Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferro - Manganese Silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro situation has been settled, and the contradictions are limited. Rebar shows a supply - demand double - weak off - season characteristic, and hot - rolled coil inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years. Both have weak driving forces, with rebar potentially weakening in the short - term and hot - rolled coil possibly having a short - term correction [3][4][5] - For iron ore, due to environmental control and losses in some steel mills, iron - making water production has decreased. The static fundamentals are neutral to bullish, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - For coke, the second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price remains strong [11] - For coking coal, the supply may be tightened in the future, and the demand has weakened marginally. However, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price remains strong [14] - For ferro - manganese silicon and silicon iron, the supply is at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. They are recommended to be treated bearishly [18][19] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Variety Views - Rebar: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The decline in iron - making water production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended with the implementation of tariff mitigation measures [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Both apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years [4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Rebar: The upward and downward driving forces are weak. It will maintain range - bound operation in the medium - term and may face short - term weakness [5] - Hot - rolled coil: The decrease in iron - making water production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It will operate in a range in the medium - term and may have a short - term correction [5] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different degrees of decline; spot prices also had fluctuations; basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Iron Ore Variety Views - This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental control in Tangshan and loss - based maintenance in some steel mills. Steel mills reduced inventory, and ports accumulated inventory. There is an expectation that foreign ore shipments will decline from the high level, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bullish [8] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [9] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of iron ore decreased, and spot prices also declined. There were changes in spreads, basis, and other data [6] Coke Variety Views - The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is coming. The profit of coke enterprises has improved slightly but is still mostly in a loss state. The steel mill inventory is at a medium - low level. Although there is maintenance in Tangshan due to environmental protection, the maintenance time is short. The iron - making water production has declined from the high level, but the short - term shipment of coke enterprises is good, and some steel mills are still replenishing inventory [11] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [12] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coke declined, and there were corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data. In terms of spot prices, there was no change, and there were also fluctuations in weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] Coking Coal Variety Views - Coal mine production and operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply - side inspection of over - production in November may be strengthened, and the uncertainty of the political situation in Mongolia continues to increase, with the expectation of tightened imports in the future. The iron - making water production has decreased significantly, and the demand has weakened marginally. The current supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy [14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [15] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of coking coal declined, and there were changes in basis, spreads, etc. Spot prices remained unchanged, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate also had corresponding fluctuations [13] Iron Alloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The supply in the production area is still at a high level in the same period, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has continued to increase compared with the previous period [18] - Silicon iron: The supply in the production area remains at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after the cancellation of warehouse receipts [18] Disk Operation Suggestions - Manganese silicon: The price of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price. Cautiously bearish [19] - Silicon iron: The fundamentals of silicon iron have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices. Bearish treatment [19] Price and Spread Data - Futures prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron declined, and spot prices also had fluctuations. There were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and operating rate [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, transactions in early November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower at 01 - 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4485 - 4540. Transactions in mid - and late - November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 71, considered neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4510, the basis of the 01 contract is - 76, and the futures is at a premium, considered neutral [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, considered bullish [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, considered bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was narrowly sorted out, and the spot basis weakened in the afternoon. Next - week's spot transactions fell back to a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the outer - disk center of ethylene glycol was sorted out at a low level, and recent cargo negotiations were carried out at 482 - 486 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiations. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions were 4087 - 4126 yuan/ton and 481 - 487 US dollars/ton respectively, considered neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4111, the basis of the 01 contract is 93, and the futures is at a discount, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period, considered bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, considered bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: A 3 - million - ton PTA new device in East China was put into production last weekend and has now produced products [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials has been fully increased, and the loads of the 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical have been increased [9]. 4. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, export, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data [12]. 6. Price Data - Provides price data for PTA, MEG, and related products on October 31 and 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [13]. 7. Other Data - Also includes data on bottle - grade PET prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, as well as data on PTA and MEG basis, spreads, inventory analysis, and polyester upstream and downstream operating rates [17][18][22][29][32][41][52][56]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 31, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index continued to adjust, and the prices of some commodities like iron ore and asphalt declined slightly [1][2][10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of different industries are changing. For instance, the steel market is facing a shift from macro - driven sentiment to industry reality, and the alumina industry is in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [11][12]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On October 31, the A - share market saw a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79 points (down 0.81%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 13378.21 points (down 1.14%), and the ChiNext Index at 3187.53 points (down 2.31%). The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4640.67, a decrease of 69.24 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and a third - round increase may start. The steel mills in some areas have production - limiting plans, and the finished product prices have slightly increased. The supply of raw materials may face pressure as the peak season for steel is ending. The daily consumption of coke is 107.96 million tons (- 0.47), and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71% (0.44) [5]. - Coking coal's supply increase is limited due to environmental protection and safety inspections, supporting its price. The spot prices of some coking coal varieties have changed, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors also shows different trends [6]. Sugar Futures - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 31. The night - session of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower due to long - position liquidation [7]. Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline in the night - session on October 31 due to technical factors. The 20 - number rubber futures had a larger decline due to an increase in inventory. The natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1425 tons, and the 20 - number rubber inventory increased by 2217 tons [7]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on October 31, the CBOT soybeans were strong, reaching a 15 - month high. After the China - US summit, the market expects China to increase its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.9%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal still exists [8]. Live Pig Futures - On October 31, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11815 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The secondary fattening activity has cooled down significantly, and the market supply has increased. The demand has a seasonal warming expectation, but the consumption recovery is limited. The "supply exceeds demand" situation in the live pig market remains unchanged [9]. Copper Futures - The Sino - US trade situation has eased, and the Fed cut interest rates slightly in October. However, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the copper price is suppressed. But overseas mine disruptions and low non - US inventories still support the copper price [9]. Cotton Futures - On the night of October 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13555 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 20 lots compared with the previous day, and the price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.15 - 6.45 yuan/kg [9]. Iron Ore Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.56% at 800 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the iron ore price is in a volatile trend due to the decline in the steel mill profitability rate and environmental protection control in Hebei [10]. Asphalt Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.58% at 3244 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released due to cooling and rainfall, and the asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil and shows a volatile trend [10]. Log Futures - On October 31, the 2601 log contract opened at 785, with the lowest at 783, the highest at 796.5, and closed at 787.5, with a daily reduction of 844 lots. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern [11]. Steel Futures - After the China - US summit, the market sentiment driven by macro - expectations has cooled down, and the steel price is returning to the industrial reality. In early November, the steel demand may not continue to grow, and the steel price may show a volatile trend [11]. Alumina Futures - The supply of alumina is still relatively large, but the output may be forced to converge as the spot price approaches the cost line. The demand for alumina is stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is close to the industry upper limit and has a high operating rate [12]. Aluminum Futures - The supply of alumina is relatively large, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting plants have good profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the warming of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: TA low processing fee has persisted for a long time, and the improving terminal data support the continuation of polyester operation. Pay attention to additional maintenance, and the processing fee center may gradually recover as far - month production is limited [2]. - MEG: EG is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase with a long - term bearish pattern, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and ratio. Focus on coal - based cost support [8]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The overall efficiency and operation of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly. Staple fiber exports remain highly increased. With acceptable spot efficiency, high operation is maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. Pay attention to opportunities to expand spreads at low prices and warehouse receipt situations [8]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. - Styrene: No clear long - term view is provided in the given data. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, crude oil increased by 0.1 to 65.1, PTA internal spot decreased by 25 to 4510, and PTA processing margin changed from 49 to 115. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2601(-70) [1][9]. - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 3 million - ton device was put into production, and some proximal TA devices reduced load with a slight decline in operation [1][2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by 25 to 740, MEG internal price decreased by 41 to 4106, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 5.8 to - 182. The basis was around 01(+76) [8]. - **Device Changes**: Fulian's 400,000 - ton device restarted. Proximal domestic oil - based devices restarted, and some overseas devices restarted [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: Daily changes from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 included a - 25 change in 1.4D cotton - type price, a 60 increase in low - melting - point staple fiber price, and a 10 profit increase. The spot price was around 6336, and the market basis was around 12 - 20 [8]. - **Device and Operation Changes**: Fujian Shanli restarted, with operation increasing to 96.8%, sales - to - production ratio weakened, and inventory remained stable. Polyester yarn operation was stable, with increased raw material inventory and finished - product inventory and slightly weakened efficiency [8]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: Daily changes on 2025/10/31 included a - 50 change in Shanghai full - latex price, a - 315 change in RU main contract price, and a - 295 change in NR main contract price. - **Strategy**: Due to stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup rubber price affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 750 on 2025/10/31, and benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 795 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of intense long - short game, with nickel prices oscillating in a range. The bearish logic lies in the high - level accumulation of smelting inventory and the expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore supply policies and the limited downward space of short - term pyrometallurgical costs [5]. - Stainless steel: The stainless - steel price shows a narrow - range oscillation at a low level. There is a lack of effective upward drivers and limited downward space. It is recommended to focus on a conservative low - level range strategy in the short term and a bottom - seeking long - entry strategy in the long term [6]. - Industrial silicon: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts are being depleted, providing a bottom support. The supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also weakening. It is advisable to take a long - position layout on dips [34]. - Polysilicon: There may be policy announcements next week, and the futures price is expected to rise and then fall. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [35]. - Lithium carbonate: In the short term, there is an expectation of a power - demand off - season, while in the long term, there is an expectation of growth in energy storage. The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. - Palm oil: The inventory de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow, and there may be a second downward exploration. The price may return to the range of 8200 - 8400 [84]. - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean price has rebounded, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties. However, it lacks an independent upward driver and is recommended for long - allocation [86]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses the price, while the uncertainty of the ore end provides support. For stainless steel, the price oscillates in a narrow range at a low level due to the lack of upward drivers and limited downward space [5][6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory of nickel - related products such as stainless steel has also shown certain changes [8]. - **Market News**: There are various news events related to the nickel market, including Indonesian ore - mining sanctions and policy announcements, as well as trade - related news [9][10][11]. - **Data Tracking**: Weekly key data of nickel and stainless steel futures, including prices, trading volumes, and related product prices, are tracked [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price increased. The polysilicon futures price continued to rise, while the spot price remained stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply shows a decreasing trend, and the demand is also weakening. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to contract, and the demand may decrease [30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon has bottom support due to the depletion of warehouse receipts, and polysilicon may experience a price increase and then a fall due to possible policy announcements [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract first rose and then fell, and the spot price increased [68]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The raw material price has increased, the inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the supply has decreased, and the demand shows a seasonal change [69]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views**: Palm oil was expected to test the support at 8200 - 8400, and soybean oil was expected to oscillate weakly following the oil sector [83]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil may have a second downward exploration due to slow inventory de - stocking in the producing areas. Soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties but lacks an independent upward driver [84][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month starting from November, and the demand is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The short - term disk is considered to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [7][8] - Polysilicon: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price showed a strong - side oscillation, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 9100 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9100 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 200) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 56410 yuan/ton on Friday, and the upstream spot price remained firm [2] 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The overall weekly production increased month - on - month, with an increase in the start - up rate in Inner Mongolia and a decrease in the southwest region. In November and December, the overall production is expected to decrease month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 million tons compared to last week, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.06 million tons [3] - Demand side: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The demand for polysilicon may decrease in the future, the demand from the organic silicon sector remained at a rigid level, and the terminal consumption space was limited. The aluminum alloy sector was operating at a low - load level, and the export market had some inquiry orders [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. Starting from November, the production of leading factories in the southwest will decrease, and the expected production will fall to 10 - 11 million tons. The inventory increased this week [5][6] - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly month - on - month, but the price of some specifications of silicon wafers decreased. There were some upstream - downstream orders, but the transaction price remained flat [6] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - Market outlook: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, but the disk has certain support. It is recommended to observe the daily registration/decline of warehouse receipts [7] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [8] Polysilicon - Market outlook: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. The supply and demand are both weak, and the 11 - 12 month period will see a small inventory reduction [8] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] 4. Hedging Recommendations - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [9]

Core Insights - COMEX copper futures increased by 0.13% to $5.11 per pound at the end of trading on Friday, October 31 [1] - In October, copper futures experienced a cumulative increase of 4.85% [1] Summary by Category - **Market Performance** - COMEX copper futures rose by 0.13% to $5.11 per pound [1] - The cumulative increase for October was 4.85% [1]

每经AI快讯，10月31日，燃油期货主力连续合约涨2.04%，报2807元(人民币)/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In November, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips. The coking coal market is likely to maintain a bullish trend due to factors such as low coal valuations, upcoming winter storage demand, and favorable fundamentals. There is also an arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1200, 1400], and for the coke main contract is [1700, 1900] [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - In October, coking coal and coke prices were strong, outperforming other black series products. By October 30, the coking coal main contract rose 14.38% and the coke main contract rose 10.07% month - on - month. Affected by safety and environmental inspections, domestic coal mine production decreased month - on - month in October, and the operating rate remained at a low level. In the last week of October, pig iron production declined seasonally, and short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, but steel mill profits were significantly compressed [4]. Supply and Demand - **Coking Coal Supply** - Mines: As of October 31, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 190.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 75.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 million tons [21]. - Coal Washeries: As of October 31, the daily average output of sample coal washeries was 26.52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.46%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [24]. - Imports: From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year, with Mongolian coal imports down 3.85% year - on - year. In October, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports decreased significantly and has recently started to recover [6][25]. - **Coking Coal Demand** - The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal demand, but mentions that short - term steel mill procurement enthusiasm was okay, and pig iron production declined seasonally in the last week of October [4]. - **Coke Supply and Demand** - Supply: The report does not provide detailed supply data for coke. - Demand: As of October 31, the daily average coke consumption was 1.064 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [51]. Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: As of October 31, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1233 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 1383 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt costs of other types of coking coal in different regions are also provided [9]. - **Basis**: For coking coal, the basis for the January contract was 204, with a weekly change of 50 and a basis rate of 14.67%; for the May contract, the basis was 133, with a weekly change of 45 and a basis rate of 9.55%; for the September contract, the basis was 63, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of 4.54% [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal remained at a low level compared to the same period [15]. - **Black Commodity Ratio**: The report does not provide detailed information on the black commodity ratio. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: In the week of October 24, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.4937 million tons, the成交 rate was 93.31%, and the non - trading rate was 6.69%, showing an increase in listing volume and成交 rate compared to the week of October 17 [31]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report does not provide detailed information on coking coal total inventory but shows the inventory distribution of coke, including steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports [57]. - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: As of October 31, steel mill coke inventory was 629.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons; independent coking enterprise inventory was 59.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons; port inventory was 211.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.01 million tons [57].