国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：即将迎来大幅上涨 国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 观点 周末期间，伊朗与美国、以色列之间的地缘冲突已经正式升级，双方已经开始了数轮的导弹互射，同时伊朗开始着手准备封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这 意味着该地区附近的原油、成品油出口将陷入停滞。核心问题在于，伊朗和 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 瓶片：震荡偏弱 观点小结 2 02 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 01 上游观点汇总 策略 2）跨期：观望为主，单边大幅上涨后逢高月差反套 3）跨品种：暂无 风险 地缘冲突进一步激化，关税政策变化 本周短纤观点：地缘影响成本，短期偏强，波动加大 供应 工厂复产重启中，直纺涤短平均开机负荷至74.4%，棉型负荷在84.4%，后续预计进一步上行 需求 下游仍在复工中，终端对出口需求有所期待。静态来看，纱线、坯布环节的成品库存中性，原料库存大多在15-20天。2月20日美国最高法院 否决特朗普政府全球性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. The short - term geopolitical sentiment drives up crude oil prices. The short - term trend of the crude oil market depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical products follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil. It is recommended to use a long - short hedging strategy, going long on products with strong fundamentals (such as PX, PTA, EB) and short on those with weak fundamentals (PP, EG, plastics). For soda ash and PVC, which have a low correlation with oil, a short - selling strategy can be adopted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The short - term logic is centered on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment pushes up prices, but the probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 471. It is recommended to wait and hold small - position 04P440 options if available [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. Exports are expected to increase, providing support on the demand side [6][9]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 7700. It is recommended to wait and observe [9]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventory is high, domestic production is recovering rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy of going long on EB and short on BZ [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 6295. It is recommended to wait and observe, and set a stop - loss at 6295 if entered the market the day before [12]. (4) Rubber - Logic: In the short term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction. Due to the seasonal factors and the cost - driven increase from crude oil, natural rubber shows a passive upward trend. However, the medium - term upward logic is not strong, and it is recommended to hold a short - term long position or a long - matching position, but a medium - term short position [14][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 16250. It is recommended to wait and observe [16]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tires is poor, and the fundamental pressure is increasing. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics [17][20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen close to a short - term low. The short - term pressure is at 13220. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 13350 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The intraday trading is within the 7050 - 7500 range. It is recommended to wait and observe [24]. (7) PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 5160. It is recommended to wait and observe [25]. (8) PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with reduced positions. The short - term pressure is at 6730 - 6770. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6770 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: It shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. The restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring may bring high import pressure, but the geopolitical sentiment during the holiday adds uncertainty. The upward space depends on the resolution of the Iran issue [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 2270. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 2265 [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The high - inventory and high - premium pressure of the 05 contract is difficult to change, and the price is more likely to fall [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 3780 - 3800. It is recommended to wait and observe, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 3800 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 6830 - 6860. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6860 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: It is in a situation of oversupply. New production capacity has been released during the Spring Festival, and demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 1180 - 1190. It is recommended to hold short positions and set a take - profit at 1190 [38]. (13) PVC - Logic: It has a low correlation with oil and is in a situation of oversupply. Inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the real - estate market is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 5010. It is recommended to hold short positions, take half - profit actively, and set a stop - loss at 5010 for the remaining half [40].

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-27 沙特供应收紧，进口成本保持坚挺 市场分析 1、2月26日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4500；东北市场，3670-4100；华北市场，4180-4450；华东市场，4200-4400； 沿江市场，4560-4780；西北市场，4050-4250；华南市场，4600-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷670美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5106元/吨，涨62元/吨，丁烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷650美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨，丁烷4954元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 25日晚间沙特juaymah NGL设施突发故障，导致Ras Tanura码头3月部分装船计划被取消，外盘纸货维持强势行情， 国际市场偏紧、进口成本较高的局面延续，国内化工装置利润或将受到进一步压制。除了意外的不可抗力外 ...

黄金期货主力合约价格报每盎司5194.20美元，下跌0.61%。 来源：央视财经 微信编辑| 七三 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。专 用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com 本文字数：245，阅读时长大约1分钟 美伊核谈判的展开，缓解了投资者对地缘冲突的担忧情绪，国际金银价格周四下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所白银期货主力合约价格较前一个交易日下跌3.74%，报每盎司87.584美 元。 2026.02.27 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai silver futures is high - volatility shock, and the medium - term strategy is to go long on dips without chasing high prices [3]. - A - shares showed an overall oscillating market, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. - Gold should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a bearish bias, considering supply and demand and market trends [12][13]. - Glass should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise due to its supply - demand pattern [18]. - Paper pulp has several potential positive factors, including the risk of a French pulp mill's bankruptcy, the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai silver opened high and closed with a gain of over 4.57%, mainly due to the sharp rise of the overseas market during the Spring Festival and the subsequent catch - up in the domestic market. In the short term, it will oscillate widely between 70 - 100 US dollars per ounce in the London silver market, corresponding to a core support of 19,000 yuan per kilogram and a strong resistance area of 25,000 yuan per kilogram in the domestic market. In the medium term, the logic is bullish, supported by the supply - demand gap, industrial demand recovery, and macro - economic factors [4][5]. A - shares - The overall A - share market showed an oscillating trend on the day, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. Gold - Affected by the overseas market's rise during the holiday, gold opened significantly higher and oscillated throughout the day, and should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments are normal, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the long - term due to the mine's production capacity release. On the demand side, although steel mills' resumption of production after the festival may drive demand, the start of terminal demand still needs time. Technically, the bearish trend remains [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the factory inventory has increased again during the holiday due to the seasonal off - season. The resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival needs attention. The trend is unclear in the near term, and it should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. Methanol - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise because its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases. The domestic methanol plant operating rate remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports after the festival, which suppresses prices [18]. Paper Pulp - There are three positive factors for paper pulp: the potential bankruptcy of a French pulp mill (to be verified in March), the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21].

关注今日美伊日内瓦谈判结果 行情综述： 油：原油依旧呈现地缘与基本面的分化态势，且短期逻辑完全聚 焦伊朗问题。短期地缘情绪继续推升原油上行，假期期间美伊两轮谈 判未有大幅进展，同时中东美军继续增大部署，美军中东军事力量已 达 03 年伊拉克以来最大规模，已完成中等规模空中打击行动的前置 准备，市场继续提前定价地缘冲突。但目前海外 polymarket 平台上 的 2 月底前打击伊朗概率依然不高，开战的高成本与高风险和协议达 成对中期选举的利好权衡依然在影响特朗普决策，对特朗普来说达成 协议依然是最能"赢"的选项，美军中东军事集结既是军事选项的前 置准备也是特朗普极限施压的一环。市场提前进行地缘溢价计价后原 油盘面短期走势将完全由伊朗地缘解决路径决定。协议解决与冲突发 生将形成急跌修复与急涨两种路径。目前谈判主动权在美，留给伊朗 的谈判筹码不多，关键仍在伊朗能否接受特朗普要价。抛开局势失控 的极端情景仍以等待降温高空机会为主。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2604 小时图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 受地缘情绪从原油传导至丁二烯带来成本端向上驱动，短期需关注伊 朗问题发展路径。 ...

一、基本面： 地缘冲突方面，伊朗外长阿拉格齐率领伊朗代表团抵达瑞士日内瓦，参加即将于26日举行的伊美第三轮谈判。在阿曼斡旋 下，伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判将于26日在日内瓦举行。美国和伊朗第二轮间接谈判17日在日内瓦举行。美伊官员在谈判 结束后均表示，尽管分歧仍存，但谈判较上一轮取得进展，双方同意继续接触。美国近期在中东地区大规模集结兵力。美 国总统特朗普近日承认，他在考虑对伊朗进行"有限军事打击"。美国中东问题特使威特科夫表示，特朗普政府要求伊朗在 未来任何核协议中接受协议"无限期有效"，不得设定到期条款。知情人士称，威特科夫表示美方谈判的前提是"没有日落条 款"，伊朗必须长期遵守协议义务。 在大多数去年推行的全球关税被最高法院推翻后，美国总统特朗普不但要保住他已构建的关税壁垒，还可能变本加厉，趁 机提高已达成协议的关税水平。欧美贸易协议的稳定性面临新考验。据美东时间25日周三的媒体报道，欧盟估算，按照特 朗普的新关税计划，美国将对42亿欧元、约合50亿美元的欧盟出口美国商品征收更高的关税，税率超过欧美贸易协议所设 的上限15%。在新关税机制下，包括奶酪、黄油、部分农产品以及若干塑料制品、纺织品和化学品在内的 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-26 局部现货下跌，市场观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、2月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3335元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌27元/吨，跌幅 8.03%；持仓12489手，环比下跌4630手，成交11862手，环比下跌8388手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3700元/吨；山东，3280—3320元/吨；华南，3220—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3300元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格基本持 稳。节后国内成交氛围较淡，沥青现货市场观望情绪浓厚。目前市场主要矛盾来自于成本端，原油端短期定价则 集中在地缘层面。本周美国与伊朗双方即将举行新一轮谈判，需要重点关注。如果谈判进展不顺，美伊冲突升级， 美国对伊朗采取军事行动，造成伊朗甚至波斯湾供应中断，则将构成巨大的上行风险。反之，如果局势缓和，原 油以及下游商品将逐步回归基本面定价，沥青虽然原料切换后成本有所上移，但终端消费的疲软仍将抑制价格的 上行空间。 策略 单边：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势发展 跨期：无 跨 ...

全球植物油供应充足。2025/2026年度全球植物油产量将达到2.32亿吨，略高于消费量，呈现小幅过剩态势。 分类别来看，棕榈油供需基本平衡。印尼和马来西亚的产能扩张持续推进，2026年产量有望达到7800万吨； 豆油方面，美国、巴西大豆产量创新高，豆油供应保持充足，预计达到6200万吨；菜油方面，加拿大、欧盟 菜籽油产量稳定增长，全球供应将超过3100万吨。 图为全球植物油供需情况 植物油板块资金以持续性流入为主。美国大豆出口需求强劲，中国等主要买家采购积极性提升，生物柴油政 策持续发酵，豆油工业需求预期上升。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新报告（截至2026年2月 10日当周），投机基金持有大豆净多单76427份，较前一周大幅增持79851份，实现从净空到净多的彻底反 转，这是投机基金连续第二周增持芝加哥大豆类净多单，显示市场情绪正在快速转向乐观。持仓变动对应的 资金量巨大，表明机构投资者对美豆油未来价格走势的信心显著增强。 春节长假期间，美伊谈判进展波折，国际原油期价持续上涨。同时，美国生柴配额标准将在3月初敲定，推动 美豆油期价攀升至60美分/磅，马来西亚棕榈油价格跟随美豆油和国际原油走强 ...