1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified with a clear rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Styrene: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Propylene: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PVC: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PX: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - PTA: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - Glass: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose in some sectors, while demand varies by product. Some products are in a seasonal demand slump, and the market support from the supply - demand fundamentals is relatively weak. However, some products have positive factors such as inventory reduction and strong raw material expectations, which bring upward impetus [2][3][5] - For different chemical products, different investment strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, cost changes, and market trends, including short - term and medium - long - term strategies [3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. The overall supply was relatively loose, but the low - price transactions improved, and the production enterprises' willingness to stabilize the market was prominent [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of polyethylene remained at a high level for a long time, and the downstream demand decreased. The polypropylene was in the seasonal demand off - season, and the demand release was limited in the short term [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The unified benzene futures price fluctuated at a low level during the day. The port inventory continued to rise, but there were expectations of device maintenance and downstream load increase in the future, and the supply was expected to increase. In the medium - term, considering the de - stocking expectation in the first half of next year, it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the monthly difference at a low price [3] - The styrene futures main contract continued to rise during the day, breaking through the upper limit of the previous consolidation range. Driven by the strength of aromatics and export negotiations, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price support of styrene became stronger [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation continued to drive the price up, and PTA increased its positions and followed the rise. In the short term, PX supply was expected to increase, and PTA was expected to maintain a low - load de - stocking state. The upward drive mainly came from raw material PX. In the medium - term, a long - position strategy was recommended [5] - The ethylene glycol price fluctuated mainly. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester had a load - reduction expectation, but the decrease in arrival volume and device maintenance alleviated the inventory - accumulation pressure. In the long - term, it was still under pressure due to large - scale device production [5] - The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuated with raw materials. In the demand off - season, the basis and processing margin weakened. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern was relatively good. The bottle - chip demand declined, and the spot processing margin was better than the futures, but the overall situation was still not ideal, with over - capacity being the long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures fluctuated within a range. The port inventory increased significantly due to the recovery of import unloading speed and weakening of inland demand. In the short term, the inventory was high, and the market might fluctuate weakly within the range. In the long - term, there was an upward driving force, and it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the 5 - 9 monthly difference at a low price [6] - The urea futures fluctuated strongly. The production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly, and the market sentiment promoted good transactions. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the daily output decreased, and the reserve demand continued to advance. The short - term supply - demand gap tightened, and the market fluctuated strongly [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The start - up rate decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and the supply pressure was expected to ease in 2026. The downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [7] - Caustic soda showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed, which supported the price of liquid caustic soda. The downstream replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory pressure was still high. The supply pressure was large, and the expected upward range was limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The weekly output decreased slightly but was still above 700,000 tons, and there was new production capacity release in the future. The inventory continued to decrease, and the demand was mainly for downstream replenishment. In the long - term, it faced the pressure of supply - demand surplus, and a high - selling strategy was recommended. A long - glass and short - soda ash 05 strategy could be considered at a low level [8] - Glass showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the spot market was average. The production capacity decreased slightly, and the profit was compressed. The processing orders were sluggish, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needed to reduce production capacity to achieve balance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The paraxylene industry is expected to experience a fundamental recovery and restructuring in profitability in 2025, with profits showing a distinct "high-low" trend throughout the year, moving away from consecutive losses. Average profits are projected to rise from a meager 89 yuan per ton in 2024 to 296 yuan in 2025, driven by upstream cost advantages, export demand, and capacity growth [1] Group 1 - In early 2025, the paraxylene industry struggled at the breakeven point, with profits fluctuating around the loss threshold due to rising raw material prices, particularly isomer xylene, which pressured profit margins [1][2] - A turning point occurred in the second quarter, with profits peaking between late April and early May, reaching a historical high of over 1190 yuan, supported by a combination of supply tightness from domestic maintenance and strong export performance, especially to India [2] Group 2 - However, the high-profit scenario is not sustainable, as profits began to decline after mid-year due to the fading cost advantages and a reversal in supply-demand fundamentals. New capacities from companies like Yulong Petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical increased domestic supply, leading to a market shift from tight balance to surplus [3] - The paraxylene industry faced renewed losses by November and December, with losses exceeding 300 yuan at times, as the oversupply effect became evident and downstream demand remained weak, exacerbating the profit erosion [3] Group 3 - The profit recovery in 2025 is characterized as a temporary outcome driven by "cost collapse" and "export benefits," reflecting the industry's return to the harsh reality of self-sustaining supply-demand pricing amid a cycle of capacity expansion [4] - The export market played a crucial buffering role, delaying the oversupply phenomenon, but did not alter the long-term trend of a loosening domestic supply-demand structure. Future profitability will depend on companies' ability to enhance competitiveness through technological upgrades, cost control, and deep global market engagement [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the end - of - year important festivals in Europe and America, with the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, large - scale short positions in COMEX silver and delivery demand exacerbating spot supply shortages, and institutional pre - allocation of metal assets, precious metal prices are pushed up. In the day session on December 22, the Shanghai silver main contract AG2602 rose by more than 6%, platinum and palladium futures main 06 contracts hit the 7% daily limit in the morning, the international gold price exceeded the historical high since October 20, and the Shanghai gold main contract AU2602 rose by more than 2% and returned above 1000 yuan/gram [1] - In the short - term, without clear negative factors, the precious metal market will remain strong, but during the end - of - year holiday in the European and American markets, trading liquidity will weaken, which may further amplify market fluctuations, and investors need to set reasonable stop - loss and take - profit levels [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog Driving Analysis 1: US Employment and Inflation Data Slowdown Support Fed's Loose Policy, Geopolitical Conflicts Stimulate Precious Metals to Strengthen - US economic data shows that the labor market has a downward risk and the inflation rebound momentum slows down. The unemployment rate in November soared to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, and the average monthly new non - farm employment in the second half of this year was only 22,800. The core CPI in November fell to 2.6%, weaker than expected and the lowest since March 2021. The Fed may further loosen monetary policy, and the market predicts about 3 interest rate cuts in 2026 [2] - Geopolitical conflicts such as the possible Israeli military strike on Iran, the slow progress of the "peace plan" in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US blockade on Venezuela continue to increase investors' risk - aversion demand, supporting the precious metal market [4] Driving Analysis 2: The Performance of the COMEX Silver Delivery Month and the Persistent Tightness of Circulating Inventory - From December to now, the COMEX silver futures market has a physical delivery demand of more than 60 million ounces in a single month, accounting for nearly 50% of the total registered warehouse inventory of 128 million ounces. The short position is as high as 990 million ounces. The shortage of physical inventory forces some shorts to close positions or hedge in the spot market, amplifying the upward momentum of silver prices [5] - There is a strong expected demand for silver in the electric vehicle and AI data center fields. The World Silver Association predicts that the compound annual growth rate of silver demand in the global automotive industry will be about 3.4% from 2025 - 2031, and the potential annual silver consumption of silver - carbon solid - state batteries in the next few years can reach thousands of tons. More countries may increase strategic silver reserves [5] Driving Analysis 3: Favorable Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Continuous Capital Inflow into the Platinum and Palladium Markets - The strong prices of platinum and palladium are due to the favorable supply - demand fundamentals, and factors such as high trading enthusiasm, low margin cost, and small tradable volume amplify price fluctuations. In the absence of more guiding data, the upward logic of platinum and palladium prices will continue to strengthen [9] Outlook for the Future Market - With global mainstream institutions continuously raising precious metal price forecasts, some investors are pre - allocating precious metals, leading to an increase in ETF and derivatives positions. The short - term market will remain strong. The potential weekly increase of silver may reach 9% (90% confidence interval), and the monthly increase can reach up to 18%. The potential increase of gold and platinum and palladium is relatively small [11]

2025年12月21日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 | 12 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 | 21 | | 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：低位震荡，等待新消息指引 | 35 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251221 | 46 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 | 53 | | 花生：关注现货 | 59 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00214 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - view is expected to be positive, with the Fed's actions and China's central economic work conference setting a good tone. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The raw material supply is tight and may affect the smelting end. The current supply - demand improvement of basic metals has slowed down, but the future supply - demand is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, and positive demand expectations may boost basic metals, but high prices and volatile Fed expectations may limit price increases. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up their prices. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin [2]. 3. Summary of Each Variety Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [7][8][9]. - **Analysis**: The US unemployment rate is high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT plans to reduce production in 2026. Demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory is rising. LME's plan to set position limits weakens the upward momentum of copper prices [7][8][9]. Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: Macro sentiment affects the market. The supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. The warehouse receipts are decreasing, but there is pressure on the price due to factors such as expired warehouse receipts and regional premium adjustments. The price may fluctuate more as more funds focus on it [9][10][11]. Aluminum - **View**: Mozal Aluminum Plant may shut down, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. Domestically, production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term is volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [15]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply may decrease due to environmental policies and unclear policies. Demand may weaken after the end of the year - end car sales season. With cost support and stable supply - demand, the short - and medium - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **View**: LME zinc inventory has risen to nearly 100,000 tons, and zinc prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [18][19]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile, and the long - term price may decline due to increased supply and limited demand growth [18][19]. Lead - **View**: LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is rising, and the supply is affected by smelter overhauls. Demand is relatively stable with some battery enterprises planning to increase production. However, the increase in LME inventory suppresses the price [20][21]. Nickel - **View**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices rebound, with an overall outlook of being volatile [21][23][26]. - **Analysis**: The current supply is still under pressure, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, if Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the oversupply situation in 2026 may improve significantly [21][23][26]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of nickel prices drives up the stainless - steel market, with an overall outlook of being range - bound [27][28]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by raw materials, but production is expected to decrease in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the price is likely to be range - bound [27][28]. Tin - **View**: The downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate upward, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [28][29]. - **Analysis**: Supply is restricted by issues such as slow复产 in mines, RKAB approvals in Indonesia, and political instability in Africa. Demand is growing in industries like semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles, which will drive up the tin price [28][29]. 4. Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on December 17, 2025. For example, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56% [155]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [156].

（来源：果业研究） 来源：果业研究 国泰君安期货分析认为：在利空影响下，下周一多晶硅合约波动将明显放大，关注下方空间。短期建议 观望。 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面价格整体下行，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面重心回落，现货报价稳定。 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存继续累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，整体周产 环减。具体而言，西南地区11月起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在10000-10500元/ 吨，枯水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12月份上游西南减产幅度增加，虽新疆部分工厂有复产但 相较于西南减产体量较少，使得整体11-12月产量环比减少。库存来看，SMM统计本周社会库存累库0.8 万吨，厂库库存累库0.3万吨，整体行业库存累1.1万吨，后续关注期货仓单的注册情况。 工业硅需求端，下游刚需偏弱格局。多晶硅视角，短期硅料周度排产有所增加，后续关注减产情况。有 机硅端，本周有机硅周产降低，多家有机硅单体厂降负荷运行。据称有机硅企业联合于12月起减产挺 价，不过偏自律行为，实际落地性仍有待核实。有机硅短期报价提升，考虑到当下需求淡季、有机硅库 存偏高，挺价逻辑尚难走顺。铝合金端，铝合金锭厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil still faces inventory pressure, with difficulties in inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the tone of important meetings [2]. - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradiction. The impact of macro - pricing will gradually strengthen in December [5]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds rather than continue to short, as macro factors are more important [9][10]. - Industrial silicon shows a short - term weak operation with a supply - demand weak pattern and limited marginal changes [13]. - Polysilicon faces challenges in reducing inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games [15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, with the supply - demand contradiction not effectively resolved, and the market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20]. Summary by Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.189%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 441,41 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 114,799 lots to 1,411,905 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.391%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 492,093 lots to 1,034,595 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - This week, rebar production declined significantly, inventory continued to decrease, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coil production decreased, apparent demand was neutral, inventory reduction was difficult, and the social inventory level was high. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.63% (- 5.00). The position decreased by 41,114 lots to 293,700 lots. The weighted position was 949,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.69% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline of Rio Tinto and FMG shipments. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 232.3 tons, down 2.38 tons. The number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and annual inspections increased. The steel mill profitability rate rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. In the inventory aspect, port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, and there is no sign of resolving the inventory structural contradiction [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 4, affected by the increase in settlement electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia and the sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys rebounded significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.87% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.84% at 5546 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The market sentiment has improved, but there is still differentiation among commodity sectors. The black sector is weak, and ferroalloys are also affected by the weak coking coal sentiment. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of macro - events in December on market sentiment is worth expecting. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, but it is difficult for its own fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 0.11% (- 10). The weighted position increased by 12,668 lots to 413,311 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 440 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 90 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 515). The weighted position decreased by 1,608 lots to 276,578 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 4615 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon shows short - term weak operation. The weekly output continues to decline, and the marginal decline has slowed down significantly. The demand from polysilicon in December is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is stable in the short term, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy has increased, but the export has decreased significantly in October. The cost support is stable, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes [13]. - The production of polysilicon in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease significantly, and the inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year is difficult to relieve. The downstream prices are weak, while the upstream silicon enterprises still maintain high prices. The near - month contract has high risks due to delivery games, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of the platform company [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1010 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.98% (- 10). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, down 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, down 2.92 million cases (- 4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,182 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 23,024 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.26% (- 3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1132 yuan, down 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, down 48,800 tons (- 4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash inventory, down 12,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,611 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,616 lots [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply of glass has decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines by many enterprises last week, and the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall spot market trading is still light, and the manufacturers still face great pressure in shipping. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream orders and the implementation of cold - repair production lines [18]. - The production capacity of soda ash has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled devices. The mainstream market supply meets the demand, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Light soda ash supply is locally tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to the decline in the glass industry. The soda ash price remains stable in the short term, but it should be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].

中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/04 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China-Russia Strategic Security Consultation was held. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 Futures Prices: On ...