Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market declined under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tariff concerns, despite the warming of interest - rate cut expectations during the week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term technical pattern is weak and under pressure. The report suggests maintaining the idea of buying on dips [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, gold prices in the precious metals market declined, and silver prices were volatile. Geopolitical tensions eased as the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East calmed down, reducing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The trade tariff deadline was postponed, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund positions: The SPDR Gold ETF's weekly holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 954.82 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's weekly holdings increased by 115.91 tons to 14,866.18 tons. - Short - term fund positions: As of June 24, according to the CFTC report, gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts to 195,004 contracts, and silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 4,227 contracts to 62,947 contracts. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.3 tons to 1,152.3 tons, COMEX silver inventory increased by 112.7 tons to 15,523.5 tons, SHFE gold inventory increased by 69 kg to 18.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 65.43 tons to 1,295.7 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1,357.8 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. - Events: The US Senate will vote on the "Great Beauty" bill, and several Fed officials will give speeches. The COMEX precious metals trading will end early on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday [4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - SHFE gold main contract price was 766.4 yuan/gram, down 1.15%; SGX gold TD price was 763.08 yuan/gram, down 1.32%; CME gold main contract price was 3,286.1 dollars/ounce, down 1.66%. - SHFE silver main contract price was 8,792 yuan/kg, down 0.05%; SGX silver TD price was 8,748 yuan/kg, down 0.28%; CME silver main contract price was 36.165 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%. - CME gold - silver ratio was 90.8641, down 0.61% [6]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 97.2616, down 0.05%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1643, unchanged. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 43,819.27 points, up 1%; WTI crude oil spot price was 65.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.43%. - LmeS copper 03 price was 9,896 dollars/ton, up 1.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 0.7%; 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.01%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.56%, unchanged [17].

张尧浠：避险减弱降息升温、黄金走低下方空间有限 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度回落走低收跌，并收线至5-10周均线下方，打破了近数周的震荡上趋势支撑，同时附图指标信号高位死叉看空发展，暗示后 市将有望继续走低进一步触及中轨线支撑或更低的目标。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3389.20美元/盎司，变先行录得当周高点3395.88美元，之后遇阻回落，周二进一步走低一度触及3300美元下方，虽周三周四 止跌震荡回升，但多头力度未能持稳加强重返阻力上方，使得周五时段再度面临抛售压力，并跌破60日均线支撑，录得当周低点3256.07美元，最终有所 止跌回升，收于3273.18美元，周振幅139.81美元，收跌116.02美元，跌幅3.42%。 影响上，受周末地缘局势的升级而高开，但动力未能持续，其特朗普称伊以将实现全面停火，以及后续市场对于中东局势认为是在"表演"而避险情绪反应 减弱，再加上鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息，称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，打压金价转回落连续走低； 虽然受到60日均线支撑附近的买盘推动，以及特朗普表示将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席，令市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，有所止跌震 荡，但受到技术阻 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

Economic Outlook - The US is at the tail end of an economic recovery cycle while entering a new AI technology phase, with capital expenditure in the AI sector stabilizing[3] - Short-term market impacts are expected to be limited, with focus remaining on economic cycles, tariffs, fiscal policies, and geopolitical situations in the second half of 2025[3] Tariff Analysis - As of May, US tariff revenue was $22.17 billion, annualizing to approximately $266 billion, significantly lower than Navarro's estimate of $600 billion[3] - The weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, potentially generating $665.91 billion in annual tariff revenue based on 2024 import levels of $4.1 trillion[3] - Tariff impacts on inflation may begin to manifest in Q3, with historical data suggesting a high pass-through rate to consumers[3] Fiscal Stability - The overall fiscal impact from the "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to be limited, with a projected increase in the federal deficit of approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but most of this will not materialize in 2025[3] - The expected interest expenditure in May was $86 billion, indicating significant ongoing fiscal pressures[3] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is not substantial, reducing concerns over debt sustainability in the near term[3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to significant inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions[3] - Two scenarios are outlined: one where escalating tensions lead to higher oil prices and potential stagflation, and another where stabilization allows for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on volatility trading strategies using tools like VIX and SIV, and considering domestic companies benefiting from reduced foreign competition due to tariffs[3] - In a stagflation scenario, commodities like gold may perform well, while in a shallow recession scenario, small-cap growth stocks and long-term US Treasuries may be favored[3] Risk Factors - Global economic performance may underperform expectations, leading to pressure on US equities and other risk assets[3] - Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting plans[3] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could trigger rapid market volatility and inflationary pressures[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dual influence of easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for interest rate cuts on gold prices [3][4][11] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have temporarily eased, leading to a significant reduction in gold's safe-haven demand, particularly after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [3][11] - The market is currently experiencing a cautious outlook on the economy, reflected in the slight decline of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 4.3% [1][4] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 74.9%, driven by weak U.S. economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP [4][10] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, theoretically supporting gold prices; however, concerns over "stagflation" are diminishing this positive effect [5][11] - The upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index is expected to be a key catalyst for breaking the current price range of gold, with a higher-than-expected reading potentially reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates [10][11] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates a fluctuating pattern for gold prices, oscillating between $3,300 and $3,340, with market sentiment remaining cautious [7][11] - The market is closely monitoring the core PCE data, initial jobless claims, and Q1 GDP final data, as these indicators could influence gold's safe-haven demand and price movements [10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA data showed a draw of over 1 billion barrels in US commercial inventories, and global oil product inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The crude oil monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching 2022 levels. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are highly amplified by geopolitics [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - A source said Russia is willing to support a new round of oil production increase at the July 6 OPEC+ meeting if deemed necessary, and they are considering another production increase in August [5] - On June 25, US President Trump said the US will hold talks with Iran next week, believed the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended but might resume, and stated the US won't give up pressuring Iran or take over oil [5] - According to the Wall Street Journal, Shell is in early talks to acquire BP [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decline [5] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6] - In the week ending June 20, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Price Data - From June 19 to June 25, WTI crude oil prices changed from an unspecified value to 64.92, with a change of 0.55; BRENT prices changed from 78.85 to 67.68, a change of 0.54; DUBAI prices changed from an unspecified value to 69.12, a change of - 0.01. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper prices may oscillate and rise, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, lead prices are relatively strong, zinc prices are affected by multiple factors with large fluctuations, tin prices will oscillate in a short - term, nickel prices may decline, lithium carbonate prices fluctuate narrowly, alumina prices will oscillate weakly, and stainless steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation [2][4][5][7][8][10][12][14][16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.65% to $9727/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78720 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78000 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 21000 tons [2]. - Market: The copper raw material market is tight, and low inventories may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2566/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20345 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2530 - 2590 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 651000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 44000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.15 to 326500 tons [4]. - Market: Low inventories may push prices up, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 1.32% to 17181 yuan/ton. Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is limited by weak domestic consumption [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, and downstream consumption is weak. High smelting rates and other factors support the price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.50% to 22017 yuan/ton. Market fluctuations are large due to repeated geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased to 7200 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Geopolitical events may affect zinc ore exports [7]. Tin - Price: On June 25, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263000 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. It is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and LME tin will oscillate between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand is in the off - season. The upstream and downstream are in a stalemate [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that SHFE nickel will operate between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M will operate between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. - Market: Downstream cost - profit inversion affects the price of nickel ore. Nickel iron, intermediate products, and nickel sulfate prices are under pressure [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 59977 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60880 yuan, up 0.30%. It is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. - Market: There are many news - driven factors, but marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost are limited [12]. Alumina - Price: On June 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.48% to 2909 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term [16]. - Market: Market demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction [16].

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with Trump claiming that military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, although tensions may resurface soon [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's fluctuating statements, leading to volatility in trading [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced fluctuations, with a low of 3312 and a high of 3340, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The current trading strategy suggests maintaining a low position with expectations of a potential breakout above 3355, which could lead to significant upward movement towards 3385 and 3430 [5][6] - The domestic gold price is around 782, with expectations of reaching 795, indicating a bullish trend [6] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a rebound from the support level of 35.2, currently trading around 36.4, with a target of 36.5 for profit-taking [6] - A strategy is suggested to prepare for short positions near 37, following the previous trading pattern [6] Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil showed weak performance, with a support level at 64, indicating limited upward movement unless influenced by market news [7] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone adjustments but is still expected to trend upwards, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [8]

能源化工日报 2025-06-26 2025/06/26 原油早评： 能源化工组 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/26 甲醇早评： 甲醇 6 月 25 日 09 合约涨 12 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货涨 10 元/ 吨，基差+259。地缘局势降温，原油大跌，甲醇盘面跌近 5%，外围风险逐步消散，后续预计价 格波动率将逐步回落，市场逐步回归自身供需基本面。近期甲醇的上涨使得其估值大幅抬升， 下游利润被大幅压缩，受海外因素影响，预计国内 8 月份进口相对有限，09 合约前港口难以大 幅累库，盘面基差维持强势。总体来看，国内供应维持高位，需求短期尚可，后续需求仍有走 弱风险，整体矛盾有限，单边参与难度较大，建议观望为主。 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.07 美元，跌幅 0.11%，报 64.94 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.21 美元，跌幅 0.31%，报 67.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.20 元，跌幅 1.00%， 报 515.7 元。 ...