Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, negatively impacting the crude oil market. The downstream polyester industry's operating load has room to decline, leading to accelerated PTA inventory accumulation and a drop in PTA prices. Despite the decline in the PX - naphtha spread, PX fundamentals remain resilient. The PTA industry in China is expected to maintain high production, providing strong support for PX demand. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback effect on PTA [2]. - MEG: After a long - term slump in the overseas ethylene glycol market, a decrease in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. A production - line switch at a factory in Jiangsu has led to a contraction in supply, creating room for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price increased from 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, to 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, with a change of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: The PTA - SC spread increased by 55.09 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0164. The PTA主力期价 increased by 58.0 yuan/ton, while the PTA现货 price decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton. The现货 processing fee decreased by 35.7 yuan/ton, and the盘面加工费 increased by 32.3 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 remained unchanged at 3767 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR中国PX price increased by 6, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 21 [2]. - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25.0, FDY150D/96F price decreased by 25.0, DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged. The long - filament sales rate increased from 18% to 24%. The 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 66% to 65%. The semi - light slice price remained unchanged. The slice sales rate increased from 54% to 78% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 85.92% - PTA开工率 remained at 75.63% - MEG开工率 remained at 62.48% - Polyester负荷 remained at 79.76% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is tentatively planned to restart in early March [2].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 沥青： （杜冰沁，从业资格号：F3043760；交易咨询资格号：Z0015786） 周二，上期所沥青主力合约BU2603收跌1.72%，报3309元/吨。昨日BU受到油价影响继续下跌，跌幅有 所收窄。进入2月中上旬，北方地区多为下游备货为主，多数炼厂低产，库存水平低位，南方地区部分 套利需求尚可，进入春节期间，终端及交通运输停滞，整体炼厂库存水平呈上升趋势，同时社库的压力 也会进一步加大。近期沥青相对成本端原油波动较小，裂解价差有一定修复，基差方面，受到弱需求现 实的限制，各地区基差有明显走弱。从1-2月的燃料油进口来看，炼厂在积极寻找替代原料，但考虑到 经济性和沥青出率，不排除后续炼厂排产或有一定调整。近期BU受到成本端原油扰动较大，关注油价 波动和后续原料进口。 橡胶： （邸艺琳，从业资格号：F03107645；交易咨询资格号：Z0021445） 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周二油价重心上移，其中WTI 3月合约收盘上涨1.07美元至63.21美元/桶，涨幅1.72%。布伦特4月合约收 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].

Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻 辑。不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值， 在油价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 2月3日午后，中证石化产业指数延续上行趋势，成分股涨多跌少，浙江龙盛、光威复材、和邦生物等领 涨。相关ETF方面，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）获资金逢低布局，连续19个交易日合 计"吸金"14.13亿元，最新份额达16.56亿份，最新规模16.16亿元。 25年12月以来美国政府相继加大对俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗等产油国的限制力度，原油供应端也开始出 现实质性受损，OPEC+提供的增产缓冲也有所退坡。上周伊朗地缘局势继续发酵，布伦特油价上涨重 回70美元/桶附近。尽管油价出现近5%回调，但整体产能过剩或在下半年迎来更实质性地改善，将有望 为油价提供边际成本指引和中枢上移机会。 东方财富证券认为，2026年，石油化工行业面临宏观油价博弈与国内产业深刻变革的双重背景。一方 面，原油市场在供需基本面趋弱与地缘风险事件的拉锯下宽幅震荡；另一方面，国内产业在"十五五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

消息面上，新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社2日报道，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。此外，伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社2日报道，一名知情人士确认，伊朗与美 国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟通，"将观察事态如 何发展"。 俄乌局势方面，当地时间2月2日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认， 将于当地时间 2 月 4 日至 5 日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。 截至夜盘收盘，沪银期货主力合约 "20CM" 跌停。伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格大跌。国际油价大跌。 早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 aq2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | -19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 205 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1045.0元/克，下跌3.86%。 国际黄金价格报4834.5美元/盎司，上涨3.91%。 凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，其长期鹰派立场及"降息+缩表并行"的政策倾向，动摇了市场对美 元单边贬值的押注。市场预期未来流动性收紧，美元走强，黄金作为无息资产吸引力下降，引发多头集 中平仓，直接触发黄金40年来最大单日跌幅，后续仍将影响市场对美联储政策的定价逻辑。 2. 前期暴涨后获利盘集中平仓与杠杆踩踏 2026年开年黄金累计涨幅超24%，白银涨幅超60%，市场积累大量获利盘。叠加全球交易所紧急上调贵 金属交易保证金，高杠杆投机盘被强制平仓，形成"下跌→强平→加剧下跌"的负反馈循环，放大短期跌 幅，推动黄金短期内回撤超11%。 3. 地缘局势缓和削弱黄金避险需求 特朗普称正与伊朗进行对话，此前支撑黄金上涨的中东地缘避险情绪边际降温，资金从黄金等避险资产 中撤离。尽管全球央行购金等长期支撑逻辑未变，但短期避险买盘收缩，加剧了黄金价格的回调幅度， 后续地缘动态仍将成为黄金波动的重要触发因素。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 声明 ...

2.2黄金操作策略参考： 周一（2月2日）亚市时段，现货黄金震荡下行，现交投于每盎司4700美元附近，日内跌幅约3%，此前 一个交易日跌幅近10%；现货白银同样震荡下行，现交投于每盎司83.48美元附近，日内跌幅约1.25%， 此前一个交易日跌幅近27%。国际金价在刷新历史高位后出现明显回调，美国政治不确定性阶段性缓解 成为主要触发因素。市场对美联储独立性担忧降温，削弱了此前支撑金价快速上行的核心逻辑。尽管如 此，地缘局势紧张及全球央行持续增持黄金，仍为金价中长期走势提供支撑。短期内，金价或进入高位 震荡与技术性修正阶段，等待新的宏观催化信号。 美联储独立性风险的下降，直接削弱了黄金此前快速上涨的重要逻辑基础，触发部分多头资金获利了 结，金价因此承压回落。从宏观环境看，市场情绪的变化也反映出风险溢价的阶段性回吐。在美联储政 策可信度暂时企稳的背景下，美元与美债收益率的潜在稳定性上升，使黄金相对于其他资产的吸引力短 期内有所下降。即将公布的美国ISM制造业PMI数据，成为市场观察经济基本面与货币政策预期的重要 窗口，数据结果可能进一步影响黄金的短线方向选择。尽管短期承压，黄金的中长期支撑逻辑并未消 失。地缘政治 ...