证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 超长债周报 贸易战形势扑簌迷离，超长债成交量保持高位 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周贸易战形势扑簌迷离，债市跟随波动。另外资金面维 持宽松态势，隔夜利率再次回落至 1.4%，超长债小幅承压，全周 V 型走 势。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投相当活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 5 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 23BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，4 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 4 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，较 3 月回落 0.8%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，4 月 CPI 为-0.1%，PPI-2.7%，通缩风 险依然明显。近期中美贸易摩擦出现阶段性缓和，投资者悲观预期有所 消散，短期焦点将回到国内二季度经济数据，我们预计随着政策托底效 应的减弱，债市收益率下行概率更大。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依 然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 5 月 30 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 2B ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a temporary easing in the US-China trade war due to a 90-day agreement that reduces tariffs, leading to a rebound in export demand and stable industrial production, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in Q2 [1][7][10] - In May, the PMI export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, and the container freight index for exports to the US West and East coasts increased by 10.84% and 6.45% respectively, indicating a recovery in export activity [7][10] - Despite stable production, the report notes a disconnect between production stability and effective financing demand, with new RMB loans in the first four months of 2025 at 9.78 trillion, slightly above last year's 9.44 trillion but below 2023's 11.1 trillion [2][11][14] Group 2 - The report identifies several factors contributing to the weak recovery in financing demand, including high uncertainty regarding the temporary agreement and fluctuating US trade policies, which limit risk appetite among businesses [14][15] - The real estate sector shows limited willingness to expand financing demand, with new long-term loans for residents at 760.1 billion, lower than previous years, and ongoing credit risks for property companies affecting bank lending to SMEs [15][16] - The report discusses a divergence between production and pricing, with April's PPI dropping to -2.7% and companies lowering prices to maintain market share, which in turn affects capital return rates and further constrains financing expansion [16][17] Group 3 - The financial product return rates are declining due to lower entity return rates, leading to a shift in market focus towards stable returns, particularly in dividend stocks and small-cap investments, creating a "barbell" investment strategy [20][21] - The report suggests that this investment strategy will continue until excess capital accumulation leads to volatility that disrupts the current crowded positioning in the market [20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税再次发生变化，俄罗斯军事遭受重创，地缘关税变得更加复杂，短期不确 | | | 强势补涨 | 定性仍然较多。央行或继续购金。长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑 | | | | 途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 黄金大涨或带动白银走高，目前全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不 大，各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银跟随黄金波动，价格没有摆 | | | | 脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8450】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 端午假期，特朗普威胁把进口钢铁关税提高至 50%,中美贸易摩擦恐再生变故，俄 乌战争烈度或增加，地缘风险飙升，伦铜震荡回升，COMEX 铜涨超 3%，沪铜或高 | | | | 开高走，建议逢低轻仓试多，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77500，79000】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 端午假期，伦锌小幅反弹，国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求 淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌上方空间或有限，长期看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI index, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials segment, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the cement market price is currently at 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down by 6.3 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [20][21] 2. Cement Market - The average cement inventory ratio is reported at 65.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week, but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 47.8%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous week but down by 5.3 percentage points compared to last year [25] - The report notes that the cement price is expected to stabilize or slightly rebound in the coming months due to supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [12][19] 3. Glass Fiber Market - The report indicates that the profitability of the glass fiber sector remains low, with many second and third-tier companies operating at breakeven or loss [13] - The demand for high-end products in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to continue growing, which may support profitability for leading companies [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others such as Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Fiberglass [13] 4. Glass Market - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report recommends Qibin Group as a leading player in the glass market, with a focus on its cost advantages and growth potential in photovoltaic glass [14] 5. Home Decoration Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to enhance the demand for home decoration materials [16] - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [16]

弘则策略 宏观迷雾逐步消散 20250530 摘要 中美贸易关系复杂，虽有摩擦，但相互依存。中国通过加强与东盟、欧 盟等非美地区的贸易合作，维持出口韧性，转口贸易策略显著。 对等关税增加美国进口成本，中国出口面临压力，但通过多元化贸易伙 伴缓解。欧盟和日本采取拖延战术，贸易协议达成时间可能推迟。 短期内，中国出口表现优于预期，但下半年可能回落。若联邦法院撤销 部分关税，将缓解紧张关系，延长影响周期。 美国 2025 年实际 GDP 增速预期下调，受关税影响显著。中国二季度出 口预计增长 7%，全年 GDP 预测约为 4.75%，下半年贸易和投资数据 下滑。 中国房地产投资低于预期，政策方面，下半年财政加码可能性大，或通 过特别国债和新增专项债项目支持经济，但总体思路是托而不举。 美元贬值趋势明确，但各国宽松货币政策形成牵制。美联储偏鹰派及通 胀预期走高导致货币政策偏紧，广场协议 2.0 可能性不大。 人民币存在升值预期，年底有望接近 7。日本经济面临成本推动型通胀， 央行维持超宽松货币政策，对日债需保持谨慎。 Q&A 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化是什么？ 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化包括中美贸易谈判的不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating stance of the Trump administration regarding the trade war with China, highlighting the significant impact on both the U.S. economy and public sentiment towards Trump's policies [2][4][24]. Trade War Dynamics - Trump's trade war has led to a chaotic global economic environment, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on various countries, particularly China, in an attempt to exert pressure [4][24]. - The tariffs on Chinese goods have escalated to 145%, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, resulting in a substantial decoupling of U.S.-China trade relations [5][9]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The high tariffs have caused American consumers to face increased living costs, as many goods are sourced from China, which are typically cheaper and of good quality [7][11]. - U.S. farmers have been adversely affected, losing significant market share to countries like Brazil for agricultural exports, leading to dissatisfaction among American farmers [9][11]. Shift in Trump's Strategy - After facing backlash from the American public and economic downturns, Trump sought to ease tensions with China, leading to a temporary agreement on tariffs [12][16]. - Despite reaching an agreement, Trump continues to target China in other areas, such as technology and education, indicating a persistent adversarial approach [14][18]. Future Relations - Trump's initial plans to visit China have been stalled, reflecting a lack of genuine intent to negotiate, as he has not lifted tariffs [20][22]. - The article suggests that Trump's approach may ultimately harm the U.S. economy more than it benefits, as American industries rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing and resources [18][24].

自特朗普执政以来，中美的关系一直走下坡路，甚至一度降到了冰点。 美国更是无所不用其极，关税战打的啪啪响，还在科技和教育等方面给予压力，但似乎没得到一个理想 的结果。 本以为没了退路，但还是出现了转机，中美顺利完成通话，特朗普也是在无意中给我们送上了惊喜。 与此同时，万斯也低下头，承认他们败了，到底是什么情况？ 一、中美通话也许是一个好开端 特朗普自从上台就总是大言不惭，非说中国会主动打电话求和，实际上真正等电话的人是美国。 不管是之前的日内瓦谈话，还是此次电联，主动把电话打过来的都是美方，由此可以看出，焦急的人并 不是我们。 近日外交部对外发布了通告，二十二号，美副国务卿兰多主动把电话打了过来，与我国的副外长马朝旭 进行通话。 这一次通话主要是谈了谈两国关系以及双方都在意的一些问题，同时两边都同意会保持沟通。 虽然只是一次简单的通话，并不能说明当前的贸易谈判有了突破口，不过"保持沟通"这4个简单的字却 能够释放出积极的信号。 在后续的磋商过程中，关税壁垒确实有所松懈，然而美国针对我国商品依然维持着比较高的关税。 当然，我国也不是吃素的，不可能甘愿做砧板上的鱼肉，因此采取了不少反制政策，其中最显著的莫过 于对稀 ...

更何况，最近靠着一招反复折腾关税操控资本市场，带着自己的亲朋好友们早早埋伏，没少赚美刀啊。 中美谈的是有90天的缓冲期，且还早着呢，不必着急早早的出结果。 最近这段时间暂停加征关税，可以让美国国内囤一波货，懂王也能缓缓。压力没那么大了，就可以换个 姿势作妖了，东大这边没有放松稀土出口，美国那边也在想办法加筹码，只是我认为不给中国学生签证 其实真的毫无意义，留学生的名声到底要怎么挽回来呢？董大姐私下里对留学生的评价，4+4风波，美 帝还真以为这一招能拿捏谁，那也是错判了行情。 之前懂王就把白宫的华裔幕僚都赶走了，因为他们提供了错误的讯息，这倒不是这帮高华们有意误导， 实在是这帮人无非是各种型号的章家敦。傲慢和偏见让他们根本看不清中国，只是一味地揣摩懂王的心 思，在那里胡说八道，等懂王发现上当了，已经掉坑里了。 现在无非是从一个坑掉另一个坑，凭空造出来的牌没什么作用，只能拖呗。 懂王那边着急的是推自己的大美丽法案。就这个法案，现在引发全美上下一片骚动，法案1000多页，估 计没几个人有耐心看完。不过网上有很多关于法案的解读，我看了半天，核心就四个字：劫贫济富，堵 死穷人占国家便宜的各种路子，让富人缴更少的税，让美 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].