Report Title - Plastic Industry Daily Report 2026-01-07 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6460 and the pressure around 6760. The total inventory of PE maintains a de - stocking trend with little pressure. Oil - based process costs decrease and losses are reduced, while coal - based process costs remain stable and profits are repaired. In January, new domestic PE production capacity continues to increase, and low - priced overseas resources continue to flow in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. The demand for agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand for packaging film is limited and difficult to form demand support [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6642 yuan/ton, with a change of 63. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices are 6430 yuan/ton (change: 101), 6642 yuan/ton (change: 63), and 6687 yuan/ton (change: 69) respectively. The trading volume is 566498 lots (change: 108635), and the open interest is 505678 lots (change: - 2207). The 1 - 5 spread is - 212 (change: 38). The buy orders, sell orders, and net buy orders of the top 20 futures positions are 430624 lots (change: - 1454), 496022 lots (change: 6601), and - 65398 lots (change: - 8055) respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China is 6542.17 yuan/ton (change: 61.3), and in East China is 6603.95 yuan/ton (change: 53.26). The basis is - 99.83 (change: - 1.7) [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 56.74 US dollars/barrel (change: 1.44), the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 534.25 US dollars/ton (change: 11.75). The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 726 US dollars/ton (change: 0), and in Northeast Asia is 746 US dollars/ton (change: 0) [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.23% (change: 0.59%) [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.41% (change: 0.19%), 30.17% (change: - 0.5%), and 38.95% (change: - 4.91%) respectively [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 17.83% (change: 0.34) and 14.13% (change: 0.26) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene are 14.32% (change: 0.58) and 14.31% (change: 0.55) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE factory operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 4.91% to 38.95%, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.19% to 48.41%. As of January 2, the PE factory inventory was 37.07 tons, a decrease of 19.17% from last week, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.76% from last week. From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton, the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton. Recently, the 250,000 - ton device of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - **Strategy View**: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Guangzhou experienced a decline in both transaction volume and prices in 2025, with a 20% drop in transaction revenue and a similar decrease in property prices [1] - The total number of second-hand residential transactions reached 108,812 units in 2025, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but still 32% higher than in 2022 [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes was 26,420 yuan per square meter, marking a 6.7% decline and the lowest level since 2021 [3] Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - In December 2025, the number of second-hand residential transactions was 8,787 units, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 4.4% [3] - The market showed stability in second-hand transactions due to price adjustments, which attracted buyers from the new home market [3] - The average monthly transaction volume for second-hand homes in the first half of 2025 was 9,436 units, the highest in three years [3] Group 2: New Housing Market - In 2025, the total number of new residential transactions was 63,755 units, down 10.6% year-on-year, with an average price of 34,438 yuan per square meter, a 4% decrease [5] - The inventory turnover period for new homes reached 24.5 months, the highest in five years, indicating a slowdown in market activity [5] - The average price in the Tianhe district for new homes increased by 6% to 80,143 yuan per square meter, driven by the introduction of luxury projects [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The market is seeing a concentration of transactions in the 90-130 square meter range, indicating a demand for larger, improved living spaces [4] - The Guangzhou leading price index fell to 631.6, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease, with inventory levels reaching a historical high of 138,000 units [4] - The luxury market saw a 25% decrease in transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan, with an average price of 89,438 yuan per square meter, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of mismatch between production and demand still exists. Polysilicon shows a strong and wide - range oscillation, while industrial silicon prices oscillate within a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with cost maintaining support [1][4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 57,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton, waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer [4][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Situation Review - Industrial silicon: The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of the main contract on the futures market first fell and then rose. The overall profit level is relatively average. The consumption side has a slight decline, and the inventory may maintain a slight accumulation. - Polysilicon: The supply side decreased slightly in December. The downstream prices increased, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand recovery have not been fundamentally resolved. The price increased slightly in December, and the futures market first rose and then fell [4][5][6]. 2. Supply - side Data - **Industrial silicon**: As of December 25, the total number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces was 796, and the number of open furnaces increased by 23 compared with November. The overall furnace - opening rate was 30.53%. The monthly output increased significantly compared with the previous month. The expected supply is expected to weaken. The import volume from January to November 2025 decreased by 64% year - on - year [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The total output in December was about 115,000 tons. Some leading enterprises reduced production at the end of the year, and the output decreased to match the demand due to factors such as industry self - discipline and the traditional off - season of demand [4]. 3. Consumption - side Review - **Industrial silicon**: In December, the downstream demand continued to tighten. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the organic silicon start - up rate declined, and the aluminum alloy industry mainly purchased on demand. The export volume in November 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the gradual consumption of inventory, the replenishment demand is expected to be released, but the overall consumption side will decline slightly [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices increased. The domestic silicon wafer production in December decreased by 19.3% month - on - month, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The battery cell production increased in September. The component price continued to oscillate, and the production in December was about 38.7GW, with the production schedule in January expected to decline slightly [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Basis Analysis - **Industrial silicon**: The current basis is about 340 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the basis expanded. It is expected that the 553 basis will oscillate around 400 yuan/ton in January 2026, and the 421 basis will oscillate around 850 yuan/ton. The reverse - spread strategy between the January and February contracts can be concerned [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The current N - type dense material average price is at a discount of - 6420 yuan/ton to the futures main contract. Due to the influence of the establishment of the platform company and the expected storage policy, the basis has continued to expand. If the policy has no obvious progress, the basis is expected to be strong but show a recovery state, moving towards - 4000 yuan/ton [11].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of finished steel is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with a focus on shock consolidation [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the market will focus on market games and marginal supply and demand, with a view of range-bound fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - In the Yunnan-Guizhou region, short-process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid-to-late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, one of the six short-process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills will stop production around mid-January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Yesterday, finished steel prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continue to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, with an intraday amplitude of over 13%. The main contract opened high and moved high, then quickly fell back, hitting the daily limit of 117,400 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of over 8%, closing at 118,820 yuan/ton. Trading activity significantly rebounded, with trading volume increasing to 689,000 lots, and positions continued to shrink to 512,000 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, indicating a looser market supply expectation [2] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 118,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was -820 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. In the market transaction, due to a slight improvement in the rigid demand procurement gap, the price center continued to move up with rigid demand transactions [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month-on-month, with the supply side steadily releasing but at a slower pace. On the demand side, short-term demand slightly decreased, while long-term demand was firmly supported. SMM data showed that last week, the output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% month-on-month respectively, and inventories decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% month-on-month respectively, continuing to decline. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% month-on-month and increased by 39.1% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales increased by 7.22% month-on-month, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% month-on-month, showing a high year-on-year increase [3] - In terms of inventory, last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% month-on-month and increased by 1.97% year-on-year, with the de-stocking slope slowing down. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month-on-month and 27.30% year-on-year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% month-on-month, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year-on-year, indicating that the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices weakened marginally [3] - Policy-wise, the short-term regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, combined with the focus on energy storage in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuation of new energy vehicle trade-in subsidies to support long-term supply and demand. With the release of market speculation sentiment and increased regulatory control, the futures price may maintain a range-bound consolidation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of precious metals has ebbed, but the copper price still has strong support due to tight supply in the copper industry and potential downstream consumption recovery. The aluminum price has a strong support as well, with low inventory and possible consumption increase after price decline. Lead shows a supply - demand weak pattern, and low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up. Zinc's fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin's supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields. Nickel's short - term price bottom may have emerged. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. Alumina's supply - side reform needs actual production cuts. Stainless steel may rise if the nickel ore supply quota tightens. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly volatile [2][5][8][11][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The London copper rose 0.45% to $12,187 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,060 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,450 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 21,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the copper price has strong support. If the price continues to adjust, downstream consumption may improve. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan per ton, and for the London copper 3M is $12,000 - 12,500 per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The London aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,950 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,320 yuan per ton. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and possible consumption recovery support the price. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan per ton, and for the London aluminum 3M is $2,920 - 2,980 per ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.40% to 17,477 yuan per ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The primary lead supply is loose, the secondary lead supply is contracting, and the lead market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up, but the exit of long - positions may impact the price [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.34% to 23,271 yuan per ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are weak. The exit of long - positions may impact the price [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.17% to 334,590 yuan per ton. The supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan per ton, and for the overseas London tin is $39,000 - 43,000 per ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.81% to 126,080 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rose [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price bottom of nickel may have emerged. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan per ton, and for the London nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,000 per ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.03%, and the LC2605 contract fell 8.96% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.04% to 2,720 yuan per ton. The inventory of futures decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.35% to 12,910 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Policy expectations drive up raw material prices and inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.94% to 21,590 yuan per ton, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and supply disturbances [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of the liquor industry, with the Wind liquor index declining by 0.24% despite a strong rebound from Shui Jing Fang, which saw a weekly increase of 6.87% [1][2] - The beer sector experienced significant declines, with major brands like Yanjing Beer and Huichuan Beer seeing stock price drops exceeding 3% this week, and Yanjing Beer turning from gains to a year-to-date decline of 1.27% [1][4] - The stock performance of liquor companies was varied, with only Shui Jing Fang and Zhen Jiu Li Du showing notable increases, the latter achieving a weekly rise of 10.75% and a year-to-date increase of 34.59% [2][3] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis indicates that leading liquor companies are prioritizing stable operations for 2026, focusing on inventory reduction, price recovery, and demand-driven sales, with upcoming policies for the Spring Festival being key indicators [3] - Yanjing Beer is actively pursuing digital transformation, expanding new retail channels, and enhancing brand marketing to improve its competitive edge, despite recent stock price declines [4][5] - Experts suggest that Yanjing Beer needs to enhance its brand recognition to compete more effectively with Qingdao Beer, as the gap lies in brand awareness rather than product quality [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming the overall market indices [2][15] - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with exports totaling 56,500 tons, significantly exceeding previous years [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances and promote high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9% [2][15] - The top-performing sub-industries included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [2][18] Key Industry Dynamics - TDI exports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 506,300 tons, a 56.2% year-on-year increase [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association's initiative aims to optimize investment decisions and enhance innovation in the polyoxymethylene sector, anticipating a total capacity of 1.51 million tons per year by 2025 [3] Investment Themes - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics [8] - Leading chemical companies are anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, with recommendations for companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9]