燃料油方面当前市场交易逻辑仍主要围绕供应端展开:乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港口及海上物流导致年末出口减量, 委内瑞拉出口受阻对重质原油供应构成潜在干扰,短期内地缘因素仍将对价格形成一定支撑。但陆上库存及海 上浮仓均处于高位且继续累积,中期来看供应宽松仍是主要逻辑。疏燃料油方面,近期供应呈现增加趋势;丹 格特RFCC装置已进入检修,而阿祖尔CDU装置计划在年底前重启,两者均将带来边际供应增量。在此压力下，低 硫燃料油预计将延续弱势运行格局。据悉2026年第一批成品油1900万吨和低硫燃料油800万吨出口配额下发，规 模与2025年首批配额水平一致。 【沥青】 | 模 S = | | --- | | 4 72 15 | | 25 | | 1 1 | | . | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月25日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.c ...

年度报告——原油 油价寻底途中，等待供应潜力拐点 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 原油：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 年 12 25 | 2025 | 月 | 日 | [★Ta地bl缘e_冲Su突mm增a添ry]供应变数，供应受损预期暂有限 欧美扩大对俄罗斯石油企业的制裁范围，买家采购俄油出现新障 碍，但市场并未预期中长期俄罗斯供应显著下降，贸易流或在新 销售渠道建立后逐步恢复。短期制裁油买家受限导致浮仓库存上 升，买家局限性和运输效率下降约束消化速度。 和 ★全球需求维持低增速，区域间供需错配支撑柴油裂解 欧美汽柴油库存整体处于偏低水平，汽柴油需求平稳。中国实际 消费量增长持续受到新能源替代的打压，但低油价环境下，主动 补库需求预计仍有释放空间。市场对 2026 年全球需求增速维持低 增速预测，长期消费趋势变化导致增长前景改善空间受限。主要 市场柴油出口量下降及欧盟将生效的石油产品进口新规可能加 剧柴油区域间错配。 ★投资建议 展望后市，供应端仍有部分利空因素尚未充分计价，海上高库存 的转化和 OPEC+剩余闲置产能是否 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 【铜】 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限，社库窄幅波动，表观需求并无亮眼表现。近期宽松交易 延续，贵金属和有色多品种创新高，沪铝跟涨为主，圣诞节假期来临资金有离场迹象，沪铝在前高 位置仍具备阻力、多头背靠40日线持有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed macroeconomic environment affecting the tin market, with U.S. economic resilience and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle boosting market optimism, while inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions pose risks [1] - The LME tin price closed at $42,835 per ton, up $105, reflecting a 0.25% increase, while domestic Shanghai tin futures showed a decline, closing at 336,110 yuan per ton, down 5,570 yuan, or 1.63% [1] - The global macroeconomic landscape is at a critical juncture, transitioning from recession fears to a re-evaluation of growth and liquidity, but the market is expected to experience high volatility due to competing bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 2 - Supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts remain, but expectations of resumed production in Myanmar and normalized tin exports from Indonesia are easing previous price-driving fears [1] - Demand is facing negative feedback due to high prices, with traditional sectors like electronic soldering showing weakness, despite long-term positive prospects in emerging fields like semiconductors and photovoltaics [1] - The tin industry association has indicated that current tin prices are disconnected from fundamental market conditions, calling for a more rational market approach, which reflects a consensus against high prices and provides a negative outlook for market expectations [1]

说真的，年初 800 多一克的金价还历历在目，到现在 1400 元，年内涨幅都超 70% 了，周大福更是涨了快 68%。之前想攒钱买金镯、金项链的朋友，是不是 越看越纠结？想投资的也在琢磨，现在入手会不会高位站岗？ 不过分析师也说了，2026 年金价大概率还是震荡上行，要是美联储继续降息，说不定还能冲更高。但短期来看，金价已经处于超买状态，不排除会有小幅 回调。所以刚需买金的朋友，别追涨杀跌，遇到回调可以分批入手；投资的话，还是要多关注国际局势和美联储政策，别盲目跟风。 | 9-10 月 | 国际金价持续走高， 逼近 4000 美元 / 盎 | 普遍 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 미 | | | 12月19日 | 国际金价站稳 4300 美元 / 盎司上方 | 1350 | | 12 月 23 日 | 现货黄金升破 4468 美元 / 盎司 | 突破 | 其实 2025 年金价能涨这么猛，核心就三个原因。一是美联储降息预期越来越强，美元走弱让黄金这种不生息资产更吃香；二是全球地缘冲突没断，大家都 想靠黄金避险；三是各国央行都在疯狂囤金，2025 年前三季度全球央行净购金就有 634 吨， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议，投资 者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏，与本公司和作者无关。 客户端 12月22日，COMEX黄金大幅上冲，报收4480.6美元/盎司，涨幅2.13%。国内SHFE金夜盘开盘后明显走 高，随后高位震荡，报收1003.08元/克，涨幅1.60%。 美联储官员就明年降息预期继续产生较大分歧：美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示美联储仍有很 大降息空间；美联储古尔斯比表示11月通胀数据良好，对前置降息感到不安。尽管市场对美联储未来降 息空间并不乐观，但市场就美联储未来主席人选及2016年降息次数和扩表节奏展开讨论和定价，出于对 金融市场流动性和经济就业疲软，市场仍偏乐观看待。此外，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任 命新的美联储主 ...

家人们，今天行情太炸裂了！油价单日暴涨2.4%，伦铜今年已狂飙36%逼近1.2万美元，黄金更是直接 冲破4400美元历史新高！这"三巨头"的集体狂欢，是陷阱还是时代级的机会？ · 黄金：可分批配置，作为资产组合的"压舱石"，但忌追高。 · 原油：谨慎看待，除非供需格局发生根本扭转。 【关键数据】 · +2.4%：油价单日涨幅 三大品种，逻辑天差地别！ 1. 油价（地缘脉冲行情）：美国拦截委内瑞拉油轮，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯油轮，地缘冲突直接把供应风险 拉满！但帮主提醒：今年油价整体已跌五分之一，全球供应过剩才是核心底色，这波上涨的持续性存 疑。 2. 铜价（长期产业趋势）：这可能是最有看点的！贸易动荡导致铜涌向美国，叠加全球矿山停产和AI 数据中心、新能源带来的爆炸性需求，创造了2009年以来最大涨幅。这更像是长期产业趋势，而非短期 炒作。 3. 黄金（避险+货币双驱动）：在美联储降息预期和全球地缘紧张的双重引擎下，避险资金汹涌而入， 现货金单日大涨2.4%，势头强劲。 帮主20年中长线视角的核心策略： · 铜：逢回调布局，AI与绿色革命的需求是长期逻辑。 A. 铜（代表未来AI与绿色需求） B. 黄金（代表避险与 ...

◎记者 张骄 定投黄金，逐步成为河南郑州"90后"上班族小陈的理财习惯。今年9月，他在工商银行开通了积存金业 务并完成首笔交易，此后关注金价波动便成了他的日常。而小陈的经历，正是2025年全球黄金投资潮中 的一朵"浪花"。 行至年末，黄金市场的狂热没有消退。12月22日，现货黄金历史性地冲破4400美元/盎司大关。截至上 海证券报记者发稿时，其以年内近68%的耀眼涨幅，大幅跑赢其他主要资产，改写了全球资产的回报叙 事。 从投资者的"买金潮"，到机构的策略配置，再到全球央行的储备增持，黄金已从传统的"避险符号"，演 变为最具共识的核心资产。一轮新的财富故事，也随之铺开。 新老玩家众生相 2025年10月，在国际金价创新高之时，南京广告从业者徐珍妮（化名）跃跃欲试。她在每克930元左右 的价位入场，买入招商银行积存金（一种黄金投资的储蓄产品）。"美联储降息和地缘冲突的消息，让 我期待金价冲到每克1000元。"徐珍妮对上海证券报记者说。 市场的剧本演绎却没那么简单，随后的追涨加仓将她牢牢套住。每天频繁看盘，也让她心情跌宕起伏， 经常感到"坐不住"。 "没卖就是没亏！"她告诉记者。好在目前金价回升，让她庆幸11月时的 ...

12月22日，在周一欧洲早盘交易时段，国际金价再次展现其在全球金融动荡中的统治力，价格强劲拉升 并刷新了历史纪录。金丰来在观察市场波动时发现，现货黄金（XAU/USD）已稳步攀升至每盎司4300 美元附近的巅峰位置。这一波行情的爆发，不仅得益于美元汇率的持续走软，更深层的原因在于全球避 险资金的疯狂涌入，使黄金在长假前的清淡交投中脱颖而出。 从宏观基本面来看，美联储的政策转向预期是推动金价暴涨的"燃料"。随着近期美国发布的通胀数据超 预期放缓，加之就业市场报告呈现降温态势，市场对于货币政策放宽的呼声日益高涨。金丰来认为，利 率水平的下调预期直接削弱了持有黄金这种非营利性资产的机会成本，使得黄金在资产配置中的配置价 值大幅提升。同时，中东地区以色列与伊朗的冲突迟迟未见终结，叠加美委之间在能源与政治层面的摩 擦升级，这种地缘冲突带来的高度不确定性，迫使机构投资者寻求能够对冲极端风险的避险资产。 深入技术层面分析，黄金的上涨趋势结构依然完整且富有弹性。在4小时周期图表中，金价始终保持在 关键的100周期指数移动平均线（EMA）上方运行，布林带的明显扩张意味着市场波动性正在被多头引 导。金丰来认为，目前14日相对强弱 ...