Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻 辑。不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值， 在油价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 2月3日午后，中证石化产业指数延续上行趋势，成分股涨多跌少，浙江龙盛、光威复材、和邦生物等领 涨。相关ETF方面，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）获资金逢低布局，连续19个交易日合 计"吸金"14.13亿元，最新份额达16.56亿份，最新规模16.16亿元。 25年12月以来美国政府相继加大对俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗等产油国的限制力度，原油供应端也开始出 现实质性受损，OPEC+提供的增产缓冲也有所退坡。上周伊朗地缘局势继续发酵，布伦特油价上涨重 回70美元/桶附近。尽管油价出现近5%回调，但整体产能过剩或在下半年迎来更实质性地改善，将有望 为油价提供边际成本指引和中枢上移机会。 东方财富证券认为，2026年，石油化工行业面临宏观油价博弈与国内产业深刻变革的双重背景。一方 面，原油市场在供需基本面趋弱与地缘风险事件的拉锯下宽幅震荡；另一方面，国内产业在"十五五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

消息面上，新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社2日报道，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。此外，伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社2日报道，一名知情人士确认，伊朗与美 国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟通，"将观察事态如 何发展"。 俄乌局势方面，当地时间2月2日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认， 将于当地时间 2 月 4 日至 5 日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。 截至夜盘收盘，沪银期货主力合约 "20CM" 跌停。伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格大跌。国际油价大跌。 早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 aq2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | -19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 205 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1045.0元/克，下跌3.86%。 国际黄金价格报4834.5美元/盎司，上涨3.91%。 凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，其长期鹰派立场及"降息+缩表并行"的政策倾向，动摇了市场对美 元单边贬值的押注。市场预期未来流动性收紧，美元走强，黄金作为无息资产吸引力下降，引发多头集 中平仓，直接触发黄金40年来最大单日跌幅，后续仍将影响市场对美联储政策的定价逻辑。 2. 前期暴涨后获利盘集中平仓与杠杆踩踏 2026年开年黄金累计涨幅超24%，白银涨幅超60%，市场积累大量获利盘。叠加全球交易所紧急上调贵 金属交易保证金，高杠杆投机盘被强制平仓，形成"下跌→强平→加剧下跌"的负反馈循环，放大短期跌 幅，推动黄金短期内回撤超11%。 3. 地缘局势缓和削弱黄金避险需求 特朗普称正与伊朗进行对话，此前支撑黄金上涨的中东地缘避险情绪边际降温，资金从黄金等避险资产 中撤离。尽管全球央行购金等长期支撑逻辑未变，但短期避险买盘收缩，加剧了黄金价格的回调幅度， 后续地缘动态仍将成为黄金波动的重要触发因素。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 声明 ...

2.2黄金操作策略参考： 周一（2月2日）亚市时段，现货黄金震荡下行，现交投于每盎司4700美元附近，日内跌幅约3%，此前 一个交易日跌幅近10%；现货白银同样震荡下行，现交投于每盎司83.48美元附近，日内跌幅约1.25%， 此前一个交易日跌幅近27%。国际金价在刷新历史高位后出现明显回调，美国政治不确定性阶段性缓解 成为主要触发因素。市场对美联储独立性担忧降温，削弱了此前支撑金价快速上行的核心逻辑。尽管如 此，地缘局势紧张及全球央行持续增持黄金，仍为金价中长期走势提供支撑。短期内，金价或进入高位 震荡与技术性修正阶段，等待新的宏观催化信号。 美联储独立性风险的下降，直接削弱了黄金此前快速上涨的重要逻辑基础，触发部分多头资金获利了 结，金价因此承压回落。从宏观环境看，市场情绪的变化也反映出风险溢价的阶段性回吐。在美联储政 策可信度暂时企稳的背景下，美元与美债收益率的潜在稳定性上升，使黄金相对于其他资产的吸引力短 期内有所下降。即将公布的美国ISM制造业PMI数据，成为市场观察经济基本面与货币政策预期的重要 窗口，数据结果可能进一步影响黄金的短线方向选择。尽管短期承压，黄金的中长期支撑逻辑并未消 失。地缘政治 ...

此外，2月1日印度、沙特股市均出现明显下跌。印度为预算案安排股市特别交易时段，印度Nifty 50指 数盘中一度大跌超700点，跌幅接近3%，其中金属股集体下挫，NIFTY金属指数跌幅一度超过5%，印 度斯坦铜业跌超13%，印度斯坦锌业跌近10%。同日，沙特股市创下近八个月来最大跌幅，沙特全指一 度跌近2.6%，全球金属抛售潮波及当地矿业股，原材料生产商领跌，矿业公司AMAK大跌9.93%，沙特 阿拉伯矿业公司跌9.51%。 2月2日早盘，全球多个品类资产同步出现大幅波动。贵金属市场延续此前跌势，现货白银日内跌幅一度 近8%，最低触及79美元/盎司；现货黄金同步下行，截至7:30报4718美元/盎司。上周五，贵金属市场已 出现史诗级暴跌行情。 国际原油市场同样低开，美油、布油双双跌超2%，分别报63美元/桶和67美元/桶。近期原油价格曾因市 场担忧美国可能对伊朗发动军事打击出现上涨，央视新闻报道，当地时间2月1日，"欧佩克+"成员国同 意维持暂停增产政策，3月不再提高原油产量。 加密货币主要币种持续下挫，Coinglass数据显示，截至北京时间2月2日7:10，比特币跌破77000美元关 口，报76459美元 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上下跌 50 元至 6274 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6320 元/ 吨（-65），华南瓶片价格 6350 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1401 手至 5.72 万手，空头持仓减少 964 手至 6.06 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 29.9 万吨，环比-0.52 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 64.6%，环比-1.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5813 元， 环比+269 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-48 元/吨，环比-7 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，或+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 ...

张尧浠：金价牛市偏技术性跳水、短期将迎筑底反弹修复 黄金市场上周：国际黄金创历史记录性涨幅后，又创历史记录性大跌，最终收取巨长上影线倒垂形态，对于后市来讲，有再度陷入阶段性见顶调整的预期， 以及数周的横盘震荡整理的趋势。但整体的牛市趋势依然有效，每次阶段性的调整，在当下来看，依然还是再度的入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于5005.58美元/盎司，并先行连续攀升，于周四进一步录得当周高点5595.97美元后，大幅跳水后，剧烈震荡，并到周五时段， 又显史诗级跳水行情，收复当周涨幅的同时，还进一步跌至4588.52美元当周低点，最终有所震荡回升，收于4860.31美元，相对于前周收盘价4982.08美元， 周振幅613.89美元，收跌121.77美元，跌幅2.44%。 影响上，受地缘局势不确定性再度升级，以及市场对于1月底前美国政府停摆的担忧，再加上特朗普威胁对加拿大韩国等加征关税威胁，和对于美元的进一 步言论等等，助力金价先行攀升冲击历史高点； 但由于地缘局势有所缓和，美联储决议保持利率不变，鲍威尔也未提及降息，暗示后市在5月份之前都不会降息，再加上美股市场的连续暴跌，也引发了贵 金属的获利弥补，同时，在 ...