Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of shock, with varying degrees of changes in supply, demand, and inventory in each sector. Uncertainties remain in the market, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as policies, geopolitics, and raw material prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel plate continued to fluctuate today. The apparent demand for thread was stable week - on - week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, production remained high, and inventory declined. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron output remains relatively high, but the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still fermented repeatedly. The overall domestic demand is still weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the plate fluctuation narrows. The short - term trend is mainly shock [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment is in the peak season, and there is an expectation of end - of - season impulse. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but is expected to rebound. The port inventory is expected to stop falling and increase, and the supply pressure increases marginally. The terminal demand is in the off - season, the steel mills still have profits, and the molten iron output is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is still strong, and the iron ore is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron output decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. The coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined from the annual high. The overall coke inventory decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the coking coal price rebounded, and the coke price is driven by crude oil to some extent [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to decline slightly, and the supply was still restricted. The spot auction market improved slightly at low prices, and the decline in transaction prices slowed down. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The overall coking coal inventory may be destocked, but the rebound space of the coking coal price should not be overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [5] Silicomanganese - Affected by international conflicts, the silicomanganese price fluctuated upward during the day. The tender inquiry price of a large steel mill in the north was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared with May. The inventory level decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production began to increase. The manganese ore inventory accumulation speed increased, and the price is under further pressure, but the price - holding intention of manganese mines has increased. The silicomanganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [5] Ferrosilicon - Affected by international conflicts, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward during the day. The futures and options trading of ferrosilicon is open to qualified overseas investors. The molten iron output decreased slightly, the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The inventory decreased slightly. The ferrosilicon is temporarily bullish in the short term [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, with crude oil rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, at $11.5 in July - August, and the basis strengthened. The domestic and international near - and far - month spreads of FU were differentiated, with the 07 contract falling to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuating at $9. The 0.5 crack in Singapore declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [6]. - This week, on - shore inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage inventories accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage inventories fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly destocked, floating storage inventories fluctuated, on - shore inventories in Fujairah accumulated, and floating storage inventories increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region, and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk event in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the impact magnitude will increase [7]. - Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month spreads of domestic and international FU are suppressed, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the downward driving force for domestic and international prices has decreased. The production of LU increased month - on - month [7]. Group 2: Fuel Oil Price Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 407.23 | 409.51 | 417.96 | 441.01 | 448.31 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 457.96 | 461.45 | 468.13 | 487.74 | 489.27 | 1.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.96 | -2.98 | -2.76 | -2.60 | -1.35 | 1.25 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 616.60 | 616.64 | 625.97 | 662.68 | 661.89 | -0.79 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -158.64 | -155.19 | -157.84 | -174.94 | -172.62 | 2.32 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 17.90 | 15.03 | 16.61 | 16.61 | 17.44 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.73 | 51.94 | 50.17 | 46.73 | 40.96 | -5.77 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 420.07 | 415.25 | 429.92 | 459.79 | 470.69 | 10.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 426.97 | 422.25 | 437.61 | 467.24 | 477.81 | 10.57 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 486.14 | 488.19 | 499.41 | 525.21 | 526.47 | 1.26 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 81.98 | 81.81 | 83.98 | 87.92 | 89.80 | 1.88 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.28 | -0.88 | -0.39 | 0.21 | 2.16 | 1.95 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -120.51 | -117.20 | -122.04 | -125.40 | -138.05 | -12.65 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 441.10 | 435.55 | 448.16 | 471.75 | 484.57 | 12.82 | | FOB VLSFO | 496.78 | 499.42 | 511.48 | 534.27 | 536.09 | 1.82 | | 380 Basis | 12.25 | 12.95 | 10.25 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | -1.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 16.5 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 18.7 | -1.6 | [5] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2780 | 2780 | 2852 | 3048 | 3079 | 31 | | FU 05 | 2717 | 2727 | 2798 | 2986 | 3004 | 18 | | FU 09 | 2924 | 2912 | 2997 | 3205 | 3276 | 71 | | FU 01 - 05 | 63 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 75 | 13 | | FU 05 - 09 | -207 | -185 | -199 | -219 | -272 | -53 | | FU 09 - 01 | 144 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 197 | 40 | [5] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3431 | 3414 | 3496 | 3671 | 3695 | 24 | | LU 05 | 3358 | 3348 | 3461 | 3625 | 3620 | -5 | | LU 09 | 3518 | 3524 | 3609 | 3785 | 3829 | 44 | | LU 01 - 05 | 73 | 66 | 35 | 46 | 75 | 29 | | LU 05 - 09 | -160 | -176 | -148 | -160 | -209 | -49 | | LU 09 - 01 | 87 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 134 | 20 | [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: BU2507 closed at 3,659 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.95%, and 3,657 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.05%; BU2508 closed at 3,649 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.99%, and 3,639 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume of BU2507 yesterday was 93,031 lots, an increase of 40,364 lots, and the open interest was 53,840 lots, a decrease of 6,572 lots; the trading volume of BU2508 yesterday was 27,945 lots, an increase of 15,303 lots, and the open interest was 27,352 lots, a decrease of 1,705 lots [1] - Spot Market: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong was 3,775 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,670 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 34.49% (updated on June 9), an increase of 0.95% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 30.29% (updated on June 9), a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous period [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 116 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 10 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the East China - South China spread was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Production: This week (20250610 - 20250616), the domestic weekly asphalt production was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 1.8%; an increase of 147,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 38%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.3975 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 5.6% [11] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 782,000 tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to June 12. The domestic refinery inventory decreased significantly, mainly in Shandong and East China. As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.854 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to June 12. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the overall recovery of downstream terminal project demand in the northern region [11] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [10]

CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，Argus，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：地缘冲突升级，盘面风险加大 ◆ 我们的逻辑：6月7日-13日，地缘政治因素提振国际原油价格，液化气市场周尾走高。本周，AFEI丙烷指数先稳后扬， 周四、周五受地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，价格快速拉升，分别上涨5.25美元/吨和31美元/吨，收于577美元/吨；美国 MB价格走势类似，收于414.85美元/ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a surge in various futures contracts, particularly SC crude oil, which hit the limit up [1] Group 2 - Institutional analysis indicates that the short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to be strong amid the heightened geopolitical situation [1]

格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,裁止至上周,原油库存比去年同期低5.93%;比过去五年同期低8%;汽油 库存比去年同期低1.59%;比过去五年同期低2%:馏份油库存比去年同期低1.74%。比过去五年同期低17%。美国商业石 油库存总量增长616.2万桶。美国流厂加工总量平均每天1722.6万桶。比前一周增加22.8万桶;炼油厂开工率94.3%,比前 一周增长0.9个百分点。原油需求旺季来临,炼厂高开工率带动原油库存持续下降,而汽柴油需求处于今年季节性低点 。据EIA发布的《短期能源展望》,随着油价下跌导致生产商减少钻井活动,该机构预计美国原油产量将在未来18个月 内下降。EIA预计,全球石油库存增加将在预测期内推动原油价格走低。布伦特原油现货价格在5月份连续第四个月下 跌,平均每桶64美元,比4月份下跌4美元/桶。我们预测,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将跌至平均61美元桶, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil price increases support the prices of three major oils, causing them to fluctuate and strengthen [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7766.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.36% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +42.00 yuan or +0.46% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.71%, with a spot basis of P09 + 368.00, a change of -12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +50.00 yuan/ton or +0.63%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 204.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.43%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 198.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547040 tons, compared to the previous week's revised 301459 tons [2] - This crop year to date, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 45188245 tons, compared to 40543390 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared to 64998 tons the previous week [2] Russia Wheat - Russian agricultural consulting firm Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production by 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million tons, and noted severe weather in Rostov [2] International Oilseed Prices - Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 595 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Brazilian soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 451 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import soybean premium for the Gulf of Mexico (July shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for the US West Coast (July shipment) was 183 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (July shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, up 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

作者 | 闲彦 编辑 | 小白 全球贸易乱哄哄，特朗普的关税政策搅得投资者不得安宁，而他本人的一大政策就是死守传统能源、 对清洁能源说不。 比如他主张放松对油气开采的监管，个人的标志性口号"Drill, baby, drill!"（钻吧，宝贝，钻吧！）无 疑既想讨好油气领域的老金主们，又寄望这一政策能够压低油价，为通胀降温继而降息创造条件。 整整10年，杀不死你的，让你更强大。 50美元一桶，这是特朗普幕僚彼得·纳瓦罗给的目标价。 但是，能成为金主，智力自然是在线的，尤其是经历过自2014年以来的原油价格大跌甚至负油价，哪 怕是头猪，也该学到风险控制。 人教人，教不会，事教人，一次就够，尤其是记忆还热乎的时候。 美国的页岩油气开发商经过"生死劫"和各种兼并重组，早就转化成为一部部活脱脱的赚钱机器，现金 流成为核心考虑。 也因此，这类资产获得了包括巴菲特在内的诸多长期投资者的热烈追求。无他，便宜，黑乎乎的油就 是白花花的钱。 除了满足必要的资本开支、少见的并购机会，以及调整资本结构（还债），剩下的都分给股东，这就 是old money最喜欢的，不像是典型科技公司，全都拿去做回购，哪怕是持续高估。 在特朗普的号召 ...