Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom. The rebar 2601 is expected to be weak in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Contents a. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom. The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The definitions of price trends are: for varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price, and for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, with the day - trading closing price as the end price; a decline greater than 1% is a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. The strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views [1]. b. Market Driving Logic - Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with output continuously falling to a relatively low level, but inventory is high, and the motivation for production reduction during the peak season is not strong, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited. Meanwhile, affected by holidays, the demand is weak, the downstream situation has not improved, and the peak - season performance is expected to be poor. The weak demand is pressuring the steel price. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar are running weakly, industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory under weak demand, so the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1]. - Under the double - weak situation of supply and demand, the industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, the inventory increases significantly during the holiday, the steel price is under pressure again, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile bottom - seeking trend in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Due to tariff disturbances, market sentiment has weakened, and the spot price of steel has fallen over the weekend. Rebar continues the double - weak situation of supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, supply is shrinking, but the reduction space in the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. - Affected by the holiday, demand is weak, and there is no improvement in the downstream. The quality of the peak season needs to be tracked. - Currently, rebar supply is shrinking and demand is weak. Under the double - weak situation, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. The inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the steel price is under pressure again. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the weak sentiment dominates, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile bottom - seeking trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices will maintain a volatile trend. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to supply disruptions under safety requirements and the replenishment demand of non - power coal [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - As of October 11, the Yulin 5800 - calorie index was 567.0 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - calorie index was 510.0 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - calorie index was 575.0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI Import 4700 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index was reported at 54.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [1][5] Supply - In the producing areas, coal mines have resumed production relatively quickly but have not reached full - load production. The import coal market remained stable overall, and quotes were firm due to the rainy season in Indonesia [1][8] Consumption - In the short term, there is insufficient demand support for coal prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [2][9] Inventory - As of October 11, the total inventory of northern ports was 23.37 million tons, an increase of 2.06 million tons from the previous week. The coal inventory of 6 coastal power plants was 14.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons; the average available days were 16 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1 day; the daily consumption of 6 coastal power plants was 867,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [1][12] Strategy - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply contracted with a weekly output decrease of 36200 tons, but the reduction space during the peak season is doubtful and inventory is high, so the positive effect is limited. Demand was weak with a decline in weekly apparent demand and high - frequency indicators at low levels in recent years. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices. The industry contradiction has been accumulating under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and steel prices are under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36200 tons compared with the previous week and 328600 tons compared with the same period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.04 percentage points compared with the same period [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 146000 tons, a decrease of 95070 tons compared with the previous week and 102500 tons compared with the same period. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 11990 tons, an increase of 1880 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1240 tons compared with the same period [1]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 659650 tons, an increase of 57400 tons compared with the previous week and 218800 tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory was 192340 tons, an increase of 33430 tons compared with the previous week and 53870 tons compared with the same period. The social inventory was 467310 tons, an increase of 23970 tons compared with the previous week and 164930 tons compared with the same period [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that cost support has emerged, and steel prices have stabilized in a volatile manner [1]. - During the holiday, the rebar market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted but the reduction space in the peak season was questionable, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, and inventory increased significantly during the holiday, putting pressure on steel prices. However, cost support was a positive factor. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the post - holiday demand recovery should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is cost support and price stabilization in a volatile manner [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the rebar market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply from construction steel mills weakened, but the reduction space in the peak season was uncertain, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak due to holiday factors and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices were under pressure. Cost support was a positive factor, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention on post - holiday demand recovery [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 假期累库显著，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 假期建筑钢材现货价格持稳为主，库存增 57.39 万吨，处于往年中性偏高水平，而螺纹钢供需 双弱格局未变，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，产量再度回落，但减量空间有限，且库存偏高，利好效应不 强。与此同时，节前下游需求有所改善，而下游未见好转，需求改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that policy expectations are fermenting, leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. - The rebar futures price oscillated higher due to the enhanced policy expectations from the downward economic data in August and the strong boost from coking coal and coke. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar remained weak. Although the weekly output decreased, the reduction during the peak season was not strong, and inventory continued to increase, with limited relief of supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand was poor, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory due to policy expectations and strong raw materials, but the fundamentals did not improve in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices maintained an oscillatory and stable state under the dominance of optimistic sentiment, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The economic data in August declined, enhancing policy expectations. Coupled with the strong boost from coking coal and coke, the rebar futures price oscillated higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weak, with limited relief of supply pressure and poor demand, insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory, but the fundamentals did not improve, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices were stable and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the demand [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak, and steel prices are oscillating to find the bottom [2]. - In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. Although there are positive factors such as cost increase and peak - season expectations, it is expected that steel prices will continue the oscillatory bottom - finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the core logic of a weak supply - demand pattern and steel prices oscillating to find the bottom [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel remained stable with average trading volume. Rebar continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills weakened, and the weekly output of rebar decreased month - on - month, but the sustainability of production cuts during the peak season needs to be tracked. Inventory continued to increase, and the supply pressure was not relieved [3]. - The demand for rebar was weak. High - frequency indicators rebounded slightly from a low level, and downstream industries remained sluggish. The peak - season effect was insufficient, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. With the current weak supply - demand situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions have accumulated [3]. - The relatively positive factors are cost increase and peak - season expectations. It is expected that steel prices will continue the oscillatory bottom - finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].