【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑，库存去化 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 3 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内偏强。期货盘面数日反弹，现货成交继续增量， 随着订单的增多，部分工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂报价范围多在 1620-1680 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产 拉开序幕，内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减 产，目前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢 低拿货为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目 前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素 价格预计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库 存维持去化，且本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，基本面及下游积极性尚 可，可支撑盘面进一步走强。 2025 年 12 月 3 日，尿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral neutral, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main drivers. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [1][8] - The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the current high inventory is a major issue [7][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Overseas supply: In 2026, the nominal new foreign production capacity is 1.65 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.62 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of about 0.8%. The total import increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.37 million tons, with an import growth rate of about 9.6% [5] - Domestic non - integrated production: In 2026, the nominal new non - integrated production capacity is 1.2 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.98 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Demand increment: The new external - purchase methanol MTO devices will increase the methanol demand by 2.2 million tons/year after weighted by commissioning time, with a demand growth rate of 13.8%. In 2026, the new production capacity of traditional downstream industries will increase the nominal methanol demand by 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual demand increment is 2.5 million tons/year, driving the methanol demand growth by 7.9% [6] 3.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main factors. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [8] 3.3 Methanol Annual Balance Sheet Estimation - 2026 MTO and traditional downstream commissioning boost demand, and the high - level inventory is expected to be cleared. The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate [15][21] 3.4 Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis - New external devices: In 2026, the pressure of new overseas methanol production capacity is not significant. The nominal new production capacity is 1.65 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate weighted by commissioning time is about 0.8% [22][23] - Overseas existing devices: In 2025, the Iranian methanol supply showed a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The winter maintenance at the end of 2025 was late, and the actual maintenance duration needs attention. Non - Iranian supply also had different performance in different regions [25][26][31] - Internal - external price ratio: In the context of high port inventory, the import was in an inverted state, and the overseas premium performance was average [43] - Port inventory: In 2025, the port inventory reached a historical high. The winter maintenance of Iran was later than expected, and the inventory pressure in December 2025 continued. The inventory in different regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China all reached historical highs [49] - MTO new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning plan of external - purchase MTO is the highest since 2020, mainly including Shandong Lianhong Phase II and Guangxi Huayi. The integrated MTO mainly focuses on the commissioning plan of CCM Yulin Phase II in Q3 of 2026 [64] - MTO existing devices: In 2025, the operation of external - purchase MTO was acceptable. The maintenance was not concentrated, and the loss gradually recovered after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [70][72] - Regional price difference: Pay attention to the sustainability of the window for port methanol to flow back to the inland [79] 3.5 Inland Supply - Demand Analysis - Inland methanol new situation: In 2026, the domestic commissioning pressure is not significant. The planned commissioning is 5.13 million tons/year, but non - integrated methanol devices are only 1.1 million tons/year [83] - Inland existing device load: Coal - based maintenance is mainly seasonal, and the winter maintenance of gas - based devices is still slow [90] - Non - integrated coal - based: The profit of coal - based methanol was good in the first three quarters of 2025, and the operation was acceptable [91] - Natural gas - based: The winter maintenance of southwest gas - based devices was late in 2025 [97] - Coke oven gas - based: Pay attention to the maintenance of coking enterprises. The operation of coke oven gas - based methanol has a certain long - term correlation with the coking operation rate [99][103] - Inland inventory: In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises decreased compared to 2024, and the inventory of east - China enterprises increased after October [105] - Traditional downstream performance: In 2025, acetic acid entered a loss and production - reduction stage after concentrated commissioning, while MTBE performed well driven by exports [109] - Traditional downstream new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning scale of traditional downstream industries is still considerable. The nominal new methanol demand is 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual new demand is 2.5 million tons/year [122][125]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The follow - up of reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer demand have improved the short - term supply - demand situation in the market. Urea is currently in a low - valuation state, and the improvement in supply - demand has accelerated enterprise inventory reduction. The basis and the spread between months have strengthened, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [12]. - The overall demand has improved due to the combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The supply remains relatively high, enterprise profits are gradually recovering but still at a low level, and the demand side shows seasonal recovery. The inventory reduction speed of enterprises has accelerated. With export policies and cost support, the downside space for urea is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Reserve demand and increasing compound fertilizer demand have improved short - term supply - demand. Urea is undervalued, and the improvement has accelerated inventory reduction. The basis and spreads have strengthened, with prices expected to rise [12]. - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 83.71%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining. The daily output is 20.34 tons, at a high level compared to the same period last year. The enterprise's advance orders are 6.65 days, a 0.47 - day week - on - week decrease, and new orders have slowed down after the price increase [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.06%, a 2.45% week - on - week increase, showing seasonal growth. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has risen and then fallen. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Valuation**: The current domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton week - on - week decrease, driven by domestic reserve demand and export preparations. Port inventory is 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and future port collection is expected to increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production has improved overall demand. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of various futures contracts and domestic spot markets have changed. For example, the 09 contract price has increased by 23 to 1757, and the Shandong spot price has increased by 30 to 1670 [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis in some regions has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8 to - 66 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Profits remain at a low level, including fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production profits [29]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory has remained stable. Future port collection is expected to increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: It has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year. The overall operating rate is 83.71%, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining [12][40]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing or planning maintenance, which will affect production [43][45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: The monthly consumption shows certain trends and seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate is seasonally increasing, and production profits have also improved [52][53]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources show certain trends [56]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate and profit situation are presented, and the export volume also shows certain changes [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood and the situation of the real - estate market (such as housing starts, completions, and sales) are related to urea demand [67][70]. - **Export**: The export profit is high, and the export volume shows certain trends [77][78]. 3.6. Option - Related - **Urea Options**: Data on option positions, trading volumes, PCR ratios, and volatility are presented [88][96]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The characteristics of the urea industry chain and the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions and countries are summarized [99][106].

Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,820 yuan/ton, with a -1.68% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 741,463 lots, and the open interest was 507,882 lots, compared to 478,054 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,980 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,781 lots, a change of -269 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 90,600 - 96,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,200 - 92,500 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,195 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions [1]. - Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, and the current focus is on the coefficient. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with lithium spodumene and salt lake being the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [1]. - In terms of demand, in the power market, both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles are growing rapidly; in the energy storage market, supply and demand are both booming, and supply remains tight [1]. - The Natural Resources Ministry has issued a notice on the change registration (including renewal) and license application for the non - oil and gas mining rights of the Zhenkouli in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in Fengxin County. It is expected that the subsequent resumption of production will accelerate, but the actual resumption progress still needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. The production from lithium spodumene and mica increased slightly, while the production from salt lakes decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to a total of 115,968 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. The consumer side has shown good performance recently [2]. Strategy - Inventory is continuously being depleted, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the demand from the power battery end will decrease, while the energy storage end will remain at a high level. Attention should be paid to the extent of the weakening in the power sector [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, options, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils is running weakly, with limited inventory reduction. The production of plate mills is stabilizing, but the supply is climbing to a high level and the inventory pressure is still large. Demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak, causing the coil price to continue to be under pressure. However, there is support from low valuation and cost, and it is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in shock. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Hot - rolled coil weekly production is 319.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 tons, and a decrease of 4.55 tons compared with the end of last month. The production is at a high level and climbing. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a decrease of 0.63 percentage points compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 0.18 percentage points compared with the same period [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons and a decrease of 11.67 tons compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 4.62 tons compared with the same period. The demand of the downstream cold - rolling industry has unsolved contradictions, and the improvement of external demand is limited, so the demand toughness is likely to weaken [1] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 400.90 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.21 tons and a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 95.18 tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory is 78.02 tons, unchanged from last week, an increase of 0.36 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 0.37 tons compared with the same period. The social inventory is 322.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.21 tons, a decrease of 6.05 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 95.55 tons compared with the same period [1]

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - On the institutional trading leaderboard, 34 stocks were listed, with 12 experiencing net buying and 22 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Saiwei Electronics (CNY 441 million), Haike New Source (CNY 133 million), and Leike Defense (CNY 100 million) [1][2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Saiwei Electronics announced that its subsidiary, Sailex Beijing, has successfully passed customer verification for a MEMS-OCS product and has received a purchase order, initiating small-batch trial production of 8-inch wafers [2] - Haike New Source signed a three-year supply agreement with Kunlun New Materials to supply electrolyte solvents from 2026 to 2028 [4] Group 3: Industry Trends - The price of lithium carbonate has surged over 60% in the past six months, driven by supply-demand imbalances and inventory depletion, with the main contract recently surpassing CNY 100,000 per ton, reaching a new high since June 2024 [3] - A recent implementation plan from six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, including areas such as elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.13%. During the roll - over period, trading volume remained stable while open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation is still weak, putting pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.27%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, and demand has weakened, with weak fundamentals, putting pressure on the coil price. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly with a daily increase of 0.44%. Both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, but ore demand is weakening, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the profit of state - holding enterprises was 1849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4432.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1484.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; and that of private enterprises was 1699.56 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%. The mining industry's profit was 712.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 4505.03 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%; and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 732.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition. It pointed out that the problem of disorderly price competition in some industries is still prominent, and some enterprises fail to implement the requirements for standardizing price competition, and there are still behaviors disrupting the market price order. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - In October, the procurement costs of coking coal and iron ore varieties increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in coking coal; the costs of pig iron, scrap steel and alloy varieties decreased month - on - month. From January to October, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline of major varieties narrowed compared with January - September. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in October was 1321.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 54.12 yuan/ton or 4.27%; the cumulative average procurement cost from January to October was 1257.28 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 573.84 yuan/ton or 31.34% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3210 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3289 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3290 yuan/ton and 3230 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the national average decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2080 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The coil - rebar price difference was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap price difference was 1130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 799 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 808 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.73 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/ton; from Brazil was 24.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 US dollars/ton [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume was 753,252 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the open interest was 1,069,617 lots, a decrease of 131,083 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume was 379,233 lots, an increase of 76,467 lots; the open interest was 876,319 lots, a decrease of 58,870 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 199,651 lots, a decrease of 2,318 lots; the open interest was 414,346 lots, a decrease of 5,496 lots [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][29] 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 1.88 tons month - on - month, with a slight contraction in supply. However, the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency daily trading has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry is weak, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.00 tons month - on - month, with supply rising at a high level and high inventory pressure. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 4.20 tons month - on - month, but it is still at a relatively high level. The contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and external demand improvement is limited, so demand resilience is likely to weaken. It is expected to continue the bottom - seeking through fluctuations, and attention should be paid to steel - mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and terminal ore consumption has declined. The average daily pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and combined with production - restriction disturbances, iron ore demand continues to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipment of overseas miners has decreased, but both are at high levels this year. External ore supply is positive, and domestic ore production is stable, with ore supply remaining at a high level. Short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, but demand is weakening, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].