is recommended to pay close attention to trading volume trends. Long-term bullish, recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continues to fluctuate, with yields hovering near important resistance levels. There is a lack of trend in the bond market, and most institutions prefer short-term operations. After the adjustment, the negative factors in the market are gradually fading, and the bond market does not have a basis for a significant decline. It is recommended to hold and wait patiently [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have driven up market sentiment, with rising coal prices and increased market activity. The investment strategy is to range trade [7][8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated and declined on Thursday. The fundamental supply and demand are still weak, but it is the traditional peak demand season in September - October. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's remarks have affected the copper market. High copper prices have weakened demand support, and the market is expected to be volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips and trade cautiously [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and the production status of alumina and electrolytic aluminum. Demand is entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy or go long on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is affected by the Indonesian nickel ore event and the upcoming nickel ore approval work. The nickel market is in a state of surplus, but there is support from traditional peak season expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to the US interest rate decision [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to macro data, export situation, inventory, and upstream start-up [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [27] - **Urea**: The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, with an obvious surplus in production. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro environment is getting better. However, the large increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the restart of production facilities. The cost and supply-demand factors drive in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - **Apples**: The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits. It is recommended to range trade with a bullish bias [38] - **Dates**: The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing. It is recommended to range trade with a bearish bias [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - **Eggs**: The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - **Corn**: The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - **Oils**: The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various steel and related products, including cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal; short-term long participation for iron ore; and cautious bearish for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the steel industry shows some positive changes in supply and demand, but there are still uncertainties and limitations. Different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Rebar's apparent demand improves month-on-month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline. However, the speed of inventory reduction needs further observation. The Tangshan production restriction news provides a boost, but it is expected to be only a temporary impact. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel supply high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still have a negative impact. The supply and demand driving force is limited, and it may operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreases, production and inventory increase slightly, and the overall change is small. The supply and demand are relatively stable with few contradictions. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel demand weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side. It may also operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron ore's fundamentals are strong due to the increase in hot metal production, the recovery of foreign ore arrivals, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking. However, the driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. Short-term long participation is recommended [1][6][7] Coke - Coke has started the first round of price increases. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and spot production is relatively stable. The hot metal production increases slightly month-on-month and remains at a high level, resulting in high raw material demand. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to operate within a range. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][10][11] Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal overproduction has started to take effect, with some coal mines shutting down for rectification. The current domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, resulting in a tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The hot metal production increases slightly, and the high absolute level ensures raw material demand. There are few short-term supply and demand contradictions, but supply-side policies are sometimes disruptive. It operates strongly within a range in a positive atmosphere. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][14][15] Ferrous Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply and demand of ferromanganese both decrease month-on-month. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 198,900 tons, an increase of 32,100 tons month-on-month. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill in September is 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August. Overall, the supply and demand tend to be loose, and the cost side strongly supports the price. There may be short-term correction pressure, and cautious long chasing is advised [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The total inventory of sample enterprises this week is 63,390 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons month-on-month. The cost side still provides some support for the price in the short term, and the market may follow the coal price to operate within a range [1][17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy recommendation is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5840.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.13, with a change of 4.00%. US cotton closed at 66.92, with a change of - 0.39% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widened price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10629.0, with a change of - 3.27%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4438.0, with a change of - 3.84% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The sugarcane growth in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The overall growth of cotton this season is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - market Quotes**: US sugar rose from 15.51 to 16.13, a 4.00% increase; US cotton fell from 67.18 to 66.92, a - 0.39% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5870.0 to 5840.0, a - 0.51% decrease; Kunming sugar spot price decreased from 5860.0 to 5850.0, a - 0.17% decrease; cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.06% increase; Xinjiang cotton spot price increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, a 0.33% increase [4] - **Spread Quick View**: SR01 - 05 decreased by - 5.26%, SR05 - 09 increased by 100.00%, SR09 - 01 decreased by - 100.00%, CF01 - 05 remained unchanged, CF05 - 09 increased by 20.00%, CF09 - 01 increased by 27.27%. Sugar and cotton basis for different contracts also had corresponding changes [4] - **Import Prices**: Cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.1 [4] - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1587.5 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of different sugar and cotton option contracts are given [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10988.0 to 10629.0, a - 3.27% decrease; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4615.0 to 4438.0, a - 3.84% decrease [4]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a hot - tracking on September 18, 2025, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Variety Lists - The varieties involved include sugar, methanol, butadiene rubber, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, etc [5] Group 3: Daily Fluctuation and Fund - related Information - The report shows the daily price fluctuations, fund flow directions, fund changes, trading volume changes of various futures varieties [5][6][8] - The top five varieties with daily fund inflows are sugar, methanol, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, butadiene rubber, and rubber; the top five varieties with daily fund outflows are Shanghai Aluminum, eggs, crude oil, Shanghai Copper, and cotton yarn [11] Group 4: Position - related Information - The report presents the position amount proportion of various futures varieties, such as 11% for CSI 500 Futures, 17% for CSI 1000 Futures, and 12% for Shanghai Gold [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated, and continued its decline today, weakening again in the afternoon. With the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, leading to a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, increasing short - term long - closing willingness. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Aluminum prices decreased significantly with reduced positions last night, stabilized in oscillation today, and the position volume continued to decline. Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, causing a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faces pressure at the March high, with strong long - closing willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, with a slight decline in position volume, causing the futures price to break below 121,000 at the end of the session. After the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, resulting in a general decline in domestic commodities. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are rising, which is bearish for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will tend to oscillate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the North China electrolytic copper market, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream consumption. Although copper prices have declined, downstream enterprises are still hesitant to buy due to price concerns. As smelters are about to conduct centralized maintenance, their enthusiasm for selling is low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, market trading is inactive [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.40% [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 121,400 and 124,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 2,100 and 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread after the restart of the main PDH [3] - Cross - period: After the restart of the main PDH, focus on the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, two PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei restarted and increased production. There is still a load reduction at Binhua, the PDH unit of Qingdao Jinneng continues to be under maintenance, Shandong Zhenhua is expected to restart in the short term, and the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa in the East China region continue to be shut down [2] - On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream are greatly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up rate of PP has decreased significantly, the price difference between PP and propylene has narrowed significantly, and the start - up of powder materials is difficult to recover. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the start - up of phenol - acetone has also decreased significantly. The PO unit of Qixiangtengda is shut down for maintenance, and the start - up of propylene oxide is expected to decline. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the start - up rate continues to rise. After the restart of the Wanhua acrylic acid unit, the start - up rate has the largest increase. Downstream purchases at low prices, and the demand support has improved, but the downstream cost pressure has not been relieved, which may suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the center of oil prices has rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has continued to strengthen, so the cost side still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6462 yuan/ton (+17), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6615 yuan/ton (+65), the basis of propylene in East China is 13 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of propylene in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of propylene is 73% (-2%), the spread between Chinese propylene CFR and Japanese naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (+0) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is - 395 yuan/ton (-115) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of PP powder is 33% (-4.04%), and the production profit is - 205 yuan/ton (-65) [1] - The start - up rate of propylene oxide is 74% (+0%), and the production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - The start - up rate of n - butanol is 87% (+1%), and the production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (-46) [1] - The start - up rate of octanol is 96% (+1%), and the production profit is 15 yuan/ton (-54) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylic acid is 74% (+5%), and the production profit is 603 yuan/ton (+68) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 72% (-1%), and the production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - The start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 71% (+2%), and the production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1681.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 5.00 yuan (-0.30%) from September 16 [1] - UR05: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from September 16 [1] - UR09: 1755.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.11%) from September 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granules) - Shandong: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Shanxi: 1530.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 10.00 yuan (-0.65%) from September 16 [1] - Henan: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Hebei: 1680.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Jiangsu: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR basis: - 84.00 yuan/ton on September 17, up 3.00 yuan from September 16 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 53.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan from September 16 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 20.00 yuan (-0.68%) from September 16 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5083.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1685 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1681 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply was flat last week, demand decreased by 3.70%, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8,830 - 9,100. The overall situation is affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak cost support [6][7]. - For polysilicon, production increased last week, and 9 - month production is expected to decrease slightly. Demand in the downstream sectors shows different trends, with overall demand recovering. The market is expected to oscillate between 52,530 - 54,450 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, flat compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease compared to the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [7]. - Evaluation: Fundamentals are bearish; basis is bullish; inventory is bearish; the disk is bullish; the main position is bearish [7]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8,830 - 9,100 [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase compared to the previous week. The planned production for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, a 0.72% increase compared to the previous week. The inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Evaluation: Fundamentals are neutral; basis is bearish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bullish; the main position is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand in the downstream sectors continues to increase, and overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52,530 - 54,450 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices: Some contracts showed price increases, such as the 01 contract increasing by 0.48% [15]. - Spot prices: The prices of some products remained unchanged, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining at 9,100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.37%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.84%, and major port inventory increased by 1.71% [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices: Some contracts showed price decreases, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 0.20% [17]. - Spot prices: The prices of some products remained unchanged, such as the price of daily N - type 182mm silicon wafers remaining at 1.33 yuan/piece [17]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory increased by 3.79%, and the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased by 40.85% [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Production: The weekly DMC production was 47,800 tons, a 3.02% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Price: The price of DMC remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 82 yuan/ton, in a loss state [15]. - Inventory: The monthly DMC inventory was 73,200 tons, a 34.81% increase compared to the previous month [15]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 3.13%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.60% [15]. - Price: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 159 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 70,800 tons, a 22.28% increase compared to the previous week [16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Production: The monthly production of polysilicon was 492 GW, a 4.45% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Price: The price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase compared to the previous week [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have shown little overall fluctuation and remain at relatively high levels. Most downstream and terminal enterprises maintain a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, resulting in a cold overall transaction in the spot market. The spot premium remains at 200 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Technically, with a decrease in positions and price adjustments, there are differences in long - short trading, facing a pressure level of 275,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 272,540 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is down 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 23,007 lots, down 1,266 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 2,009 lots, up 140 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 185 tons, up 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,204 tons, down 106 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,320 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 148.02 US dollars/ton, down 16.02 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months. Real retail sales after inflation adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth. The US Treasury Secretary believes that the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year. In the tin market, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The employment market is in a balanced state. On the supply side, the increase in production in July was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend due to the boost of macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SF2511 is 5700, with no change from the previous trading day, and the trading volume is 210,936, and the open interest is 212,449; the closing price of SF2601 is 5680, up 20 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 80,355 and an open interest of 95,537. For manganese silicon, the closing price of MS2511 is 5920, up 26 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 170,580 and an open interest of 115,197; the closing price of MS2601 is 5944, up 38 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 220,244 and an open interest of 335,721 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 11 futures) is - 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price spread of manganese silicon (spot - 01 futures) is - 214 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon iron (SF2511 - SF2601) is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the near - far month price spread of manganese silicon (MS2511 - MS2601) is - 24 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price spread of MS2511 - SF2511 is 220 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price spread of MS2601 - SF2601 is 264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Prices**: On September 16, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5200 - 5300 (+50), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5450 (+100), in Qinghai is 5250 - 5350 (+50), in Gansu is 5350 - 5400 (+50), and in Inner Mongolia is 5350 - 5400 (+50); the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5900, in Ningxia is 5700 - 5800, in Qinghai is 5750 - 5800, in Gansu is 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia is 5800 (cash - inclusive natural lump ex - factory, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1040 - 1060, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 (US dollars/ton, inclusive of tax). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash ex - factory tax - inclusive quotation) [1]. - **Steel Mill's Purchase**: A steel mill in Shandong has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5740 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 200 tons [1]. - **South Korea's Manganese Ore Import**: In August 2025, South Korea imported 110.02 tons of manganese ore, a sharp 99.73% decline from the previous month. From January to August 2025, South Korea imported a total of 248,588 tons of manganese ore, a slight 13.4% increase year - on - year, but a significant 58.14% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Due to the low iron alloy prices and high electricity costs, most South Korean alloy producers are not operating at full capacity, and some are still cutting production by 30% - 50%, resulting in low manganese ore imports since 2023 [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].