Group 1 - There is a significant divergence in economic outlook between Western and Eastern investors, influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policy, geopolitical risks, and currency devaluation threats [1][3] - American retail investors are experiencing a wave of profit-taking, shifting from aggressive gold purchases to large-scale selling, reflecting a stark contrast in sentiment compared to Asian investors [3][5] - In Asia, there is a surge in demand for gold, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% increase in demand for gold bars and coins in the Asia-Pacific region in Q1 2025, particularly driven by a 12% increase in China and over 30% growth in countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia [5][6] Group 2 - Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs initially triggered a strong rebound in gold demand in Asia, with local currency devaluation fears further driving gold purchases [6] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 for gold next year, while Morgan Stanley predicts gold will reach $3,800 by the end of this year; in contrast, Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [8] - The sentiment among American retail investors has shifted, as they now perceive that tariff policies may not be as detrimental as previously thought, leading to a reduction in gold holdings and a preference for risk assets [8]

基本面： 周一（6月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金下探刷新一个月低点至3247美元附近后反弹回升，目前交投于3278美元附近。上周五金价大幅下跌2%，触及近一个月 低点，收报3274.37美元/盎司，周线跌幅高达2.8%，创下连续两周周线收跌的记录。美股上周五延续涨势，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下纪录收盘新 高，贸易协议希望提振投资者的风险偏好，经济数据帮助巩固了对美联储将降息的预期。在美国总统特朗普因加拿大对科技公司征收数字税而叫停与加拿大 的贸易谈判后，股市缩减涨幅。即便如此，美国三大股指周线均上涨。 上周四，中美就加快向美国出口稀土达成贸易协议，这一消息被市场视为积极信号，显著提振了全球股市表现。美国华尔街股市延续涨势，标普500指数和 纳斯达克指数双双创下纪录收盘新高。投资者对贸易紧张局势缓解的乐观情绪推动了风险偏好的上升，削弱了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。黄金价格因 此承压，上周五单日下跌2%，反映了市场对风险资产的追逐。 美国总统特朗普表示，7月9日的贸易谈判截止日期并非固定不变，并暗示可能提前或延后。这一表态为市场注入了更多的不确定性。尽管美国财政部长贝森 特乐观表示，特朗普政府有望在9月1日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 合成橡胶成本定价逻辑偏强，关注供给端扰动与去库进度 | 投资观点： | 短期偏弱震荡，等待下半年反弹机会 | 合成橡胶（BR） | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-6-30 | 半年报告 | ⚫ 行情回顾 上半年 BR 期货价格重心偏低，整体波动性减弱。4 月受中美关税升 级及丁二烯供给过剩拖累，价格跌破 12000 元/吨。5 月中因中美关税缓和 预期及恒力装置故障导致丁二烯短缺预期，价格短暂冲高。随后基本面弱 势主导，价格重回底部震荡。近期因地缘冲突推涨原油带动 BR 小幅上 行，但涨幅有限，走势仍与天胶高度相关。 单边：短期盘面偏弱震荡运行，建议投资者观望； 套利：关注多 BR 空 NR/RU 价差回归。 ⚫ 风险提示 地缘冲突升级、关税政策影响、轮胎出口超预期回暖、天然橡胶主 产区极端天气导致价差逻辑反转。 ⚫ 原料端：产油国增产持续推进，地缘局势导致盘面短期冲高上行 原油： 上半年震荡下行，主因 OPEC+持续增产至 7 月及供需宽松预 期强化。短期地缘冲突推高波动，但中长期宽松格局未改。 丁二烯： 上半年价格波动大 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 偏弱 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。近期地缘风险 溢价挤出，油价重回基本面定价，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产 能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着 增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保 护。SC【490-510】 LPG 偏弱 地缘缓和，成本端下降，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本端原油回 落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4170-4300】 L 空头盘整 成交放缓，上中游库存显著下滑，库存压力缓解，成本端原油走弱。淡季 继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为-12（环比-2），近期装置重启增多，预计 本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。需求淡季，下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存 去化力度。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 仓单降低，停车比例升至 18%，地缘降温，成本端原油、甲醇回落。现货 市场成交乏力，华东基差为 87（环比+6）。近期检修力度加剧，预计本周 产 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 尽管降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价格大幅回调。， | | | | 中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金大幅调整。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上 | | | | 做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜围绕 8 万关 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风 | | | | 险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，秘鲁大型锌冶炼减产，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，关注上 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 方缺口压力位，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the rubber industry is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of rubber has been falsified, and new driving factors need to be awaited. The overall price range is adjusted from the initial forecast of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton to 12,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The upward trend may be driven by supply - side factors such as weather and policies, while the downward trend may be dragged by macro factors like tariff policies and global economic recession expectations [8][86] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Review of the performance of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber - In the first half of 2025, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply. In Q1, it remained in a high - level sideways pattern, and in Q2, prices dropped from the high level due to factors such as increased exports from overseas rubber - producing countries, a significant increase in domestic imports, and US reciprocal tariffs. In Q1, the RU index oscillated between 16,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. In January, prices fluctuated, with raw material prices dropping significantly compared to Q4, and increasing domestic imports and seasonal inventory accumulation suppressing prices. In February, prices rose after the Spring Festival due to seasonal production cuts overseas. In March, the rumored state reserve purchase had limited impact on the market. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in Q2, the "reciprocal tariff" in the US affected the market, and the increase in import data in March (18% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year) also influenced prices. The significant increase in exports from rubber - producing countries and domestic imports in the first half of the year falsified the previous long - term logic, and prices fell back to the level of the same period in 2024 [14][15] 1.2 Review of spreads and price differences - In the first half of the year, state reserve purchases and capital actions strongly disturbed the spreads of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber. In mid - April, after the rumor of the state reserve purchasing 2024 full - latex warehouse receipts, the 9 - 5 and 1 - 9 spreads of Shanghai rubber narrowed rapidly. The 9 - 5 spread even reached a negative level, and the 1 - 9 spread dropped from over 1,000 yuan/ton to below 700 yuan/ton. Later, the 9 - 5 spread gradually recovered, but the 1 - 9 spread remained at a relatively low level at the end of June. For No. 20 rubber, in Q1, the spot was tight, and the spreads showed a backwardation structure. In Q2, although imports increased, capital actions led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts, and the spreads strengthened again. By the end of June, the spreads weakened but still showed a slight premium. In the third quarter, as production increased, the spreads may return to the previous premium pattern [19][23] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 The Fed lowers economic expectations, raises inflation and unemployment expectations, and internal differences widen - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the fourth consecutive time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% and the monthly balance - sheet reduction limit at $40 billion. Due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Fed remains cautious. The June economic forecast solidifies the "stagflation" expectation, with economic growth being lowered and unemployment and inflation being raised. The Fed believes that tariffs will have a "one - time" impact on inflation. The internal differences in the Fed are mainly due to the uncertainty of US tariff negotiations and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [24][27] 2.2 Geopolitical situation and tariff policies disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty - US tariff policies disrupt global trade, causing a 0.2% year - on - year decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, a 2.9 - percentage - point drop compared to before the tariff war. Multiple international institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2025. The recent escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. This has put central banks in a dilemma between fighting inflation and stabilizing growth [28][34] 3. Upstream and downstream of the industrial chain 3.1 Upstream supply and raw materials - The total planting area of ANRPC is at a high level with a slight downward trend. The new planting area has increased in some countries but cannot offset the reduction in the original planting area. The supply - side output price elasticity still exists. In 2024, global natural rubber production increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Emerging rubber - producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire have seen rapid growth, partially offsetting concerns about the decline in traditional rubber - producing countries. The second half of the year is the peak production season for natural rubber, and the supply is expected to increase [35][47] 3.2 Imports and inventories - In the first half of 2025, domestic imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly. In May, the total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a 23.5% increase. As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly. The absolute value of domestic inventory is still at a moderately high level. With the increase in new rubber supply in the second half of the year, imports are expected to rise, and the inventory reduction in the middle - stream may slow down before the third quarter [50][52] 3.3 Downstream demand - Tire production growth is slowing down. In May 2025, the output of Chinese tire casings decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of both all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. The all - steel tire market was supported by policies and exports, but the replacement market was weak. The semi - steel tire market faced increasing production and sales pressure due to rising inventory and new production capacity coming online. In the automotive market, production and sales increased in the first five months of 2025, with the passenger car and new - energy vehicle markets performing well. The heavy - truck market showed a slight increase in sales, mainly due to the implementation of the old - for - new policy [57][68] 4. Cost - profit and spread analysis 4.1 Cost - profit analysis - The losses of Thai latex and No. 20 rubber production have been partially repaired. Since May, continuous rain in the Thai production area has affected tapping, leading to an increase in raw material prices. Factories are stocking EUDR raw materials, and the price difference between EUDR raw materials and general raw materials has narrowed compared to last year [72] 4.2 Futures - spot spread analysis - In 2025, the non - standard arbitrage spread has fully returned. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the price of dark - colored rubber has been strong, and the spread between dark - and light - colored rubber has widened. In May 2025, NR was significantly stronger than RU, and the spread between them reached a multi - year high. The spread between RU2509 and mixed rubber also fully returned, with RU2509 trading at a rare discount to the mixed - rubber spot in late May. Later, attention should be paid to the spread trading opportunities such as going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509, and going long on RU and short on NR [75][85]

目前全球原油市场供应充裕，价格维持于约每桶70美元的水平，属历史中低区间。尽管近期中东局势紧 张，但原油实际供应未见明显受阻。 施罗德投资资深经济师George rown及施罗德投资能源基金经理Malcolm elville指，回顾过往数据，只有 当油价升幅达50%或以上，才足以对整体通胀构成实质威胁。这需要布伦特原油价格升穿每桶100美 元，能源价格对整体通胀的影响才会变得显著。施罗德投资指出，油价和通胀之间的关系显示，油价每 上升10%，对整体通胀的影响仅为约0.1%。 施罗德投资提到，中东冲突持续扰乱金融市场，但其影响或许低于投资者预期。尽管美国出手干预，市 场反应保持冷静。布伦特原油一度升穿每桶81美元，但随即回落至过去一周的波动区间。全球冲突往往 影响通胀，继而拖累整体经济和市场表现，而能源价格是其中一个关键因素。这就是为什么在地缘政治 动荡期间，油价会成为市场焦点。 油价已反映风险溢价 霍尔木兹海峡担忧或被夸大 针对船运在理论上存在风险，但更重要的是，经霍尔木兹海峡运出的原油其实大多来自伊朗的邻国。若 伊朗意图扰乱该航道，势必涉及对国际船运采取激进行动，这不仅会令伊朗进一步陷入被全球孤立的困 境， ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：地缘缓解，原油回落 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-06-30 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：目前原油价格是石化板块关注的焦点，当下原油的价格主要取决于地缘计价，但地缘进展目前具 备不确定性。此外，成品油逐步步入消费旺季，成品油库存压力减弱对油价或有支撑。 ◼ 回顾：本周因原油价格下行，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对表现最差，报收2202.18点， 较上周下跌2.07%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周其他石化表现在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅 1.49%。 ◼ 原油：本周价格下行。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存部分下滑。 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格稳中带涨，价差走缩。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数部分下滑，织机开工率下滑。 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格微涨，库存周内下行。 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].