但报告同时警示风险，指出外部需求变化及全球经济格局演变，增加了中短期增长前景的不确定性。今 年7月，美国对斯里兰卡关税税率从4月的44%降至20%，但仍对该国第二大创汇产业服装业造成冲击 ——该行业40%产品出口美国，2024年创汇48亿美元，雇佣约30万员工，其中多为女性。 中新网北京8月15日电 科伦坡消息：斯里兰卡央行15日发布货币政策报告，预计该国2025年经济将增长 4.5%，高于世界银行3.5%的预估。 路透社报道称，在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的29亿美元援助计划支持下，斯里兰卡2024年国内生产总值 实现5%的增长，从三年前的严重金融危机中复苏。 通胀方面，斯里兰卡7月消费者价格指数同比下降0.3%，较2022年9月70%的通胀峰值大幅回落，主要得 益于电价与食品价格下调。斯里兰卡央行预计通胀将持续加速，到2026年中达到5%的目标水平。斯里 兰卡央行继5月降息25个基点后，上月维持基准利率7.75%不变。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity in the market [1] - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price stability targets [1] - The PBOC considers promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as an important factor in monetary policy [1] Economic Objectives - The PBOC aims to maintain price levels at a reasonable level [1]

国家统计局最新数据显示，前7个月全国固定资产投资增速出现放缓态势。这一变化引发市场对经济增长动力的关注。在投资结构中，基础设施建设投资表 现相对稳健，其"稳定器"功能正在经济下行压力下凸显重要价值。 投资增速放缓态势明显 前7个月投资数据呈现分化格局。房地产开发投资延续下滑趋势，制造业投资增长动力有所减弱。相比之下，基础设施投资保持了相对稳定的增长水平。这 种结构性变化反映出当前经济运行中的复杂因素。 投资增速的放缓与多重因素相关。房地产市场调整持续深化，开发商投资意愿明显不足。制造业领域受到外部需求波动和产能过剩压力影响，企业扩产积极 性有所下降。同时，民间投资活力仍待进一步激发，这对整体投资增长形成制约。 基建投资"稳定器"作用凸显 在投资结构调整过程中，基础设施建设展现出逆周期调节的重要功能。各地重大工程项目加速推进，为稳定投资增长提供了有力支撑。交通、水利、能源等 领域的建设项目成为拉动投资的关键力量。 政府主导的基建投资具有明显的政策导向性。在经济下行压力加大的背景下，基建投资承担着托底经济的重要使命。专项债券发行为基建项目提供了充足的 资金保障，确保了重点工程的顺利实施。 基建投资的乘数效应正在显 ...

Group 1 - The core message from Indian Prime Minister Modi's Independence Day speech emphasizes the protection of farmers, fishermen, and other laborers' interests against harmful policies, asserting that there will be no compromise on these issues [1] - India is making efforts to ensure that its development plans benefit small farmers, livestock breeders, and fishermen, having identified 100 agricultural regions that require additional support [1] - The country plans to reform the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to lower tax rates, aiming to support the growth of small and medium enterprises and promote economic growth [1]

国家统计局发言人表示，上半年最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达到52%，比上年全年提升7.5个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal of monetary policy in the second half of the year remains economic growth and full employment, with potential for monetary easing to exceed expectations [1] Group 1: External Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, creating favorable conditions for monetary easing [1] - The U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China may impact Chinese exports, potentially leading to a temporary slowdown in economic growth and increased employment pressure [1] Group 2: Internal Factors - The economy is likely to remain in a low inflation environment in the second half of the year, with real interest rates still relatively high, indicating a need for further reductions [1] - A policy interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points is anticipated in the third quarter, which will guide the downward adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and further lower loan and deposit rates [1]

近期，多家外资金融机构密集上调对中国经济增速的预测，这一现象引发广泛关注。国际货币基金组织将中国2025年经济增速预测值上调至4.8%，较4月预 测提升0.8个百分点。高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、野村等知名投行也纷纷调高预期，上调幅度在0.3至0.7个百分点之间。这种集体性的预期调整背后，反 映出国际市场对中国经济发展前景的信心增强。 财政政策与货币政策的紧密配合，为经济增长提供了有力保障。促消费、化解地方债务、优化营商环境、支持民营企业等措施同步推进，有效提振内需和市 场信心。上半年全国发行新增地方政府专项债券2.16万亿元，同比增长45%，货币政策保持流动性充裕，各类结构性货币政策工具加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、扶持小微企业。 核心CPI回升反映扩内需政策持续显效。7月份扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅为2024年3月以来最高。家用器具、文娱耐用消费品等价 格环比涨幅明显，飞机票、旅游、宾馆住宿和交通工具租赁费价格环比涨幅均高于季节性水平。 近期出台的重点行业产能治理、培育服务消费新增长点等政策安排，将进一步推动经济结构优化。生育补贴、全面取消在就业地参保户籍限制等惠民生举措 密集落 ...

Group 1 - BNP Paribas suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates in Q4 2025, viewing it as a "recalibration" of the neutral rate due to fiscal policies offsetting tariff drag [1] - Rabobank analysts express a more pessimistic outlook for Eurozone growth and inflation, predicting that deposit rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2027 [2] - Goldman Sachs believes the ECB's rate-cutting cycle has ended, forecasting that rates will remain stable for an extended period [2] Group 2 - Santander Bank analysts note that the UK's GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded expectations, indicating that concerns over employment weakness may be overstated, supporting the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged [3] - The Dutch International Bank highlights that the UK's GDP growth was primarily supported by government consumption and inventory, while household consumption and business investment showed significant weakness [3] - Monex Europe analysts point out that the Norwegian central bank's decision to maintain rates and signal caution on rate cuts supports the krone, despite short-term influences from risk sentiment and oil price fluctuations [3]

智通财经APP获悉，英国经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这让英国财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)得 以松一口气，但也提高了英国央行进一步降息的门槛。 英国国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，英国第二季度GDP环比增长0.3%，超过经济学家和英国央行预 测的0.1%。继前两个月小幅下滑后，英国GDP在6月实现了0.4%的环比增长，是经济学家预测值的两 倍。 英国GDP在第一季度0.7%的增长被认为是制造商为应对美国关税而"人为"提振的，但英国首相斯塔默 (Keir Starmer)仍多次将英国在七国集团(G7)中表现优于其他成员国视为经济"触底反弹"的证据。 这些数据也使英国央行在是否继续降息方面面临更多不确定性。周二公布的统计数据显示，自去年10月 里夫斯提高税收的预算案以来，失业人数少于此前预期。交易员们已不再充分押注英国央行今年会进一 步降息，并预计基准利率将在明年稳定在3.5%。 英国央行在上周以经济活动减弱为理由实施了一年内的第五次降息。然而，近一半的货币政策委员会成 员反对这一决定，理由是对近期通胀上涨感到担忧。此次政策会议也是英国央行28年历史上首次需要两 轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 ...

Core Insights - The UK economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing previous forecasts of 0.1% [1][4] - The strong economic performance comes amid multiple challenges, including a £26 billion tax hike and rising regulated prices [4] - The latest GDP data has altered market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year [4][7] Economic Performance - All major economic sectors experienced growth in Q2, with services, particularly IT and healthcare, being the main drivers [5] - Manufacturing expanded by 0.3% despite higher export barriers to the US [5] - Real GDP per capita increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year [5] Challenges Ahead - Despite positive Q2 data, the economic outlook remains challenging due to potential tax increases and new employment legislation [8] - The government is relying on economic growth to fund spending plans, but market concerns about further tax measures are causing hesitance in investment and spending [8] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the positive economic data but emphasized the need for further work to benefit the workforce [9] - Reeves plans to focus on investment and reforms to address weak productivity, including infrastructure improvements and planning system changes [9][10]