马来西亚贸易部长：任何贸易协议都将支持美国与马来西亚的贸易平衡。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - **Export and Inventory**: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].

近期，美国市场人士表示，可再生化学品在降低美国以及全球化学品生产碳足迹、促进可持续性和支持 循环经济转型方面潜力巨大。然而，高成本、气候变化和政策不确定性正威胁着这一进程，甚至让市场 参与者产生挫败感。经过对可再生化学品的再审视，市场人士认为，可再生化学品的未来在于外部政策 和产品性能。 在页岩气革命前，可再生化学品被视为美国利用本土丰富资源应对石油储量下降、增强能源安全并减少 对产油区地缘政治风险依赖的重要途径。近年来，可再生化学品又被视作振兴美国农村经济、发挥生物 技术基础设施优势及降低燃料化学品生产碳强度的工具。但据美国农业部数据，经过数十年研发投入， 可再生化学品产量仍不足美国化学品总产量的2%。许多技术领先企业因高昂资金成本、漫长市场培育 周期、规模化技术壁垒、现有产品竞争力以及政策波动而折戟。近期，尽管行业期待技术进步和气候变 化紧迫性能推动更多产品规模化，但可再生化学品领域已显露降温迹象，例如Danimer Scientific申请破 产、耐斯特集团放弃可再生化学品优先战略、项目实质性落地案例稀缺。其中，Danimer因生物塑料聚 羟基脂肪酸/聚乳酸销售疲软和扩产成本过高陷入流动性危机，其资产6 ...

Core Insights - Chengdu is emerging as a hub for the gaming industry in China, particularly for single-player games, with a significant number of game studios and talent relocating to the city [1][3][4] - The success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" has highlighted Chengdu's potential, with one-third of the most notable domestic single-player games being developed there [3][4] - Chengdu's gaming industry has a strong foundation due to early investments in talent and infrastructure, dating back to 2003 when the city began promoting the gaming sector [4][5] Industry Overview - Chengdu ranks first in job postings for the gaming industry among top cities in China, according to a report by Zhilian Recruitment [1] - The city has produced a notable number of acclaimed games, with 9 out of 30 highlighted titles in a recent media review originating from Chengdu, surpassing other major cities like Guangzhou and Beijing [3] - The gaming industry in Chengdu benefits from lower living costs and salaries compared to first-tier cities, making it an attractive location for game development [6][7] Cultural and Economic Factors - Chengdu's cultural environment and lifestyle contribute positively to game development, fostering creativity and work-life balance [6][8] - The city has been recognized for its livability, being named one of the "most happy cities" for 16 consecutive years, which enhances its appeal to young professionals in the gaming sector [7][8] - The local gaming industry is characterized by a mix of traditional and innovative themes, with studios exploring both Chinese cultural elements and international narratives [3][6]

棉价上方压力仍然较大，驱动偏弱 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、国际棉花市场分析 （1）全球 2025/26 年度棉花总体供给宽松 美国农业部 6 月供需报告中，2025/26 年度，全球棉花产量、消费量、期初 /期末库存和贸易量均下调。全球棉花产量调减超过 80 万包，中国产量增加， 印度、美国和巴基斯坦产量减少。全球消费量调减超过 30 万包。全球期末库 存减少近 160 万包，全球库存消费比环比下滑 0.2 个百分点，同比下滑 1.1 个 百分点。 综合来看 USDA6 月报告显示，全球供需弱平衡，产销差扩大 11 万吨至-17 万的，但未来 USDA 还将逐渐将调整供需数据。 2 图 1：USDA 全球棉花产销差（万吨） （数据来源：同花顺 Ifind） 图 2：全球棉花库存（万吨） （数据来源：同花顺 Ifind） （2）美国棉花供给宽松，天气状况良好 据美国农业部 USDA 发布的 6 月供需报告，将 2025/26 年度美国棉花产量、 期初库存和期末库 ...

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平对《证券日报》记者表示，目前，银行竞相降低经营贷利率是一种阶段性营销策略， 一方面，是响应宏观调控政策，推进实体经济融资成本稳中有降；另一方面，是商业银行基于细分市场的研究，抢抓优质资产 和客户的举措。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉对《证券日报》记者表示，银行竞相降低经营贷利率，可缓解小微企业融资贵问题。但是可能 催生"资金空转"风险，个别企业将低息贷款用于理财套利的现象也值得警惕。 本报记者 彭妍 当下，商业银行纷纷将业务重心转向小微企业经营贷领域。记者了解到，近期，包括工商银行、建设银行、交通银行、招 商银行、江苏银行在内的多家银行相继推出年化利率3%及以下的经营贷产品，利率水平较前期明显下探。 国有大行中，交通银行的个人经营性贷款优势显著：最高额度达1000万元，最低年化利率2.2%，授信期限最长10年，为有 大额、长期经营资金需求的客户提供了有力支撑。 建设银行针对细分行业客群推出"商户云贷""首户快贷""云税贷""商叶云贷"等小微信贷产品，年利率低至3%。据建设银行 客户经理透露，申请该产品需满足多项基本条件：企业完成工商登记并保持正常经营状态、信用状况良好，同时需持有建 ...

红海地缘风险发酵，推升油价反弹 一、日度市场总结 截至2025年7月7日的原油市场呈现多空交织特征。SC原油期货价格小幅回 落0.24%至502.3元/桶，但日内盘后主力合约反弹2.13%至512元/桶；WTI微 跌0.06%至66.46美元/桶，Brent则逆势上扬1.59%至69.6美元/桶，反映欧 洲市场供需偏紧格局。关键价差指标剧烈波动：Brent-WTI价差单日走强 56%至3.14美元/桶，创近月新高；SC-Brent跨区套利空间收窄77%至0.41美 元/桶，中国原油期货溢价大幅压缩。 供给端扰动持续发酵，OPEC+拟于8月3日批准9月增产55万桶/日，但增产落 地效果存疑。袭击事件成为关键变量，以色列空袭胡塞武装控制的荷台达 港石油设施（涉及伊萨角港储罐区），该港口占也门原油进口量70%，战事 升级加剧红海航线供应链风险。需求侧印度市场提供支撑，6月汽油消费同 比激增6.9%，柴油需求同步回暖，燃料总消费攀升至2031万吨，亚洲炼厂 开工意愿增强带动裂解利润走扩，低硫燃料油主力合约日内涨幅达2%。 库存结构呈现区域性分化，美国库欣库存未见明显波动，但中东局势紧张 或延缓原油海运周期，叠加红海运 ...

ERN WE HIST 宏观专题报告 云上于天:经济再平衡 2025年下半年宏观经济、政策与市场展望 · 核心结论 "云上于天"指的是,一件事情或者一个问题的时机尚未成熟,需要耐心等 待,积蓄力量,寻求突破。2023年中我们在《复苏还是修复?一当前经济 修复式增长下的政策选择与市场判断》的深度报告中判断,疫情之后的一段 较长时间,中国经济的状态可能不是复苏,而是修复式增长。过去几年,中 国经济一直在修复式增长的框架内运行。今年4月2日特朗普大幅超预期的 对等关税政策恰似天空中的一片乌云,加大了中国经济修复式增长的难度, 也加剧了中国经济供强于需的局面。中国经济内外部再平衡迫在眉睫. 无论 是短期的"反内卷"政策,还是未来"十五五"期间实现更加平衡的供需框 架,都在向着经济再平衡的方向前进。如果政策如期推进,实现经济再平衡, 那么中国经济修复式增长的框架将被打破,当下宏观价格下行压力将逐步缓 解,中国资产收益率将得以提升,资本市场才能迎来全新的局面。 分析师 S0800522070002 13911826169 bianquanshui@research.xbmail.com.cn 刘奕 S0800522080 ...

尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 你有没有发现，俄罗斯缓过劲儿来之后，转头就对中国下手了？ 我第一次看到那个弹性关税政策，脑子直接卡了三秒。不是因为政策有多复杂，而是这个时间点、这个力度，实在让人不好不多想。2025年才刚开年，中俄 贸易额就同比下降了6.6%。尤其是汽车和能源这两个压舱石，双双滑坡，说不急是不可能的。 我后来想通了一点：不是中国突然对抗，而是现实逼着你不得不算账。谁在关键时刻拎不清，谁就得先吃亏。 我查了下，问题出在俄罗斯那边的出口政策。俄方宣布对大部分商品施加弹性出口关税，税率和卢布挂钩。这话听着耳熟，其实和去年乌克兰局势激化时的 那套稳汇率打法如出一辙。但这次不同，以前中俄之间还算有默契，这次没打招呼，俄罗斯就直接把化肥这种重要物资的出口税提到10%，算不算变脸，你 自己判断。 石油、天然气是暂时没进清单，但影响已经显现出来了。2025年第一季度，中国从俄罗斯进口原油2431万吨，同比直接砍掉了14.7%。这是一个什么概念？ 原油不是大白菜，能砍掉这么多，说明不只是采购量问题，而是战略态度变了。 那俄罗斯为啥突然这么搞？说白了 ...