Economic Overview - China's economy is showing resilience with a stable growth outlook, supported by proactive macro policies and a strong domestic demand [1][2] - Export growth in the first five months of the year was 6.0% in USD terms, surpassing last year's annual growth of 5.8% [1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 38.9%, higher than last year's 30.3% [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, compared to 3.5% for the entire previous year [2] - Key consumer sectors such as communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture saw growth rates exceeding 20% due to the "old-for-new" consumption policy [2] - Fixed asset investment also increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the same period, outpacing last year's 3.2% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with a record-high deficit ratio and significant expansion in special bonds and long-term special bonds [1][3] - The total fiscal space available for the second half of the year exceeds 7 trillion yuan, with ample room for supporting consumption, investment, and foreign trade [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than further easing in the short term [2] Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Economic pressures are manageable, providing a window for structural reforms, including the promotion of a unified national market and the exit of outdated production capacity [3] - The government aims to transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a major consumer economy, with new policies such as annual childcare subsidies starting in 2025 [3] - Additional measures to boost consumption, including optimizing vacation systems and improving social security, are being actively implemented [3]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves for June [2][3] - On July 8, the Dalian Commodity Exchange will officially list and trade pure benzene futures and options [2][8] - On July 8, the US tariff suspension period expires [2][11] - On July 9 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's CPI and PPI for June [2][13] - On July 10 at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2][16] - From July 10 - 17 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the financial statistics report, the incremental statistics report of social financing scale, and the stock statistics report of social financing scale for June [2][17] - On July 12 at 00:00, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the USDA monthly supply - demand report [2][21] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 7 - Expected June foreign exchange reserves are $3.3 trillion, compared to $3.285 trillion in May. Gold reserves in May were 73.83 million ounces [3] - The "Procedural Trading Management Implementation Rules" of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges come into effect. The rules define high - frequency trading standards and make differentiated regulatory arrangements [4] - Expected Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for July is 1.2, with a previous value of 0.2 [5] - Expected Eurozone retail sales monthly rate for May is - 0.5%, with a previous value of 0.1%; the annual rate is expected to be 1.4%, with a previous value of 2.3% [7] July 8 - Pure benzene futures will be listed for trading starting at 9:00 am, and pure benzene options starting at 21:00. The daily price limit for pure benzene futures is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% for new contracts on the first listing day. The contract margin is 8% of the contract value, and the option position limit is 2,000 lots [8] - Expected Australian cash rate on July 8 is 3.60%, with a previous value of 3.85%. The RBA governor will hold a monetary policy press conference [9] - Expected Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for July is 0, with a previous value of 0.3 [10] - The US tariff suspension period expires [11] July 9 - The US EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [12] - Predicted June CPI year - on - year growth is 0%, compared to a decline of 0.1% previously; predicted June PPI year - on - year decline is 3.1%, compared to a decline of 3.3% previously. If the predictions hold, it will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures [13] - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4. A continued increase will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [15] July 10 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which may impact relevant futures prices [16] - Expected June M2 year - on - year growth is 8.2%, compared to 7.9% previously; expected new RMB loans in June are 2 trillion yuan, compared to 620 billion yuan previously; expected incremental social financing scale in June is 3.85 trillion yuan, compared to 2.287 trillion yuan previously. Higher values may boost commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [17] July 11 - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, which may impact relevant agricultural product futures prices [19] - Expected number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 is 235,000, compared to 233,000 previously. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [20] July 12 - The USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report, which may impact relevant agricultural product futures prices [21]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].

文章称，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，持续用力、更加给力，推动已确定的各 项政策举措充分发挥红利。我国宏观政策仍有进一步发力的空间。面临外部环境更趋复杂严峻、国内需 求不足、风险隐患较多等困难和挑战，应提高宏观调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据形势变化及时推 出增量储备政策，更好地巩固经济发展和社会稳定基本面。 ...

当前经济稳定运行的压力犹存，需要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。通过增强宏观政策协调配合， 用好用足政策空间，充分释放政策效应，就可以更有效扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、增强发展动能。 近日，财政部公布三季度将发行11只超长期特别国债，其中4只发行时间较原计划提前。此外，今年第 三批消费品以旧换新资金将在7月下达的消息也引起高度关注。一系列密集举措显示，宏观政策正在加 紧发力，为宏观经济运行提供更坚强支撑。 从总体看，今年宏观政策呈现"靠前发力"的特点。更加积极的财政政策方面，前5个月发行国债6.29万 亿元，同比增长38.5%；发行新增地方政府债券1.98万亿元，增长36.6%；全国一般公共预算支出增速达 4.2%，加强对惠民生、促消费、增后劲领域的投入，各项重点支出保持较高增幅。货币政策适度宽 松，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，为经济持续回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，持续用力、更加给力，推动已确定的各项政策举 措充分发挥红利。促进扩大内需方面，尽早发行和使用超长期特别国债、专项债券等，发挥财政资金引 导和带动效应，三季度部分超长期特别国债提前发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the US-China trade war and domestic policy measures that have contributed to economic stability and growth. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is expected to be around 5.3%, with a need for only 4.7% growth in the second half to meet the annual target [1] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.4%, while the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [2] - The overall economic performance is stable, with industrial value-added growth at 6.5% in the first quarter and service sector growth at 5.8% [5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export growth rate fluctuated due to the US-China tariff war, peaking at 12.3% in March before declining to 4.8% in May [2] - The share of exports to the US has decreased to the lowest level on record, impacting overall export performance [2] - The article anticipates a 2.0% growth in exports for the year, with various scenarios predicting outcomes ranging from 0% to 3.5% [10][11] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Policy Response - Domestic demand is gradually stabilizing due to proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [3] - Social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with government bonds seeing a significant increase of 20.9% [3] - Retail sales growth reached 6.4% in May, driven by consumption policies such as the "old-for-new" program [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% in the first five months, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% [13] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.8% for the year, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 10.0% [23][16] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the second half, supported by ample funding and ongoing major projects [18][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with retail sales showing a recovery trend [27] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption in various sectors [28] - However, consumer confidence remains low, and spending may decline in the second half due to reduced subsidy support and economic uncertainties [29] Group 6: Price Trends - CPI is projected to remain around 0% for the year, with a slight recovery expected in the second half [31][32] - PPI is anticipated to decline by 2.3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [34][35] Group 7: Policy Outlook - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on stabilizing growth without significant new stimulus, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [37][38] - Fiscal policies will prioritize the effective use of existing funds to support consumption and investment [40][41] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, with a focus on structural support rather than aggressive easing [42][43]

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent improvements in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, driven by export demand and fiscal policies, while highlighting ongoing economic challenges and the need for proactive macroeconomic measures to sustain growth [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% in June, marking the second consecutive month of rebound, while the non-manufacturing PMI also increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [1]. - The new export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points in June, continuing a two-month upward trend, although it remains in the contraction zone at 47.7% [1]. - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 2.1607 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 1.4935 trillion yuan in the same period of 2023 [1]. Group 2: Policy Responses - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is seen as a critical observation window for potential adjustments in macroeconomic policies to address export uncertainties and support the 5% growth target [2][4]. - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with an acceleration in the use of special bonds for key sectors and local economic support [2][4]. - The government may introduce "quasi-fiscal" policy financial tools and increase special bond issuance to support areas such as childbirth subsidies, employment, and service consumption [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The third quarter presents a window for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with a flexible monetary policy stance indicated by the central bank [5]. - Structural tools will focus on supporting technology innovation and consumption, with targeted funding for key sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the "rush to export" effect has contributed to the first half's data, with an estimated pre-emptive export demand of about 1.7% of total exports for 2024 [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to become a norm, with ongoing negotiations likely to prolong the situation [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - On the macro - level, the weaker - than - expected US ADP data has raised hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than the market expected, and the market is waiting for the upcoming non - farm payrolls report [1] - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina enterprise in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a 9.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - As of July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. In July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, the arrival of goods may continue. Coupled with the weak downstream consumption and slow pick - up, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase steadily in the early July [2] - Currently, the domestic bauxite price has not been significantly adjusted, and the long - term contract price of imported bauxite in the third quarter is expected to be mainly stable and declining. The spot trading of imported bauxite is light, and the price is stable [2] - The current off - season inventory accumulation has just begun, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The macro - risk pricing has increased, and attention should be paid to the domestic policy promotion. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be mainly strong within the range, and then the inventory - consumption trend should be concerned [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]