Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Neutral [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Bullish [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Bullish [2] - Platinum: Neutral [2] - Palladium: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Iron Ore: Bearish [2] - Rebar: Bearish [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish [2] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral [2] - Silicomanganese: Neutral [2] - Coke: Neutral [2] - Coking Coal: Neutral [2] - Steam Coal: Bearish [2] - Logs: Bearish [2] - Paraxylene: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [2] - MEG: Neutral [2] - Rubber: Bearish [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Neutral [2] - LLDPE: Bearish [2] - PP: Bearish [2] - Caustic Soda: Bearish [2] - Pulp: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Methanol: Neutral [2] - Urea: Neutral [2] - Styrene: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2] - LPG: Neutral [2] - Propylene: Neutral [2] - PVC: Bearish [2] - Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Neutral [2] - Staple Fiber: Neutral [2] - Bottle Chip: Neutral [2] - Offset Printing Paper: Bearish [2] - Pure Benzene: Neutral [2] - Palm Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Meal: Neutral [2] - Soybean: Neutral [2] - Corn: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Bearish [2] - Cotton: Bullish [2] - Eggs: Neutral [2] - Hogs: Bearish [2] - Peanuts: Neutral [2] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. It assesses the current situation of each commodity based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic news, and gives corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities. For example, for gold, the rising risk - aversion sentiment is noted; for copper, the strengthening of LME spot and firm price are emphasized; for zinc, it is expected to trade in a range. Each commodity's analysis takes into account its unique fundamentals and market news [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. ETF holdings have slightly changed, and inventories have different trends. Macro - economic news such as China's economic data and geopolitical issues may affect the price [6]. - **Silver**: The price is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations. Similar to gold, there are changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventories. The price of silver futures and spot shows certain volatility [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot has strengthened, and the price remains firm. The trading volume of domestic and international copper futures has decreased, and the open interest has changed slightly. The inventory of LME copper has increased, while that of SHFE copper has decreased. The premium of LME copper has increased. Macro - economic news and industry - related events such as Chile's copper mine plan and power grid investment may impact the price [10]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to trade in a range. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The inventory of LME zinc has decreased, and the premium has changed. China's economic data and EU - US trade issues are the influencing factors [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME lead has decreased significantly [16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The price of domestic tin futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of SHFE tin has decreased, and the price of spot tin has declined [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price of domestic aluminum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME aluminum has decreased. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production and the price of alumina are important factors [24]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to continue to decline. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The average price of domestic alumina has declined [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Platinum**: It is expected to trade in a box - shaped range. The price of platinum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Palladium**: It follows the range - bound trend. The price of palladium futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Nickel**: The repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, and the nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of domestic nickel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. Indonesia's policies on nickel mining and production are the key influencing factors [32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream procurement has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upstream production cuts have disturbed the market, and the price of the futures has rebounded. The price of industrial silicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The inventory of industrial silicon has changed slightly [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news. The price of polysilicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of polysilicon has increased [40]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of iron ore futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of imported iron ore has declined [43]. - **Rebar**: Affected by emergencies, the raw materials have dragged down the finished products. The price of rebar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rebar has declined [46]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, affected by emergencies and raw - material drag. The price of hot - rolled coil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot hot - rolled coil has declined [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand - side expectation is tightening, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot ferrosilicon has declined [50]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to ferrosilicon, with tightening demand - side expectation and wide - range fluctuations. The price of silicomanganese futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot silicomanganese has declined [50]. - **Coke**: Affected by downstream accidents, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coke futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coke has remained stable [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coking coal futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coking coal has remained stable [54]. - **Steam Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to have a weak adjustment. The price of steam coal in various regions has declined [58]. - **Logs**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of log futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot logs has remained stable [60]. - **Paraxylene**: The cost is weak, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of paraxylene futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot paraxylene has remained stable [64]. - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee. The price of PTA futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PTA has increased [64]. - **MEG**: The downward space of valuation is limited. The price of MEG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of MEG in ports has decreased slightly [64]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rubber has declined [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to be in a short - term weak operation. The price of synthetic rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot synthetic rubber has declined [76]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products has increased, and the spot trading has weakened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LLDPE has remained stable [79]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. The price of PP futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PP has declined [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: The downward trend still has pressure. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the price of spot caustic soda has declined [84]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of pulp futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pulp has remained stable [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot glass has remained stable [94]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of methanol futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot methanol has declined [97]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The price of urea futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot urea has remained stable [102]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The price of styrene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot styrene has increased [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soda ash has remained stable [108]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. The price of LPG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LPG has changed [113]. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The price of propylene futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot propylene has remained stable [113]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PVC has remained stable [120]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term fluctuation will decrease. The price of fuel oil futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot low - sulfur fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is expected to be in a temporary oscillation market. The price of the index futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The shipping capacity, geopolitical situation, and demand factors are the key influencing factors [125]. - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee is at a low level. The price of staple - fiber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot staple fiber has declined [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of bottle - chip futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot bottle chip has declined [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The price of offset - printing - paper futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot offset printing paper has remained stable [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation. The price of pure - benzene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pure benzene has increased [150]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of production cuts. The price of palm - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot palm oil has remained stable [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The themes of US soybeans are insufficient, and the rebound height is limited. The price of soybean - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean oil has increased slightly [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the closure of the US soybean market overnight, the domestic soybean - meal futures followed the rapeseed - meal futures to correct. The price of soybean - meal futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean meal has declined [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The price of soybean futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean has remained stable [159]. - **Corn**: The price has corrected. The price of corn futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot corn has declined [162]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be sorted at a low level. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot sugar has declined [165]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot cotton has declined [171]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment of the far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has declined, and the trading volume has changed. The price of spot eggs has increased [178]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has weakened, and the expectation of the peak season has decreased. The price of hog futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot hogs has declined [181]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of peanut futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot peanuts has remained stable [185].

中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/ 10-0920 China Futures Daily Note 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's GDP Surpassed 140 Trillion Yuan in 2025, Growing by 5.0%。 Futures ...

格隆汇1月20日｜纽约期金突破4680美元/盎司，日内涨1.83%。钯金期货日内涨3%，现报1887.10美元/ 盎司。美国天然气期货涨超15%，现报3.576美元/百万英热。 ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Futures - The iron ore market sentiment has declined, with the main contract dropping by 2.58% to 794 yuan/ton due to an inability of the fundamentals to support high valuations [1][5] - Analysts from ANZ noted that the early morning price drop was driven by increased supply, particularly with the first shipment of iron ore from the newly opened Simandou mine in Guinea, expected to add up to 120 million tons of high-grade iron ore [1][5] - Despite strong demand from Chinese steel mills, rising inventory levels at major ports have raised concerns, with a week-on-week increase reported by Steel Home [1][5] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The main contract for lithium carbonate fell by 3.83% to 147,260 yuan/ton, continuing its downward trend due to weakening demand in the off-season [2][6] - Everbright Futures indicated that the price increases of raw materials like copper and aluminum have not yet shown negative feedback from the end market, and adjustments in export tax rebates may lead to increased export activity [2][6] - Inventory data from SMM showed a decrease in the turnover days for downstream inventory to around 9 days, suggesting that price drops could stimulate purchasing activity [2][6] Group 3: Live Pig Futures - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a record high pork production of 59.38 million tons for 2025, an increase of 2.32 million tons or 4.1%, leading to a significant drop in live pig futures, which fell to 11,400 yuan, a near one-month low [3][7] - Newhu Futures expects the negative impact of the official data on the market to dissipate quickly, but medium-term supply pressures remain, particularly with high numbers of new piglets born [3][8] - Despite the current bearish trend, there are indications of a potential new upward cycle in live pig prices, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions for bulk commodities [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 19, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper declined. Although there is short - term demand slump, the copper fundamentals remain tight. With the decline in mining and smelting, and the continuous implementation of domestic stable - growth policies, the price is in a stage of correction [8][10]. - **Silver and Gold**: Shanghai silver and gold futures rose, with significant capital inflows into their relevant contracts [5][6]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin futures fell by more than 5% [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It showed a downward trend overall. Despite supply - side disturbances, the strong demand for exports keeps the overall situation strong, but one should be cautious about market sentiment [11]. - **Iron Ore**: It fell by nearly 3%, and there was significant capital outflow from its relevant contracts [5][6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintained the production plan, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. With geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions, the price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand will further slow down. Affected by the situation in Venezuela, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate has increased, but the downstream demand is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. With the impact of export policies, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price decline has slowed down. With the increase in winter storage, the market is expected to improve [20]. - **Urea**: The price declined. Although the supply is stable, the downstream procurement has not kept up with the futures price increase. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The performance of different stock index futures varied. The IF and IC contracts rose, while the IH contract fell slightly, and the IM contract rose slightly [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract remained flat, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts declined [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including domestic and international economic data, policy announcements, and speeches by important figures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This week's key concerns - On January 19th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 national economic operation [2][4]. - On January 20th at 09:00, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for January 20th will be announced, expected to remain unchanged [2][8]. - On January 22nd at 21:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the US GDP in Q3 2025 [2][12]. - On January 22nd at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for November 2025 [2][14]. This week's hot - spot preview - **January 19th** - The monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities will be released at 09:30, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [3]. - The press conference on the 2025 national economic operation will be held at 10:00. Expected Q4 GDP growth in 2025 is 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth is expected to be 5.1% [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 annual meeting will be held from January 19th to 23rd, with leaders from over 130 countries participating. Vice - Premier He Lifeng and President Trump will attend [5]. - **January 20th** - The 1 - year LPR is expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year or more LPR is expected to be 3.50%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. If so, it will have a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [8]. - **January 21st** - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [9]. - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report at 17:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - President Trump will give a speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting at 21:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [11]. - **January 22nd** - The final value of the US Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate is expected to be 4.3% [12]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 12th is expected to be 200,000. A slight increase may mildly suppress the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but help the price increase of precious metal futures [13]. - The annual rate of the US PCE price index in November 2025 is expected to be 2.8%, and the core PCE price index annual rate is also expected to be 2.8% [14]. - The monthly rate of US personal income in November 2025 is expected to be 0.2% [15]. - **January 23rd** - If the EIA crude oil inventory continues to increase in the week ending January 16th, it will suppress the price increase of crude oil and related closing futures [16]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep the policy benchmark interest rate at 0.75% [17]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is expected to be 49 [18]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area consumer confidence index in January is expected to be - 12.5 [19]. - If the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but suppress the price of precious metal futures [20]. - **January 24th** - The market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in mid - January will be announced, covering 9 categories and 50 kinds of products [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is currently in a state of weak adjustment. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the futures are at a discount. In the short - term, it shows a slightly weak oscillation, but the overall downside space is limited [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the day, closing at 794 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 2.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 396,000 lots, the open interest was 616,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.766 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port and Super Special powder, both dropped by 8 yuan. The price of the main swap contract was 104.65 (-1.35) US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 841.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.2 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping is relatively stable. There may be hurricane and rainfall disturbances in Australia and Brazil. The high - volume shipments in the early stage are arriving at ports one after another. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated. The overall inventory pressure was still building up. The downstream replenishment demand and market sentiment supported the futures and spot prices [2]. Macro - level - **Overseas**: Consumption provides support, inflation declines, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion range, with regional performance differentiation. Employment is mainly for filling vacancies, and labor employment is relatively stable. Price pressure has generally eased, but there are still differences in tariff - related categories [4]. - **Domestic**: Incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current fundamental reality is still in the off - season, but the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the implementation of early - batch projects since January are also expected to continue. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the steel market showed a stable and slightly stronger trend, with a divergence between the supply - demand fundamentals and macro sentiment. Despite the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and the cooling of market risk appetite, the rebar industry remained relatively stable with a slight inventory reduction, providing bottom support for prices. - In the future, building material demand will face seasonal weakening pressure, but steel enterprise production will continue to recover. Rebar will start seasonal inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the raw material replenishment demand of steel enterprises before the Spring Festival will continue to support the prices of furnace materials, and the cost side will still have support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was stable and slightly stronger this week. The rebar industry was relatively stable with minor inventory reduction, despite the volatile commodity market and cooling risk appetite. - In the future, building material demand will weaken seasonally, steel production will recover, rebar will accumulate inventory seasonally, and cost support from raw material replenishment will keep prices fluctuating. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons (-0.65%). - Rebar mill inventory was 142.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.27 million tons (-3.56%). - Rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23 million tons (1.80%). - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 76.53 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons (-1.02%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01 million tons (-1.72%). [4] Futures Market Review - There are figures related to the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (volume/position). [7][10] Spot Market Review - There are figures related to rebar prices in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot prices (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis. [15][16] Fundamental Data - There are figures related to the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar and hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis. [18][22][25]

Report Investment Rating - The industry is expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the sales progress in Xinjiang has reached 80%, with 20% of the cotton remaining. The futures price has reached the first target of 15,000 yuan/ton, and funds have reduced their positions by 110,000 lots. Considering the capital cost, it's about 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. Currently, there are 420,000 tons of warehouse receipts, and the inland delivery storage capacity is saturated and tight. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area may be limited, but the demand for cotton in Xinjiang is expanding. Due to the rapid rise in raw material prices, the immediate profit of yarn has been significantly compressed, downstream inventory has increased, and the operating rate has decreased. With the Spring Festival approaching and the price difference of imported yarn widening, the futures need to cooperate with a short - term correction. Overall, it should be treated as a short - to medium - term decline or a sideways movement, but the correction depth is limited [5]. - For cotton yarn, it gets support from the raw material end, while there is no obvious improvement in orders from the demand end. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, so cotton yarn will continue to follow the volatile market in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Xinjiang's sales progress is 80%, futures price has reached 15,000 yuan/ton, funds have reduced positions. There are issues with storage capacity, cost, demand, and downstream conditions, suggesting short - to medium - term decline or sideways movement [5]. - Cotton yarn: Supported by raw materials, but with no obvious improvement in demand, it will follow the volatile market [5]. 02. Market Review - Zheng cotton fluctuated sharply after reaching a relatively high level. The immediate profits of Xinjiang and inland spinning enterprises have been compressed, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not large. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zheng cotton, many spinning enterprises made point - price purchases based on the locked basis earlier. There is still rigid demand for cotton raw materials, and the hedging pressure above Zheng cotton is small. The industry expectations have been traded in stages. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27. If the reduction is large, it will be beneficial to cotton prices in the long - term. Also, if the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to widen, attention should be paid to the import of foreign cotton at a 40% tariff and the possibility of the state reserve releasing imported cotton [8]. - The sales of pure cotton yarn categories are clearly differentiated. Low - count and regular categories face prominent sales pressure, with actual transaction prices dropping or offering discounts of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere is weak. However, the orders for combed high - count yarn are continuously good, with firm prices and relatively good order schedules [8]. 03. International Macroeconomics - In the US, data such as ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, export and import volumes, trade balance, unemployment rate, CPI, PPI, and retail sales have been released. The Fed's interest rate decision is pending [10]. - In the Eurozone, CPI, PPI, and unemployment rate data have been released, and some data for January 19 are pending [10]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, new RMB loans, and some data for January 19 (including GDP, retail sales, and unemployment rate) are involved [12]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's January report, in the 2025/26 global cotton market, production decreased by 77,000 tons to 2.6004 million tons, consumption increased by 68,000 tons to 2.5891 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 1.6217 million tons [15][16]. - In terms of major cotton - producing countries, China's production increased, while that of India and the US decreased. China's demand is expected to increase, and other countries' demand is stable [16]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of January 8, 2026, the US has cumulatively signed 1.623 million tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, reaching 61.11% of the expected export volume, and has shipped 748,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 46.08%. China has cumulatively signed 85,000 tons, accounting for 5.26% of the signed volume, and has shipped 36,000 tons [20]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 23.51% from the previous month and 1.75% from the same period last year. The industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased steadily. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.7685 million tons, an increase of 113,900 tons from last year and 435,600 tons from the previous month [23]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increased - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.4% and a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% [26]. - In November 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 25% and a month - on - month increase of about 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [26]. 10. December Cotton Yarn Output Increased Year - on - Year - In December, the price of pure cotton yarn was weak in the first half and then increased with the rise of Zheng cotton. The actual transaction of cotton yarn did not increase as much as cotton, so the industry profit shrank severely, especially for inland spinning enterprises, which had more production - limiting phenomena. The new textile project in Kashgar was put into production, and the spinning capacity in Xinjiang expanded further. The output of pure cotton yarn in December was 491,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [27]. 11. US Cotton Weather - As of January 6, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected that the drought will intensify in the first quarter due to the weak La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter [33]. 12. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of January 15, 2026, 1097 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 30,650,301 bales of cotton, with a weight of 6.9188 million tons [35]. 13. Textile Industry Inventory - In November, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.084 trillion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 21 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 2.184 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 1 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.872 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 93 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 992 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 64 billion yuan [39]. 14. Domestic Demand Remained Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [44]. 15. External Demand Exports Weakened - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. From January to December, the cumulative exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42% [47]. 16. US Clothing Retail in October 2025 - In October 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the inventory of US clothing and clothing accessories retailers was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [51]. 17. US Textile and Clothing Imports in October 2025 - In October 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 8.224 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.36%. The import amount was $8.414 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.79% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.82%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 87.005 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.63%. The import volume of US cotton products was 1.308 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.58%. The import amount was $3.419 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.65%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 14.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [56]. 18. Warehouse Receipts Increased Rapidly - As of January 15, the number of warehouse receipts was 9,329, with 1,209 valid forecasts, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,538, an increase of 576 from the previous week [58]. 19. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decreased - As of January 6, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market were - 28,220, an increase of 1,614 from the previous week. The net long positions of non - commercial futures only were - 28,920, an increase of 2,037. The net long positions of commodity index funds were 54,110, an increase of 550 [62]. 20. Load Changes - As of January 16, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 62.10, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 47.50, the same as the previous week; the load of pure polyester yarn was 55.54, a decrease of 1.16 from the previous week. The load of yarn and grey fabric decreased seasonally [66]. 21. Industrial Chain Inventory - The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 32.72 days, an increase of 1.32 days from the previous week; the cotton yarn inventory was 26.90 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from the previous week; the inventory of pure cotton grey fabric was 36.60 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week. As it enters the off - season of consumption, inventory begins to accumulate [70]. 22. Industrial Chain Profit - The sales of the pure cotton yarn market basically continued the previous week's trend, mainly with rigid - demand sales. The demand for high - count and combed yarn above 40S was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. Spinning mills were under pressure. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning enterprises had a loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was about - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline, and the inventory increased. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [75].